Award Season 2015

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numbersix
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Re: Award Season 2015

Post by numbersix »

SAG

Ensemble: Spotlight
Actor: Leo
Actress: Brie
S Actor: Idris Elba
S Actress: Alicia Vikander

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Re: Award Season 2015

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Inarritu wins the DGA Best Director award. Cartel Land's director takes the Documentary category while Alex Garland gets the First-Time Director award (I guess co-directing Dredd reshoots didn't count against him ;) ).

Meanwhile, things just keep getting weirder. The pundits and prognosticators must feel like Costner in Draft Day (or JFK or Thirteen Days or whatever Costner movie you like) in determining who wins (it's looking like a Spotlight/The Revenant race unless there's uproar on giving it to a Arnon Milchan production three years in a row, then it becomes Spotlight/The Martian or Spotlight/Mad Max).
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Re: Award Season 2015

Post by numbersix »

It's definitely the lest predictable oscars in years. Best film is between Spotlight, The Big Short, and The Revenant. My gut is saying the latter, but I'm really not sure.

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Re: Award Season 2015

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The Revenant and The Big Short might split due to the Milchan factor (and I'd favor The Revenant due to more lobbying from a distributor who's played the game better and better box office despite weaker reviews). And as I said, I can't see the awarding rewarding the same producer three years in a row (I believe Milchan would surpass David O. Selznick and the Weinsteins* for most consecutive Best Picture winners if one of his movies wins). This makes an underdog like The Martian (which in past years wouldn't be such) or Mad Max (which could sway most of the crew members in the Academy) possibly getting better traction.

The WGA and BAFTA's are next. I'm guessing Spotlight and Steve Jobs (the writers love Sorkin more than Goddard or McKay) get the WGA awards and the BAFTA turns out to be a surprise with Bridge of Spies or Carol (the two that got the most nominations) winning Best Film and Brooklyn getting Best British Film.


* - Selznick: 1939 & 1940; Weinsteins: 2002 & 2003
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Re: Award Season 2015

Post by transformers2 »

I'm loving the unpredictability of these Oscars. Outside of DiCaprio and Larson, there's no true locks, which is a nice change of pace of the norm where every winner is basically determined months in advance.
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Re: Award Season 2015

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It probably helps that the big Hollywood/entertainment industry love (maybe more love/hate) letter of the season (Trumbo) only got noticed on the acting side of things due to disappointing reviews and a new distributor handling it. In other years, it would have been the film to beat.
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Re: Award Season 2015

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Spotlight and The Big Short take the WGA awards but I'm beginning to really buy into the possibility of The Revenant (favored to take the BAFTA's) taking Best Picture. Last year, Birdman won Best Picture and didn't win either WGA award. Also, The Revenant could be the actors' choice (them holding about 22% of the total vote) as well as the crew members (I was thinking Mad Max initially but Warner Bros. doesn't have Fox's lobbying power) and the more artistically inclined directors. Also, the awards are always hungry for ratings and for them, there's nothing better than awarding a box office hit involving much of the nation's favorite actor.
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Re: Award Season 2015

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The Revenant and Brooklyn get the main BAFTA awards. Mad Max wins the most awards (4), DiCaprio, Larson, Rylance, and Winslet get the acting awards, Spotlight and The Big Short get the Screenplay awards, Inarritu gets Best Director, Amy takes Best Documentary, Morricone gets Best Original Score, and in a surprise, Theeb beats Ex Machina for Best Debut. Looks like they saw just how overrated Ex Machina was.

What now? It's looking like The Revenant (25% chance, according to Gold Derby) takes three of the Big Five (Picture, Actor, Director) unless a Milchan split happens, which would give Spotlight (44% chance) two of the Big Five (Picture, Original Screenplay). A Revenant win would also be good for television ratings, as audiences tune in for a box office hit. Sure, The Revenant had the worst reviews for a Best Picture nominee this year but its success with audiences cancels out that factor. If there's any dark horse, it's probably Mad Max. Though Gold Derby gives it a 1% chance, it's a more likely winner than The Big Short (21% chance) as its been a more acclaimed and decorated film and the more bottom line members (cinematographers, editors, makeup and hair stylists, visual effects artists, etc.) could vote for it (though The Revenant looks good too on this end).

The biggest question mark is going to be the Supporting categories. Insiders like Stallone for Best Supporting Actor but I still think Rylance gets it. Some voters could hold out due to the lack of Idris Elba while most may show a loyalty to Spielberg (he did lobby the film in October and November with a series of special screenings to the DGA and other groups) and give it to Rylance. Though in Stallone's favor, some voters may be holding off of Rylance in the possibility The BFG and Dunkirk have even better performances from him. As for Supporting Actress, it's been a clustercuss. It looked like Mara was the favorite, then Leigh, then Winslet, then Vikander, and now maybe Winslet again. But I'm going with Vikander. Weinstein's having money troubles and Mara and Leigh haven't been pushed the way they would have in previous years. In addition, they likely split the vote. Winslet could win again but Steve Jobs was a flop (this also likely cost Sorkin awards that looked certain a few months back). Vikander had a great year and though The Danish Girl wasn't the world-changing film Focus and Universal hoped it would be, Vikander's 2015 seals the deal.

How the total ballots may look in two weeks (I wish the Academy would release the results much like sports leagues do with their awards):

The Revenant
Spotlight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Big Short
The Martian
Brooklyn
Bridge of Spies
Room (my personal choice for Best Picture)
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Re: Award Season 2015

Post by numbersix »

Okay folks, final predictions...

Film: The Revenant
Director: Inarritu
Actor: Leo
Actress: Brie
S Actor: Sly
S Actress: Alicia Vikander
Original Script: Inside Out
Adapted Script: The Big Short
Foreign: Son of Saul
Documentary: Amy
Animation: Inside Out
Cinematography: The Revenant
Editing: The Big Short
Visual Effects: Star Wars
Makeup: Mad Max
Production Design: Mad Max
Costume: Cinderella
Sound Editing: Mad Max
Sound Mixing: Star Wars
Score: Hateful 8
Song: Spectre
Live Short: Ave Maria
Animated Short: World of Tomorrow
Doc short: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

Though my fingers are crossed for Lenny and Emma and Ed for Room to win for director, adapted script, and film.

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Re: Award Season 2015

Post by transformers2 »

Here's what I have for my final predictions:
Picture: Spotlight
Director: Alejandro Inarritu
Actor: Leonardo DiCapario
Actress: Brie Larson
Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone
Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander
Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Foreign Film: Son of Saul
Documentary: Amy
Animation: Inside Out
Cinematography: The Revenant
Editing: The Revenant
Visual Effects: Mad Max
Makeup: Mad Max
Production Design: Mad Max
Costume Design: Cinderella
Sound Editing: Mad Max
Sound Mixing: Mad Max
Score: Hateful 8
Song: Spectre
Live Short: Day One
Animated Short: World of Tomorrow
Doc short: Body Team 12
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Re: Award Season 2015

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Spotlight wins at Independent Spirit Awards (an actually independent film won for once!):

http://deadline.com/2016/02/spirit-awar ... 201710410/

In other news, the Razzies had a tie for Worst Picture. Fifty Shades of Grey and Fantastic Four split the bill.

http://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/art ... innesr2016
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Re: Award Season 2015

Post by Chienfantome »

Final prédictions :

Best Picture : The Revenant
Best Director : George Miller, Mad Max
Best Actor : Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Best Actress : Brie Larson, Room
Best Actor in Supporting Role : Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Best Actress in Supporting Role : Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Best Original Screenplay : Spotlight
Best Adapted Screenplay : The Big Short
Best Animated : Inside Out
Best Foreign Language : Son of Saul
Cinematography : The Revenant
Editing : The Big Short
Production Design : Mad Max
Costume Design : Cinderella
Make-up : Mad Max
Score : The Hateful Eight
Song : Spectre
Sound mixing : Mad Max
Sound editing : Mad Max
VFX : Mad Max
Documentary : Amy
Short Doc : Claude Lanzman
Short Animated : World of Tomorrow
Short Live : Day One
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Re: Award Season 2015

Post by Buscemi »

Well, Spotlight won Best Picture in the end (continuing the trend of the Critic's Choice Best Picture winner also being the Academy's winner in most years). And Leo (and Morricone) finally gets his Oscar.

Results:
Best Picture: Spotlight
Best Director: Inarritu
Best Actor: Leo
Best Actress: Brie Larson
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance
Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander
Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Best Animated Feature: Inside Out
Best Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul
Best Documentary Feature: Amy
Best Documentary Short: A Girl in the River
Best Live Action Short: Stutterer
Best Animated Short: Bear Story
Best Original Score: The Hateful Eight
Best Original Song: Writing's on the Wall (Skyfall)
Best Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Sound Mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Cinematography: The Revenant
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Costume Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Visual Effects: Ex Machina

The good:
- Mad Max cleaning up
- Brie Larson, Mark Rylance, and Ennio Morricone winning
- Amy winning Best Documentary Feature (Asif Kapadia finally gets his Oscar)

The bad:
- another Lubezki Oscar (I really don't see why people think he's so great)
- Ex Machina over Mad Max in Visual Effects (seriously, they overlook the mountains of traditional effects over something that looks slapped together on a low-end laptop)
- The Big Short over Room for Adapted Screenplay
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Re: Award Season 2015

Post by numbersix »

The good:
Brie Larson's and Alicia Vikander's well-deserved Oscars, The Revenant not winning best film, Morricone winning for score (best of the year, even if it's 34 years old), Mad Max's technical awards trumping Star Wars, and a young Irish film-maker winning Best Live Short. Good on him!

The bad:
Mark Rylance (seriously, he does nothing in the film but maintain a blank expression - it's about as much of a performance as Judi Dench's in Shakespeare in Love), Spotlight winning best adapted script (it's the weakest of the nominees, lacking in characterisation and full of exposition), Inarritu getting the director award, and the horror of seeing Sam Smith get awarded for anything (but particularly the WORST Bond theme ever. )

Biggest surprise:
Ex Machina winning VFX. Mad Max was way more impressive but nice to see a low-budget film get an award against the blockbusters for once.

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Re: Award Season 2015

Post by Chienfantome »

I'm glad Morricone got the Oscar and Mad Max kicked everyone's ass on the technical ones. I wish Miller had won Best Director though.
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