SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/14/11

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/14/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Well, 2011 is now officially underway. Though Season of the Witch made a predictably unimpressive debut, now is about the time that, little by little, the December holdovers will start to lose their steam as they are gradually replaced in theaters by January releases. But let’s hear it for Oscar hopefuls like True Grit (up to $110 million, winning the box office in its third week and becoming, by far, the Coen Brothers’ highest-grossing film), Black Swan ($61 million and cracking the Top 5 for the first time since its release a month ago), The King’s Speech ($33 million and STILL earning PTA), and The Fighter ($57 million, considerably more than I thought it could ever do). These films will probably be in theaters until the Academy Awards, and some of them probably for a month or so afterwards if they end up taking home statuettes. Of course, the leagues they matter in may be over by then, but, hey…

As I have said repeatedly, January is usually a dumping ground for studios. However, there is almost always one or two titles that at least have a chance to break out at the box office. You know, films like Taken ($145 million), Paul Blart: Mall Cop ($146 million) and The Book of Eli ($94 million). It’s not exactly a month for cerebral dramas, but it is a breeding ground for action flicks, horror movies, and silly comedies. The two major films debuting this week definitely fit those categories.

The first of those films is The Green Hornet, and yes, it is the same character that debuted as a radio serial way back in the 1930’s. It also became a very popular comic book as well as a short-lived television series starring Van Williams and the late, great Bruce Lee (it tried to capitalize on the popularity of the original Batman TV show but apparently failed). And now, it’s been turned into a full-scale action comedy, and it’s being directed by someone you might not expect to venture into this genre: Michael Gondry (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Be Kind Rewind).

Hornet stars very popular comedic actor Seth Rogen as Britt Reid, a ne’er-do-well playboy who squanders his father’s wealth on booze, women, and other swanky trappings. However, when his father James (Tom Wilkinson), the head of a media empire, dies, Britt realizes that the time has come at last from him to become a responsible adult. Things then take a turn for the cool when he meets a mysterious man named Cato (Chinese actor Jay Chou), a martial-arts expert who was also James’ confidant. Together, the duo decide to use their resources and wealth to become crimefighters, complete with an array of high-tech weapons and a souped-up Chrysler. With the help of Britt’s new secretary (Cameron Diaz), Britt learns that a Russian gangster (Inglourious Basterds’s Oscar-winning Christophe Waltz) is controlling the city’s underworld, and he and Cato must find a way to take him down.

Frankly, this is about the only film in January that I’m actually excited to see. Rogen is an excellent comedic actor, and as long as they don’t reduce Waltz to a screaming, gibbering cardboard-cutout bad guy, The Green Hornet should be quite entertaining. Whether it has the juice to get to $100 million, only time will tell. For now, and based on its impressive platform of over 3,500 theaters, I will predict an OW of $28 million, on its way to eleven Top 5 points, four PTA, a good Rating near 6.8, and a total run of $84 million. In the just-underway January leagues, it’s quite tempting to forego January altogether and load up with films from February and March only, but you may want to think about adding The Green Hornet as well. It’s $14 in Ultimate and $16 in Box Office, and it’s really the only film in all of January that has a shot at being #1 for two straight weeks. I’d take it if I were you.

The other major film this week is The Dilemma, a comedy from Universal that features three very recognizable names: Vince Vaughn, Kevin James and Ron Howard. Howard, who has spent the last decade doing action thrillers (Da Vinci Code and its sequel) and stirring dramas (Cinderella Man, Frost/Nixonand A Beautiful Mind), is helming his first comedy since How the Grinch Stole Christmas in 2000. And he’s got two very popular comedic actors with proven track records: Vince Vaughn had big hits with Old School, Dodgeball, Wedding Crashers, The Break-Up, Four Christmases and Couples Retreat. James, of course, was the star of the TV show The King of Queens, as well as hits like Hitch, I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry, and the aforementioned Paul Blart: Mall Cop.

The premise: Ronny Valentine (Vaughn) inadvertently catches the wife (Winona Ryder) of his best friend and business partner Nick Backman (James) with another, much younger man (Channing Tatum) and is unsure just how he should let Nick know of his wife’s infidelity – or, indeed, if he should tell him at all. Jennifer Connelly, Queen Latifah, and Howard’s brother Clint co-star.

Honestly, The Dilemma looks pretty lame, but what do I know? These three names put together can’t be ignored, so I’ll envision an OW of $22 million, on its way to nine Top 5 points, two PTA and about $57 million. For $13 in Ultimate ($15 million in Box Office), it’s an okay deal, but I wouldn’t count on the User Rating to help you all that much. I wouldn’t count on the critics helping you out that much either.

The first of two limited-release films this week is Barney’s Version, distributed by Sony Classics. Directed by Richard Lewis (no, not the manic-depressive comedian), Barney’s Version is based on the bestselling novel of the same name by author Mordecai Richler. The story, written in autobiographical form by main character Barney Panofsky, stars Paul Giamatti as the titular Barney.

IMDb describes the plot as follows: “The picaresque and touching story of the politically incorrect, fully lived life of the impulsive, irascible and fearlessly blunt Barney Panofsky.” It’s the type of movie, I think, that’s really hard to sum up in a few words, so I won’t go beyond that. The film also stars Rosamund Pike, Mark Addy, Scott Speedman, Minnie Driver, Dustin Hoffman, Bruce Greenwood, David Cronenberg (yes, the director) and Atom Egoyan (yes, also the director).

Barney’s Version may be a very good choice for only $5. With only a handful of films even up for PTA consideration this month (five total), and given that this film will only be opening in a handful of theaters in NY and LA, you could easily get your money’s worth. It’s also got a very decent Rating (7.2/285 votes) and an impressive RT score (80% on 20/25), and it could easily hang on for multiple weeks.

This weekend’s fourth film, Ranchero, as it turns out, will not be debuting this week after all. After some research, I’ve discovered that it was bumped without my knowledge to an undisclosed date in March of this year. If you have it on your slate, remove it (believe me, I wasn’t going to recommend it anyway).


My predictions for the weekend of January 14-16, 2011:

1. The Green Hornet - $28 million
2. The Dilemma - $22 million
3. True Grit - $11 million
4. Black Swan - $7 million
5. Little Fockers - $7 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, three more films hit theaters, and they are: No Strings Attached, a romantic comedy with Ashton Kutcher and Natalie Portman; The Way Back, an escape-from-prison film starring Jim Sturgess, Colin Farrell, and Ed Harris; and The Company Men, the drama with Ben Affleck, Tommy Lee Jones and Kevin Costner that was supposed to debut last month but didn’t. There’s also a very small chance that the Korean drama The Housemaid may be added to the roster as the last minute.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week: Mary J. Blige (40 on 1/11), Kirstie Alley (60 on 1/12), Rush Limbaugh (60 on 1/12), Julia Louis-Dreyfus (50 on 1/13), Faye Dunaway (70 on 1/14), and Charo (60 on 1/15).

Later!



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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/14/11

Post by Buscemi »

I'll also say The Green Hornet will be Number 1. Early reviews are very positive and I believe that Seth Rogen will silence his critics that say he can't play serious.

The Dilemma looks terrible (and as much as I love Jennifer Connelly, I will not be seeing the film) but people don't seem to mind Vince Vaughn being an ego-driven asshole (apparently, the film was supposed to be much darker, have an R rating and take place in New York before Vaughn got a hold of the script and forced enough changes to make it look like his previous film, Couples Retreat). It should come close but probably won't beat The Green Hornet.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/14/11

Post by numbersix »

I'm gonna take a risk and disagree. Despite the trailers improving and the test screenings doing well, I don't see Green Hornet breaking out. Rogen as a superhero just doesn't fit well. I'd be surprised if this opened much beyond Kick-Ass to be honest.

Meanwhile, while The Dilemma doesn't look great to me, broad comdies over a holiday weekend can do well. Paul Blart made 31 mill 2 years ago, and The Dilemma could indeed do the same.

3-Day
1. The Dilemma: 30mil
2. The Green Hornet: 25mil
3. True Grit: 8mil
4. Meet the Fockers: 7mil
5. Tron Legacy: 6mil

I think Blue Valentine is expanding so I could see Barney's Version winning the PTA crown (for Jan leagues at the least).

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/14/11

Post by Buscemi »

Didn't they also say that Robert Downey Jr. wouldn't fit well as Iron Man?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/14/11

Post by undeadmonkey »

I agree with Six's rankings, but the numbers are way too high for dilemma and green hornet, i would put them closer to $22M and $17M, respectively.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/14/11

Post by Buscemi »

Early tracking:

The Green Hornet: high $30 million
The Dilemma: mid $20 million
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/14/11

Post by transformers2 »

I think The Green Hornet should do well, I think it will be the highest grossing film of January.
My predictions for this weekend
1.The Green Hornet $30 Mil
2.The Dillemma $21 Mil
3.True Grit $9 Mil
4.Little Fockers $8 Mil
5.Tron: Legacy $6 Mil
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/14/11

Post by Buscemi »

New tracking:

The Green Hornet $42 million
The Dilemma $23 million

Both four-day.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/14/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Four-day? Is Monday a holiday?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/14/11

Post by Brockster »

MLK day.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/14/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Oh yeah. Unless it's a holiday you usually get off from work, I probably will forget about it.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/14/11

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts:

The Green Hornet - 3,584
The Dilemma - 2,941
Barney's Version - 4

Expansions:

Black Swan - 2,328 (from 1,584)
The King's Speech - 1,543 (from 758)
Blue Valentine - 230 (from 40)
Rabbit Hole - 100 (from 34)


Next week's releases:

No Strings Attached - 2,800
The Way Back - U/A
The Company Men - U/A
The Housemaid - 2
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/14/11

Post by Buscemi »

I've been reading The Way Back will be in about 500-600 theatres.

Edit: it's been confirmed for 650 theatres.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/14/11

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

I'm hoping Blue Valentine expands to at least 500 next week, cause I really wanna see it.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/14/11

Post by W »

I'm anxious to see if I did the right thing between Green Hornet and The Dilemma in Ultimate. I switched from Hornet to Dilemma, then realized Hornet was in 3D+IMAX and switched back. I took both of them in BO.
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