Top 5 of Summer 2014

[undeadmonkey]

having had the convo of the comedies yesterday, got me thinking of this. So quick, top 5 money makers of 2014


1. X-Men 4 and 2 and a half $300M - $350M
2. How to train your Dragon 2 $280M - $300M
3. Transformers 4 $250M - $270M
4. The Amazing SpiderMan 2 $230M -$250M
5. Maleficent $200M - $220M

Honorable Mentions: 22 Jump Street and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - $200M


I think the recent trend of combining superheroes will bode well for the Xmen film, plus memorial day films have a tendency to be one of the biggest releases of the year.

Judging by the trailer of Dragon 2 I would say it would be a mediocre hit only because of the goodwill from the first, but it literally has the summer to itself in terms of animation and kid friendly films.

Transformers reboot will obviously make less than the originals, but they were so huge, even with the normal drop off, transformers should be one of the top earners of the summer.

Though you would expect more from spiderman, i don't see this one going any higher than the first, i also don't see it making much less either.

with Maleficent, I just get this Alice in Wonderland vibe from it.

[Buscemi]

I think the bigger question with Maleficent will be if the reviews will be better or worse than Transcendence. Transcendence has more than likely killed the concept of giving first-time directors $100 million plus budgets and Maleficent seemed to have a troubled production based on having a first-time director (filming started in 2012 and it changed dates a few times). And with Disney's non-Marvel productions having a mixed box office result, I'm not liking its chances.

My picks for the top five box office performers of the summer:

1. X-Men: Days of Futures Past
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction
3. Godzilla (I'm thinking 2009's Star Trek with this one)
4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
5. How to Train Your Dragon 2

Top five flops

1. Jupiter Ascending
2. Edge of Tomorrow
3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (which apparently might not make August due to reshoots)
4. The Giver
5. Sex Tape

[numbersix]

How to Train Your Dragon 2 will be the hands down winner of the summer. The first was a huge success across a tougher time of the year, and as UDM said it has pretty much the summer to itself, with the exception of Planes 2. I see it making 300-350.

Next in line


X-Men will do well but I'm not sure if it'll hit the 300m mark. It certainly has a good run across June but the best a film has ever done was 234m. 250m could be as high as it gets.

Transformers may be a tired franchise by now but I still see the fourth film doing well. Again, lack of major competition in July will help it.

And Spidey is the obvious solid performer.

I think a comedy will make the Top 5 of the Summer. The most likely is 23 jump street considering how well the first played.

1. How to train your Dragon 2 300-350m
2. Transformers 4 $280-320m
3. The Amazing SpiderMan 2 $250-275m
4. X-Men ? $230-260m
5. 23 Jump Street $180-200m

Plenty of wild cards this summer, particularly Godzilla (an amazing trailer campaign but it really needs to deliver), A Million Ways to Die in the West (there are many reasons for it to fail, but Seth could pull it off after Ted did so well), Neighbours (great reviews), and Guardians of the Galaxy (it's Marvel, but a lesser group).

Safe bets for solid earnings but low ceilings are Maleficient (should do Snow White and the Huntsman numbers) and Dawn of the POTAs.

For me the biggest flops look like Edge of Tomorrow, Hercules, Jupiter Ascending, and The Giver.

[Shrykespeare]

Here are Box Office Mojo's predictions for the summer season:

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2 - $325M
2. X-Men: Days of Future Past - $290M
3. Transformers: Age of Extinction - $285M
4. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - $240M
5. Godzilla - $230M
6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $225M
7. Guardians of the Galaxy - $180M
8. Maleficent - $150M
9. Neighbors - $140M
10. 22 Jump Street - $135M
11. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $130M
12. A Million Ways to Die in the West - $125M
13. The Fault in Our Stars - $120M
14. Deliver Us From Evil - $115M
15. Planes: Fire and Rescue - $110M
16. Hercules - $105M
17. Tammy - $105M
18. Blended - $100M
19. Get on Up - $95M
20. Edge of Tomorrow - $90M

[Chienfantome]

Wow, they are very optmistic for some of the films.
TMNT, 130M ?
Deliver us from Evil, 115 ??
Get on up, 95 ???

And at the same time they seem a little shy on Tammy or 22 Jump Street.

[Buscemi]

I can't see Deliver Us from Evil making more than $40 million. It looks more like a bad TV show than a movie.

[Shrykespeare]

I think their reasoning regarding Deliver Us From Evil is that it's a horror movie placed at a time in the schedule where there isn't any horror, and hasn't been for a while. These are the factors that helped make The Conjuring such a huge hit.

[undeadmonkey]

Not just that, but it's also been ages since there's been a successful horror movie. I was expecting one of the april ones to break out just because its been so long, but i guess they were awful

[silversurfer19]

The Conjuring benefited from excellent reviews as well as a good release slot. I don't think the end of August is that great a position in comparison and it doesn't have a director with as much acclaim as James Wan. Will the movie even be any good? Far too many question marks to be ranking it alongside one of the most successful horror movies in recent memory. I'm with Boushh, at least until we hear some early feedback on the movie, $40m seems about right.

[Shrykespeare]

End of August? I thought it was coming out July 4...

[silversurfer19]

End of August? I thought it was coming out July 4...

Sorry, UK date on IMDB. Still, there are still too many questions surrounding it for me to get to the point where I think it will perform similarly to The Conjuring.

[Buscemi]

Meanwhile, I can see Earth to Echo and Into the Storm surprising. With the former, there aren't many children's films this summer (and the holiday weekend will help) while the latter had an effective teaser trailer (and tornadoes in 3-D should be a strong selling point).

[undeadmonkey]

I would put money on both of them flopping

[transformers2]

I would put money on both of them flopping

I would too, Into the Strom looks like a rejected ABC Family original movie.