SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/10

[transformers2]

I have actually seen a ton of ad's for The Tourist, mostly on ESPN.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

As I mentioned, The Tourist isn't being screened to critics. Reportedly the final cut was still being worked on by the time by the time scheduled press screenings were to happen and therefore, all critics screenings have been canceled (my best guess is that the director probably wants his film to be different than the other spy movies, also he has the most to lose since his last film was an Oscar winner). The same with the advertising since there is not enough footage to work with since there is no final cut to be seen. The earliest that anyone will see the film is Thursday night.

Well technically, it'll be tonight, but not by critics but by projectionists.

[Buscemi]

Early estimates: Narnia is projected to have a Friday under $10 million. The weekend will probably be at $30 million.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Nikki has Narnia reaching $28M for the weekend, and The Tourist only getting $18M.

Maybe Sony shouldn't have poured all of it's marketing budget on How Do You Know (which I'm seeing EVERYWHERE).

[Buscemi]

How Do You Know looks like another Spanglish to me (James L. Brooks always seems to make the same movie due to the themes always being the same). I'd be surprised if it grossed over $60 million.

Also, I'd read the film isn't very good (and it will need to gross $200 million to break even).

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Narnia, $8.2M (I'm betting, given that this is very much a film for younger audiences, that it will pick up on Sat/Sun)
Tourist, $6.1M
Tangled, $3.4M (over $100M as of Thursday)
Harry Potter, $2.4M (now officially at $250M overall)
Unstoppable, $1.2M (one whole month in the Top 5!)

The Fighter, $100K in 4 locations ($25K PTA)
Black Swan, $987K in 90 locations (over $10K PTA)
The King's Speech, $156K in 19 locations (over $8K PTA)
The Tempest, $14,200 in 4 locations ($2,840 PTA, just barely higher than Narnia and Tourist)

It looks like 127 Hours's days in the Top 5 PTA are done. The Fighter looks like the easy PTA champ, but it's going to have a hard time cracking the Top 5 in Box Office next week with only 2,200 locations.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

HA!

Weekend estimates have Narnia at $24M!! Looks like Fox made a bad pick up, and the franchise is pretty much dead now. Especially since the main kids aren't even in the next books, apparently.

[Shrykespeare]

Saw Narnina last night. They did kind of set up the next story by mentioning the name of the girl (Jill Pole) who is the main character in the fourth book (The Silver Chair). We'll see if anything comes of it. Wow, I can't believe it did so poorly.

Sunday Estimates:


Top 5:
5 points - Narnia: Dawn Treader, $24.5M
4 points - The Tourist, $17M
3 points - Tangled, $14.5M (13 points total)
2 points - Harry Potter, $8.5M (16 points total)
1 point - Unstoppable, $3.7M (11 points total)

PTA:
5 points - The Fighter, $80,000
4 points - Black Swan, $37,000 (9 points total)
3 points - The King's Speech, $31,000 (12 points total)
2 points - The Tempest, $9,000
1 point - Narnia: Dawn Treader, $6,900

For the December leagues, remove King's Speech, Move Tempest and Narnia up one and insert Phillip Morris in for one point. For now. No word yet on Company Men, Everything Is Going Fine, and Garden of Eden.


User Ratings:

Narnia: Dawn Treader - 6.7
The Tourist - 6.1
The Fighter - 8.0
The Tempest - 6.8
The Company Men - 6.7
And Everything Is Going Fine - 8.3
Hemingway's Garden of Eden - 4.9

[numbersix]

I think Company Men was moved to 2011

[Buscemi]

It had a one-week Oscar run this week. The general release is in 2011.

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Actuals:

Top 5
5 points - Narnia, $24M
4 points - The Tourist, $16.4M
3 points - Tangeld, $14.3M
2 points - Harry Potter, $8.5M
1 point - Unstoppable, $3.7M

Black Swan came in 6th with $3.3M in 90 locations. Wow.

PTA (Oct/Nov leagues)
5 points - The Fighter
4 points - Black Swan
3 points - The King's Speech
2 points - The Tempest
1 point - And Everything is Going Fine

PTA (Dec leagues)
5 points - The Fighter
4 points - Black Swan
3 points - The Tempest
2 points - And Everything is Going Fine
1 point - Narnia

Frankie and Alice made $7,768 in one theater, which... hmm. Thought it wasn't coming out until February...

No numbers came through on The Company Men. Guess its one-week Oscar run was not reported. And Garden of Eden made $886 per theater.

[Buscemi]

Frankie and Alice was a one-week Oscar run too (that was originally scheduled for December 17th).