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Top 5 Potential - November & December

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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby numbersix » October 31st, 2011, 5:51 pm

Buscemi wrote:Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close goes wide on January 20th. The Christmas Day run is limited.


Didn't know that, that's good to know!
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Ron Burgundy » October 31st, 2011, 7:16 pm

Boosh, until u win another superleague, i find it hard to listen to your advice. yes, the logic seems right, but there isnt often logic behind the success that we never saw coming. The Help, bigtime, howbout Limitless, barneys version, ok dont say dolphin tale, but who would have thought that something like Puss in boots would get less than 120m?
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Buscemi » October 31st, 2011, 7:33 pm

We all got Limitless wrong. No one expected $80 million on that one (not me, not Six, not Shryke, no one). And I didn't even predict Barney's Version (I knew it would be a serviceable limited release title, I just didn't take it).

As for Puss in Boots, it will not finish with a multiplier under 3. This isn't Megamind.
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby numbersix » October 31st, 2011, 7:39 pm

Ron, I think it's fair to say that even those who don't dominate the game can be right and have points, so it's worth arguing about. It doesn't make sense to argue "You haven't won many leagues, therefore you're probably wrong". A person can be right about a film's over or underperformance but still not be good at the game. I only say so because I felt proud myself for saying The Help would be a hit when most underestimated it. Didn't help my much in winning the leagues (I'm now out of everything besides HY BO), but my point stood.

Of course, the problem with Boosch and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo has been discussed over and over, so let's not go there again.
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Buscemi » October 31st, 2011, 7:52 pm

In the Christmas season, people are in the mood for something light and crowd-pleasing. Tron: Legacy, the Meet the Parents sequels, Avatar, Sherlock Holmes, the first two Alvin and the Chipmunks films, Marley and Me, National Treasure 2, Night At The Museum, The Chronicles of Narnia, all were the types of movies that please the crowd. Even True Grit had some comedic moments to balance out the revenge plot. We Bought A Zoo looks light and crowd-pleasing but it's got competition and the trailers don't seem to show who it's for (it's supposed to a family film but it's being promoted for adult audiences).

Meanwhile, it is rare for a dark film to do well in the Holiday season. Black Swan and I Am Legend are exceptions to the rule but had a draw to them (Black Swan had the hyped in advance sex scene and crossover appeal with teens and adults, I Am Legend had Will Smith). The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo has a lead that's box office poison and a sub-genre that's rarely successful (the action heroine). We saw how Sucker Punch fared earlier this year. This will do a little better than that film but the target audience will be at tried and true (not to mention more crowd-pleasing) series such as Sherlock Holmes and Mission: Impossible.
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Ron Burgundy » October 31st, 2011, 7:59 pm

ok, point taken, from six, actually i take it as a compliment, as i havent won any leagues myself...yet

Boosh, we will wait and see

Cmon, Black Swans sex scene was never the reason it was a success, thats crazy. It was just getting interest from the Oscar nom praise

Im still not sure if Mission Imp 4 will be a monster, even any good critically, has Tom lost his mojo?
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Buscemi » October 31st, 2011, 8:09 pm

But would Black Swan gotten to younger audiences (and $100 million) had the sex scene not been hyped months in advance?

Ghost Protocol is a new beginning for the franchise. Even if you don't like Tom, there's still much to look forward to in this one (Brad Bird as director, Jeremy Renner and Simon Pegg co-starring, etc.).

And no matter what all of you guys tell me, I'm sticking to my gut on The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo. It worked for me on similar hard sells such as Jennifer's Body and Sucker Punch (among others).
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Geezer » October 31st, 2011, 8:24 pm

numbersix wrote:For me, I feel that there's so much competition on Christmas week, especially when it comes to family films (Alvin 3, Tintin, Zoo, and arguably War Horse and Extremely Loud...) that it feels that at least 2 of them are going to lose. Zoo just seems like a lesser prospect for families. Sure, it could play like a Marley and Me but with Cameron Crowe behind it I feel it's just not gonna get the audiences.

What's your logic behind it doing so well, Geez?


Because I trust my girlfriend, first of all. When she sees a trailer and gets overwhelmingly excited months in advance, I know the female demographic is going to show up, and that is strong.

Secondly, January is always the feeding ground of Christmas holdover, so I expect the legs to be massive. I doubt parents will take their kids to see another damn Alvin and the Chipmunks movie multiple times, War Horse doesn't seem like a family film, and I don't know about Tintin, if its a breakout hit then I could be wrong on Zoo. I just think it looks like a safe, decent film, that pulls at the heartstrings of the common American, and people generally eat that shit right up. Plus Matt Damon is a positive. It could definitely play like Marley and Me, excellent comparison.
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Ron Burgundy » November 14th, 2011, 5:11 pm

Geez has a point with the Xmas holdover.

But anyway, looks like Puss in Boots might make it to 150mil after all, shame on me for jumping too quick.

Top 5 potential, im interested to see how New Years Eve and The Sitter will play out against the rest of the field. I think it could def suprise, i mean i had this gut feeling about Immortals, but only put in on 1 slate
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Brockster » January 2nd, 2012, 8:00 pm

Well let's see how I did :)

Tower Heist - 7 T5 Actual 6 T5
Harold and Kumar - 3 T5 Actual 3 T5
Jack and Jill - 8 T5 Actual 6 T5
Immortals - 6 T5 Actual 8 T5
J Edgar - 1 T5 Actual 1T5
Twilight - 17 T5 Actual 18 T5
Happy Feet - 13 T5 Actual 8 T5 (oops! lol)
Muppets - 15 T5 Actual 10 T5 (oops again!)
Arthur Christmas - 4 T5 Actual 5 T5
Hugo - 1 T5 Actual 4 T5
New Years Eve - 8 T5 Actual 7 T5
The Sitter - 1 T5 Actual 1 T5
Sherlock Holmes 8 T5 Actual 13 T5 so far (super oops)
Alvin and the Chipmunks - 10 T5 Actual 9 T5 so far
Tin Tin - 10 T5 Actual 1 T5 (I'm embarrassed)
MI4 - 8 T5 Actual 13 T5 so far (doubly embarrassed)
Girl With The Dragon Tattoo - 3 T5 Actual 5 T5 so far
We Bought a Zoo - 0 T5 Actual 0 T5

Well as usual, some hits and some big misses! As always I'm terrible in December! This was fun though...someone should do this in a regular basis...I think its fun to discuss strategy and predictions for the game.
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby numbersix » January 3rd, 2012, 4:29 am

Just checking mine too. Some good hits, some great misses. The Sitter nabbed 5 T5 points, though, not 1
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