SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/17

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

One of the quirks of predicting box office potential is that sometimes you are going to be right, and sometimes you are going to be wrong. And sometimes you are going to not only miss the mark, but the entire continent that the mark is on. I honestly thought the third Narnia film was going to shine brightly this winter, but it ended up having an OW output of less than half what I thought it was going to be, pulling in a paltry $24 million and guaranteeing that it probably won’t even make $100 million. I should have looked at the past history: the last film to debut in theaters between December 1st and December 13th to make over $100 million was 2003’s The Last Samurai. Voyage of the Dawn Treader proved to have as much potential as The Golden Compass (another film I had high hopes for). Oh well, the nice thing about this “job” is that there’s always something new to talk about.

There are a great many Fantaversians who weren’t even alive in 1982. I, however, was thirteen years old and just getting used to these things called “computers”. My house’s first computer was a crappy B/W TRS-80 from Radio Shack. You know a computer is bad when a Commodore-64 is a huge step UP. About this time, a film was released by Disney that had computers as its central theme. It was called Tron, and it featured a singularly unique premise. What is the electronic world really like? A much-much-younger Jeff Bridges starred as Kevin Flynn, a software-engineering whiz who has been forced to earn his living as a video arcade owner after having most of his ideas stolen by a co-worker and then getting shit-canned. In an attempt to prove the plagiarism, Kevin breaks into his old office, but a supercomputer called the MCP thwarts Kevin’s efforts by using a digitizing laser on him, sending him into the computer’s mainframe where programs and subroutines are given human form.

Don’t worry, Flynn was able to successfully defeat the MCP and make it back out to the real world. Happy ending. Made for only $17 million, it grossed a mere $33 million at the box office and became a classic for computer geeks. Computers have taken about thirty-seven quantum leaps since then, and twenty-eight years later, Disney has finally slapped together a sequel, entitled Tron: Legacy, and they didn’t spare the cash, as this long-time-coming sequel has incurred a budget of $200 million.

Joseph Kosinski, making his directorial debut, is behind the camera for this CGI extravaganza (and he will be remaking the 1979 sci-fi classic The Black Hole next year). Tron Legacy picks up the story in the present day: Kevin Flynn (reprised by the very popular and very busy Jeff Bridges, who will also be starring in the remake of True Grit next week) apparently disappeared off the face of the earth not long after the events of the first film, leaving a young son behind. Twenty years later, Sam Flynn (Garrett Hedlund) is approached by one of his father’s old business associates (Bruce Boxleitner, also from the first film), who mysteriously sends him to Kevin’s old arcade. Once there, well, you can guess what happens: he is digitized and sent into the computer world (called “The Grid”), where he is reunited with his long-lost daddy.

Of course, the defeat of MCP didn’t spell the end of trouble for The Grid. In its place sprang CLU2, an updated version of Flynn’s hacking program (and whose manifestation looks like Bridges from 1982), and Sam must find a way to save himself and his father. Helping them is a “digital warrior” named Quorra (House, M.D.’s Olivia Wilde) who looks damn sexy in skin-tight spandex.

About 2/3 of the reviews for Tron Legacy have been positive, but one opinion seems to be universal: the script is very weak, and the dialogue leaves much to be desired. However, the visuals, as one might expect, are breathtaking, and the 3D aspect of the film are completely off the charts. My biggest worry is that Legacy’s target demographic - youngsters who love CGI films and video games – may find the film confusing if they haven’t seen the original, so I hope that the script at least explains or sums up prior events so that Legacy can hold up on its own. Twenty-eight years is a long damn time, after all.

Tron Legacy will run you $24 in the December Ultimate Leagues and $26 in Box Office. After last week’s predictatory debacle, I’ll go a bit lower for Tron Legacy and estimate an OW of $41 million. With Christmas fast approaching, box office numbers tend to pick up right about now, and I would imagine that the well-advertised Tron Legacy and its 3D counterparts will do quite well. Considering that after next week, the number of wide-release films will be dropping off almost completely, it’s very possible that Tron Legacy will be in the Top 5 for at least four weeks, pulling in about twelve Top 5 points, three PTA and a decent Rating. I will predict a total run of $135 million for this film, which makes it a very worthwhile choice for the Dec-Feb leagues.

I was surprised to learn that Yogi Bear, one of the most famous cartoon characters in history, was only on TV for two years, from 1960-61. Voiced by Daws Butler, the “smarter than the average bear” (named hysterically in honor of Hall of Fame Yankees catcher Yogi Berra) created by Hanna-Barberra resided in the fictitious Jellystone Park, stealing picnic baskets from unsuspecting tourists, while evading the less-than-enthused Ranger Smith. And, like most classic cartoon characters, he had a sidekick, the diminutive Boo Boo Bear.

It is probably because of the success of the Scooby-Doo and Alvin and the Chipmunk movies that Yogi Bear was made in live-action CGI. The plot: because of waning tourism, a local government official decides to shut Jellystone Park down. This, of course, would mean eviction from the only home they’d ever known, so Yogi (voiced by Dan Aykroyd) and Boo Boo (voiced by… Justin Timberlake?) must team up with their nemesis Ranger Smith (Tom Cavanagh) to save the place from closure. Anna Faris, T.J. Miller and Nathan Corddry (yes, Rob’s brother) co-star.

I don’t imagine Yogi Bear will come anywhere near Alvin in terms of total output. Those films’ musical overtones were a perfect match for the American Idol generation. Yogi Bear, on the other hand, is pure childish silliness, and it’s the very last pure kids’ movie of the year, so it will probably do just fine. It’s being given a terrific release platform (upwards of 3,500 theaters, including some 3D), so I predict an OW of $37 million, on its way to nine Top 5 points, two PTA and $110 million. I would think twice about taking this in Ultimate ($18), because it’s very possible that the User Rating will be terrible. In Box Office ($21), however, you should do well.

Academy Award-winning director James L. Brooks has teamed up with Hollywood icon Jack Nicholson on two occasions, and both netted Oscar gold. However, Nicholson is but a supporting actor in their third collaboration, entitled How Do You Know. This romantic comedy, the last of the year, stars Reese Witherspoon as Lisa Jorgenson, a former professional softball player who is caught in a love triangle with her neighbor George (Paul Rudd), a corporate executive going through a rough patch, and current boyfriend Manny (Owen Wilson), a professional baseball player who Lisa doesn’t think is the right match for her. Nicholson co-stars as Charles, George’s father.

Most romantic comedies follow similar patterns and tend to be as predictable as they come. A few of them break away from the pack, however, and I believe How Do You Know can be one of those, based solely on its exceptional cast and its veteran director. It’s the last rom-com for over a month, and I think that the only title that could potentially take its audience away is next week’s Little Fockers, the third chapter in the Meet the… films, whose runaway success is a very daunting one.

I will predict How Do You Know, which is opening in 2,500 theaters this Friday, will score $17 million on its OW (just ahead of The Fighter, which goes wide this week), on its way to six Top 5 points, a respectable Rating in the 7’s, and $50 million. For $12 (both leagues), it’s a bit of a risk, but probably less so than most of January’s films.

This is the season for PTA giants. The Fighter dominated this past weekend (but will be expanding to over 2,000 locations this week), and Black Swan and The King’s Speech continue to hold strong. Two late additions to the roster also have very definite PTA potential, and they are:

Rabbit Hole ($5 Ult, $3 BO) – Director John Cameron Mitchell (Shortbus, Hedwig and the Angry Inch) is behind the camera for this film about grief and loss. It stars Nicole Kidman and Aaron Eckhart as Becca and Howie Corbett, who are trying to cope with the death of their only child eight months after he perishes in a car accident. People grieve in different ways, of course: Becca becomes closer with the teenage driver who accidentally killed her son, while Howie turns to smoking pot with a friend from a bereavement support group. Dianne Weist, Sandra Oh and Giancarlo Esposito co-star.

This is the kind of tearjerker that the Academy and critics love. Case in point: an 8.0/671 Rating on IMDb and an 86% Fresh score (on 18/21 reviews) on RT. Rabbit Hole will be debuting on five screens this weekend, which makes it a very definite PTA contender, though probably only for one week. It is scheduled for “limited expansion” next week, as well as further expansion in January if Lionsgate deems it worthy. For $5, I think this is definitely a film worth taking.

Casino Jack ($5 Ult, $2 BO) – Not quite as high up the potential PTA ladder is this film from director George Hickenlooper (Factory Girl, Dogtown) who, sadly, passed away six weeks ago. It is a biopic of sorts, relating the career of D.C. lobbyist Jack Abramoff (played by Kevin Spacey), whose blatant influence-peddling from special interest groups led to a massive corruption scandal, which resulted in Abramoff and a host of others being convicted of fraud, tax evasion and conspiracy.

The scores for Casino Jack aren’t stellar (6.8/1000+ votes, 7/12 positive), but its minimal platform does warrant attention. It is debuting in select theaters in NY and LA only, which means PTA is quite possible. But for the same price tag as Rabbit Hole, I can’t imagine why you’d pick this film over that one.


My predictions for the weekend of December 17-19, 2010:

1. Tron: Legacy - $41 million
2. Yogi Bear - $37 million
3. How Do You Know - $17 million
4. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader - $14 million
5. The Fighter - $13 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, I will tackle six films debuting in theaters on or about the Christmas holiday. They are: Little Fockers, the latest throwdown between Ben Stiller and Robert DeNiro; Gulliver’s Travels, a modern-day take on the classic novel starring Jack Black; True Grit, the Coen Brothers’ remake of the classic John Wayne western; and limited-release features Somewhere, Country Strong and The Illusionist.

Later!





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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/17

Post by Buscemi »

My predictions:

1. Tron: Legacy $35 million (it's one of those Watchmen type of films)
2. Yogi Bear $28 million (but legs will be strong)
3. The Fighter $13 million
4. How Do You Know $11 million (more Spanglish than As Good As It Gets here)
5. Narnia $10 million (it will drop like The Day The Earth Stood Still did)
6. The Tourist $8 million (word of mouth has been bad)
-- Black Swan $5 million (probably won't get much interest in wide release outside of college students who will come for the sex scene)
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/17

Post by numbersix »

I think Boosch's figures are more accurate, as they are in line with current tracking, although I don't think Narnia will drop that hard and should make 12-14 mil.

As for Rabbit Hole, it should nab 4-5 PTA points, as Black Swan and The Fighter are going wide, leaving only The King's Speech as competition. Casino Jack could nab one or two if it's lucky.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/17

Post by Buscemi »

Update on Tron Legacy: it is down to 63% (27/43) after four consecutive negative reviews. With top critics, it is at 33% (1/3). Expect it to be at a rotten rating by Friday.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Spanglish? A drama with Adam Sandler NOT being funny and the black hole of charisma known as Tea Leoni versus Witherspoon, Wilson, Rudd and Nicholson? Seriously?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/17

Post by Buscemi »

Both films have the same director, the same release date (though six years apart, both have identical December 17th dates), the same studio and faced a Meet The Parents sequel five days later. Also, James L. Brooks's movies always look the same and often disappoint.

Also, you could easily replace Leoni with Paul Rudd (who not only always plays the same character but always seems to copy Eric McCormick's "straight gay" style from Will and Grace). And Wilson is the film's Sandler.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/17

Post by transformers2 »

I'm sorry, Boosh sometimes you just blow my fucking mind with your comparisons. Paul Rudd tries to copy the "straight gay style" from Will and Grace? That doesn't even make any sense. You do realize the character of Will was gay and Rudd has never played a gay character right?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/17

Post by Buscemi »

But McCormick was a straight man playing a gay guy and the type of gay he played was the straight gay type (for contrast, Sean Hayes played the more familiar camp gay type). Paul Rudd always acts somewhat feminine in his roles (which is weird for the type of films he makes) and it comes off being very similar to Eric McCormick's approach to Will on Will and Grace. Sometimes, I wonder why Rudd doesn't play a gay character because his (bizarrely straight) characters always come off as closeted. That is what I meant.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/17

Post by silversurfer19 »

Buscemi wrote:But McCormick was a straight man playing a gay guy and the type of gay he played was the straight gay type
Woah, try saying that in one go!

Can't say i agree though Boussh. Rudd plays the every man. He has buddy friendships with guys in most of his movies, but he always appears straight to me in his roles. It's like Simon Pegg and Nick Frost, the every men who are best buddys, but you'd never assume their friendship bordered on homosexual. he may not be the jock spitting and itching his jogging shorts, but that doesn't make him appear gay. McCormick was very openly gay in Will and Grace, maybe not as much as they other characters, but he was certainly gay to the viewer. I don't think most viewers would say that same of Rudd.

Anyway, I see How Do You Know? performing decent, maybe not quite to the extent It's Complicated did last year, but I see a comfortable $60m coming in with good holds.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/17

Post by Buscemi »

The character was openly gay but he played the "straight gay" type. This means he was gay but didn't show the obvious stereotypes. Another example of straight gay is actor John Barrowman and his character on Torchwood. The actor is gay and the character is bisexual but it's not a stereotypical camp gay role.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/17

Post by silversurfer19 »

I know what you're saying, but anyone watching Will and Grace for the first time would know Will was gay, he may have been the 'straight type' but it was obvious he was gay. Rudd does not play that character. Anyway, having bankable stars like Rudd, Wilson, Witherspoon and Nicholson should ensure it does ok.

look at their most recent resume's from the last couple of years and you'll see it's a bankable movie:

Rudd - $73m, $71m, $67m, $63m
Wilson - $177m, $143m
Witherspoon - $198m, $120m, $119m
Nicholson - $93m, $132m

They look like good numbers for bringing in a decent total, even if you take away the one or two $30m movies they have collectively done over that time.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/17

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Well, Busc, if anything, you do keep this site interesting. And I always thought Paul Rudd in Clueless seemed kind of....soft.

But anyway, I'm going out on a ledge and saying that Yogi Bear will outgross Tron Legacy this weekend. (!)

Tron's stock is falling fast as more and more reviews bash it, and it had limited appeal in the first place. And if the kids have seen Tangled already, the families will flock to Yogi Bear. And the TV spots are not doing a great job of describing exactly what the hell Tron is even about, it looks like it's just flashy neon lights and speedy motorcycles - it's like Speed Racer, but replace all the multi-colors with just BLUE.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/17

Post by Buscemi »

I'm getting word that Rabbit Hole is bombing at matinees in Los Angeles. It's looking like PTA will be under $5,000 on Friday.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates:

Tron Legacy, $18M
Yogi Bear, $4.6M (expect this to improve on Sat/Sun)
The Fighter, $3.9M
Narnia, $3.5M
How Do You Know, $2.5M
The Tourist, $2.5M
Black Swan, $2.5M (959 theaters)
Tangled, $2.2M
Harry Potter, $1.3M
Unstoppable, $550K
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/17

Post by Buscemi »

It seems like here today, everyone was seeing Voyage of the Dawn Treader. The Fighter had maybe about 20 people inside at the showing I went to.
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