FantasyMovieLeague.com

Discuss past, present, and future releases. This is the place for news, reviews, and your 'best' lists.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6664
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: FantasyMovieLeague.com

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'd hate to be the ones who took Blade Runner this week. $800+ dollars and it won't even hit $40 million for the weekend.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: FantasyMovieLeague.com

Post by numbersix »

I kept changing my mind. I initially had a bunch of My Little Ponies then when I saw the Thurs evening figures I switched back to BR. Damn, I'm sucking this season.

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7731
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: FantasyMovieLeague.com

Post by transformers2 »

Even though I did ok this week, I'm kicking myself for not loading up on My Little Pony.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6664
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: FantasyMovieLeague.com

Post by Buscemi2 »

numbersix wrote:I kept changing my mind. I initially had a bunch of My Little Ponies then when I saw the Thurs evening figures I switched back to BR. Damn, I'm sucking this season.
Blade Runner didn't do crap here Thursday night. The theatre I went to on Thursday (for the Dead/Alive showing) had it on four screens and almost no one showed. Pre-sales for the weekend were weak too.

The mistake I made was Victoria & Abdul over Ninjago. I didn't realize I had enough money left.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: FantasyMovieLeague.com

Post by Shrykespeare »

Box Office Champs is now taking studios for the October-January season. Picking a Top 10 is going to be interesting.

How many of you play this game? I'd love to get your thoughts.


First, the obvious.

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (duh)
2. Justice League
3. Thor: Ragnarok
4. Coco

Coco could edge ahead of Thor, but the rule is, if it's end position is within two of your prediction, you get the bonus money.

But now the question is... what comes next?

Sequels to comedies often disappoint, so how much faith do we put in Pitch Perfect 3, Daddy's Home 2 and Bad Moms Xmas? True, PP2 broke out hugely over PP1, but I have to figure that won't happen again.

Then we have the standard animated/musical fare. Can Ferdinand break out opening so close to Coco? Will The Greatest Showman pull Les Miserables numbers?

After that, we have possible hits in Murder on the Orient Express and the Jumanji reboot.

So that's ten. Beyond that, I'm stumped. What films are going wide in January with big potential? Is there a sleeper hit like Hidden Figures in the bunch?

I figure the cutoff for the Top 10 grossing films by the end of January will be, at minimum, $80M. This is gonna be interesting.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7731
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: FantasyMovieLeague.com

Post by transformers2 »

Here are my thoughts on the wild card picks for this season:

I think that Ferdinand can be this year's Sing. Coco will have been out for 3 weeks at this point and it's the only animated movie coming around Christmas. I don't think $200 mil is out of the question (I have this at #5 on slate).

Pitch Perfect 3 more than likely won't gross as much as the 2nd one, but it should be able to clear 100 mil without incident.

Even though the potency of the brand in 2017 is questionable, Jumanjii should benefit from the traditionally strong holds of the holiday season, it's potential appeal to family audiences and the Johnson/Hart pairing. $100 mil is definitely in play.

Daddy's Home 2 is one of the films that I'm considering putting at the back-end of my slate, but the potential sequel fatigue and slew of other family fare slated for release throughout November makes me nervous about its long-term prospects.

I'd be surprised if Bad Moms Christmas finished in the top 10. Competition is much rougher this time around and the WOM on the first one wasn't all that great.

The Greatest Showman is an insane wild card that I can't really gauge at this point. The musical aspect makes it intriguing, but I'm not convinced that people give a shit about the birth of the Barnum & Bailey Circus.

Murder on the Orient Express strikes me as the type of adult-aimed movie that will put up decent albeit completely unremarkable numbers ($50-65 mil). I'm definitely avoiding it.

The award contenders are a similar dart-throw. As of right now, I'd say that Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water have the best odds of achieving BO success. However, they could both prove to be too dark/strange to be embraced by the masses.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: FantasyMovieLeague.com

Post by numbersix »

Yeah, the top 4 are fairly evident. I think Thor 3 will beat Coco just because of the buzz the trailers are getting.

One wildcard I'm counting on is Wonder. Could be a surprise hit of the season. I think Murder on the Orient Express will play well to that older audience and coudl surprise.

So far I don't see any of the limited releases breaking out in any significant way. Molly's Games isn't getting the reviews, 3 billboards feels too dark, The Shape of Water has potential but it's impossible to say how much it'll make - could be $5 or could be $50. The performance of A Monster Calls makes me hesitate. The Post is the only one that I'm including on my slate, just because it's Spielberg.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: FantasyMovieLeague.com

Post by Shrykespeare »

Okay, so, my tentative lineup for right now:

1. Star Wars
2. Justice League
3. Thor
4. Coco
5. Greatest Showman
6. Jumanji
7. Pitch Perfect 3
8. Daddy's Home 2
9. Ferdinand
10. Wonder

Alternates:
Murder on the Orient Express
Bad Moms Christmas
The Post
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
W
Norman Bates
Posts: 7242
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 4:37 pm

Re: FantasyMovieLeague.com

Post by W »

I'll throw my preliminary guesses here (percent chance I think it'll hit that rank or better):
1. Star Wars 8, 99.99999%. A meteor will have to hit earth or Justice League will have to be better than The Dark Knight for this not to be #1.
2. Justice League, 95%. Batman v Superman went to $330. Pre-Wonder Woman it could have seriously tanked, but I'm thinking $300 if it's a fiasco like BvS. Could max out at $450-500.
3. Thor, 80%. Thor has been the lowest grossing of the major MCU characters at around $200 M per. Trailers make it seem like it's a half Hulk movie. I'm thinking $250-300.
4. Coco, 70%. It's Pixar, but they've been off as of late ($123 Good Dino, $152 Cars 3) and every time there's a dark animated movie based around death it averages $50 M (Frankenweenie, Book of Life, Coraline, Boxtrolls). It is PIXAR and it has a bit of buzz already, so you have to give it more of a chance than the rest of the field.
5. Jumanji 50%, I Considered Ferdinand but went with Jumanji. The Rock and Hart were able to get $127 out of Central Intelligence basically based on star power alone. Add nostalgia and a good release date and it could hit $200 M if Star Wars doesn't swallow it up.
6. Ferdinand 40%. Really no competition for the little kid crowd and it's in the Sing/Alvin spot. I think it could hit just above $150 and I'd be surprised if it fell under $100 M.
7. Daddy's Home 2 60%. Two years ago the original hit $150 M. The trailer gets a lot of laughs every time I see it in the theater. With the right conditions it could hit as high as #4. Almost put it at #6.
8. Pitch Perfect 3 50%. #1 built a following, #2 built on that and exploded. I'm thinking #3 comes back down to Earth at $125-ish.
9. Bad Moms 2 25%. The first one went a little over $100. This one looks to be little looked forward to, so I'm not really sure. I'll be safe and say it hits the same mark.
10. Murder on the Orient Express 20%. By process of elimination I'm going with this. It seems like the serious adult film of the winter. It's star studded, but seems a little bland. My guess is $80-100.

I'm really missing that serious Oscar film that breaks out, but I'm not sure it's here this year. The Post is probably the closest and I benched it, but it seems a little dull to capture the attention of the masses. Zero percent chance that Phantom Thread does.
Downsizing is on my bench as I think it has a chance to be up there. Payne has had Descendents, About Schmidt, and Sideways hit near $100 M adjusted and this seems more accessible than those.
Lastly I benched The Star. I don't know how a decently made Christian animated film will play. There's zero comparisons I can think of. I even searched IMDb for keywords Christian and Animation and got Veggie Tales, Moral Oral, and Davey and Goliath.
Tenet: Criterion Edition. Now with more Backwards Man.

User avatar
BanksIsDaFuture
Jack Torrance
Posts: 6513
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 4:09 pm

Re: FantasyMovieLeague.com

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

I think everyone is too low on Downsizing, think it could really hit over the holidays. There's not much in the way of 4 quad movies outside of Star Wars, and Downsizing is broad enough to fit that category.

My list:

1. Star Wars
2. Justice League
3. Thor 3
4. Coco
5. Ferdinand
6. Downsizing
7. Jumanji
8. Murder on the Orient Express
9. Pitch Perfect 3
10. Insidious 17 or whatever

Bench:
A Bad Moms Christmas
Father Figures
Wonder
Alexandra Daddario: Eyes of a Demon, Face of My Future Ex-Wife

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6664
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: FantasyMovieLeague.com

Post by Buscemi2 »

Downsizing is an Alexander Payne film and his movies are often too highbrow for a mainstream audience (especially one whose idea of sci-fi is "shit blows up" or "astronaut seeks redemption"). If not for Father Figures (which has been on the shelf for what seems like years), this would be the bomb of the Christmas season.

I'm also not buying the potential of The Star. The market's too crowded and most religious films don't make money. Only Evangelicals will see it and they spend more time complaining about the movies and spouting off myths about the entertainment industry than going to movies.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: FantasyMovieLeague.com

Post by Shrykespeare »

I agree with Boosh re: The Star. Coco and Ferdinand have more widespread appeal (and likely a much higher advertising budget), so I think The Star will get lost in the shuffle.

I can only think of one religious (read "biblical") animated film that broke out, and that was 1998's Prince of Egypt. Which, lets face it, was basically The Ten Commandments: The Musical Disney version. Moses' story is much more "epic" than the birth of Jesus, so.... yeah.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
JohnErle
Snake Plissken
Posts: 2905
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 4:01 am
Contact:

Re: FantasyMovieLeague.com

Post by JohnErle »

They sure go out of their way to make their game the opposite of user-friendly. Not being able to drag and drop films to re-arrange them is a pain the ass.

User avatar
W
Norman Bates
Posts: 7242
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 4:37 pm

Re: FantasyMovieLeague.com

Post by W »

Yeah, drag and drop would be great. The worse thing is that you can't search for a film even with control+f. So you have to know the exact release date off the top of your head or guess where it is. It makes it easy to forget a title.
Tenet: Criterion Edition. Now with more Backwards Man.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: FantasyMovieLeague.com

Post by Shrykespeare »

Guys,

I have been in contact with Noah, who runs Box Office Champs. He is looking for feedback, and I have included many of your suggestions in my emails to him, including more visible film names, drag-and-drop capabilities, and having a separate page where we can actually view the box office results of each film all at once.

He seems very receptive to feedback. I've told him about Reel Society, and Fantasy Moguls, and this crazy little message board that we've had for over a decade now. Our communication is still in the beginning stages, but I'm hoping it can be mutually beneficial.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

Post Reply