SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/22, 12/25

[Shrykespeare]

For those of you who don’t know, about a dozen of us who frequent the message boards started a countdown of our 100 Favorites Movies of All Time. At the end of this week, we’ll be very very close to being halfway done. So far, many films have made numerous appearances, including Reservoir Dogs, Shaun of the Dead, Jurassic Park and Sin City. If anyone else would like to cobble together their own list and join us, please contact me on the Boards, by PM or by e-mail (shrykespeare42@gmail.com). If you’re game, please join us! It doesn't matter how old you are, where you live, or what your tastes are. Believe me, the dozen of us currently engaged in this are all over the map!

Last week, Tron: Legacy earned $44 million in its OW, which is pretty remarkable considering it’s a sequel to a film that came 28 years ago. Well, that and the lackluster reviews. And hats off once again to The King’s Speech, which rebounded to take the PTA crown once again. Perhaps the #1 Best Picture contender will be expanding to 600 locations this Christmas, so be sure and catch it!

This week we enter what can probably be termed the final leg of the holiday season, as there are no wide-release films coming next week and only one the following week. Therefore, the films that comprise this weekend’s Top 5 will probably be there for three weeks. There are three films scheduled to go wide, and three other strong PTA candidates being given limited releases as well. That’s a lot of ground to cover, so let’s get to it.

In fall 2000, Universal released a screwball comedy called Meet the Parents. In it, male nurse Gaylord “Greg” Focker (Ben Stiller) had to attempt to win over his girlfriend Pam’s folks, especially her father, Jack Byrnes (Robert DeNiro), a retired CIA agent. Despite more awkward moments than you can shake a taser at, Greg was eventually grudgingly welcomed and he was able to propose to Pam (Teri Polo). Four years later, we are introduced to Greg’s rather unconventional parents in Meet the Fockers, and that film ended with Greg and Pam being married by Pam’s ex-fiancée Kevin (Owen Wilson). Meet the Fockers earned a whopping $279 million domestically and came a hair’s-breadth away from toppling Home Alone as the highest-grossing non-animated comedy of all time.

The third chapter of the Focker saga, entitled Little Fockers, takes up the story several years later, when Greg and Pam have five-year-old twins. According to the one-sheet, Greg is “going through a midlife crisis as he ponders the rest of his life, especially the issues of being a good father and provider”. Of course, the movie wouldn’t be complete if it didn’t involve another battery of awkward throw-downs between Greg and Jack, would it? All of the primary actors return for this third chapter, including Stiller, DeNiro, Polo, Wilson, Blythe Danner, Dustin Hoffman, and Barbara Streisand. Jessica Alba also joins the fun as a pharmaceutical-representative exec who is attracted to Greg (uh-oh), as does Laura Dern and Harvey Keitel.

I’ll be honest: I have never had any interest in any of these movies, and I have even less for this one, given that the trailers have shown projectile vomiting and silly Viagra-induced awkwardness. But I can’t deny history. $445 million for two comedies is almost unheard of, and I will not be selling Little Fockers short, even though the directorial reins have been handed over from the tried-and-true hands of Jay Roach to Paul Weitz (American Pie). Still, this has been a terrible season for comedies, as Morning Glory, Love and Other Drugs and How Do You Know have all underperformed despite being well-cast. On the other hand, Little Fockers is not a romantic comedy, so it has that going for it (maybe).

Little Fockers opens on Wednesday in around 3,500 locations, and I am going to predict an OW of $43 million ($64 million for the five-day weekend). Because of the lack of competition, it could earn as many as sixteen or seventeen Top 5 points, which, for $23 in Ultimate, is outstanding. Its User Rating probably won’t hamstring you too much (the first two films had Ratings of 7.1 and 6.4, respectively). However, I am leery of projecting that this film will break the bank like the last one did, for the simple fact that no film in the last two months has really overachieved to any great degree. So I will predict that Little Fockers will end its run at $155 million, which, again, is a pretty good result for $23 in Ultimate (as well as $24 in Box Office).

When Jonathan Swift wrote Gulliver’s Travels, I can’t envision what he would have thought had he seen how director Rob Letterman (Shark Tale, Monsters vs. Aliens) would “re-imagine” it three centuries later. Long hailed as one of the greatest adventure stories ever written, it has been modernized for present-day audiences starring Jack Black in the title role of Lemuel Gulliver, who is not an adventurer but a poor schlub who works in the mail room of an unnamed New York newspaper. He hopes to one day make it as a travel writer, however, mostly to impress his editor (Amanda Peet) who he has a thing for, so he jumps at the chance when she assigns him to do a story on the Bermuda Triangle.

One plot device later, Gulliver awakens in the land of Lilliput, whose denizens are only several inches tall. The land is ruled over by a royal family (much like England), who are not sure what to make of the giant in their midst. So, of course, Gulliver lies his ass off to make himself important, and befriends a diminutive commoner (Jason Segel) who has a crush of his own on the local princess (Emily Blunt). T.J. Miller, Billy Connolly, Catherine Tate and Romany Malco co-star, and there are a few narrative voiceovers by… Ozzy Osbourne?! Huh.

Unfortunately, the most recent trailer for this film basically told the entire story in 2½ minutes, which is something I hate. So it’s a buddy comedy, a fish-out-of-water comedy, and a “loser-finds-a-way-to-win” comedy all in one, set against the backdrop of one of the most famous fictional stories in history. Sigh. Anyway, Fox has done a fair job advertising it, but the early reviews are not promising, and I think that in the end, Gulliver’s Travels (which opens Saturday, not Wednesday, for whatever reason) will end up doing only slightly better than Yogi Bear, which fizzled last weekend. At least Bedtime Stories had Adam Sandler and a lot more going for it. It will only run you $15 in Ultimate ($17 in Box Office), and for that, you can expect eight Top 5 points, maybe a PTA or two, a middling Rating and about $67 million. You’re probably better off using the same amount of money for The Green Hornet, which has more potential.

The final wide-release film I’ll be talking about this year is True Grit, the latest dramatic film from The Coen Brothers, Ethan and Joel. This is the duo that have been nominated for screenwriting and directing Oscars for Fargo, O Brother Where Are Thou?, No Country For Old Men, and A Serious Man in the last decade. In all, the Coens have won four Oscars, three for No Country, which walked away with the Best Picture award in 2008. It would probably take a team of this caliber to remake True Grit, which was based on a 1968 novel by Charles Portis and which was famously made into a movie in 1969 for which Hollywood legend John Wayne took home his only Academy Award (and which spawned a “sequel” of sorts, entitled Rooster Cogburn in 1975).

Stepping into The Duke’s shoes is Jeff Bridges, who is on a high right now after winning Best Actor one year ago for Crazy Heart as well as for the recent success of Tron: Legacy. And when he is supported by other A-list actors such as Matt Damon and Josh Brolin, it’s a sure bet that the Academy will be watching this one very closely.

The plot: an aging, alcoholic U.S. Marshall named Rooster Cogburn (Bridges) is approached by a 14-year-old girl named Mattie Ross (played by newcomer Hailee Steinfeld), who is on a quest to track down a drifter named Tom Chaney (Brolin) and avenge her father’s death at his hands. They are soon joined by a Texas Ranger named La Boeuf (Damon), who also is on Chaney’s trail.

Ethan Coen has said in interviews that their version of True Grit will be a more faithful adaptation of Portis’ book than John Wayne’s version was, and that the story will be told entirely from Mattie’s perspective. I’m not sure if it will be as stark a tale as Fargo or No Country was, but for whatever it’s worth, the critics are falling over each other to praise this movie. A whopping 49 of 51 critics on RT have given it a thumbs-up, and I am confident that it will return a User Rating on or above 8.0 without breaking a sweat.

It’s interesting to note that no Coen Brothers movie has ever had a release platform over 3,000 theaters, but True Grit does. It took No Country several months and a post-Oscar run to reach $74 million, but I think that True Grit will take its place as the Coens’ highest-grossing film to date. I predict an OW of $17 million ($25 million over the five-day weekend), on its way to $83 million, nine Top 5 points, and maybe a PTA point if it’s lucky. If it does well at awards time, it could do even more, but for now, I think it’s a terrific pick for only $10 ($9 in Box Office).

And now a bit about the Christmas weekend’s three limited release films.

Somewhere ($7 Ult) – Director Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation) is behind the camera for this drama, which stars Stephen Dorff as Johnny Marco, a Hollywood bad-boy actor living a live of excess and residing at a swanky Beverly Hills hotel. One day, he is paid a surprise visit by his 11-year-old daughter Cleo (Elle Fanning), and Johnny is forced to reconcile his career path with being a father.

Somewhere made its debut at the Venice Film Festival earlier this year, taking home the Golden Lion award (the festival’s highest honor) with a unanimous vote, including jury president Quentin Tarantino. Most stateside critics seem to agree, as 42/53 have also given Somewhere their blessing. It will be debuting on only seven screens on Wednesday, and now that The King’s Speech is expanding, the PTA crown is up for grabs again, I truly believe that Somewhere will easily grab it. It will have some competition from next week’s three limited releases, but it could easily hang on for double digits in that category. It’s current Rating (7.0 with over 1,500 votes) will also be of benefit.

Country Strong ($6 Ult) – Perhaps following in the footsteps of last year’s country music success story, Crazy Heart, comes this film from Shana Feste (The Greatest). It tells the story of rising singer Beau Hutton (Garrett Hedlund, who, ironically, is in Tron: Legacy with Crazy Heart star Jeff Bridges), who teams up with country legend Kelly Canter (Gwyneth Paltrow), whose career has fallen on hard times after several stints in rehab. The two embark on a tour together to try to resurrect her career, spearheaded by Kelly’s husband/manager (country superstar Tim McGraw). Along for the ride is another up-and-coming young singer, former beauty queen Chiles Stanton (Leighton Meester).

Country Strong is scheduled to debut on two screens this week before eventually expanding to 1,500-plus screens on January 7th. I have no word on any early reviews, so I can’t really say whether critics like this film or not. It’s current User Rating is not good (5.9), but there are only a few votes cast so far so that could easily change. It could be worth a few PTA, but probably not enough to make it worth spending $6 on it. It also costs $6 in Box Office, but I don’t think it’s wide release will be enough to make it worth it there either.

The Illusionist ($4 Ult) – No, this is not a re-release or a remake of the excellent 2006 film directed by Neil Burger and starring Edward Norton, but rather, it is an animated French film (L’Illusionniste) that will be showing on three screens this weekend. It is directed by Sylvain Chomet (who won incredible acclaim and an Oscar nom for The Triplets of Belleville), and its animation style is very much in the same vein as that film.

Based on an unproduced script by legendary French filmmaker Jacques Tati, The Illusionist is basically an animated version of Tati (voiced by Jean-Claude Donda), an elderly amateur French magician who finds himself in an isolated community in Scotland, and becoming involved with a young woman who becomes convinced that he is a real magician.

Critical reception for The Illusionist has been stellar thus far, which is not surprising when you combine the efforts of one of France’s most famous directors with one of its most current directorial stars. 24 of 26 critics have had naught but praise for this film, and if any movie can give Somewhere a run for its PTA money, it will be this one. Plus, it’s only $4, so you’ll have an easier time fitting it into your roster, and with a solid Rating of 7.8 (with well over 1,000 votes), it can do little but help you. Just note: it will be released on Saturday, so it will only have two days to accumulate PTA instead of three.


My predictions for the weekend of December 24-26, 2010:

1. Little Fockers - $43 million ($64 million 5-day)
2. Tron: Legacy - $26 million
3. True Grit - $17 million ($25 million 5-day)
4. Gulliver’s Travels - $16 million (2-day)
5. Yogi Bear - $8 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we close out 2010 with three limited-release films that will be released over New Year’s weekend: Biutiful, a Spanish-language drama starring Oscar winner Javier Bardem; Another Year, an English drama from director Mike Leigh; and Blue Valentine, a romantic drama starring Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams. I’ll also preview my Top Ten Most Anticipated Movies of the first four months of 2011.

Later!

[Buscemi]

I'm going to say that Tron: Legacy drops over 50%. Word-of-mouth hasn't been very good.

And Little Fockers should at least get to $200 million. The legs on Meet the Fockers were insane (I remember it playing into March in first-run).

Also, a good sign that Country Strong isn't very good: despite being an Oscar bait film, Sony is withholding the film from critics. Even things like Yogi Bear got screened to critics before release.

[numbersix]

Solid figures this week, Shryke, and I'm largely in agreement.

With the limited releases, I noticed Somewhere hasn't performed ver well at all, which opens up the PTA race. Could be Fockers, could be the well reviewed The Illusionist. Country Strong seems to be underwhelming, so it's hard to say. I'm going to say The Illusionist surprises with 5 PTA points, then Fockers, Somewhere, True Grit, and then King's Speech.

[Buscemi]

Little Fockers reportedly opened to under $6 million yesterday. Major ouch considering how the last one had a $12 million opening day and this was expected by some to make up for Tron underwhelming.

However, audience reception is positive (77% from users on Rotten Tomatoes despite having only 8% from critics) so it could turn around.

My reasoning for the underwhelming numbers: Universal did not make clear that it was a sequel by leaving off Meet The in the title (strangely enough, the international title is Meet the Parents: Little Fockers). The working title was Meet the Little Fockers.

[Geezer]

You never cease to amaze me....

[Buscemi]

But would you have known it was a sequel without being explained first? The ads on TV don't make it clear that it's a sequel. They just show you some clips, the actors (leaving off several names while including Owen Wilson, who didn't have much of a role in the first two) and the title.

It's not that people didn't want to see it (just look at the numbers on the first two, people eat up this type of movie). It's just that the studio isn't distinguishing it apart from other comedies.

As for the Tron numbers, it's been generally agreed by most film sites and publications to be an underperformer. Early tracking had it in $45-55 million range (some people had it at $90-100 million). Also, the Saturday drop was bigger than most films due to fanboy effect. Also, Disney spent over $200 million on it (including merchandise and a year and a half of marketing), which means probably won't break profit on it.

Edit: Numbers on Little Fockers have improved to $7.5 million. Meanwhile, True Grit opened to $5 million.

[Geezer]

YES I WOULD HAVE KNOWN!!!! What kind of moron can't determine from the word "FOCKERS" being in the title, and having Ben Stiller acting like the same character, and DeNiro acting as the same character, that it would be part of the same series???

[Shrykespeare]

I read the review on WorstPreviews last night of Little Fockers. He usually gives movies bad ratings, but this was off the charts. He actually gave it a 0/10, calling it bad on the level of Disaster Movie.

He did, however, give True Grit an 8/10, which is exceptionally high for him.

And I have to agree with Geez. Having the word "Focker" in the title should make the premise self-evident to anyone who's seen either of the first two. I think it just had a poor opening day because it's a poor movie. It looked poor from the first trailer and every trailer after that. That's why I think it'll make on or about the same dollar amount as the first film, and perhaps even less than that.

[Buscemi]

You obviously don't remember the box office on Transformers 2, Wild Hogs and Clash of the Titans. People feed off of crappy movies and this is no exception (hell, Clash of the Titans is getting a sequel!).

[Shrykespeare]

I remember them just fine. Sometimes crappy movies do well. But Little Fockers, unlike the films you cited, are not the third chapter of a tired franchise. I certainly didn't think Clash was going to suck as bad as it did BEFORE I saw it. If they expect Clash 2 to do anywhere near the original they'd better not repeat the 3D fiasco that the first one did. Don't even think I'll be seeing the second one regardless, and I bet I'm not alone. Transformers 2 was predisposed to succeed, much like the Star Wars prequels. Wild Hogs? Still can't explain that film's success. Thank God there was no sequel to that one.

[Buscemi]

I wouldn't exactly call a $278 million domestic gross on a sequel tired. Now if it had been only two-thirds the number of the first, that would be tired.

[Shrykespeare]

Wednesday Estimates:

Little Fockers, $7.2M
Tron Legacy, $5.6M
True Grit, $5.5M
Yogi Bear, $2.9M
Narnia 3, $2.5M
Tangled, $2.2M
Black Swan, $1.7M (now in 1456 theaters)
The Fighter, $1.4M
The Tourist, $1M
Harry Potter, $900K

[Shrykespeare]

Thursday Estimates:

Little Fockers, $7.1M ($14.3M 2-day)
Tron Legacy, $6.1M ($11.7M)
True Grit, $5.7M ($11.2M)
Yogi Bear, $3.3M ($6.6M)
Narnia 3, $2.5M ($5.5M)
Tangled, $2.2M ($4.9M)
Black Swan, $1.7M ($3.5M)
The Fighter, $1.4M ($3.0M)
The Tourist, N/A
Harry Potter, $1.1M ($2.0)

Also, Country Strong debuted on 2 screens Wednesday for a PTA of $3,698. That puts it just ahead of The King's Speech (not that Wed/Thu numbers count toward that anyway). No word yet on Somewhere.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday estimates:

Little Fockers, $5.1M
True Grit, $4.8M
Tron Legacy, $4.0M
Narnia 3, $2.2M
Yogi Bear, $2.1M
Tangled, $1.7M
The FIghter, $1.3M
Black Swan, $1.1M
The Tourist, $875K
Harry Potter, $705K

[Shrykespeare]

1. Little Fockers - $43 million ($64 million 5-day)
2. Tron: Legacy - $26 million
3. True Grit - $17 million ($25 million 5-day)
4. Gulliver’s Travels - $16 million (2-day)
5. Yogi Bear - $8 million


Sunday Weekend estimates:

Top 5:
5 points - Little Fockers - $34 million ($48.3M 5-day)
4 points - True Grit - $25.6 million ($36.8M 5-day)
3 points - Tron Legacy - $20.1 million
2 points - Narnia: Dawn Treader - $63.9 million
1 point - Yogi Bear - $8.8M
Gulliver's Travels - $7.2 million (2-day)

So moving Gulliver from Wednesday to Saturday just killed it completely. And Fockers will not be getting near $200M.


PTA:
5 points - Somewhere, $20,286
4 points - The Illusionist, $16,867
3 points - Little Fockers, $9,620
2 points - Country Strong, $8,650
1 point - True Grit, $8,402


User Ratings:
Little Fockers - 5.3
Gulliver's Travels - 5.1
True Grit - 8.5
Somewhere - 6.8
Country Strong - 5.5
The Illusionist - 7.8