Will "Bumblebee" Suprise at the Holiday Box Office?

[NicodemustheSage]

This is in-line with what I'm hearing from folks who have seen the film. I have real concerns, tho, that even excellent word-of-mouth will be able to resurrect this franchise from its long-gestating burnthrough.

https://io9.gizmodo.com/bumblebee-will- ... 1830985099

--Nico.

[Spectre]

I think it’ll do well enough but it’s going to be tough to break out. Spiderverse, Aquaman and Mary Poppins all seem to be highly regarded and that’s not to mention the other stuff that’s still out there. It’ll be tough to fight through that much noise.

[NicodemustheSage]

Yeah, sadly I suspect even with its pedigree, "The Mortal Engines" is going to get a bit lost among the other fare this season. So tough for novel IP to break out, especially with tentpole releases coming at the rate of two to three per week this time of year.

--Nico.

[Screen203]

Yeah, sadly I suspect even with its pedigree, "The Mortal Engines" is going to get a bit lost among the other fare this season. So tough for novel IP to break out, especially with tentpole releases coming at the rate of two to three per week this time of year.

--Nico.

Mortal Engines definitely seems like something that will be lost in the holiday shuffle. That and Welcome to Marwen will be the flops of Christmas.

[W]

What does Marwen have to do to be considered a "flop?" HSX has it at $40 M, BoxOffice.com has it at $22 M. I'm thinking The Mule is the adult oriented film this year, but Marwen should be in theaters a long while.

As for Bumblebee, I can't stand the Transformers franchise. The trailers always make me want to see them and they are always horrible. I went to the first one thinking it would be good. I watched the second one. For the fourth one I thought, "Great. All new people. Wahlberg is acceptable in everything he does outside of real life. TJ Miller is hilarious (pre problems). And there's fucking robo-dinosaurs?!?!?!" Well what happened? Walberg is shit. TJ Miller is killed off in less than thirty minutes. And the dinosaursdon't show up until like ten minutes left in the movie.

Now it's Bumblebee in a movie that seems more character driven. It seems like it'll be charming and why not give it a shot. Fucking Transformers!

[transformers2]

Like Spectre said, Bumblebee looks like it's going to be the 4th option at the holiday box office behind Mary Poppins, Aquaman and Spider-Verse. However, it's more grounded approach paired with the flurry of good early reviews its received should still be enough to get plenty of butts in the seats, especially during the Christmas/New Year's frame where theaters are crowded as hell. Do I think it's going to turn into a bonafide sensation a la the first few Bay films? Probably not, but it has a legit shot to outgross The Last Knight ($130 mil) domestically.

[NicodemustheSage]

Put me down for "Downsizing"-sized numbers for "Marwen", a high-concept film with a powerful, resonant, and timely message about trauma, resilience, grief, and survival with another in a long recent string of potential Oscar-worthy performances for rising talent Carrell -- who is rapidly becoming the next point on the arc forged by Tom Hanks and Robin Williams -- that Uni has NO idea how to promote and which will divide audiences expecting to see a comedy, instead of a raw but whimsical odyssey of physical harm and mental damage. Expect an A- CinemaScore and mixed reviews that praise Carrell's performance but criticize the film for being too experimental, cerebral, and uncomfortable, especially in the age of #MeToo. Call it a $5M-6.5M opening and total Box Office somewhere from $26M-$42M. There will be an Oscars campaign, but "Marwen" is unlikely to earn more than a couple-three noms. Another disappointment for Zemeckis.

I would define that as a "flop".

--Nico.

[Buscemi2]

I don't even think Marwen will get an A- Cinemascore. It seems to have strayed way too far from the source material (the documentary Marwencol) and become a bizarre fantasy film about a guy (it feels like Zemeckis made him less of a victim and more some incel type) in love with Real Dolls. Downsizing had a C Cinemascore. I'm expecting a B-. Box office wise, I'm going to say under $25 million. Box Office magazine I think has it at $22 million and that sounds about right.

And the first reviews are out of Aquaman and they seem to be mixed (but better than Justice League). Rotten Tomatoes is fresh but Metacritic is a 53 (with a lot of 60's in there). On the other hand, The Playlist and Indiewire didn't like it and that often seems to mean the film is better than it's made out to be.

Meanwhile, The Mule was not screened to critics. For a film that was getting so much awards buzz a few months back, this is not a good sign for commercial or critical success.

[NicodemustheSage]

I have a different take on why "The Mule" isn't being screened for critics. It's Clint's last film, and he doesn't much want to talk about that. I don't expect it to be a part of the marketing campaign, either. He wants the film to stand on its own, unimpacted by any offscreen rhetoric or emotionalism.

I also suspect he took the reviews for "The 15:17 to Paris" a bit hard.

You may be right about "Marwen" having a far lower performance than I have projected. "The Secret Life of Walter Mitty" is the film I think this movie wanted so badly to be. ("Mitty" ought to have been a blockbuster; it's one of my very favorite films of the last ten years.)

--Nico.

[Buscemi2]

It's been suggested the content is the reason. Reportedly from those who have seen it, it's a very dark comedy with a lot of humor that could be seen as offensive. So basically, old people humor but more R-rated.

[NicodemustheSage]

Btw, did anyone else notice that Clint's producing credit was scrubbed from "A Star Is Born"?

--Nico.

[Buscemi2]

I know there was that whole controversy over Jon Peters' credit. I assumed Clint only had a hand with pre-production and simply let Bradley Cooper do his thing.

[NicodemustheSage]

Clint had a big hand in getting that film made, and he campaigned tirelessly for the studio to give it to Cooper. Regardless, you're right about the Peters credit. Maybe Clint is just sick of the slimy and self-interested side of the biz. I wouldn't blame him.

I really do believe this is Clint's swan song, btw, all the way around. Call it an educated hunch.

--Nico.

[Buscemi2]

When I think of Peters, I always think of his obsession with giant spiders. That and he wanted to turn Superman into Venom.

[NicodemustheSage]

LOL, God, the spiders. The man must have been traumatized by them as a child.

--Nico.