SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/21/11

[Shrykespeare]

The Oscar hopefuls just continue to roll on. Who would have thought two months ago that True Grit would have a shot at actually out-earning Little Fockers? Or that Black Swan would rush right by The Tourist? Or that The King’s Speech would do better at the box office than Gulliver’s Travels? (Well, maybe that last one isn’t that big a surprise, but still…) There’s nothing quite as awesome in the Ultimate Game than a highly-acclaimed film that is given a relatively low price tag for the simple fact that it probably won’t go wide enough soon enough to produce in the Box Office category, but, subsequent to giving you awesome numbers in the PTA and User Rating categories, gives you boo-coo bucks as well, is there? This is certainly the only time of year where that seems to happen.

That being said, it was also a pretty good weekend for new films, as well. Barney’s Version was able to easily win the PTA crown in its first week, and The Green Hornet was able to pull in $34 million in its first three days, making it the third-largest OW for a January release ever (trailing only Cloverfield and the Star Wars Special Edition). The Dilemma was able to take second place with just over $17 million, though many pundits (yours included) predicted a significantly higher opening.

The first of four film’s I’ll be talking about today, all of which will be opening on January 21, is No Strings Attached, the latest directorial project from legendary helmer Ivan Reitman. Well-known for classic 80’s and 90’s comedies like Meatballs, Stripes, Ghost Busters, Twins, Kindergarten Cop and Dave, it’s been nearly 12 years since he’s been behind the camera for anything even moderately good (his last two films, Evolution and My Super Ex-Girlfriend, were major disappointments). Can he turn things around with this rom-com, which stars two of the most recognizable and beautiful young faces in the business today? Short answer: probably not.

The reason is simple: the romantic comedy genre, for some time now, has been foundering. It doesn’t matter how famous its cast is, or who directed it, the chances of it cracking the $50 million mark are about one in five, if 2010 is any indication. Near as I can figure, only four films billed as “romantic comedies” all of last year were commercial successes. Other hopefuls in that category that failed to meet expectations included Leap Year, When in Rome, She’s Out of My League, The Back-Up Plan, Just Wright, The Switch, Going the Distance, Morning Glory, Love and Other Drugs and How Do You Know. For a rom-com to prosper, you either need to have a primo release date (like around a major holiday, such as Valentine’s Day, $110 million), be a sequel to a bona fide success (like Sex and the City 2, $95 million), be a critical darling (like Easy A, $58 million), or just be lucky enough to not have much competition (like Life As We Know It, $53 million). Using those criteria, No Strings Attached is oh-for-three (no reviews yet, but I suspect they won’t even be close to Easy A).

The plot, in what seems to be the latest in a string of similarly-themed movies, centers on two young people: Natalie Portman (coming off the immense success of Black Swan and appearing later this year in both Your Highness and Thor) plays Emma, a very busy doctor who wants to have an emotion-free, purely sexual relationship, and ends up having one with Adam (Ashton Kutcher), her longtime friend. Of course, we know how these movies work: who wants to bet that they’ll actually fall in love with each other? (Oh, wait, the trailer says they do. Never mind.) Kevin Kline, Cary Elwes, Olivia Thirlby and Chris “Ludacris” Bridges costar.

Poised to debut in about 2,800 theaters this Friday, I fully expect No Strings Attached to underwhelm. If the combination of Ron Howard, Vince Vaughn and Kevin James couldn’t bear fruit, then why should this one? Plus, I haven’t seen hide not hair of Paramount’s marketing campaign for this film, which tells me all that I need to know. Still, I’ll be generous and predict $11 million for its OW, on its way to six Top 5 points, $28 million and a Rating around 6.3. For $11 in Ultimate ($12 in Box Office) you can do much, much better.

The second wide-release film this week barely qualifies as such: according to Box Office Mojo, The Way Back is only destined for 650 screens, which I hardly need remind you, is far too few to expect any Top 5 points, and far too many to expect any PTA. (Well, maybe that’s an exaggeration: with only nine films in contention to get PTA points in the January leagues this week, there is a chance that The Way Back could slip in for one or two, but definitely not more than that.)

It’s a shame, too, because on paper, it’s a very promising film. Peter Weir, the man responsible for directing such films as Gallipoli, The Year of Living Dangerously, Witness, The Mosquito Coast, Dead Poets Society and The Truman Show is back behind the camera for the first time since 2003’s Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World. The Way Back, inspired by the book The Long Walk by Slawomir Rawicz, boats a very impressive cast that includes Jim Sturgess, Colin Farrell, Ed Harris, Mark Strong and Saoirse Ronan.

Based on true events, The Way Back is basically the story of a group of prisoners who escape a 1930’s Siberian gulag and embark on a treacherous 4,000-mile journey to freedom in India. It actually sounds very intriguing, but I don’t know enough about the film’s distributor (Newmarket) to hazard a guess as to why it’s being given such a small release. The critics have adored it so far (82% on 23/28 reviews), as have viewers (7.7 on IMDb with over 1,000 votes). Bottom line: For $5, you probably want to pick a film that will produce in at least two categories: one is assured, but the chances of it giving you what you want in PTA are very slim. And unless it expands to triple its opening screen count (which I am virtually certain won’t happen), I can’t see it making the kind of dough that would justify spending $5 on it in Box Office either.

And now, a little bit about this week’s two limited-release films:

The Company Men ($8 Ult) – This film was supposed to debut last month with a one-week Oscar run in theaters, but that ended up not happening, so it’s official release date was bumped to this Friday. Since I’ve already talked about this film once before, I’ll just cut and paste what I said about it six weeks ago, with a few minor alterations.

This film, from director John Wells (Gigantic), deals with a subject that hits pretty close to home: corporate downsizing. And while the critics have been mostly favorable (74% on 28/38 reviews), all agree that the cast is phenomenal. And why not? There are four Oscar-winning actors in it! Front and center is the character of Bobby Walker (Ben Affleck), who loses his six-figure salary overnight and is forced to take a job installing drywall with his brother-in-law Jack (Kevin Costner). Also involved are ex-employees Phil Woodward (Chris Cooper) and Gene McLary (Tommy Lee Jones). Craig T. Nelson and Maria Bello also co-star.

Like The Way Back, I will not be recommending The Company Men based solely on its theater count, which is roughly 100. It has an outside chance to squeeze in with one or two PTA, but that’s nowhere near enough to spend a whole $8 on it. Its User Rating (6.9 with over 900 votes) is also not enough. And you sure as hell had better avoid spending $7 on it in Box Office. Wow, what a difference a month makes.

The Housemaid ($2 Ult) – This film, known in its native Korean tongue as Ha-nyeo or Hanyo, was just this past week added to the master film list. It carries with it the bargain-basement Ultimate price of only $2, and honestly, it’s about the only film this week that I would recommend taking. Not because it’s faultless, far from it, but because it seems to have more going for it than all the other stuff coming this week in relation to its asking price.

The Housemaid is an erotic thriller from director Im Sang-soo. It stars Do-yeon Jeon as Eun-yi, a young woman who is hired to be an au pair to a little girl named Nami by a rich businessman named Hoon (Jung-Jae Lee) and his wife Hae Ra (Seo Woo). But while Eun-yi is completely unable to form a connection with Nami, she is able to connect in a very tawdry and illicit way with Hoon. I’m not sure if the story will follow the same line that most films do that involve rich husbands screwing the help, but whatever the case, the few critics that have submitted a review to RT have not been impressed, with only 4/9 positive. Still, don’t let that be your only deciding factor: the film also competed for the coveted Palme d’Or award at the 2010 Cannes Film Festival, with Jeon winning for Best Actress.

IFC has The Housemaid debuting on only two screens this week, so if any film this week has a shot at unseating Barney’s Version at #1, it’s probably this one. Korean films often become reasonable sources of PTA, and its current Rating is 6.7 (with over 500 votes), so it won’t hurt you too much in that category either.


My predictions for the weekend of January 21-23, 2011:

1. The Green Hornet - $19 million
2. No Strings Attached - $11 million
3. The Dilemma - $9 million
4. True Grit - $9 million
5. The King’s Speech - $7 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we close out January with four new titles, including: The Mechanic, the latest action film starring Jason Statham; The Rite, a horror/thriller starring Anthony Hopkins; Biutiful, a critically-acclaimed drama starring Javier Bardem; and From Prada to Nada, a riches-to-rags rom-com starring Camilla Belle, Alexa Vega and April Bowlby.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week: Kid Rock (40 on 1/17), James Earl Jones (80 on 1/17), Shawn Wayans (40 on 1/19), and Placido Domingo (70 on 1/21).

Later!

[Buscemi]

The current tracking on No Strings Attached is in the mid 20's, which surprises me since marketing has been weak and no one seems to like Ashton Kutcher anymore (based on the performance of Killers combined with his recent infidelity issues). But then again, people saw Takers despite the fact that Chris Brown beats women and sings about it. I'll go with $18 million before a quick drop.

The Way Back is tracking at low single digits but it is only opening in 650 theatres. I'll go with $2.5 million but it should stick around due to Oscars (where it should get a couple of nominations due to it being Peter Weir).

I'll predict...

1. No Strings Attached $18 million
2. The Green Hornet $17 million
3. True Grit $8 million
4. The Dilemma $7 million (word of mouth has been poor)
5. The King's Speech $6.5 million

[numbersix]

I'd be surprised to see NSA hit that low. It's an attempt at a "fresh" idea (yeah, I know it isn't, but this may get the guys in instead of just the gals). Kutcher isn't liked, but his rom-coms generally do okay. And of course there's Portman, who has won a Golden Globe and will win an Oscar. Not to mention her recent married-and-engaged status has raised her profile beyond the fantasies of fanboys. And it's the only wide release of the week. I'm gonna say $20 mil opening and a big drop following.

1. NSA $20m
2. Green Hornet $18m
3. The Dilemma $9m
4. True Grit $7m
5. The King's Speech $7m

I'd be surprised to see The Way Back get any Oscar noms, to be honest.

[transformers2]

No Strings Attached Should do about 18-20 in it's opening weekend, It has a shot at 50 mill, but I doubt it. I know this doesn't effect its box office, but I watched the red band trailer and it's actually pretty funny, I might actually see this movie on DVD now.

[Buscemi]

I'd be surprised to see The Way Back get any Oscar noms, to be honest.

It's Peter Weir. Even his lesser-known films (such as Fearless and The Year of Living Dangerously) managed at least one nomination.

[numbersix]

Perhaps, but I don't see it getting anything in picture, direction, acting, or writing

[Buscemi]

Current tracking:

No Strings Attached $20 million (going down)
The Way Back $1.5 million (no major change)

[Buscemi]

Early Friday numbers:

No Strings Attached $7,300,000 (looks like people do still care about Ashton Kutcher)
The Way Back $325,000 (not surprised here, the Friday evening showing I went to had just 12 people inside)
The Company Men $170,000

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates


No Strings Attached, $7.3M
The Green Hornet, $5.1M
The Dilemma, $3.0M
The King's Speech, $2.1M
True Grit, $2.1M
Black Swan, $1.8M
Little Fockers, $1.2M
The Fighter, $1.2M
Tron Legacy, $930K
Yogi Bear, $740K

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Yeah, we had sellouts both tonight and Friday night for NSA. I won't be surprised if it isn't higher than 20M for the weekend.

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Estimates


Top 5:
5 points - No Strings Attached, $20.3M
4 points - The Green Hornet, $18.1M
3 points - The Dilemma, $9.7M
2 points - The King's Speech, $9.2M
1 point - True Grit, $8M

PTA:
5 points - Barney's Version
4 points - The Housemaid
3 points - The Company Men
2 points - No Strings Attached
1 point (Nov/Dec leagues) - The Illusionist
1 point (Jan leagues) - The Green Hornet

The Way Back premiered with $1.4M and a PTA of $2,254.

In other news, the third Narnia movie just broke $100M.


User Ratings:

No Strings Attached - 6.0
The Way Back - 7.6
The Company Men - 6.9
The Housemaid - 6.7

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Actuals


Top 5:
5 points - No Strings Attached, $19.7M
4 points - The Green Hornet, $17.7M
3 points - The Dilemma, $9.1M
2 points - The King's Speech, $7.9M
1 point - True Grit, $7.3M

#15. The Way Back, $1.2M


PTA:
5 points - The Housemaid, $9,100
4 points - Barney's Version, $8,938
3 points - No Strings Attached, $6,512
2 points - The Company Men, $6,111
1 point - Phil Ochs: There But For Fortune, $5,918

So Housemaid beats out Barney's Version for the PTA crown after all. And that now makes 10 PTA points for Phil Ochs.