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Top 5 Potential - November & December

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Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Brockster » October 28th, 2011, 9:59 am

Hola Mi Amigos,

We had somewhat of a good discussion yesterday regarding a few movies in December and their top 5 potential. Which got me thinking, how are the Top 5 points going to shake out for the rest of the year (Nov-Dec, not counting this weekend). I thought this was a better place to discuss/argue our opinions regarding the matter since I think we pissed Shryke off by filling up his thread regarding the standings :twisted: We used to have discussions about top 5, PTA, and BO potential all the time when guest columnists used to post their opinions, but we've kind of gotten away from that...and until yesterday I forgot how much fun it used to be to discuss/argue about it.

Here is how I see the rest of the year shaking out for Top 5 points...feel free to offer your opinions:

Tower Heist - 7 T5 (winning opening weekend, 4th place it's 2nd weekend). Price tag $21
Harold and Kumar - 3 T5 (3rd place opening weekend). Price tag $9
Jack and Jill - 8 T5 (winning opening weekend, 3rd place 2nd weekend). Price tag $16
Immortals - 6 T5 (2nd place opening weekend, 4th place 2nd weekend). Price tag $15
J. Edgar - 1 T5 (5th place opening weekend). Price tag $11
Twilight - 17 T5 (Winning opening weekend and 2nd weekend, 2nd place 3rd weekend, 3rd place on 4th weekend). Price tag $34
Happy Feet - 13 T5 (2nd place opening weekend, 3rd place on 2nd weekend, 3rd place on 3rd weekend, 4th place on 4th weekend, 5th place on 5th weekend). Price tag $25
Muppets - 15 T5 (2nd place opening weekend, winning its 2nd weekend, 2nd place on 3rd weekend, 4th place on 4th weekend). Price tag $19
Arthur Christmas - 4 T5 (4th place opening weekend, 4th place on 2nd weekend). Price tag $12
Hugo - 1 T5 (5th place opening weekend). Price tag $14
New Years Eve - 8 T5 (Winning opening weekend, 3rd place on 2nd weekend). Price tag $15
The Sitter - 1 T5 (5th place opening weekend).
Sherlock Holmes 8 T5 (Winning opening weekend, 5th place on 2nd weekend, 4th place on 3rd weekend). Price tag $22
Alvin and the Chipmunks - 10 T5 (2nd place opening weekend, 3rd place 2nd weekend, 3rd place on 3rd weekend). Price tag $19
Tin Tin - 10 T5 (Winning opening and 2nd weekend). Price tag $12
MI4 - 8 T5 (2nd place on opening and 2nd weekend). Price tag $13
Girl With The Dragon Tattoo - 3 T5 (4th place on opening weekend, 5th place on 2nd weekend). Price tag $10
We Bought a Zoo - 0 T5 (too crowded around Xmas to place). Price tag $7

Twilight, Happy Feet, and The Muppets are going to really benefit from a lack of competition...conversely Sherlock Holmes is going to suffer from more competition.

So...waiting to get blasted from someone, lol...I'm assuming Busc will be first to tell me I'm full of shit :)
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby numbersix » October 28th, 2011, 10:24 am

You're full of shit
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby numbersix » October 28th, 2011, 11:01 am

Tower Heist - 11 T5
Harold and Kumar - 3 T5
Jack and Jill - 8 T5
Immortals - 2 T5
J. Edgar - 1 T5
Twilight - 18 T5
Happy Feet - 10 T5
Muppets - 10 T5
Arthur Christmas - 1 T5
Hugo - 4 T5
The Descendants -1 T5
New Years Eve - 8 T5
The Sitter - 5 T5
Young Adult - 2 T5
Sherlock Holmes 13 T5
Alvin and the Chipmunks - 14 T5
Tin Tin - 4 T5
MI4 - 6 T5
Girl With The Dragon Tattoo - 1 T5
We Bought a Zoo - 0 T5
Extremely Loud - 1 T5
War Horse - 1 T5
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Buscemi » October 28th, 2011, 11:15 am

The Muppets has way too much competition (Happy Feet, Hugo and Arthur Christmas, for one). The last Muppet movie to be a bonafide hit was The Great Muppet Caper (which had the benefit of the show still being on when it was released) and the film appeals more to twenty-something types than kids (from what I've read from early screenings, which mentions that many of the jokes are references to previous projects). Also, the run time is reportedly over two hours (a kiss-of-death for a movie aimed towards small children).

At best, it will open to third (behind Happy Feet and Twilight) while Hugo gets the legs.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby numbersix » October 28th, 2011, 11:41 am

I think reboot fever is still a factor and the Muppets could surprise (it's marketing campaign has been really impressing the online community, at least). But you do have a point. I still could see it doing well, and see Happy Feet 2 underwhelming just like Kung Fu Panda 2 did. Opening against Twilight will really hurt it because only a certain age group (those under 12) will go see it.
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Brockster » October 28th, 2011, 11:49 am

six wrote:

You're full of shit


lol
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Brockster » October 28th, 2011, 11:51 am

To me it just seems like the right timing for a Muppets movie...I think it's going to surprise.

I think that there is enough lack of competition for Twilight, Muppets, and Happy Feet to all do well at the same time.
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Ron Burgundy » October 30th, 2011, 3:38 pm

well, im can u tell me why the pricing commitee made it 19 bucks, with hype like that, i doubt it will flop. If it were say 12 bucks, i reckon it would be on everyones slates.

Reading top 5 potential is good, but i still dont understand PTA, where a sleeper can win you a superleague
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Buscemi » October 30th, 2011, 4:35 pm

Immortals was priced at $16 and probably won't have a return investment of 2. The Three Musketeers was priced at $20 and will barely have a return investment of 1.
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Chienfantome » October 31st, 2011, 4:55 am

Wow, you guys think We bought a zoo won't get any Top 5 points ?! I know it's crowded, but still. It should manage to get a few.
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Geezer » October 31st, 2011, 10:47 am

I think We Bought a Zoo is this years Gran Torino
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Chienfantome » October 31st, 2011, 11:16 am

This year's Gran Torino seems like the very optimistic line of predictions, but I think even without going that far, it should do better than most expect.
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Buscemi » October 31st, 2011, 3:36 pm

This year's Gran Torino was The Help.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby numbersix » October 31st, 2011, 4:27 pm

For me, I feel that there's so much competition on Christmas week, especially when it comes to family films (Alvin 3, Tintin, Zoo, and arguably War Horse and Extremely Loud...) that it feels that at least 2 of them are going to lose. Zoo just seems like a lesser prospect for families. Sure, it could play like a Marley and Me but with Cameron Crowe behind it I feel it's just not gonna get the audiences.

What's your logic behind it doing so well, Geez?
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Re: Top 5 Potential - November & December

Postby Buscemi » October 31st, 2011, 4:49 pm

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close goes wide on January 20th. The Christmas Day run is limited.

The losers of the Christmas season (other than The Darkest Hour) will be We Bought A Zoo (Fox has Alvin a week earlier and Crowe lost his footing with audiences after Elizabethtown) and The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (too much competition and hard R-rated films rarely do well at Christmas).
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