Was It Worth It - The Films of July

[Shrykespeare]

NG

Cheap PTA picks that failed to net a single point:

The Empty Hours ($3U) - 6.2 UR.
Happy Christmas ($4U) - 5.8 UR.



F

The Fluffy Movie ($5U, $5BO) - 0 T5, 0 PTA, 6.1 UR, $2M.

And So It Goes ($5U, $5BO) - 0 T5, 0 PTA, 5.5 UR, $15M.



D-

Sex Tape ($17U, $17BO) - 2 T5, 0 PTA, 5.3 UR, $38M. Yuck.



D-

Deliver Us From Evil ($12U, $12BO) - 3 T5, 3 PTA (Jul only), 6.4 UR, $30M. Wasn't this supposed to be this year's saving grace for the horror genre?



D+

Earth to Echo ($8U, $8BO) - 0 T5, 2 PTA (Jul only), 5.9 UR, $38M. Not a horrible pick in BO, but a complete bust in Ultimate.

Wish I Was Here ($4U) - 1 PTA, 7.3 UR. Many of us were hoping for better.

A Most Wanted Man ($4U) - 1 PTA, 7.4 UR. Adios, PSH.



C-

Planes: Fire and Rescue ($15U, $14 BO) - 4 T5, 0 PTA, 5.8 UR, $57M. Not even the dearth of animated films could scare up interest.



C+

Tammy ($16U, $17BO) - 7 T5, 3 PTA (May/Jun), 5 PTA (Jul), 4.8 UR, $83M. Guess Melissa can't guarantee a blockbuster all on her own. That Rating was a killer.



B-

Hercules ($16U, $15BO) - 6 T5, 2 PTA, 6.5 UR, $71M. Not the total slate killer many thought it would be.



B

Life Itself ($4U) - 2 PTA (May/Jun), 4 PTA (Jul), 8.2 UR. Another PTA pick we expected more from.

Land Ho! ($3U) - 3 PTA, 6.4 UR. A fairly pleasant surprise for a cheapie pick.



B

The Rover ($3U) - 4 PTA, 7.3M. A worthy pick, but not overwhelmingly so.



B+

The Purge: Anarchy ($10U, $10BO) - 6 T5, 3 PTA, 6.7 UR, $71M. So many horror flops, and THIS is the one that breaks out? Wow.

Mood Indigo ($3U) - 4 PTA, 6.5 UR. Another decent import.



A-

Lucy ($14U, $13B) - 10 T5, 1 PTA, 6.6 UR, $118M. A few more PTA would have been nice, but a very pleasant late-summer surprise.



A

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes ($34U, $33BO) - 14 T5, 6 PTA, 8.1 UR, $205M. Great numbers all around, nearly saving the whole damn season.

Magic in the Moonlight ($7U) - 11 PTA, 6.9 UR. No BO breakout this time for woody, but it delivered what was expected in PTA.



And the best pick of July:

A+

Boyhood ($6U, $2BO) - 16 PTA, 8.8UR, $19M. An indie pick that produced great in BO too. That's a rare find.




Here's how my box office predictions fared this month:

HITS
Tammy - Predicted $24/$94, Actual $21/$84
Earth to Echo - Predicted $14/$34, Actual $8/$38
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - Predicted $65/$195, Actual $72/$205

NEAR MISSES
Planes: Fire and Rescue - Predicted $22/$85, Actual $18/$58

EGREGIOUS MISSES
Deliver Us From Evil - Predicted $18/$46, Actual $9/$
Sex Tape - Predicted $25/$85, Actual $15/$38
The Purge: Anarchy - Predicted $20/$35, Actual $28/$71
Hercules - Predicted $19/$48, Actual $30/$71
Lucy - Predicted $27/$83, Actual $44/$118

[numbersix]

Think Life Itself got 5 PTA points in July leagues, as it got an extra single point in its 2nd weekend.

Anyway, July seemed to be a disappointing month with nothing really surprising outside of the obvious, namely Boyhood and Apes 2. There were certainly disappointments, such as Tammy and Planes 2, both of which performed much lower than I expected. I guess the pleasant surprise was Purge 2, which I happened to omit from all of my slates.

[Chienfantome]

Yeah it was a month of disappointments and very few surprises. The only "good" surprise was how high Lucy went for its cheap price.
Boyhood did great, but it was to be expected.

[bestfilm]

Actually, the Allen's movie delivered just 8 PTA. Considering the unexceptional rating, the gross lower than its previous movies and its high price I would barely give it a B+.

Anyway, I was wondering whether you (Shryke) attribute those grades at a glance or you use some kind of a formula and criteria as to decide when a movie deserves either a B or a B+, for example.

[Shrykespeare]

Well, I just compare their results in comparison to their price tag and go from there. It's always open to interpretation of course, but that's how I do it.

[JohnErle]

And here's your Box Office ROI.

It's bizarre to see limited release movies finish #1 and #3, but that's just the kind of summer it was.

Lucy was your best bet among wide releases, and The Purge: Anarchy was shockingly solid as well. Sex Tape was the most bankrupts-friendly pick among wide releases, and the only way it could have done worse is if Cameron Diaz and Melissa McCarthy had swapped roles.

[Chienfantome]

Strange month indeed.

[W]

Sex Tape was the most bankrupts-friendly pick among wide releases, and the only way it could have done worse is if Cameron Diaz and Melissa McCarthy had swapped roles.

Based on the sex scene with her husband in Bridesmaids, I'd have totally went to see Sex Tape with McCarthy in it.

[bestfilm]

Well, I just compare their results in comparison to their price tag and go from there. It's always open to interpretation of course, but that's how I do it.

Ok, I asked you because I've been working on a formula that tries to give an evaluation on a movie's performance pondering the four parameters both on price and expectations (which also vary according to the season), so as to compare movies in a more objective way. It might also be useful for the pricing panel, because according to anyone's expectation, you can give ex-ante any movie a price that is neither advantageous or disadvantageous, because all movies should perform in the same way, if priced correctly (obviously, we are still talking of subjective predictions made even three months before movies are released and meanwhile many things may change, but this should be no excuse when it comes to making prices as reflective of actual value of movies as possible and thus the game more interesting and challenging).

Anyway, I thought of a formula that gives a score from 0 to 1(sometimes higher for exceptional results) to the achievements of the movies in the four categories (IMDb, PTA, top 5, boxoffice).

If someone is interested I can give you more details, what follows is just to make you understand:

IMDb - People will reasonably choose movie with a rating non inferior to 5. At the same time, movies rated over 9 don't come often. So, I use the formula (UR-5)/4, that gives a score of 1 to a movie with a rating of 9, 0 to a movie with a rating of five and all the other movies receive a score proportionately.

Top 5 and PTA - Usually, 20 top5 and 15 pta are very good achievements for a movie in the game, so the effective amount is to be pondered both on the numbers I indicated and on the ratio total budget/price of the single movie.

Boxoffice - You divide the gross by (is by correct?) the price and then by 10.000.000. After that you multiply the result for a correctional factor that varies according to the season (it will be higher in May - Jul than in Aug - Oct according to the respective average grosses of the two periods).


If you have your worksheet, you can also do the reverse job: you expect a movie to be rated around 7.7, to make 8 top5 and 4 pta and to earn $110 million; if the average performance of a movie, according to the criteria I explained before, is represented by a sum of score on different categories making 2 (maximum should be 4), with few attempts, you can find the respective price.