Rising and Falling Directors in 2012

[Chienfantome]

Frendo, about The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, you take your own responsability saying Boosch was the one who was right about it... He said all year long the film would be shit and grab no more than 50 million, while I'm only reading and hearing good word of mouth about it, it is getting awards recognition, and the film is on its way to $100 million at the BO.
So I can only object your affirmation

[Buscemi]

Box Office Mojo predicted $165 million and said it would be the next Da Vinci Code (except The Da Vinci Code had a name lead in Hanks, was a hot button topic for a few years and was rated PG-13, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo had none of that). The film may not even get a sequel (Sony is trying to do one with Steven Zallian having completed a script but Fincher isn't expected to return).

Deadline also called the box office a disappointment and expected a higher outcome.

This is doing on par with some predictions but below the Fincher fanboys' and the publicists' inflated expectations.

As for the Oscar buzz, it's a combination of having the right release date and the hype (plus Scott Rudin and David Fincher's shouting match with David Denby). Had it opened on any other month, we wouldn't be talking about it and Oscars. Had Drive or The Tree of Life been December openers, it will be on the same level of talk.

[NSpan]

Outside of overheard chatter about the books and the European films, I really don't know much about The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Nonetheless, I'm going to see it simply because it's a Fincher film. I think that reasoning coupled with johnny-come-lately fans of the series (and those who want to catch up on the original film adaptation first) may result in some decent legs for the film. The stellar reviews and Oscar-buzz certainly won't hurt, either.

You're right. Schiffer produced the film while the third member of The Lonely Island (Jorma Taccone) directed. But still, the film was a flop and and it's strike two for The Lonely Island's future in film.

However like Samberg, Vaughn and Hill are a hard sell on a film due to recent failures (in Hill's case) and/or pure ego (in Vaughn's case). Also as I said, audiences will have already had their sci-fi comedy fill with Men in Black 3.

Despite my nitpicking on the who's who of the Lonely Island, I actually agree that it'll tank. Nonetheless, I'm looking forward to anything by the man behind Hot Rod. MacGruber was enjoyable... but it's no Hot Rod.

I have similar expectations for Wanderlust. It might not make big money, but I'm personally excited to see it. Wain has only had one "miss" in his directorial career, IMO. The Ten wasn't so hot ... though it had a few moments (while it seems every anthology-style film seems to have some major weak-points). Other than that, I'm a huge fan of "The State," "Stella," Wet Hot American Summer, Role Models, and "Wainy Days." And he's still on his game judging by recent guest-directing/writing/acting on "Children's Hospital" -- one of the best shows on TV.

[Buscemi]

One of the things I've wondered about The State: how is it that the series (along with Wet Hot American Summer) suddenly got popular during the mid 2000's (during a time where the show was never on television and was held up by music rights)? Hardly anyone saw the show when was first on (MTV was more known for Beavis and Butt-head and its VJ's at the time) but around 2005, you suddenly had hipsters proclaiming their love for the show. The same goes for Wet Hot American Summer: no one saw the movie when it came out but a few years later, those same people who suddenly loved The State proclaimed their love for it.

For me, The Ten is Wain's best film because it didn't suffer from the overhype of a Wet Hot American Summer (which is really nothing more than Meatballs focused around adults).

[NSpan]

I was born in '82. I was The State's target demographic... and I happened to love it. I also happened to hate Beavis & Butthead.

[numbersix]

Boosch, was your argument against box office mojo alone? I don't think anyone really thought their prediction was accurate. And no one really trusts Nikki Fink, someone who likes to undercut every film in order to get attention. For me, Dragon Tattoo performed as expected. Which isn't hugely impressive considering its budget, but it certainly didnt' flop. Plus, it is already displaying impressive legs, suggesting that it's not a Fincher Fanboy film. As for its awards, it's hard to dismiss the film based on its release date alone. Everyone has responded well to Rooney Mara's performance and Fincher's direction, so regardless of its release date these would still be issues on voters mind (not that I think it's going to win any major awards. It won't).

[Buscemi]

Also, at least one major tracking site had The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo opening in the mid 40's (Sony even had Tuesday night screenings to meet these projections). It didn't come close to that number. The inflated online hype made the film seem much bigger than it really was. Definitely not a flop but not the big Christmas movie that many expected (and with it facing Sherlock Holmes and Mission: Impossible, it was always going to be the third choice).

[frendo]

I personally thought Dragon Tattoo would do better. I don't think it was the smash expected. I also wasn't a huge fan. Performances aside, it was pretty boring if you've already read the books (and there are plenty of films that I like along with the book, before anyone says it lol).

[Chienfantome]

But come on, who here thought it be compare to SHerlock Holmes at the Box-office ? No one. Most of us I'm sure thought if it can come close to $100 million, it will be a success, and that's what the film is doing.

[numbersix]

To put in context: of the R rated films released last year, Tattoo is the 6th highest. Out of the Top 5, 4 of them are comedies released during the summer, and the 4th is Paranormal Activity 3. Considering the legs the film has (it'll hit the 90m mark by Monday), it could reach $100m.

I think anyone expecting more than $100 was expecting too much, though to be honest not a huge amount of analysts were doing so.

Frendo, out of curiosity have you seen the Swedish film? It would be interesting to see which you prefer and why.

[frendo]

I have not watched the Swedish version yet, though I have it. I'm almost hesitant to now, due to how bored I was in the American version (and I really like Fincher's work usually).

[W]

I seriously thought Tattoo had at least $130-150 M in it when I drafted it in April.

[Buscemi]

I seriously thought Tattoo had at least $130-150 M in it when I drafted it in April.

It probably would have done that had it been 30-40 minutes shorter.

[W]

I don't know about that either way, but I think if it opened in November or the summer it might have.

[Buscemi]

I feel Halloween would have been the perfect date for the film. October 2011 was rather light on dark fare (there was Paranormal Activity 3, The Thing...and nothing else) and with a void caused by Lionsgate being too chickenshit to release The Possession, a film like The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo would have fared well in late October. Also, it would have been a good early start to the Holiday season (along with Puss in Boots).