SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/24, 11/26

[Shrykespeare]

Ah-ooo-ga. Not only did Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 score over $125 million and break the franchise record for OW that had stood since Goblet of Fire in 2005, but it turned in the sixth-biggest opening in history. $300 million is virtually assured, as is the winter box office crown. And to top that off, it was the easy victor in PTA. But then, nearly everyone picked for nearly all of your rosters, so you didn’t need me to tell you that, did you?

The big question is, what happens now? Well, as I said before, I don’t believe anything is going to come along to dethrone Deathly Hallows for at least two more weeks, when the next Chronicles of Narnia film hits theaters. There are four movies opening this Wednesday, Thanksgiving Eve, and though they may not have the proverbial snowball’s chance at the #1 spot, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are bad picks. For one thing, there is only one wide-release movie coming next week (The Warrior’ Way), and that film’s potential looks extremely weak. What that means is, any film in the Top 5 this weekend is sure to be in the Top 5 next weekend, so there’s that.

By far, the film this week with the most hype surrounding it is Tangled, Disney’s latest fun-for-the-family animated film based on a fairy tale. Now, everyone knows that Disney’s golden-age versions of Cinderella, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs and Sleeping Beauty are undeniable classics. But for some reason, until now they’ve never tackled the legendary German fairy tale Rapunzel. (And why they decided to named the film Tangled rather than simply call it “Disney’s Rapunzel” is beyond me, since everybody has at least HEARD of Rapunzel.)

The story: once upon a time, a king and queen were expecting their first child, a girl. However, the queen became ill during her pregnancy, threatening the baby’s life, so a servant steals a magical healing plant from an evil witch’s garden. The witch, known as Mother Gothel, uses the plant to frequently restore herself to youth. Furious at the theft, she kidnaps the baby Rapunzel and locks her away in a remote tower, forbidding her from ever leaving.

Years later, a handsome thief named Flynn (Chuck’s Zachary Levi), on the lam after stealing the crown jewels, comes upon Rapunzel’s tower, and decides to use it as a hiding place. Of course, he is surprised to find (and be overpowered by) the unfortunate princess (Mandy Moore), who possess a head of hair that is not only a hundred feet long but she can apparently control as if it were one of her limbs. The two make a deal that she will return the jewels if he helps break her out of her stronghold and return her to her family. Of course, Mother Gothel (Donna Murphy) will no doubt have something to say about this. Brad Garrett, Ron Perlman, Jeffrey Tambor and Richard Kiel also lend their voice talents.

Unlike last year’s The Princess and the Frog, which was definitely a throwback to the olden days of Disney with its hand-drawn animation and musical numbers, Tangled looks to be a lot more modernized. I’m not sure if it will also include musical numbers, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised. And, lest I fail to mention it, it will be showcased in many 3D locations, where it should do well until The Chronicles of Narnia and Tron Legacy take over for it.

Tangled will run you $18 in both November leagues. For that, I expect 11-12 Top 5 points and at least three PTA. I also expect the Rating to be outstanding, perhaps even over 8.0. The critics have gone gaga for it so far (9/9 positive on RT), and I fully expect that kids and their parents will as well. I predict $43 million for Tangled’s three-day OW and $72 million for the five-day weekend (it’s in over 3,500 theaters), on its way to $180 million overall. It could even crack $200 million, when you consider that animated movies tend to have terrific legs, as well as the fact that are no more animated movies on tap for quite a long time. If you have room on your slate for this, by all means, take it. It’s sure to be worth its price tag, which is an appellation that I can’t yet attach to any of the December films.

Up next is Love and Other Drugs, the latest rom-com from Fox Studios, which will be given a release platform of 2,300 locations this Wednesday. This film marks a tremendous change of tempo for director Edward Zwick, who has helmed some of the most compelling, stirring dramas of the last two decades (Glory, Courage Under Fire, The Siege, The Last Samurai, Blood Diamond, Defiance).

It stars Jake Gyllenhaal as Jamie Randall, a 1990’s pharmaceutical rep whose favorite things are making money and wooing attractive ladies. At roughly the same time that a revolutionary new sexual potency drug called Viagra is developed, giving Jamie the opportunity of a lifetime, he meets Maggie Murdock (Anne Hathaway), a free-spirit who eschews conventional relationships. But after a whirlwind of casual sex, the two players find that they have an undeniable romantic connection with each other. Oliver Platt, Hank Azaria, Gabriel Macht, George Segal, Judy Greer and Josh Gad co-star.

Interestingly enough, this marks the third consecutive week that will feature the release of a film that was shot primarily in Pennsylvania (Pittsburgh, to be exact), following Unstoppable and The Next Three Days. Love and Other Drugs looks like a good enough movie to bring a date to over the holiday weekend, and despite the fact that it will be shown in fewer theaters than Burlesque (more on that in a moment), I think it will cop the #3 spot ahead of it. It hasn’t gotten terrific reviews (38% at RT, with a 6.5 Rating on IMDb on 234 votes), but it’s got a fresher, more recognizable cast than early November’s Morning Glory.

For $9 in Ultimate ($8 in Box Office), you can expect six Top 5 points, maybe two PTA, and an OW of $16 million ($27 for the five-day), on its way to perhaps $53 million. There’s always one really big romantic comedy each holiday season, and I expect that to be How Do You Know this year. But Love and Other Drugs should do okay. At least it’s cheap enough to merit consideration.

Burlesque is 2010’s one big-budget “musical”, and I’m sure Sony Screen Gems is hoping against hope that it can fare better than last winter’s Nine, which failed to make $20 million despite one of the most impressive casts ever assembled. It will be debuting in over 2,800 theaters this Wednesday, and it stars two of the biggest pop music icons in history.

Directed by Steve Antin, Burlesque tells the story of Alice Marilyn “Ali” Rose (Christina Aguilera, making her acting debut), a small-town girl with big-town dreams, who journeys to Los Angeles and ends up taking a job as a cocktail waitress in a majestic but failing theater called The Burlesque Lounge, which features sexy and provocative dances aplenty (if you don’t know what burlesque is, it’s about halfway between theater and exotic dancing). Wooed by the glamour and lifestyle of the genre, Ali does her best to impress the club’s owner Tess (Cher, appearing in her first film in seven years), who, once hearing Ali’s impressive voice, decides to give her a shot at it. The cast also includes Stanley Tucci, Kristen Bell, Cam Gigandet, Alan Cumming, Glynn Turman and Dancing With the Stars’ Julianne Hough.

Once upon a time, I made the terrible mistake of severely underestimating the box office potential of both Hairspray and Mamma Mia! However, I can’t shake the feeling that Burlesque will end up closer to Fame in total output. Besides Xtina fans and a good portion of the gay community, I’m not sure who would line up to see this film. For $8 in Ultimate ($9 in Box Office), I expect only three Top 5 points, no PTA, a semi-reasonable Rating (around 7.0) and $46 million overall, with $14 million in its first three days and $24 million in its first five. It’s fairly cheap, but I honestly think you can do better.

With four films debuting against the behemoth that is Harry Potter, one movie has to get the shortest shrift, and that will probably be Faster, from CBS films. It stars the actor formerly known as “The Rock”, Dwayne Johnson as Driver, an ex-con who gets out of prison to seek bloody revenge on the gang of thieves that murdered his brother during a failed bank robbery and had him sent up for ten years. While systematically offing everyone on his list, he is also pursued by two others himself: a veteran cop mere days from retirement (Billy Bob Thornton) and a young, arrogant hitman (Oliver Jackson-Cohen). Moon Bloodgood, Maggie Grace, Carla Gugino, Tom Berenger and Mike Epps also co-star.

After his slew of family-oriented comedies (The Game Plan, Get Smart, Planet 51, Tooth Fairy), this dark-as-hell revenge flick is somewhat of a departure for Johnson. Faster is, in fact, his first R-rated film since the ill-fated video-game adaptation Doom. And while I think that Johnson has a considerable fan-base, I think they’ll wait for him to appear in next spring’s Fast Five, instead of this film, which may as well have been called Even Faster and Really Goddamn Furious.

2,300 is the number of theaters that will be showing Faster starting Wednesday, which is a much lower number than I was expecting. For $12 in Ultimate ($13 in Box Office) you will get nothing that you want. Maybe one Top 5 point, two at the most, no PTA, and perhaps $33 million in total take. Pass by this one at breakneck speed.

To say that The King’s Speech has been generating Oscar buzz would be to damn it with faint praise. From Director Tom Hooper (The Damned United) comes this historical drama starring Colin Firth as George VI, who was the King of England from 1936-52. This, of course, includes the dark years of WWII, the time when Nazi Germany attempted to seize control of all Europe.

If there is one thing George VI was famous for, it was his speech impediment; he had a stutter that made public speaking a nightmare. But when the nation faced the biggest crisis, he had no choice but to engage the services of speech therapist Lionel Logue (Geoffrey Rush) to help George not only to overcome his speaking difficulties but to instill the type of self-confidence that comes with being England’s symbol of hope. Helena Bonham Carter also co-stars as Queen Elizabeth.

At the 2010 Toronto International Film Festival, The King’s Speech received a standing ovation and walked off with the People’s Choice Award. It currently holds an RT score of 86% (18/21), a terrific Rating of 8.4 (with nearly 500 votes), and is probably the surest bet at this point to be nominated for numerous Oscars, including Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Director and Best Picture. It will be debuting on only four screens this Friday (not Wednesday), and if it doesn’t win the PTA race by a HUGE margin, I will be very surprised. For $6 in Ultimate, you could be getting anywhere from eight to twelve PTA points, possibly more. For $4 in Box Office, I would be very wary… it would take, really, $20 million in receipts to be worth it, and it’s entirely possible that The King’s Speech wouldn’t go wide until around Oscar time, which might be too late to earn enough bucks before the season ends. But, for God’s sake, take it in Ultimate.


My predictions for the weekend of November 24/26-28, 2010:

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 - $66 million ($83 million 5-day)
2. Tangled - $43 million ($72 million 5-day)
3. Love and Other Drugs - $16 million ($27 million 5-day)
4. Burlesque - $14 million ($24 million 5-day)
5. Faster - $12 million ($19 million 5-day)


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we begin the final month of 2010 with four more films, in what is categorically one of the weakest box office weeks of the year. The only wide-release film is The Warrior’s Way, a highly-CGI’d action film starring Dong-gun Jang, Kate Bosworth and Geoffrey Rush; Black Swan, a dramatic thriller from Darren Aronofsky starring Natalie Portman, Vincent Kassel and Mila Kunis; I Love You Phillip Morris, the oft-postponed dark comedy starring Jim Carrey and Ewen McGregor; and Night Catches Us, a romantic drama starring Kerry Washington and Anthony Mackie.

Later!

[Buscemi]

I'll go with...

Harry Potter $65 million
Tangled $29 million ($46 million five-day)
Faster $10 million ($15 million five-day)
Love and Other Drugs $8 million ($13 million five-day)
Burlesque $6 million ($10 million five-day)

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Tangled 72 MILLION FIVE DAY?!?!?!

I'm not even....what....what in the hell...

[numbersix]

Agreed, Banks. While Tangled is a kid oriented movie, Harry Potter is still going to take a lot of its potential audience away. however, Enchanted made 34 mil on its opening weekend and I think Tangled can do the same. Burlesque just sounds like a disaster and a little too late for Aguilera. If Lady Gaga was in it, that would be different (though tracking does say mid 20s for the 5 day). Faster comes after Unstoppable and I think adult action has been saturated, so I don't see it going anywhere. Not sure what to make of Love and Other drugs. I hate the trailer but I guess it's a date movie option, right?

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 - $60 mil ($75 mil 5-day)
2. Tangled - $35 mil ($46 mil 5-day)
3. Love and Other Drugs - $12 mil ($20 mil 5-day)
4. Faster - $10 million ($16 million 5-day)
5. Burlesque - $9 million ($13 million 5-day)

And yeah, The King's Speech is a PTA-winning cert, but with Black Swan and Philip Morris out next week, I'm not sure if it's worth it in the long run.

[Buscemi]

Unstoppable hasn't been doing as well as expected (probably because of Washington and Scott doing the same thing last year) while Faster is Dwayne Johnson's first action movie in quite a while (for a while, he swore them off because of Doom's poor reception). I think it will do a little better than expected. Meanwhile, I've seen Twitter tracking on Love and Other Drugs comparing it to Remember Me and Charlie St. Cloud in terms of pre-release hype. That is not good if it wants to break out. Also, reviews have been weak.

[transformers2]

Here are picks for the weekend
1.Harry Potter $70 Mil 5-Day
2.Tangled 48 Mil 5-Day
3.Love and Other Drugs 25 Mil 5-Day
4.Faster 18 Mil 5-Day
5.Burlesque 11 Mil 5-Day

[Buscemi]

Early estimate: Tangled $10-11 million opening day.

[numbersix]

A 10 mil opening should give it a 60-70 mil 5-day weekend

[Buscemi]

I think I may have gotten the best pick of the fifth round in the Full Year Draft.

[Shrykespeare]

Tangled 72 MILLION FIVE DAY?!?!?!

I'm not even....what....what in the hell...

A 10 mil opening should give it a 60-70 mil 5-day weekend

Jeez, when are you people going to start believing me?!

[Geezer]

I know right, shouldn't you trust Shryke at this point!

[Shrykespeare]

Wednesday Estimates

Harry Potter, $14.5M
Tangled, $11.6M
Burlesque, $2.8M
Megamind, $2.7M
Love and Other Drugs, $2.2M
Unstoppable, $1.9M
Faster, $1.6M

[numbersix]

At this rate Tangled should pretty much hit your 72 mil estimate. Dude, you need to start making a career out of this!

[Buscemi]

I guess you call Faster a disaster.

[Shrykespeare]

At this rate Tangled should pretty much hit your 72 mil estimate. Dude, you need to start making a career out of this!

That's what I keep saying! Just as long as they ignore my way-over-the-top estimate for The Next Three Days...