Coronavirus Megathread

[JohnErle]

I'll probably never make it past the 90-day trial, but the chance to watch a bunch of early Louis Malle films (and the Toxic Avenger) for a measly $1 seemed like money well spent.

[numbersix]

Not sure if the UK and US/North American have different lineups, but as of today the list inlcudes films by Cocteau, Kleber Mendoca Filho, Melville, Park-Cahn Wook, Bergman, and a few strong foreign language films. Maybe over here it's more like The Criterion Channel.

[JohnErle]

Yeah, we're definitely seeing a different line-up, but it's still pretty Criterion-y apart from the Troma films, but Criterion does have their Godzilla.

I'm seeing 5 films from Louis Malle, a bunch of stuff from last year's Berlinale, Ilo Ilo, and a bunch of obscure art house stuff from all over the world. There's also a rental section where you can get stuff like Old boy and Lady Vengance for 5$ each.

[Spectre]

Sony just pushed all their summer releases... how long are they expecting this to last?

[W]

I don’t see the regular box office numbers returning for at least 18 months, if ever. Culture is going to change post pandemic in a lot of ways. Fear will keep them away even if it’s misplaced, like a fear of mice, spiders, snakes even if they’re not venomous or plague ridden. People won’t want to pack in like sardines unless it’s something huge (sports championship, Avengers film, etc). Most films won’t make the bulk of their money in the theater anymore.

We were on this path already with streaming, but this scare might push the trend a decade in the span of a few months.

[Buscemi2]

Some of Sony's summer films looked like busts anyway. Who exactly is going to want to see Ghostbusters: Angry White Man Edition with Finn Wolfhard in the Bill Murray role? And Morbius just seems like the Spider-Man spinoff no one asked for (also, Jared Leto's already unpopular with the comic book community for his Joker).

Peter Rabbit 2 and Escape Room 2 had already been pushed back despite Box Office Mojo listing otherwise.

Meanwhile, Greyhound's been on the shelf but could do well at any date as it's Tom Hanks.

As for pandemics killing movie theatres, I'd be more worried about sporting events and tourism. If pandemics kill those communal events, we'll be living in Ernest Cline's dream, where no one goes anywhere, the 80's never ended, and people destroy their own and other people's lives on some stupid video game.

[numbersix]

I don’t see the regular box office numbers returning for at least 18 months, if ever. Culture is going to change post pandemic in a lot of ways. Fear will keep them away even if it’s misplaced, like a fear of mice, spiders, snakes even if they’re not venomous or plague ridden. People won’t want to pack in like sardines unless it’s something huge (sports championship, Avengers film, etc). Most films won’t make the bulk of their money in the theater anymore.

We were on this path already with streaming, but this scare might push the trend a decade in the span of a few months.

I dunno, I think people will be so sick of self-isolation that they'll flock back to any public event at first. Getting people to self-isolate has been incredibly difficult. Most nations in europe had to start fining people to get the message across.

If there's a reluctance to hit cinemas I could see chains making efforts to lure them in - discounted prices, deals, even free movies.

But yeah, even at an optimistic rate (restrictions lifted in June) a lot of businesses, including cinemas, are going to go bust.

[Buscemi2]

I have a friend in New York (who's six months pregnant, just got married, and has a history of health issues) who talked about how a lot of New Yorkers are ignoring the suggestions and having four-on-four streetball tournaments and/or doing street performing on her Instagram. She might be braver than me for the fact that she's still gardening during all this.

As for me, I have not left my house in two weeks, except to attend to the garage/makeshift screening room. There's nothing to do out there and I don't want to face people (especially panic buyers, whom I view in the same way as sovereign citizens and doomsday preppers).

Meanwhile, I have a feeling the studios might end up rescuing a lot of the theatre chains. As it's gotten easier and easier in the States for studios to own theatres (even Netflix has taken over some of Los Angeles's non-profit theatres), they could very well be the best hope. I also expect a merger of some sort to occur (my best guess: Cinemark buys Regal from Cineworld).

[transformers2]

Like everything surrounding the virus, people's willingness to attend massive public gatherings once we're finally in the clear is difficult to predict. A boom as a result of cabin fever or extended shunning due to fear of another wave of the outbreak both seems equally likely to me. As six said, the only certainty is that many small businesses aren't going to survive this crisis.

Sony's moves make complete sense, regardless of how long this shit lasts. Say the social distancing measures in place work very well and theaters re-open late June/early July, there's likely going to be a soft re-opening followed by a run of the titles that were slated to come out before everything shutdown (A Quiet Place 2, Mulan, possibly Black Widow). There's also the ripple effects on the titles that were still in production/about to film, so having an early 2021 slate loaded with films that were (conceivably) pretty deep into post-production when shit hit the fan in the States/most of Europe is a forward-thinking move that I would expect more studios to follow in the coming days/weeks.

[Buscemi2]

I'm thinking Disney will place Mulan at July 17th. Tenet's not going to be a big moneymaker while Bob's Burgers apparently never began production (the film's still listed in July but has no director listed). They lose the IMAX screens but it becomes a good counterprogramming film.

A Quiet Place Part II I'd expect to go to September 25th, moving Without Remorse to 2021. Summer will be too soon for a film about societal collapse.

Who knows about Black Widow. It would be best to keep away from Wonder Woman, which will make money at any date. Maybe July 1st or 3rd (Free Guy looks like a bomb and should be placed in a dump week)?

[numbersix]

Agree with all those replecement dates suggestions, Boosch. Or Black Widow could do July 10th as well.

[JohnErle]

Once the rampant paranoia dies down, I suspect that things that can't be replicated at home, like live music, travel, and sporting events will recover reasonably quickly, but cinemas might be slower to rebound. It seems like studios are rushing movies to VOD sooner than ever so if people get used to the convenience they might wonder why they're rushing to the theatres to see B-movies like Bloodshot.

I had tickets to see both Steve Earle and Jason Isbell for later this year, and assuming the shows go ahead at some point I still have every intention of going, and unless I'm on lockdown I'll be going somewhere warm next winter, but apart from supporting my favourite indie theatres I'm no hurry to return to a mulitplex.

[Screen203]

I'm thinking Disney will place Mulan at July 17th. Tenet's not going to be a big moneymaker while Bob's Burgers apparently never began production (the film's still listed in July but has no director listed). They lose the IMAX screens but it becomes a good counterprogramming film.

A Quiet Place Part II I'd expect to go to September 25th, moving Without Remorse to 2021. Summer will be too soon for a film about societal collapse.

Who knows about Black Widow. It would be best to keep away from Wonder Woman, which will make money at any date. Maybe July 1st or 3rd (Free Guy looks like a bomb and should be placed in a dump week)?

Why do you see Tenet underperforming? There's no stars in the film, but that didn't hurt Dunkirk (which had celebrities in the ensemble, but the main cast was mostly unknowns). The budget is very large, but I expect Warner to actually market it unlike most of their films from last year.

And if Free Guy is R, I could see it doing okay - I expect Hitman's Bodyguard and King Of Staten Island to move (and Zola to take the same date Hustlers did), leaving only Barb And Star as raunchy comedy competition a month later.

[Chienfantome]

I went out of my appartment today, just down my building to walk down the stairs (and up afterwards) and walk a bit on the parking lot of my building, I hadn't set foot outside my appartment in 12 days. That felt good.

[Leestu]

Hey Chien, if you don't mind my asking, what did you do about food, especially short life staples like milk, bread, and fresh veggies? Did you bulk buy and freeze ahead of time? I've been staying home for ten days now but either me or my wife still go just down the street to our local shops for food every few days...no sugar yesterday apart from individual sugar sachets.