SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/10

[Shrykespeare]

Some new developments: quite a few films from December and January have just been added to the list of movies and are now available to be chosen for the games. This was done because several of them have Oscar implications, including Rabbit Hole, Casino Jack and Biutiful. Plus, it’s always good to have extra options, even in the eleventh hour. My apologies for not including All Good Things in last week’s column, but I was unaware at the time that I wrote it that its release date had been changed from 12/17 to 12/3. My total bad.

Instead of five new movies to talk about today, there are seven, including two others that were just added this past weekend. Both of the two wide-release films are likely to debut to impressive numbers, though for different reasons. With Disney’s latest blockbuster Tangled and the penultimate Harry Potter film taking sharp nosedives this past weekend, that #1 spot is up for grabs again. And with seven potential blockbusters coming in the next three weeks, these films are critical, especially in the December-February leagues, where front-loading is likely to be your best option.

Five years ago, the first chapter of the much-beloved series of books by author C.S. Lewis, entitled The Chronicles of Narnia, was adapted for the big screen. The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe made a tremendous splash, earning nearly $300 million and much critical acclaim despite some minimal controversy about its heavy Christian overtones. However, the second chapter, Prince Caspian, fared far less well in summer of 2008, earning only $141 million and generally seen as a disappointment. I remember saying at the time that given that its main theme was a mere power struggle, it wasn’t the easiest story to successfully adapt, and I was right. I also remember saying that if the third story, whose theme was adventure and exploration, was adapted, it would fare much much better.

Of course, it almost didn’t happen at all: Disney dropped production of The Voyage of the Dawn Treader after Caspian underwhelmed, and it was only after 20th Century Fox picked it up that the story was allowed to continue. One $140 million budget and a change of directors later, it’s finally here in full Digital 3D glory. Andrew Adamson’s directorial reins have been handed to veteran Hollywood helmer Michael Apted, who was behind the camera for films such as Coal Miner’s Daughter, Gorky Park, Gorillas in the Mist, Blink and Thunderheart.

The events of Dawn Treader take up the story one year after Caspian ended; the younger two of the four Pevensie children, Lucy (Georgie Henley, now 15) and Edmund (Skandar Keynes, now 19) are whisked away from their life in post-WWII England back to Narnia, along with their bratty cousin Eustace (Will Poulter). There, they are reunited with King Caspian (Ben Barnes), aboard a mighty ship, the Dawn Treader. Caspian is on a quest to rescue seven lost Narnian lords in order to combat an evil that resides on a dark island. Along the way, they will encounter danger in many strange, exotic forms, and each character will be tested. Simon Pegg takes over for Eddie Izzard as the voice of stalwart mouse Reepicheep, and Liam Neeson returns as the voice of Aslan the omnipotent lion.

Of course, from the looks of the trailer, the film’s creators also took some liberties with the story so they could include cameos from older siblings Peter (William Moseley) and Susan (Anna Popplewell) as well as the evil White Queen (Tilda Swinton). This is the last story in the series to include the Pevensies, which makes me believe that unless Dawn Treader makes an incredible splash, an adaptation of the next book, The Silver Chair, will not happen. It will be debuting in 3,500 locations, including many 3D screens, so expect big numbers.

The three most expensive films in the December-February season are this, next week’s Tron Legacy, and the following week’s Little Fockers. All three are sequels, and though none are guaranteed hits, I think Dawn Treader will do very well. I envision an opening weekend of $60 million, on its way to twelve Top 5 points, three PTA, a User Rating around 7.0 and $190 million. For $24 in Ultimate ($25 in December), I think that this is a worthy pick. Between this and Little Fockers, I think you are well-covered this season in three of the four categories.

Bowing in 2,600 theaters this Friday is The Tourist, the latest release from Columbia Pictures. German-born Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck (The Lives of Others) had the enviable task of directing two of the most famous actors on the planet in this romantic espionage thriller, who just happen to be Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie, who are teaming up for the first time.

The story: Frank Taylor (Depp) is vacationing in Italy after a bad breakup. He is soon approached by gorgeous femme fatale Elise Ward (Jolie), who is a spy being tailed by numerous agencies and criminals. Her task is to make her pursuers believe that Frank is her ex-lover, a super-thief who ripped off a gangster (Stephen Berkoff) and is being hunted by an Interpol agent (Paul Bettany). Before long, Frank is getting the James Bond treatment, being whisked around exotic Venice while bullets are flying. Timothy Dalton (a former Bond, ironically) and Rufus Sewell also co-star.

I’m having a hard time looking at The Tourist as anything but a reverse-gender Knight & Day. And though Depp and Jolie have a much healthier following than Cruise and Diaz, there’s just something about this film that strikes me as being a tad bit bland. Plus, the last time Depp played a “normal” role was in the underwhelming Public Enemies, and Jolie’s last espionage outing, Salt, always failed to live up to expectations. Still, there are worse horses to back than these two.

The Tourist will run you $16 in the Ultimate leagues ($18 in Box Office). For that, I expect an OW of $24 million, a decent Rating in the 7’s and $61 million. But there’s a lot going on between now and New Year’s, so I expect The Tourist to take a back seat fairly quickly. Six Top 5 points and maybe one or two PTA is not enough to spend its asking price, and ultimately, I don’t think name recognition will be enough to carry it through in Box Office either.

The first of this week’s Oscar-bait films is The Fighter, a biopic about “Irish” Mickey Ward, a Massachusetts boxer who, after a promising but unsuccessful pro career that lasted from 1985 to 1991, decided to quit the sport because of injuries and family strife. However, in 1997, Ward was given one last shot at glory, and, much like Rocky, certainly made the most of it.

Of course, you can’t have a good sports flick unless there’s a compelling drama beneath it, and the family turmoil is a large part of The Fighter, mostly between Mickey (Mark Wahlberg) and his brother Dickie (Christian Bale), who is Mickey’s biggest supporter but is also a drug addict who has had more than a few run-ins with the law. Oscar-nominated actresses Amy Adams and Melissa Leo also lend their talents as Mickey’s girlfriend and mother, respectively.

The Fighter debuts this Friday on four screens, which makes it a definite “contenda” for the PTA crown this week. It is scheduled for “wide expansion” next week, but I’d be surprised if that translated to more than 1,800 screens. In Ultimate it will run you $10, and for that, I think you can expect four PTA and a very good User Rating. However, Top 5 points may not be in the cards, and I would honestly be surprised if The Fighter’s total purse was more than $25 million, which rather makes it unappealing for $8 in Box Office.

Ah, Shakespeare. His plays will be around until the end of time, and they will be adapted and interpreted in a multitude of ways. The literary work that is considered by many to be Sir William’s very last solo effort is The Tempest, a comedy that wasn’t published until 1623, seven years after his death. Set on a remote island, it tells the tale of Prospero, the rightful Duke of Milan, who plots to restore his daughter Miranda to her rightful place by using illusion and manipulation. He conjures up a tempest (storm) to lure his treacherous brother Antonio and his ally, King Alonso of Naples to the island in order to expose Antonio’s villainy, and to facilitate the marriage of Miranda to Alonso’s son, Ferdinand.

Of course, when you give director Julie Taymor (Frida, Across the Universe) permission to adapt Shakespeare, you know you’re going to get something very bizarre indeed. For starters, the character of Prospero has been changed to “Prospera” so it can be played by Helen Mirren. It also stars Felicity Jones (as Miranda), Chris Cooper (as Antonio), David Strathairn (as Alonso) and Reeve Carney (as Ferdinand), as well as notable actors Djimon Hounsou, Alfred Molina, Alan Cumming and, believe it or not, Russell Brand, who seems to be channeling Aldous Snow in Shakespearean tongue.

Honestly, I just don’t know if I can recommend this film. Across the Universe was a PTA bust, and though The Tempest will only be debuting in five theaters, I can’t see it winning. Apart from The Fighter, you’ve also got continuing competition from Black Swan, The King’s Speech and All Good Things, all of which posted five-digit PTA numbers this weekend. Plus, the few critics that have turned in a review to RT have raked it over the coals (only 1/5 positive so far). It’s got a decent Rating for the moment (7.4/170 votes), but that could change. $7 for this film may buy you nothing but tragedy not even worthy of Shakespeare. It won’t go wide enough to make it worth $5 in Box Office either.

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s three other limited-release films:

The Company Men ($8 Ult) – This film, from director John Wells (Gigantic), deals with a subject that hits pretty close to home: corporate downsizing. And while the critics have been split on the story (5/9 positive), all agree that the cast is phenomenal. And why not? There are four Oscar-winning actors in it! Front and center is the character of Bobby Walker (Ben Affleck), who loses his six-figure salary overnight and is forced to take a job installing drywall with his brother-in-law Jack (Kevin Costner). Also involved are ex-employees Phil Woodward (Chris Cooper) and Gene McLary (Tommy Lee Jones). Craig T. Nelson and Maria Bello also co-star.

Any other week, I would probably recommend this film. But because The Company Men was moved to this weekend from a later date, its price tag was not able to be changed. Plus, it’s possible that this film will only be in theaters for one week and then shelved until January, when it may be given a wider release. Too many variables + too much competition = too big a gamble.

And Everything is Going Fine ($3 Ult) – From Oscar-winning director Stephen Soderbergh (Traffic) comes this documentary about writer/actor/playwright Spalding Gray, who you may remember achieved celebrity for his play Swimming to Cambodia, and whose life was tragically cut short by his apparent suicide in 2004. From this trailer, this looks to be very much an homage, a tribute to the man, one of the most influential personalities of the last century, as a great portion of the film seems to be cobble-together footage of interviews and monologues by Gray.

BOM has And Everything showing on only one screen this weekend. And though I’d like to believe that this is the kind of film that can come from nowhere and take the PTA crown, I just don’t see it happening. It may squeak in with one or two PTA points, but only just.

Hemingway’s Garden of Eden ($2 Ult) – This story was not published until long after Ernest Hemingway died, and it’s probably a good thing that he didn’t live long enough to see what John Irvin (Raw Deal, Hamburger Hill) has done to it. The story centers on David Bourne (Jack Huston) and his wife Catherine (Mena Suvari), who are honeymooning in the French Riviera in post-WWI France, when they meet – and both fall in love with – an attractive woman named Marita (Caterina Murino). Both marrieds begin to compete for her affections, to the detriment of all.

Garden of Eden has gotten bad reviews (1/3 positive at RT, and that one was barely positive), it has a terrible Rating (5.3/64 votes), and it’s being shown in 14 theaters, which normally would be a good number, but in this case, the audience will be spread way too thin. Even for $2, you’re not doing anything but taking up space by choosing this film.


My predictions for the weekend of December 10-12, 2010:

1. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader - $60 million
2. The Tourist - $24 million
3. Tangled - $14 million
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 - $10 million
5. Who cares, it’ll be well under $5 million: Burlesque, Unstoppable, LAOD, take your pick.

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the winter heat gets turned up another notch with five more titles, to be released on December 17th: Tron Legacy, a long-time-coming sequel to the 1981 film starring Jeff Bridges; Yogi Bear, a live-action film about the classic cartoon “smarter than the average” bear; How Do You Know, a romantic comedy starring Paul Rudd, Reese Witherspoon and Jack Nicholson; Rabbit Hole, a tragic drama starring Nicole Kidman and Aaron Eckhart; and Casino Jack, starring Kevin Spacey as Jack Abramoff, one of the most powerful lobbyists in the history of Washington D.C.

Later!

[Buscemi]

The Company Men is a one-week run with a general release on January 21st.

Also, Garden of Eden looks like a regional run. I noticed that one of the theatres running it is in Kansas City and they usually get limited release titles later on (they will be getting I Love You, Phillip Morris on December 25th rather than December 10th or 17th at most bigger cities as a result).

As for the openers...

The Chronicles of Narnia $41 million
The Tourist $18 million (the fact that it's being withheld from critics is not good)

[numbersix]

After the lukewarm opening of the previous Narnia film, I don't see this making 60mil. Your The Tourist prediction is spot on, however.

1. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader - $40 million
2. The Tourist - $25 million
3. Tangled - $12 million
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 - $10 million
5. Burlesque - $3 mil

The fighter may get 5 PTa points depending on its theatre counts against Black Swan. However, the reviews aren't as glowing as 127 Hours, Black Swan, or The King's Speech, so as a PTA pick I'm wary.

[undeadmonkey]

I know you wont be talking about Tron until next week, but i was wondering. Is anybody else getting a Watchmen or even Snakes on a Plane vibe from it? It's been hyped up so much, yet i can't really see it going mainstream.

.... then again, i couldnt see avatar going mainstream last year either.

[numbersix]

Ithink there's been a hell of a lot of marketing power put behind Tron Legacy that makes me think it'll do well, but it's hard to say.

[Buscemi]

I still don't think it will hit $200 million. Reviews from the more traditional critics have been mixed and the first movie wasn't very successful. Also, Disney delaying the first film's Blu Ray release to 2011 (the DVD is out-of-print) was not a smart move (some reviews mention that you need to watch the first film to fully understand the sequel's plot). And last, tracking isn't great (only about $30 million for the weekend). Fanboy hype is making the film seem bigger than it really is (like with Watchmen).

Prediction for Tron: Legacy: 35/140

I still see Little Fockers (with a surprisingly low $40 million 5-day tracking, I was expecting $60-70 million) being the big Christmas film.

[Shrykespeare]

It would seem a few more titles have been added to BOM's roster for January, which means I'm going to need pricing on them from as many people as I can get:

1/14 - Plastic Planet (documentary about, you guessed it, plastics)
1/14 - Twelve Thirty (drama with a bunch of no-name actors)
2/4 - Dressed (documentary about Laotian-American fashion designer Nary Marivong)
2/11 - Orgasm Inc. (documenatry about the development of Viagra-for-women)

Wow, Jan. and Feb. just keeps getting more crowded.

[silversurfer19]

Just a question, I know you're trying to make the game much better by including all limited releases which sometimes hit big PTA but are not in the game, but do we need to include all of them? I mean, we have just added a large number of limited movies which have little to no chance of getting any PTA points, and now we are adding more? I know what you're trying to do, and I appreciate it as it makes the game much closer to the reality of the limited release table, but I think we may be over crowding it for no reason. I can't really seen any of those movies picking up a single point, so would never include them on my slates, so do we really need them?

Again, I appreciate what you are doing, but this just feels a little overkill, and a waste of time for both you and the Italians.

[Shrykespeare]

Well, my reasoning is: a lot of the ones that I have you guys price are titles that I glean from Comingsoon.net, titles that I figure have a 50/50 shot at being added to BOM's list and, hence, our own list. It's just that I've found that, time and time again, there are titles that WOULD have earned PTA points had they been added to the game, but just weren't.

Yes, most of these late additions are indeed red herrings that will probably a) not earn any PTA points and b) probably not be chosen by anyone playing the game anyway. But I've noticed that as of this moment, there are only eleven films slated for all of January. That's an average of less than three per week. This is especially significant for the Jan-Mar leagues, because as you know, no December movies can have any effect on PTA in that season. Therefore, the chances that some of those seemingly insignificant titles may actually pick up some wayward PTA points is increased, especially if they come in the first two weeks of the month.

I have also noticed that without these late additions, late-season changes are extremely difficult. You often get down to your last few bucks, and realize that you only have two or three options (possibly less), for the whole season. This will at least expand that.

So, regarding this last-minute miniscule additions, I can go one of several routes:

1) Ignore them completely. Pro: keeps the game tighter. Con: Limits one's options.

2) Get valid pricing schemes for them, then add them if they are indeed added by donnie to the roster. Pro: Makes the process a lot more democratic. Con: A lot of the additions may end up being superfluous.

3) Price them myself, and add them if I think they are worthy additions. Pro: I wouldn't have to bother everyone with late additions. Con: It's a bit autocratic, and it's possible not everyone would notice if a film was added, even if I made announcements on both the boards and the game site.


Bottom line: I would prefer to have anywhere from 4-5 films coming out every week on average. Sometimes there will be fewer, sometimes there will be more, but that's an average that I can live with. There is also an added bonus in that the likelihood of people's slates being totally identical is lessened, especially in Ultimate.

It's certainly not my intention to bog the game down or clutter it up with useless movies, but look at it this way... every fantasy sports league has a vast array of "cheap" choices. Every big store has a "bargain rack". Every fast-food place has a "dollar menu". You get the idea.


If everyone else wants to weigh in on this, I'd appreciate it, as always.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I still don't think it will hit $200 million. Reviews from the more traditional critics have been mixed and the first movie wasn't very successful. Also, Disney delaying the first film's Blu Ray release to 2011 (the DVD is out-of-print) was not a smart move (some reviews mention that you need to watch the first film to fully understand the sequel's plot). And last, tracking isn't great (only about $30 million for the weekend). Fanboy hype is making the film seem bigger than it really is (like with Watchmen).

Prediction for Tron: Legacy: 35/140

I still see Little Fockers (with a surprisingly low $40 million 5-day tracking, I was expecting $60-70 million) being the big Christmas film.

Agree and agree.

I can see Tron Legacy having a big weekend (like 60 or 70) but having bad WOM, because apparently it makes no sense if you haven't seen the original. And the original is hard enough to find - it's not on Netflix or Blu, and I couldn't find the DVD at Best Buy or Target.

And I thought Fockers was always going to dominate Christmas, what family won't go to see it? I think Fockers and Yogi Bear will be the surprises.

[silversurfer19]

Well I can certainly see your point Shryke, and if you're fine with it, then feel free to go ahead. I would urge to maybe just limit the picks to movies which really do have a possibility of gaining PTA points, and with the new season scheme that may well mean four or five movies per weekend. Having the option of movies like Rabbit Hole, Casino Jack and Biutiful will certainly improve the variety of slates, but having movies with no name actors or subjects no-one has an interest in just seems to give everyone extra work. i don't mind adding a pricing scheme for them, even if every one of them will be $1, but its just an extra movie the guys have to tabulate into the scoring each week (even if they don't get any points they still have IMDB scores which need to be scored).

So basically what I'm saying is do whatever you feel necessary to make the game as competitive as possible, but maybe harness in some of the options if they are truly not needed.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

And is it just me or does The Tourist have ZERO advertising? I've seen one commercial and it made the movie look like Killers or Knight & Day, which doesn't bode well for it.

Shryke, you think Salt failed to live up to expectations? I thought it was a surprising blockbuster, especially coming the week after Inception.

[silversurfer19]

Shryke, you think Salt failed to live up to expectations? I thought it was a surprising blockbuster, especially coming the week after Inception.

Yeah, I agree. It almost hit $120m which is just shy of Wanted domestic take, so I would call it a success.

[Shrykespeare]

Well, if the Italians take the trouble to add it to the list, that means they're using it for THEIR game. Which means that adding it to our game should mean no extra work for them. And you're right, Surfer, if I deem that a film just isn't worth adding (like Vampires Suck a few months ago), I won't.

And Banks, just about everyone I know that saw Salt hated it. I may have been a blockbuster, but critically it was a bust. I expect that everyone that hated Salt will think twice before seeing The Tourist. And you're right, I've barely seen it advertised as well.

[Buscemi]

As I mentioned, The Tourist isn't being screened to critics. Reportedly the final cut was still being worked on by the time by the time scheduled press screenings were to happen and therefore, all critics screenings have been canceled (my best guess is that the director probably wants his film to be different than the other spy movies, also he has the most to lose since his last film was an Oscar winner). The same with the advertising since there is not enough footage to work with since there is no final cut to be seen. The earliest that anyone will see the film is Thursday night.