SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/3

[Shrykespeare]

Well, as it turns out the race for weekend supremacy between Harry Potter and Tangled came down to the wire, with the boy wizard beating out Disney’s latest by just over $1 million, a fact made even more remarkable by the fact that both films ended up around the $50 million mark for the three-day weekend. And to all you nay-sayers who doubted my extravagant prediction that Tangled would make around $70 million: (raspberry sound)!

The first weekend of December, as game veterans will tell you, is habitually a weak-as-hell time for brand new wide-release movies. Of the ten films to debut on this weekend over the last five years with a release platform of over 1,000 theaters, only one has debuted at #1, that being The Golden Compass, which managed $25.7 million in 2007 (but still went on to less-than-stellar overall numbers); the only other one to even crack the eight-figure barrier was 2005’s Aeon Flux, which debuted at #2 (and which also was seen as a flop).

Obviously, there are people who study trends like this, and only films with little or no potential at all are shoved into this spot (Punisher: War Zone, Armored, etc.). The, erm, relatively small outfit called Relativity Media (heh), is the only one game enough to put something into more than a thousand theaters on this weekend this year and that film is called The Warrior’s Way.

This title, from first-time director Sngmoo Lee, stars South Korean star Jang Don-gun (who, far from being an action star like Tony Jaa, is actually closer to being the Korean equivalent of George Clooney) as a warrior named Yang, who is assigned the task of killing the last surviving member of an enemy clan… the trouble is, the last survivor is a helpless baby. Though a fierce warrior, Yang can’t condone the murder of an innocent, so he instead takes the infant and flees the country, ending up in a small town in the American badlands. He befriends some of the locals, including Ron, the town drunk (played by the very busy Geoffrey Rush), and a circus knife-thrower named Lynne (Kate Bosworth). Together with the rest of the townsfolk, they must band together to face an army of ninja assassins who have crossed the ocean in pursuit of Yang.

It would seem from the trailer that there will be a lot of Crouching Tiger-style gravity-defying acrobatics involved, which tells me that like films like 300, this film was shot almost entirely on green-screen. Made for a budget of $40 million, The Warrior’s Way is due to be shown on approximately 1,500 screens starting Friday, which only puts it at around 11th-most overall. Not exactly awe-inspiring numbers.

First, the good news: it only costs $5 in both December leagues; since it’s in a leadoff week, it’s guaranteed at least two, possibly three PTA points. And if it can somehow buck the odds and make over $10 million, it has a good shot at two or three Top 5 points. Thing is, I don’t think it will. It’s barely been advertised at all, and I don’t believe it will manage much more than $7 million on its OW, which means it is a pretty safe bet to not make the Top 5 at all. With Harry Potter and Tangled likely to hang on to the 1-2 spots again this weekend (in whichever order), added to the miniscule drops incurred by Megamind and Unstoppable last weekend, The Warrior’s Way looks like a non-starter.

The remaining three films this week are all limited-release films. The one most worth mentioning is Black Swan, which, if you believe the hype, could easily become another PTA giant like 127 Hours or The King’s Speech. This film, the latest from acclaimed director Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler, Requiem For a Dream) stars Natalie Portman as Nina, a dancer who was just made prima ballerina for a NYC ballet company’s production of Swan Lake, replacing the former prima Beth (Winona Ryder). Nina is tapped for the starring role of the White Swan, a role that comes with no end of psychological and physical demands, including a rivalry that comes from another up-and-coming dancer named Lily (Mila Kunis), and the svengali-like charm of ballet maestro Thomas Leroy (French star Vincent Cassel).

What follows looks to be an almost noir-type psychological thriller as all of the pressure from both outside and within threatens to drive her mad. And while guys might see this film just for the make-out scene between Kunis and Portman, practically every critic has had naught but enormous praise for Black Swan. It debuted to a standing ovation at the Venice Film Festival, and was also showcased at Toronto and Telluride. It has a current RT score of 87% (on 27/31 reviews), and it will be shown on 19 screens this weekend, according to BOM.

In the October and November leagues, it will have to battle The King’s Speech and possibly I Love You Phillip Morris (more on that in a sec) for the PTA crown, and it’s certainly not a cheap property ($10 in Ultimate), but I would probably take it just for the User Rating alone. With over 1,400 votes on IMDb, it has a truly magnificent Rating of 8.9, which means that I probably won’t drop more than a few tenths at the most. And in the December leagues, The King’s Speech (which was released in November) won’t even factor in. I’m not sure what the expansion plan for this film is (or even if there is one), but I would count on no fewer than eight PTA points for Black Swan. That plus the Rating makes it easily worth it. $7 in Box Office is a tougher sell; if the film does expand, it may not expand wide enough or soon enough to make it a worthy choice.

To say that I Love You Phillip Morris’s path to theaters has been a rocky one would be putting it mildly. It was originally supposed to be released on April 30, but it was indefinitely postponed by its distributors, Consolidated Pictures Group. Then, CPG had a change of heart and decided to release it after all, in late July. However, due to legal battles, the film was pulled again from its time-slot. However, since then the film has been acquired by Roadside Attractions, and is now – finally – set to make its public debut this Friday, in six theaters.

The main character is Stephen Russell (Jim Carrey), a dying man who recounts the events of his life in a series of flashbacks. Starting out as a married, churchgoing Virginia Beach cop, Stephen’s life is turned upside down after a violent car crash, after which he decides to leave his family and nurture his homosexual tendencies. He moves to Miami, finds a boyfriend (Rodrigo Santoro) and soon realizes that his extravagant lifestyle can only be maintained by becoming a con man. However, this soon gets him sent to prison, and it is there that he instantly falls in love – and becomes obsessed, like Cable Guy-obsessed – with his cellmate, Phillip Morris (the adorable Ewan McGregor). Hijinks ensue.

Phillip Morris is rated R, but thankfully, most of the explicit gay content was edited out. It was shown at both Sundance and Cannes with mostly-good reviews (the current RT score is 78% on 29/37 positive). It will run you $6 in the December Ultimate leagues, and for that, you are sure to pick up at least four PTA points, along with a reasonable Rating of 6.7 (with well over 16,000 votes, so it won’t be changing at all on you). It is indeed scheduled for expansion on December 10, but whether that expansion will be wide enough to make it worth $6 in Box Office, I sincerely doubt.

Last up is Night Catches Us, a largely African-American period piece from Magnolia Pictures. Anthony Mackie stars as Marcus, a former Black Panther who returns to his Philadelphia neighborhood in 1976 to bury his father. Most of his neighbors treat him with contempt, since they believe that he ratted out a fellow Panther and fled. The only one who treats him with civility is another former Panther, Patricia (Kerry Washington), who is now an attorney and a community leader. Tensions, which are already heavy in a time when the race-war was reaching a boiling point (police beatings were commonplace), could take its toll on Marcus unless he makes peace with his former “brothers”.

On the surface, this might look like a throwaway film, a cheap option to fill out one’s roster. But as throwaways go, you could do worse. It’s only $4 in Ultimate, and, uncharacteristic of African-American films, it has a really good Rating (currently 7.4, but with only 100 votes). Plus, it’s assured of at least two, possibly three, PTA points, so there’s that. It is scheduled for release this Friday at five locations, with a very slight expansion to five more over the next two weeks, according to the film’s official site. Like I said, it’s certainly a safer option than most other films at this low price tag.


My predictions for the weekend of December 3-5, 2010:

1. Tangled - $28 million
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 - $23 million
3. Megamind - $10 million
4. Unstoppable - $8 million
5. The Warrior’s Way - $7 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, five more films come calling as we barrel full-speed-ahead towards Christmas, including: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, the third chapter in the Chronicles of Narnia series; espionage actioner The Tourist, starring the potent combination of Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie; the limited-release of The Fighter, a true-to-life sports film starring Mark Wahlberg, Christian Bale and Amy Adams; The Company Men, a drama starring Ben Affleck, Tommy Lee Jones and Chris Cooper; and The Tempest, a colorful interpretation of Shakespeare’s stirring drama from controversial director Julie Taymor.

Later!

[Buscemi]

I wouldn't recommend taking The Warrior's Way (unless you have a few spare dollars). After seeing how Relativity handled Let Me In so poorly, I'd be surprised if The Warrior's Way did even $4 million.

And you forgot to mention that I Love You Phillip Morris is based on a true story.

[numbersix]

I have Warrior's Way in a good few slates as a cheap source of BO but I too am beginning to worry about it. It just looks like a non-starter.

Black Swan will certainly be PTA king this weekend, and I'd say next weekend too. I'm not touching it in BO as I doubt it'll make beyond 20mil, but if it becomes an award winner, you never know.

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 - $27 million
2. Tangled - $25 million
3. Megamind - $8 million
4. Unstoppable - $6 million
5. The Warrior’s Way - $5 million

[Shrykespeare]

I have seen exactly two commercials for The Warrior's Way this week. Not a good sign.

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts:

The Warrior's Way - 1622
Black Swan - 18
I Love You, Phillip Morris - 6
Night Catches Us - 4
All Good Things - 2 (when was this moved from 12/17 to 12/3?! I didn't even notice!)


And next week (estimates):

TCON: Voyage of the Dawn Treader - 3500
The Tourist - N/A
The Fighter - N/A
The Company Men - N/A
The Tempest - 5

[Buscemi]

Check the release date thread more often, Shryke.

[Shrykespeare]

BTW, how do you guys feel about me making very late additions to the lineup with less than a month to go before their release? Manuela (donnie) often adds 11th-hour titles to the roster because it takes that long for BOM to put them on their own list. In order to keep pace, do you think we should add them as well, to give players who are really paying attention extra options? Or would that be unfair, do you think? Example: since All Good Things was moved to 12/3, there are now currently no limited-release films on tap for 12/17, and two very worthy-seeming titles COULD be added for that day. Maybe we could label it a "close-out" sale, or something like that. If you approve, let me know by this weekend what you think the prices should be. If you disapprove, please also say so.

Here is a list of possible late additions that are definitely available if you want them:

12/10 - And Everything is Going Fine - Spalding Gray documentary (8.6/32)
12/10 - Hemingway's Garden of Eden - Drama; Jack Huston, Mena Suvari, Richard E. Grant (5.3/56)
12/17 - Rabbit Hole - Drama; Nicole Kidman, Aaron Eckhart, Sandra Oh, Dianne Weist (8.6/304)
12/17 - Casino Jack - Drama; Kevin Spacey, Kelly Preston, Barry Pepper, Jon Lovitz (6.9/760)
12/29 - Biutiful - Drama; Javier Bardem (7.9/934)
1/14 - Barney's Verson - Comedy; Paul Giamatti, Rosamund Pike, Minnie Driver (7.5/136)

Here are some that are on BOM's list, but have not been added to the roster yet, but very likely will be:

2/4 - Waiting For Forever - Romance; Rachel Bilson, Blythe Danner, Nikki Blonsky (7.6/62)
2/11 - Cedar Rapids - Comedy; Sigourney Weaver, Ed Helms, John C. Reilly, Rob Corddry, Stephen Root

Here are some others that MIGHT become available if BOM ever puts them on their list:

1/14 - Every Day - Romantic comedy; Carla Gugino, Liev Schreiber, Helen Hunt (5.9/222)
1/21 - The Housemaid - Korean thriller; Do-yeon Jeon, Jung-Jae Lee (6.8/331)
1/28 - Poetry - Korean drama; Jeong-Hee Yoon, Da-Wit Lee (7.8/381)
2/4 - Cold Weather - Drama/thriller; Cris Lankenau, Trieste Kelly Dunn (7.0/90)
2/11 - In Her Skin (aka I Am You) - Australian drama/thriller; Guy Pearce, Sam Neill, Miranda Otto (7.1/38)
2/18 - Vanishing on 7th Street - Horror/thriller; Hayden Christensen, Thandie Newton, John Leguizamo (6.1/84)

[silversurfer19]

I would think movies like Rabbit Hole, Casino Jack and Biutiful should certainly be in the game, as they will almost certainly have a big impact on the PTA wars over the Christmas period.

[Shrykespeare]

Give me some prices, then. If I can get five different pricing schemes for these movies (including my own), I'll add them.

[Buscemi]

And Everything is Going Fine $3/$1
Hemingway's Garden of Eden $2/$1
Rabbit Hole $6/$3
Casino Jack $7/$4 (I imagine the film will get a big push since the director died recently)
Biutiful $8/$5
Barney's Version $6/$3

[silversurfer19]

12/10 - And Everything is Going Fine - $3/$1
12/10 - Hemingway's Garden of Eden - $2/$1
12/17 - Rabbit Hole - $5/$2
12/17 - Casino Jack - $5/$3
12/29 - Biutiful - $7/$4
1/14 - Barney's Verson - $4/$2

[Shrykespeare]

Added some more. Sorry about that.

[jas8382]

Ultimate/Box Office
12/10 - And Everything is Going Fine $2/$1
12/10 - Hemingway's Garden of Eden $2/$1
12/17 - Rabbit Hole $5/$3
12/17 - Casino Jack $4/$2
12/29 - Biutiful $4/$2
1/14 - Barney's Verson $5/$2
2/4 - Waiting For Forever $2/$1
2/11 - Cedar Rapids $4/$2
1/14 - Every Day $2/$1
1/21 - The Housemaid $2/$1
1/28 - Poetry $2/$1
2/4 - Cold Weather $2/$1
2/11 - In Her Skin (aka I Am You) $3/$1
2/18 - Vanishing on 7th Street $2/$1

[Shrykespeare]

Thanks jas! Keep em coming, everyone!

[englishozzy]

Here are a couple more prices if you need them;

12/10 - And Everything is Going Fine - $2/$1
12/10 - Hemingway's Garden of Eden - $2/$1
12/17 - Rabbit Hole - $5/$3
12/17 - Casino Jack - $5/$3
12/29 - Biutiful - $5/$2
1/14 - Barney's Verson - $4/$3
2/4 - Waiting For Forever - $3/$2
2/11 - Cedar Rapids - $4/$3

1/14 - Every Day - Romantic comedy; $4/$3
1/21 - The Housemaid - Korean thriller; $2/$1
1/28 - Poetry - $2/$1
2/4 - Cold Weather - $3/$1
2/11 - In Her Skin (aka I Am You) - $3/$2
2/18 - Vanishing on 7th Street - $3/$3