Awards Season 2017

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numbersix
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Awards Season 2017

Post by numbersix »

Figured we'd get the ball rolling as awards get in.

It's a strange year this year, with no real front-runner awards film out - yet?

The idea of Get Out getting noms was initially ridiculous to me, but now? Maybe some awards, but for the Oscars I could see a Best Original Script but not much else.

For the Best Film Oscar nom, I think these are guaranteed: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Three Billboards, Darkest Hour, The Shape of Water
And I suspect The Florida Project, Lady Bird and Phantom thread have good chances.

Director: PTA (win), Nolan, Joe Wright, Del Toro, and the last slot will be between Greta Gerwig, Spielberg, and maybe Denis villeneuve

Actress: Saoirse Ronan, Annette Benning, Sally Hawkins, Frances McDormand, Margot Robbie. Benning to win.

Actor: Gary Oldman (win), the kid from Call Me by Your Name, Jake Gyllenhaal, Denzel, Daniel Day Lewis.

S Actress: Allison Janey, Laurie Metcalf (win), Mary J Blige, maybe Octavia Spencer, Holly hunter

S Actor: William Defoe (win), Armie Hammer, Sam Rockwell, not sure about the rest. Maybe Michael Shannon?

Original Script: Get Out, Lady Bird, The Big Sick, Three Billboards, Phantom Thread

Adapted Script: Call Me By Your Name, Molly's Game, The Disaster Artist, The Beguiled, not sure of the 4th.

Foreign: The Square, A Fantastic Woman, Loveless, 120 BPM, Foxtrot

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Re: Awards Season 2017

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think Streep gets in over Robbie. Spielberg's got the guilds in his hands and the old people in the Academy always nominate Streep. As for the win, I think Hawkins will get it. Bening won't win until she stops copying Streep while the Academy loves disabled characters, benefitting Hawkins heavily.

I think the anti-Semitism comments from a few years back will hurt Oldman. I have a hard time believing people will take him seriously as a fighter of Nazism (I sure don't).

The Academy doesn't like American directors who work outside the studios, costing Anderson (and to a much lesser extent, Richard Linklater). I think del Toro's going to be the favorite for Best Director.

Blade Runner won't do crap outside of the technical categories. The film underperformed and if box office performance hurt Detroit's chances, it will hurt this one too.

The Greatest Showman's still getting in there (and I believe Hugh Jackman to be the favorite for Best Actor). No way a Fox release about show business doesn't get a few nominations (though Fox didn't screen it at any festivals).

Lady Bird will likely just get action in the acting companies. A24's being stretched thin by all of their contenders (Lean on Pete got pushed to the Spring and that was at one point considered a dark horse).

And I'm not buying a Get Out push. The Academy hates horror and it opened in February (also, I think It getting an Oscar push steals a lot of its thunder).
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Re: Awards Season 2017

Post by transformers2 »

I made these predictions in a piece I did for my blog a few weeks back and for the time being, I'm going stick by them:

*indicates the projected winner
Best Picture:
Blade Runner 2049
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Lady Bird
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri* 
The Post

Best Director:
Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)* 
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name)
Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)

Best Actor:
Christian Bale (Hostiles)
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)*

Best Actress:
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)*
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post) 

Best Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Jason Mitchell (Mudbound)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)*
Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)

Best Supporting Actress:
Mary J. Blidge (Mudbound)
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)*
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Best Animated Feature:
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand 
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent*

Best Original Screenplay:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water*
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Call Me By Your Name*
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound 
Stronger

Best Foreign Language Film:
A Fantastic Woman
BPM
Happy End*
First They Killed My Father
The Square

Be sure to check back in late February when 80-90% of these picks prove to be spectacularly wrong :lol:
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Buscemi2
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Re: Awards Season 2017

Post by Buscemi2 »

Loving Vincent got mixed reviews (some critics felt that it was all style) so no way it's winning. Voters usually go with the most high-profile nominee so Coco more than likely has it in the bag. GKIDS could end up with two nominations as they always seem to sneak a movie into the last week of the year.

Despite it being a large production ($45 million, making it one of the costliest indies this year), there's been no push so far for Hostiles. It might be better for this one to be sold to audiences than voters.

The Academy was considering revising the rules to make Netflix movies ineligible recently so that will hurt Mudbound (also, the release date will hurt its visibility). Same with First They Killed My Father (which felt like a glorified TV movie).

Stronger is DOA. Reviews were good but it needed to find an audience to keep its hopes alive.

I could see Wonderstruck being a dark horse but more than likely, it just gets a Best Original Score nomination. I could also see Jennifer Connelly being a dark horse for a Best Supporting Actress nomination (it seems that the Academy tends to nominate previous winners more often than newcomers).
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numbersix
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Re: Awards Season 2017

Post by numbersix »

Sally Hawkins might win, but I don't see The Shape of Water winning many of the big awards. If Get Out is "too genre" then this isn't far off. Voters look to safer territory, not a HP Lovecraftian romance.

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Re: Awards Season 2017

Post by Buscemi2 »

And the nonsensical Golden Globes category classifications continue: Get Out is being considered a comedy. Other than the director being a comedy vet, this film wasn't any more comedic than your typical horror film. Or am I missing something as it seems like everyone's been trying to claim that it's satire lately (based on that logic, the dreadful Happy Death Day is also satire instead of being filled with horribly written cliches)?

If they're still planning to consider Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri as a drama as expected, something is seriously wrong with the Foreign Press.
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Chienfantome
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Re: Awards Season 2017

Post by Chienfantome »

It is indeed ridiculous to put Get Out in the Comedy category.
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transformers2
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Re: Awards Season 2017

Post by transformers2 »

Get Out is a satire, so I completely understand why it's being classified as a comedy.
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Re: Awards Season 2017

Post by Buscemi2 »

Not really. Peele plays most of the film straight (in fact, Peele's main influence was the original Stepford Wives, another film which plays its situation for scares rather than laughs, of which its remake did). Outside of the scenes with the TSA agent, it's more or less like most horror films.

If I were Jordan Peele, I'd ask Universal to suspend the awards campaign. He worked this hard to show a different side of his talents and now it's all being lumped in with his Key and Peele work.
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transformers2
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Re: Awards Season 2017

Post by transformers2 »

Buscemi2 wrote:If I were Jordan Peele, I'd ask Universal to suspend the awards campaign. He worked this hard to show a different side of his talents and now it's all being lumped in with his Key and Peele work.
Uhh have you been asleep for the last 9 months? With the success and near-universal praise it received, Get Out COMPLETELY shattered the stigma that Peele was simply a sketch-comedy performer/writer and there's nothing a fucking award categorization can do to change that.
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Re: Awards Season 2017

Post by Buscemi2 »

But by calling it a comedy, it reverses the progress (as well as the intent of the film). As I said, he worked this hard to shed the image as a funny man and now, it's getting lumped in with his other work (and the Golden Globes committee aren't the only ones).

This almost always seems to happen with comedians. They want to do serious stuff but everyone just wants the funny things. It has happened to Woody Allen, Robin Williams, Steve Martin, Bill Murray, and various others. Why is it so hard to just say, "I don't feel like being funny tonight"?
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W
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Re: Awards Season 2017

Post by W »

Who set Get Out's classification? If it's the studio, I'm assuming it's to make it easier to get nominated/awarded. If it's someone with the Globes I'm assuming it's because they see drama as super stiff, serious, and close to true life and comedy is "everything else." This happens a lot, though.
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transformers2
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Re: Awards Season 2017

Post by transformers2 »

Independent Spirit Awards nominations:
Best Feature:
Call Me By Your Name
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Rider

Best First Feature:
Columbus
Ingrid Goes West
Menashe
Oh Lucy!
Patti Cake$

BEST DIRECTOR
Sean Baker
The Florida Project
Jonas Carpignano
A Ciambra
Luca Guadagnino
Call Me by Your Name
Jordan Peele
Get Out
Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie
Good Time
Chloé Zhao
The Rider

BEST SCREENPLAY
Greta Gerwig
Lady Bird
Azazel Jacobs
The Lovers
Martin McDonagh
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jordan Peele
Get Out
Mike White
Beatriz at Dinner

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Kris Avedisian
Story By: Kyle Espeleta, Jesse Wakeman
Donald Cried
Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani
The Big Sick
Ingrid Jungermann
Women Who Kill
Kogonada
Columbus
David Branson Smith, Matt Spicer
Ingrid Goes West

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Thimios Bakatakis
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Elisha Christian
Columbus
Hélène Louvart
Beach Rats
Sayombhu Mukdeeprom
Call Me by Your Name
Joshua James Richards
The Rider

BEST EDITING
Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie
Good Time
Walter Fasano
Call Me by Your Name
Alex O’Flinn
The Rider
Gregory Plotkin
Get Out
Tatiana S. Riegel
I, Tonya

BEST FEMALE LEAD
Salma Hayek
Beatriz at Dinner
Frances McDormand
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie
I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan
Lady Bird
Shinobu Terajima
Oh Lucy!
Regina Williams
Life and nothing more

BEST MALE LEAD
Timothée Chalamet
Call Me by Your Name
Harris Dickinson
Beach Rats
James Franco
The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya
Get Out
Robert Pattinson
Good Time

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Holly Hunter
The Big Sick
Allison Janney
I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf
Lady Bird
Lois Smith
Marjorie Prime
Taliah Lennice Webster
Good Time

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Nnamdi Asomugha
Crown Heights
Armie Hammer
Call Me by Your Name
Barry Keoghan
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Sam Rockwell
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Benny Safdie
Good Time

ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD – Given to one film’s director, casting director and ensemble cast
Mudbound
Director: Dee Rees
Casting Directors: Billy Hopkins, Ashley Ingram
Ensemble Cast: Jonathan Banks, Mary J. Blige, Jason Clarke, Garrett Hedlund, Jason Mitchell, Rob Morgan, Carey Mulligan

BEST DOCUMENTARY (Award given to the director and producer)
The Departure
Director/Producer: Lana Wilson
Faces Places
Directors: Agnés Varda, JR
Producer: Rosalie Varda
Last Men in Aleppo
Director: Feras Fayyad
Producers: Kareem Abeed, Søeren Steen Jespersen, Stefan Kloos
Motherland
Director/Producer: Ramona S. Diaz
Producer: Rey Cuerdo
Quest
Director: Jonathan Olshefski
Producer: Sabrina Schmidt Gordon

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM (Award given to the director)
BPM (Beats Per Minute)
France
Director: Robin Campillo
A Fantastic Woman
Chile
Director: Sebastián Lelio
I Am Not a Witch
Zambia
Director: Rungano Nyoni
Lady Macbeth
U.K.
Director: William Oldroyd
Loveless
Russia
Director: Andrey Zvyagintsev

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD – Given to the best feature made for under $500,000. (Award given to the writer, director and producer. Executive Producers are not awarded.)
Dayveon
Writer/Director/Producer: Amman Abbasi
Writer: Steven Reneau
Producers: Lachion Buckingham, Alexander Uhlmann
A Ghost Story
Writer/Director: David Lowery
Producers: Adam Donaghey, Toby Halbrooks, James M. Johnston
Life and nothing more
Writer/Director: Antonio Méndez Esparza
Producers: Amadeo Hernández Bueno, Alvaro Portanet Hernández, Pedro Hernández Santos
Most Beautiful Island
Writer/Director/Producer: Ana Asensio
Producers: Larry Fessenden, Noah Greenberg, Chadd Harbold, Jenn Wexler
The Transfiguration
Writer/Director: Michael O’Shea
Producer: Susan Leber

BONNIE AWARD – The inaugural Bonnie Award will recognize a mid-career female director with a $50,000 unrestricted grant, sponsored by American Airlines.
So Yong Kim
Lynn Shelton
Chloé Zhao

JEEP TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD – The 23rd annual Truer Than Fiction Award, funded by the Jeep brand, is presented to an emerging director of non-fiction features who has not yet received significant recognition.
Shevaun Mizrahi
Director of Distant Constellation
Jonathan Olshefski
Director of Quest
Jeff Unay
Director of The Cage Fighter

KIEHL’S SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD – The 24th annual Someone to Watch Award, funded by Kiehl’s Since 1851, recognizes a talented filmmaker of singular vision who has not yet received appropriate recognition.
Amman Abbasi
Director of Dayveon
Justin Chon
Director of Gook
Kevin Phillips
Director of Super Dark Times

PIAGET PRODUCERS AWARD – The 21st annual Producers Award, funded by Piaget, honors emerging producers who, despite highly limited resources, demonstrate the creativity, tenacity and vision required to produce quality, independent films.
Giulia Caruso & Ki Jin Kim
Ben LeClair
Summer Shelton
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Re: Awards Season 2017

Post by JohnErle »

I'm kinda shocked The Big Sick got snubbed like that. Kumail Nanjiani has hosted the awards before, and now his breakthrough film goes almost completely ignored.

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Re: Awards Season 2017

Post by transformers2 »

Agreed. I was also very surprised by the absence of Three Billboards in the Best Feature category and Willem Dafoe (especially considering The Florida Project picked up a Best Picture nod).

On a completely unrelated note, I'm really disappointed that Beatriz at Dinner picked up 2 major noms (Best Female Lead, Best Screenplay) while Ingrid Goes West got snubbed outside of the 1st feature/script categories.
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