FantasyMovieLeague.com

[W]

95% of people won't know what PTA is even if you explain it. And It isn't completely broken, but it does need some kind of change. Right now the strategy should be to pick the best film for the dollar and stream it (put it on as many times as possible) unless:

1. You put it on eight times and have money left over, you may want to add something bigger once or twice (or maybe not).
2. You don't fill all eight screens (unless you think taking the $2 M penalty is worth it).

You should NEVER have two similarly priced films on the same slate (i.e. Mad Max and PP2 this week and last) UNLESS:

1. You're streaming the slightly higher priced one and that one won't fit another time, but the lower one will.
2. You're up by a lot at the end of the season and want to "play it safe".

Basically, you're trying to maximize profits (the premise of standard Economics) and if one of those two films are better and they're fairly equal in price, there's very few scenarios where mixing it up is the better choice. The broken part is there's no incentive to mix up your slate. Every week will be won by someone who picks one film, streams it, and that film is the best one for the buck. For lack of a better word at the moment, there's no "penalty" for streaming. I'm willing to concede there's one time in a hundred or a thousand where the $2 M bonus goes to a very small film and that makes up for the streaming, but even if it does win, it won't be by much.

[W]

They just pushed back the time when the slates lock to 7 PM EST. This is horrible. Everyone needs to let them know this is an awful idea. Post on the site and/or send them emails and hopefully they'll understand this kills competitive balance. There's already a thread.

[Geezer]

I hate that idea as well. Should have left the lock time alone. Don't they know Deadline exists?

And I agree with your take on it, W, but the challenge lies in figuring out WHICH of the films will give you the most money per dollar you invest. Which film to max out your budget on. And which films to choose when you can't fit any more and want to fill out your budget or empty screens. Over the course of 15 weeks, if the pricing remains competitive, that will make for a wide variety. I think San Andreas will make about 40 million this week. If it does, I think it is the best way to spend your money, as I don't see Pitch Perfect or Mad Max (or any of the other high dollar films) returning a higher rate for your dollar. But I think it will be very interesting to see what Tanu Weds Manu Returns does, because when all of those films are making between 500k and 2.2 million, that 2 million dollar bonus is going to make the difference this week.

Now I do see one other scenario in which you would want to take multiple films close in price: uncertainty. If you simply aren't sure which film is going to give you the best return, take both, mix it up, and you cover your ass. It's not going to give you the best return, but it can assure you a good one. Which goes along with your big lead/play it safe point. If I really couldn't pick between two movies and had the budget for both, I'd consider taking both to avoid kicking myself when I'm totally wrong. If you're behind by a wide margin you can't afford this strategy, you have to go for the win, but some weeks it could make sense to lay up and make sure you stay in the game.

Ultimately, they need to pick a goal return dollar ($1 for every $100k in potential earnings would seem like a logical goal to me) and strive really hard to price every film to that number, much like we should be doing with our box office multipliers in our pricing schemes here.

[Spectre]

I personally like San Andreas x2 this week but if you feel like it's going to underperform or PP/MM are going to hold better than expected, they're the way to go. The filler is where it gets trickier for me because just a few hundred thousand changes the best play. Overall, I feel pretty good about my slate being the best available combination.

[W]

I hate that idea as well. Should have left the lock time alone. Don't they know Deadline exists?

In all seriousness, they may not know Deadline exists. This is week #2 for them and (as far as I know) they have a sports background. Maybe equating it to being able to add a QB after you know he throws three TDs in the first quarter will help? I did that, so hopefully...

[Chienfantome]

I'm too lazy to read everything everyone wrote but I finally joined in this thing.

[W]

I'm too lazy to read everything everyone wrote but I finally joined in this thing.

Here's what you need to know:
1. You can put multiple of the same film on there (think of the slate as a theater and sometimes they show Pitch Perfect on three screens).
2. You get a bonus of $2 M for however many times you pick the best film per dollar spent. Last week it was PP2, so everyone with PP2 x8 got a $16 M bonus.
3. There's a $2 M penalty for each screen left open. There could be a scenario where leaving a screen open is preferable, but I'd guess not often.

I think those are the basics you can miss. The bonus was never even mentioned on the site last week... I haven't checked to see if they've changed that.

[Chienfantome]

Thanks for the sum up, W !

[Spectre]

3. There's a $2 M penalty for each screen left open. There could be a scenario where leaving a screen open is preferable, but I'd guess not often.

The only scenario I can see it is where the optimal lineup is so optimal that it's worth eating the $2M opening to fit it on but I think that'll be rare, especially if they have super cheap movies like this week. I'm really curious to see how they price weeks with blockbusters.

[W]

Yeah, that was my thought as well, Spectre. If you could have barely fit two Age of Ultrons on a slate opening weekend, it'd probably be worth it. It probably would have even been optimal if you grabbed Ultron for up to $1000.

[numbersix]

From my estimates for this weekend, I think San Andreas will deliver the best bang for your buck. Most of the others all had similar ratios to each other, which is a sign of good, competitive pricing.

[Spectre]

From my estimates for this weekend, I think San Andreas will deliver the best bang for your buck. Most of the others all had similar ratios to each other, which is a sign of good, competitive pricing.

I think it should but it could easily could not be the best as well. For example, if it does $33M and PP does $18M (which isn't far-fetched at all), then PP x4 ends up being the ideal slate. All depends on how you think things will play out but it's nowhere near the no-brainer it was last week which is a very good thing.

[W]

Great minds think alike, Geezy. We've got the same exact slates again.

[Spectre]

Great minds think alike, Geezy. We've got the same exact slates again.

Which is unfortunate because that means you don't have my winning slate this week I honestly thought about doing that slate but I won't pretend to have the slightest clue what that Indian film is going to do haha.

[Buscemi]

Indian films usually seem to take in $900,000-$1.2 million opening weekend from what I've noticed (though some have managed to do even more). But they rarely hold well.