SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/19

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/19

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As anticipated, the healthy legs of DreamWorks’ latest outing, Megamind, proved to be too much for Denzel Washington and a million-ton train, beating out Unstoppable for the box office crown this past weekend. It would seem that Megamind is on its way to at least $150 million, so kudos. Meanwhile, 127 Hours, Danny Boyle’s latest potential award-winner, stole away with the PTA crown, and probably isn’t done in that category just yet. Another Slumdog? It’s certainly beginning to look that way!

It’s always a bit intimidating trying to predict the box-office potential of the season’s biggest gun, and make no mistake, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 is, by far, the hugest potential property of the winter seasons. It’s also the most expensive (duh), so the question you must ask yourself is: is it worth spending a full third of my budget on it? In some cases, the answer would be no, but here, I’ll simply begin by saying that I can’t imagine anyone winning any of their leagues without it.

Really, what can be said about the entire Harry Potter franchise that even the most disassociated moviegoer doesn’t know already? The films, based on the multi-multi-mondo-bonzo-selling series of books, have earned, over the course of six chapters, earned $1.7 billion in the U.S. and $5.4 billion internationally, which far and away makes it the most lucrative adaptations in the history of ever. The main characters, who started out as cute, adorable little preteen moppets, are now full-fledged young adults, and the expectations for the final chapter in the series are outrageously high, to say the least.

Of course, The Deathly Hallows, J.K. Rowling’s climactic final volume, was so large and lengthy that Warner Bros. decided to break it into two segments. The second segment will be coming to theaters next July, and the first will come to theaters this Friday. (Note: this was originally set to be coming in 3D versions as well, but that idea was scrapped.) And, as you might expect, nearly every major movie house in the country is saving a place for it, and you can expect a total screen count well over 4,000.

For those who are not HP fans, I won’t spend much time on the plot. The last movie, The Half-Blood Prince, ended with Harry’s mentor, Hogwart’s headmaster Professor Dumbledore meeting his death at the hands of the evil Voldemort’s minions. Deathly Hallows continues with Voldemort ascending to power and taking over the Ministry of Magic. Meanwhile, with Hogwart’s closed, Harry (Daniel Radcliffe), Hermione (Emma Watson) and Ron (Rupert Grint) must scour the lands to find and destroy a group of objects called Horcruxes, devices which contain pieces of Voldemort’s life-force. The trio most succeed in this endeavor before Voldemort (Ralph Fiennes) achieves immortality and omnipotence over not only the wizard world but ours as well.

This is the fourth film in the series to be given a winter release. Only one film of the bunch was able to crack $100 million in its first three days (Goblet of Fire managed $102 million in 2005), and so far, only two of the seven have been able to earn $300 million domestically. With the series mere months from its conclusion and the drama and excitement building to a head, I fully expect DH1 to not only beat GoF’s OW, but also to beat the total output of $317 million of The Sorcerer’s Stone, the franchise’s very first chapter that hasn’t been eclipsed since.

In all, I expect $107 million for this film’s opening weekend, and a total take of $330 million, a high in both categories that will, in turn, be beaten by the series’ swan song next July. But more than that: Deathly Hallows is in an excellent position to win three consecutive weekends. About the only film that even has a remote chance of surpassing it is Disney’s Tangled, which comes out next week over the Thanksgiving holiday. There’s certainly nothing to take it on the first week of December. I don’t expect Deathly Hallows to cede its #1 position until the next Narnia movie comes out on 12/10. That means around nineteen Top 5 points, at least seven PTA, and a terrific Rating in the mid-to-high 7’s. It will run you $32 in the Ultimate leagues ($35 in Box Office), and honestly, I think it’s more than worth it. Hell, I’d spend $45 on it. Looking up and down the rest of the winter lineup, there is not one title that’s a surefire bet to hit $200 million, and Deathly Hallows should easily hit $300 million. Take this film. I pretty much guarantee that you won’t win without it.

Only one other film has the moxie to go toe-to-toe with the boy wizard on its OW, and that is The Next Three Days, a dramatic thriller from Lionsgate that is directed by Canadian-American auteur Paul Haggis (Crash, In the Valley of Elah). A remake of the 2007 French film Pour Elle (Anything For Her), the film stars Russell Crowe, Elizabeth Banks, Liam Neeson, Brian Dennehy, Daniel Stern and Olivia Wilde.

The plot: the quiet life of married couple John and Lara Brennan (Crowe, Banks) is destroyed when Lara is arrested for murder. Despite all of John’s protestations of his wife’s innocence as well as every effort he makes to prove otherwise, it would seem that the case against Lara is ironclad. Determined not to leave his wife to die in prison and have their three-year-old son grow up without a mother, he turns in desperation to his last recourse: to break her out of prison. For this he turns to a man named Damon Pennington (Neeson) for advice and help on how to accomplish this extremely difficult feat.

On the surface, this looks to be a gripping, entertaining thriller, and any other week, I might be recommending it a lot more. But it’s only being released in 2,500 theaters, which makes me think that it might not even have enough of an audience to get second place this weekend, given how small Megamind’s drop was last week. For $12 in Ultimate ($11 in Box Office), you’re looking at about $52 million in total receipts, which is not bad, but not spectacular either. I envision only three or four Top 5 points, maybe one or two PTA, a decent rating around 7.0, and $19 million for The Next Three Days, erm, first three days. You’re better off spending that money on possible PTA giants like Black Swan or The Fighter, or possibly the appeal of True Grit.

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two limited-release features:

Made in Dagenham ($4 Ult) – Director Nigel Cole (Calendar Girls) is behind the camera for this dramatization of the sewing machinists strike of 1968 at the Ford Dagenham assembly plant, where the female workers walked out in protest against sexual discrimination and their desire for equal pay (an act that was instrumental in the passing of the Equal Pay act of 1970).

The film stars a bevy of notable English actors, including Miranda Richardson, Sally Hawkins, Bob Hoskins, Rosamund Pike and Jaime Winstone. It has gotten absolutely stellar reviews (44/48 for 92% at RT), and it also has a very decent Rating (7.0 with over 400 votes). It is debuting in three theaters this Friday, and if it weren’t for Harry Potter, I’d peg this for the PTA crown in a heartbeat. As it is, I think you’ll get at least four PTA points from it before all is said and done.

White Material ($3 Ult) – This is a 2009 French-language film from director Claire Denis (35 Shots of Rum). It stars Isabelle Huppert (I Heart Huckabees) as Maria Vial, a farmer who runs a failing coffee plantation in an unnamed African country with her husband Andre (Christopher Lambert, who I haven’t seen much of in the last fifteen years apart from horrible Highlander sequels). Finding a workforce to harvest her coffee crop becomes problematic and dangerous when civil war breaks out, and Maria must find a way to hold on to what little she has without becoming a casualty of said war.

White Material has also gotten outstanding reviews (24/26 for 92% at RT) as well as a nomination for Claire Denis for the Golden Lion award at the Venice Film Festival. It also has a terrific Rating (7.3 with 450 votes), and it too is being showcased in three locations starting this Friday. It’s only $3, so I would imagine at least two PTA points are in store, but it’s got some tough competition in Harry Potter, Made in Dagenham and the continued success of 127 Hours (which may be expanding this week, but how widely I don’t know at this time.)


My predictions for the weekend of November 19-21, 2010:

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 - $107 million
2. Megamind - $20 million
3. The Next Three Days - $19 million
4. Unstoppable - $12 million
5. Due Date - $7 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, five movies will be debuting on Wednesday, which just happens to be the day preceding the four-day Thanksgiving long holiday weekend. They are: Tangled, Disney’s 3D take on the fairy-tale story of Rapunzel; Faster, a dark action-revenge film starring Dwayne Johnson; Love and Other Drugs, a romantic comedy starring Jake Gyllenhaal and Anne Hathaway; Burlesque, a musical starring pop icons Christina Aguilera and Cher; and The King’s Speech, a based-on-historical-events story starring Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush, and a bona fide contender for Best Picture next year.

Later!





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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/19

Post by numbersix »

Hmmm, I will say Potter will do even better than that, based on tracking and also the idea that it's finally coming to a close, not to mention increase in prices etc. The Next Three Days looks like it's stuck between better marketed action films (Unstoppable and Faster), and Crowe is just not liked any more.

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 - $120 million
2. Megamind - $19 million
3. The Next Three Days - $11 million
4. Unstoppable - $11 million
5. Due Date - $8 million

As for PTA, Made in Dagenham got mediocre reviews over there but did okay. As a limited release, I think the well-reviewed White Material may beat it.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/19

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

I think Harry Potter will get at least $130M.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/19

Post by thswrestler160 »

actually Half blood prince made 107 in its first 3 days so it will be the third to crack 100.

I say 125/320 easy for harry

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/19

Post by Buscemi »

1. Harry Potter $125 million
2. Megamind $20 million
3. Unstoppable $11 million
4. The Next Three Days $11 million
5. Due Date $7 million
-- Morning Glory $5 million
-- Skyline $4 million
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/19

Post by Buscemi »

Friday Numbers

Harry Potter $65 million Friday/$140 million weekend

Nothing else yet.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/19

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates:

Harry Potter, $61.15M
Unstoppable, $4.075M
Megamind, $3.73M
Due Date, $2.925
The Next Three Days, $2.2M
Morning Glory, $1.612M
Skyline, $1.067M
Red, $720K
For Colored Girls, $675K
Fair Game, $375K

I'm betting TNTD will end up ahead of Due Date, but that's a lot less than I was expecting. Wow.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/19

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Wow, The Next Three Days pretty much flopped. I thought the counter-programming was actually a good idea.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/19

Post by Buscemi »

The reviews weren't very good on it. Also, the film is probably thirty minutes too long (a much shorter film would have fared better financially) and the trailer basically shows you the whole film (unless the ending is what I think it is and that Elizabeth Banks really is a murderer and kills Russell Crowe to avoid having baggage during her escape).

Also, I knew it was a flop when the theatre I was at yesterday had Easy A (in its tenth week, believe it or not, while less cold titles like Jackass 3-D and For Colored Girls have left) in a bigger auditorium than it.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/19

Post by Shrykespeare »

Sunday Estimates

Top 5:
5 points - Harry Potter, $125.1M
4 points - Megamind, $16.2M ($109.5M overall)
3 points - Unstoppable, $13.1M
2 points - Due Date, $9.2M
1 point - The Next Three Days, $6.8M (holy shit, what a bomb)


PTA:
5 points - Harry Potter, $30,332
4 points - Made in Dagenham, $13,700
3 points - White Material, $12,100
2 points - 127 Hours, $8,472
1 point - Megamind, $4,280


User Ratings:
Harry Potter - 8.3
The Next Three Days - 7.2
Made in Dagenham - 7.0
White Material - 7.2
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/19

Post by Shrykespeare »

Sunday Actuals

Top 5:
5 points - Harry Potter, $125.0 million
4 points - Megamind, $16.0 million
3 points - Unstoppable, $13.0 million
2 points - Due Date, $8.9 million
1 point - The Next Three Days, $6.5M

PTA:
5 points - Harry Potter, $30,307
4 points - Made in Dagenham, $12,521
3 points - White Material, $11,538
2 points - 127 Hours, $8,486
1 point - Megamind, $4,237

So the $4 Made in Dagenham gets 4 points and the $3 White Material gets 3 points. Kind of poetic.
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