Was It Worth It - The Films of February

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Shrykespeare
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Was It Worth It - The Films of February

Post by Shrykespeare »

Slightly better than January, but not much.




NG

Cheap PTA picks that failed to net a single point:

Girl on a Bicycle ($3U) - 5.6 UR.
In Secret ($3U) - 7.1 UR.
Barefoot ($3U) - 6.7 UR.
Two Lives ($3U) - 7.2 UR.



F

Winter's Tale ($11U, $11BO) - 0 T5, 0 PTA, 6.1 UR, $12M. Another disappointment for Colin.



D-

Vampire Academy ($9U, $9BO) - 0 T5, 2 PTA (Feb only), 6.6 UR, $8M. Epic fail.



D

Endless Love ($11U, $11BO) - 1 T5, 1 PTA, 6.3 UR, $23M. Some movies deserve to be remade. This wasn't one of them.



D+

Pompeii ($16U, $16BO) - 3 T5, 1 PTA (Feb only), 6.3 UR, $23M. Ashes to ashes, volcanic dust to volcanic u



C

About Last Night ($15U, $14BO) - 4 T5, 4 PTA, 6.3 UR, $48M. It's only because of Kevin Hart that it got this high a score.

3 Days to Kill ($11U, $11BO) - 5 T5, 2 PTA, 6.3 UR, $30M. Could have been worse.



C+

RoboCop ($14U, $14BO) - 5 T5, 3 PTA, 6.7 UR, $57M. You know, those numbers are pretty much identical to the Total Recall remake's numbers. Funny how that works.

The Last of the Unjust ($3U) - 3 PTA (Feb only), 7.4 UR. Meh.



B

The Monuments Men ($18U, $18BO) - 9 T5, 4 PTA, 6.3 UR, $77M. Damn fine job, George.

The Wind Rises ($5U) - 5 PTA, 8.1 UR. We always expect more from Miyazaki films, but rarely get it.



A-

Non-Stop ($17U, $17BO) - 10 T5, 5 PTA, 7.3 UR, $85M. There's no denying it: Liam can still pack 'em in.

Elaine Strich: Shoot Me ($3U) - 5 PTA, 7.6 UR. Not bad for an old broad.



A

Son of God ($7U, $7BO) - 5 T5, 3 PTA, 5.5 UR. It was a better pick in BO, but a big surprise in both.

Tim's Vermeer ($3U) - 10 PTA, 7.7 UR. Kudos to Penn & Teller. The first breakout documentary of the year.



A+

The Lunchbox ($3U) - 9 T5, 8.0 UR. A sweet little film that broke the mold for Hindi imports.




And the best pick of February, by a country mile:

A++

The LEGO Movie ($20U, $15BO) - 20 T5, 15 PTA, 8.3 UR, $248M. Those numbers don't lie. Those are the most surprising numbers for a film since Gravity.



Here's how my box office predictions fared this month:

HITS
RoboCop - Predicted $27/$63, Actual $21/$57
Endless Love - Predicted $11/$25, Actual $13/$23

NEAR MISSES
The Monuments Men - Predicted $22/$55, Actual $22/$77
Vampire Academy - Predicted $6/$12, Actual $4/$8
About Last Night - Predicted $25/$60, Actual $27/$48
Non-Stop - Predicted $25/$73, Actual $29/$85

EGREGIOUS MISSES
The LEGO Movie - Predicted $43/$145, Actual $69/$248
Winter's Tale - Predicted $15/$36, Actual $8/$12
Pompeii - Predicted $14/$40, Actual $10/$23
3 Days to Kill - Predicted $8/$16, Actual $12/$30
Son of God - Predicted $11/$28, Actual $26/$58


Ouch. Not a good batting average.
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W
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Re: Was It Worth It - The Films of February

Post by W »

Wow, possibly the best month ever for me. Everything I picked was in the top 8, and I picked all eight but Non-Stop.
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Re: Was It Worth It - The Films of February

Post by numbersix »

I had Endless Love and About Last Night on a few slates, hoping they would do a lot better than they did. Really affected my Feb league slates. Fortunately I relied heavily on Lego to keep me safe.

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Re: Was It Worth It - The Films of February

Post by Chienfantome »

ABout last night hurt a bit, I had it on quite a few slates, but since many of us had it, it wasn't that hurtful. I'm glad I packed Lego, Son of God and Non-Stop on many slates too. I probably took the Miyazaki on too many slates for what it got in the end, but it was a cheap mistake.
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Re: Was It Worth It - The Films of February

Post by W »

Chienfantome wrote:ABout last night hurt a bit, I had it on quite a few slates, but since many of us had it, it wasn't that hurtful. I'm glad I packed Lego, Son of God and Non-Stop on many slates too. I probably took the Miyazaki on too many slates for what it got in the end, but it was a cheap mistake.
The 8.1 rating always helps. I think that's probably the most overlooked part of Ultimate. It counts equally as much as the other three, but most seem to only look at it if its an awful rating. Probably because it can be harder to predict and it's not tracked every week like PTA, T5, and $. Depending on the month, the 8.1 could be more important than the 5 points.
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Re: Was It Worth It - The Films of February

Post by Chienfantome »

You're right W, it always seems considered a lesser factor in the game, but it's worth just as much.
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Re: Was It Worth It - The Films of February

Post by JohnErle »

And here's your Box Office ROI report:

Image

Apart from a handful of solid picks at the top, February was a month full of middling performers, and a few epic flops of January proportions.

Jesus fanboys came out on top in February, with Lego fanboys not far behind, and Liam Neeson's Non-Stop was the only other Non-Flop to pass the 5:1 ratio I usually look for.

In baseball they have something called The Mendoza Line, named after light-hitting shortstop Mario Mendoza, which says that anyone with a batting average under .200 is hitting below the Mendoza line and has no business being on a major league roster.

In box office leagues, anything below 4:1 has no business being on your slate, but I've been struggling to find an appropriate actor to name that ratio after. I've thought about calling it The Farrell Line, after Colin Farrell, but that doesn't quite roll off the tongue the way Mendoza line does. If anyone has any better suggestions, I'll use them in the future, but for now, anything below 4:1 is below the Farrell line.
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Re: Was It Worth It - The Films of February

Post by numbersix »

This is what happens when you become a militant atheist: you miss out on the God audience who flock to see crap like Son of God. And I'm still reluctant to pick up Heaven is For Real on any of my slates...

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Re: Was It Worth It - The Films of February

Post by JohnErle »

You need to be an opportunistic atheist, like me. I rode that Jeebus movie like it was Secretariat.

I didn't pick Noah, but it's still a long way from justifying its $22 price tag in Box Office leagues.

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Re: Was It Worth It - The Films of February

Post by numbersix »

Yeah, the boat's still out on Noah. Aha.

If the film opened well become of blockbuster fans then it will drop hard because of Cpn 2. If it opened well due to the religious actually loving it, then it may hold well. But considering the hold of God's Not Dead (which I perceive to be an act of defiance by the Christian community: "watch this instead of that Hollywood blasphemy"), I'm thinking it's the former.

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Re: Was It Worth It - The Films of February

Post by JohnErle »

numbersix wrote:If it opened well due to the religious actually loving it, then it may hold well. But considering the hold of God's Not Dead (which I perceive to be an act of defiance by the Christian community: "watch this instead of that Hollywood blasphemy"), I'm thinking it's the former.
Ditto. Although Noah's weekday numbers have been solid so far. That C Cinemascore should be bad for word of mouth, unless people pay to see it just so they can be outraged.

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Re: Was It Worth It - The Films of February

Post by Chienfantome »

Son of God brought so much goodness to my slates, I'm thinking about converting and stop that unrewarding atheist shit. I'm a believer now !
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Re: Was It Worth It - The Films of February

Post by Buscemi »

And then Mom's Night Out will open and make you regret that decision, Chien.
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