SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/7/11

[Shrykespeare]

2011. It’s been a year since we started things in earnest over at the Italian game-site. And while the final results of the 2010 Super Leagues have not been made official as of this moment, congratulations to all those who played, and especially all those who made it through to the end.

From what donnie tells me, there will be further developments regarding the game within the next few months. Maybe not the cosmetic changes to the American page of the site that we were hoping for, but perhaps something even better. From what she has told me, the Italian team has met with an organization called “The Space” (cue creepy music), that would like to distribute the game exclusively, and have suggested that a Facebook version of the game be created. That is where the priorities have lain over the past few months, which is why superficial changes to the game that we are currently playing haven’t taken place. So, let me just say, patience, people!

Donnie has a much better handle on the ins and outs of the situation better than I, so I will leave it to her to explain what’s going on. At the moment, I think the biggest wrinkle that needs to be ironed out is that a full-scale version of the game, which would involve prizes, would not be able to use directly-linked stats from IMDb and BOM. The information from those sites is free as long as they are not used for “business” purposes. Because if it is used for “business” purposes, there is a hefty free that has to be paid (think five figures). The bottom line is, in the meantime, I’m more than happy with the current version of the game, and, with a whole new batch of Super Leagues beginning this week, there’s no time to dawdle.

Of course, at this exact time last year, Avatar was busy blowing box office records and Ultimate game Top 5 records to tiny bits, on its way to becoming the highest grossing film of all time. And while there are a few holdovers from Christmas that are still hanging around, there is nothing even close to Jim Cameron’s behemoth in terms of remaining potential. Come to that, there’s not much even close to the potential of Sherlock Holmes, either.

Having those two films in theaters probably bolstered the bottom line of a few other, lesser, films, such as 2010’s leadoff hitter, Daybreakers, which bowed to a respectable $15 million on its OW (though it bottomed out severely after that). 2011 starts off with a mixture of big-budget films currently fading (Little Fockers, Tron Legacy, The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader, Yogi Bear) and a slew of Oscar hopefuls who have made some very respectable splashes at the box office themselves (True Grit, The Fighter, Black Swan, The King’s Speech), as well as only one new film, entitled Season of the Witch.

This film was originally scheduled to be released last March, but Lionsgate pulled the plug on it. Despite being screened as early as December 2009, the film was eventually dropped. However, Rogue Pictures and Relativity Media picked it up, and it has the dubious honor of being the first major film to hit theaters in 2011. Directed by Dominic Sena (Swordfish, Gone in 60 Seconds), Season of the Witch stars bad-yet-somehow-almost-enjoyable-action-film star Nicolas Cage as a 14th-century crusader named Behmen, who returns home to find his homeland devastated by the Black Plague.

One of the local churches has branded a young girl named Anna (Claire Foy) a witch who is responsible for the plague, so they give Behmen, along with his comrade Felson (Hellboy himself, Ron Perlman), the task of transporting Anna to a remote abbey so that the monks there can perform some kind of ritual that they hope will end the plague. Um… not sure it works like that, but good luck to ‘em.

Like I said, Nic Cage still seems to be the go-to guy for any movie where he gets to wear his hair long and generally kick ass. As long as one in three films he appears in achieves success, this is a trend that is not likely to stop. Between this and next month’s Drive Angry, I hope his third film of the year has more potential.

Despite being shown in about 2,500 theaters, expect Season of the Witch to open small. If it’s fortunate, it will creep over the eight-figure mark in its first three days, but I don’t think it will do that. Say, $9 million on its way to $21 million total. But the news isn’t all bad, and there are three very good reasons why this might not be the horrendous pick you might think: 1) In the January Ultimate leagues, remember that December movies are NOT counted when it comes to PTA. What this means is, with only two films this week that are being counted in the game, Witch is guaranteed no fewer than four PTA points, maybe more. 2) With over 300 votes in the can at IMDb, Witch currently sports a Rating of 7.1. I fully expect it to go down to the low-to-mid-6’s after its release, but, for a film with Witch’s pedigree, that’s really not that horrible. 3) It’s only $6 in both leagues. Now, in Box Office, I wouldn’t not advise taking this, but in Ultimate, it could give you number that are at least respectable stats in two of the four categories. There are few guarantees in this game, so perhaps this is one you should consider.

The only other film up for consideration this week is a documentary entitled Phil Ochs: There But For Fortune, and it will be opening on Wednesday at New York City’s IFC Center (and nowhere else, apparently). For those of you who don’t know who Phil Ochs is, he was an American-born protest and folk singer/songwriter who was known for his “sharp wit, sardonic humor, earnest humanism, political activism, insightful and alliterative lyrics, and haunting voice.”

During the tumultuous 60’s, Ochs performed at many anti-Vietnam and civil rights rallies, was a contemporary of Bob Dylan, and is probably one of the most influential figures of the decade that no one remembers. Sadly, his story did not end well: a protest he staged at the Democratic National Convention in 1968 led to a police riot, which left him emotionally scarred. He became afflicted with alcoholism and bipolar disorder, and finally committed suicide in 1976. Director Kenneth Bowser has compiled stock footage of some of Ochs’ live performances, as well as interview segments with various musicians and fans, including Joan Baez and Sean Penn.

As I said earlier, there are very few guarantees in the Ultimate game. However, There But For Fortune is one of those few. For the bargain-basement price of only $3, you can get at least four PTA points (possibly more, depending on how Season of the Witch does, as well as how it holds next week). Any seasoned game veteran will tell you that if a PTA-only pick that gives you a PTA number that is higher than its price tag, it’s a good buy. The User Rating is not likely to hurt you too much, either.


My predictions for the weekend of January 7-9, 2011:

1. True Grit - $14 million
2. Little Fockers - $12 million
3. Tron Legacy - $10 million
4. Season of the Witch - $9 million
5. Yogi Bear - $7 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, January gets into full swing with four more titles, including: The Green Hornet, a comedy-action crime caper starring Seth Rogen; The Dilemma, a Ron Howard-directed romantic comedy featuring Vince Vaughn and Kevin James; Barney’s Version, a limited-release drama starring Paul Giamatti and Dustin Hoffman; and Ranchero, a 2008 drama starring Danny Trejo that is finally being given a theatrical release.

Later!

[BanksIsDaFuture]

You don't think Country Strong will crack the Top 5?

[Shrykespeare]

It might, but not by much. 1,500 theaters is still well below every other film in the Top 5.

[Buscemi]

Also, the reviews have been awful (20% on Rotten Tomatoes).

[numbersix]

True Grit beating Little Fockers? Who would have known a Western directed by the Coen brothers would beat a family-oriented Christmas tentpole? It's possible, though I'm not convinced.

I could see Season of the Witch doing lower. It is Relativity distributing, after all. It could open to as low as 5mil, though that still gives it a chance to make the Top 5.

Country Strong did better than expected in the world of PTA, but as a wide film I see it failing. There's just 0 buzz.

[transformers2]

I think Country Strong will grap a Top 5 point, It has the southern audience and country music fans will most likely see it.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Well, whether it flops or not, Sony did a great job marketing it to country music fans.

[Buscemi]

Even down to making the title grammatically incorrect!

[Buscemi]

Rotten Tomatoes ratings:

Season of the Witch: 2% (yes, 2%)
Country Strong: 16% (this actually managed to get lower)

[Shrykespeare]

My God, 2%. 1/55. The only critic who's liked it is Tom Huddleston of "Time Out". There goes his rep (assuming he has/had one).

[Buscemi]

Weekend Estimates

1. True Grit (Paramount) Week 3 [3,124 Theaters]
Friday $4M, Estimated Weekend $13.5M, Estimated Cume $109M

2. Little Fockers (Universal) Week 3 [3,675 Theaters]
Friday $3.6M, Estimated Weekend $13.2M, Estimated Cume $123.5M

3. Season Of The Witch (Relativity) NEW [2,816 Theaters]
Friday $3.6M, Estimated Weekend $9.2M

4. Country Strong (Screen Gems/Sony) Week [1,424 Theaters]
Friday $2.6M, Estimated Weekend $7.5M

5. Tron: Legacy 3D (Disney) Week 4 [3,013 Theaters]
Friday $2.5M, Estimated Weekend $8M, Estimated Cume $146.1M

6. Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Week 6 [1,584 Theaters]
Friday $2.3M, Estimated Weekend $7.5M, Estimated Cume $60.6M

7. The Fighter (Relativity/Paramount) Week 5 [2,528 Theaters]
Friday $2M, Estimated Weekend $6.5M, Estimated Cume $57.3M

8. The King's Speech (The Weinstein Co) Week 7 [758 Theaters]
Friday $1.7M, Estimated Weekend $5.5M, Estimated Cume $32M

9. Yogi Bear 3D (Warner Bros) Week 4 [3,288 Theaters]
Friday $1.1M, Estimated Weekend $5.2M, Estimated Cume $74M

10. Chronicles Of Narnia 3D (Fox) Week 5 [2,814 Theaters]
Friday $1M, Estimated Cume $4.7M, Estimated Cume $94.8M

[Shrykespeare]

Looks like my estimates are going to be very close.

Friday Estimates:

True Grit, $4.45M
Little Fockers, $4.25M
Season of the Witch, $3.7M
Tron Legacy, $2.7M
Country Strong, $2.6M
Black Swan, $2.4M
The Fighter, $2.1M
The King's Speech, $1.76M
Yogi Bear, $1.3M
The Tourist, $1.2M
Narnia 3, $1.185M
Tangled, $1.155M
Gulliver's Travels, $1.1M

[Shrykespeare]

1. True Grit - $14 million
2. Little Fockers - $12 million
3. Tron Legacy - $10 million
4. Season of the Witch - $9 million
5. Yogi Bear - $7 million


Sunday Estimates:

Top 5:
5 points - True Grit, $15 million ($110M)
4 points - Little Fockers, $13.8 million ($124M)
3 points - Season of the Witch, $10.7 million
2 points - Tron Legacy, $9.8 million ($148M)
1 point - Black Swan (!), 8.35 million ($61M)
Country Strong, $7.3 million
The Fighter, $7 million ($58M)
The King's Speech, $6.8 million ($33M)
Yogi Bear, $6.8 million ($76M)

So I was indeed pretty close. Country Strong did indeed miss the Top 5, and True Grit takes first place for the first time (and probably the only time).

PTA (Nov and Dec leagues):
5 points - Blue Valentine
4 points - Another Year
3 points - The Illusionist
2 points - Somewhere
1 point - The King's Speech

PTA (Jan leagues):
unknown. No word yet on Phil Ochs. It and SotW will be getting 4 or 5 points each.

[Brockster]

Looks like Phil Ochs wins the weekend.

[Shrykespeare]

Wow. You're right, Brockster! Glad I actually took it in a few leagues!

Sunday Actuals:

Top 5:
5 points - True Grit, $14.6M
4 points - Little Fockers, $13.5M
3 points - Season of the Witch, $10.6M
2 points - Tron Legacy, $10.1M
1 point - Black Swan, $8.1M

PTA (Nov, Dec leagues):
5 points - Phil Ochs: There But For Fortune
4 points - Blue Valentine
3 points - Another Year
2 points - The Illusionist
1 point - Somewhere

PTA (Jan leauges):
5 points - Phil Ochs: There But For Fortune
4 points - Season of the Witch


User Ratings:
Season of the Witch - 5.9
Phil Ochs: There But For Fortune - 8.9 (with only 18 votes, may go down)