SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/12

[Shrykespeare]

The winter season got off to a definite bang this past weekend, as new release comprised the top three money earners and all five PTA point-getters. Megamind cracked $47 million in three days, a good start to another almost-surefire hit for DreamWorks. 127 Hours, meanwhile, is for the moment proving to be a worthy successor for Danny Boyle, coming off his Best Director/Best Picture feat with Slumdog Millionaire from two years ago. It made well over $60,000 in each of the four theaters that showcased it, which far and away was enough to earn the PTA crown this week. And depending on its expansion schedule, it may cop quite a bit more than that.

Only three new films are on tap this week, and they are all wide-release titles, each being shown on well over 2,000 screens. This could be a tough week to break out, however, coming hot on the heels of Megamind’s success and with the next Harry Potter film looming one week in the future. Megamind, being the type of film that appeals to multiple age groups and being in 3D to boot, is a good bet to suffer only a small drop, and could repeat at #1 this coming weekend.

If any of this week’s three films does have the moxie to unseat DreamWorks’ latest, however, it would probably be Unstoppable, which marks the fifth time that director Tony Scott has engaged the services of actor Denzel Washington to play the leading role. It is also, like Déjà Vu and last year’s The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3, first and foremost an action movie, though this one looks to be a lot more balls-out than anything he has done so far.

Considering some of the circumstances that have plagued the making of this film since its inception, it’s somewhat of a miracle it made it to theaters at all. First Tony Scott had to take over for 20th Century Fox’s first choice, Martin Campbell. Then, Fox asked that the budget be cut from $107 million down to $90, which involved both Scott and Washington taking pay cuts, a cut that Washington initially refused, and had to be enticed back by a modified offer from Scott.

This film is loosely based on the events on the “Crazy Eights” incident of 2001. What happened was, an unmanned train left its railyard in Walbridge, Ohio and quickly sped out of control due to the throttle being applied on full instead of the brake. It took two hours and the efforts of dozens of people to avert disaster, which, given the train’s payload that included thousands of gallons of toxic chemicals, makes the feat quite heroic indeed.

The train in Unstoppable is a half-mile long, also unmanned, and also containing enough toxic chemicals to wipe out a geographical area many miles in diameter. When the train’s speed becomes dangerous enough to obliterate anything in its path, it is up to two engineers to save the day: veteran Frank Barnes (Washington) and youngster Will Colson (Star Trek’s Chris Pine). Rosario Dawson, Kevin Dunn and Ethan Suplee also co-star.

To accurately predict how well this film might do, it’s worth looking back to the last ten years. In that time, Scott has helmed four big-budget action films. In 2001, Spy Game netted $62 million. In 2004, Man On Fire earned almost $78 million. In 2006, Déjà Vu underwhelmed with only $64 million, and last year, Pelham pulled in $65 million and was soundly thrashed by most critics. You’d have to go back to 1998 for Scott’s last blockbuster (Enemy of the State, $111 million). Put all that together, I see nothing about Unstoppable that feels like it’s going to break Scott’s current streak.

Unstoppable – which will be shown in over 3,100 theaters - will run you $15 in the November Ultimate leagues and $16 in Box Office. I think that its OW will be close to Megamind’s second week, say $26 million, but not quite enough to capture #1. For that amount of money, I think you’ll earn six or seven Top 5 points, three PTA, a Rating in the high 6’s and about $69 million. I don’t think that’s quite impressive enough to risk gambling its current asking price on it.

Next up is Skyline, a sci-fi film from Universal from directors Greg and Colin Strause. This pair of brothers, who have been the geniuses behind the visual effects from some of the biggest films of the past decade (including The Day After Tomorrow, 300, 2012 and Avatar), make their big-budget debut with this film, the first in quite some time to feature a full-scale alien invasion of Earth.

The premise: much like Independence Day, a flotilla of alien spacecraft appear and hover over each of Earth’s major cities. But their mission doesn’t seem to be destruction: they send out vast beams of light over the population, and anyone unlucky enough to be exposed to said light vanishes into thin air or gets sucked up into the belly of the spacecraft. If you’ve seen the trailer, you’ll know that these aliens definitely mean bid’ness.

Unlike Independence Day, however, there are no big-name stars like Will Smith or Jeff Goldblum to help take them down. Rather, the film seems to center on a small group of Angelinos, who must find a way to survive the malevolent aliens plans, and perhaps discover a way to fight back before all mankind is swallowed up. The cast is made up chiefly of TV actors, including Eric Balfour (Haven, 24), Scottie Thompson (Trauma, NCIS), Brittany Daniel (The Game, That 80’s Show), David Zayas (Dexter, The Expendables) and Donald Faison (Scrubs).

If Wikipedia is to be believed, the budget for Skyline was only about $20 million, which is even less than last summer’s surprise sci-fi hit District 9 had. Still, judging from the trailer, it was money well spent, and it’s been advertised very impressively so far. For that reason, I will put its OW slightly ahead of Due Date’s second week for #3, because I believe that bad WOM for that film will manifest itself in a significant drop. Say, $19 million for Skyline’s first three days, on its way to four Top 5 points, maybe one or two PTA, a fair-to-decent Rating and about $42 million overall. I think that for $10 in Ultimate ($11 in Box Office), you can do better.

Opening this Wednesday is this week’s third and final release, that being Morning Glory, a rather rote-looking rom-com from Paramount and director Roger Michell (Notting Hill). It stars Rachel McAdams as aspiring news producer Becky Fuller, who thinks that her path to career success lies in breathing life back into a TV morning show that seems to be on its last legs. Of course, when doing so means getting control of its two aging co-anchors (Harrison Ford and Diane Keaton), who have a long-running feud going, Becky may be in for a rough trip. Jeff Goldblum, Ty Burrell and Patrick Wilson co-star, and there is also a cameo by rap star 50 Cent.

The film looks very sweet in places, but I’m betting those scenes are interspersed with a lot of dreck, which unfortunately describes most PG-13-rated comedies these days. I anticipate scores of foul reviews for Morning Glory in due course, and honestly, I wouldn’t spend $10 on this property if my life depended on it… not with fare more enticing comic fare like Love and Other Drugs, How Do You Know and Little Fockers coming up in the next two months. In all, I predict a $13 million OW ($33 million overall), one Top 5, zero PTA and a very average Rating. For $10 on this property (in both leagues), I’d stay the hell away.



My predictions for the weekend of November 12-14, 2010:

1. Megamind - $27 million
2. Unstoppable - $26 million
3. Skyline - $19 million
4. Due Date - $17 million
5. Morning Glory - $13 million ($20 million 5-day)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the second-to-last chapter in the Harry Potter series, entitled Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1, hits theaters, and while it seems to be merely a set-up for next July’s grand finale, it’s shaping up to perhaps be the highest-grossing chapter thus far. Also out is The Next Three Days, a dramatic thriller starring Russell Crowe and Liam Neeson and helmed by Crash director Paul Haggis, as well as limited-release features Made in Dagenham and White Material.

Later!

[Buscemi]

I'll go with...

1. Megamind $32 million
2. Skyline $23 million
3. Unstoppable $18 million
4. Due Date $17 million
5. Morning Glory $12 million ($16.5 million five-day)

[numbersix]

I haven't seen any tracking as of late, but Skyline looks like a bit of a non-starter. Think you need a lot of marketing and a big star to make this work. Unstoppable looks generic but may do ok at best. Morning Glory is another dead flick.

1. Megamind $26 mil
2. Unstoppable $20 mil
3. Due Date $18 mil
4. Skyline $15 mil
5. Morning Glory $10 mil

[Buscemi]

Has tracking changed? Last time I checked, it was Skyline at low 20's and Unstoppable at mid teens. Also, Skyline has been getting a lot of marketing and buzz (which is surprising actually).

[numbersix]

The lack of stars may affect it, I don't know. And the only tracking I've seen was RS's last week, and their advanced tracking can be grossly inaccurate. No tracking this week so far.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Wow, if you think Skyline will outgross Unstoppable, you're crazy.

Skyline has nothing going for it, a cheap-looking alien invasion flick from the directors of AVP:R and starring a whole bunch of nobodies. This is not District 9.

I see it going 15/30 at best.

I think Unstoppable will play well through Thanksgiving as I think the Thanksgiving movies are especially weak this year. It should get up to #2 this weekend.

[Buscemi]

With Unstoppable it doesn't help that Washington and Scott did basically the same movie last year, which was an underperformer. As for Skyline, it probably helps that everyone has forgotten about Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem.

[Buscemi]

And according to the other tracking site, Unstoppable is at mid 20's and Skyline is at mid teens. This could actually be a much closer weekend than expected with no definitive predictions (however, I still think audiences will view Unstoppable as being the same thing as The Taking of Pelham 123).

[Shrykespeare]

And according to the other tracking site, Unstoppable is at mid 20's and Skyline is at mid teens. This could actually be a much closer weekend than expected with no definitive predictions (however, I still think audiences will view Unstoppable as being the same thing as The Taking of Pelham 123).

You're giving audiences a lot of credit. Besides the fact that both movies had Denzel, I doubt most people will do enough research to know that Tony Scott directed both... the commercials/trailers comment "from the director of Man on Fire". Given the premise, they're just as likely to equate the premise to that of Speed. There are no OTT bad guys in this one.

[Buscemi]

Not only Denzel, but Tony Scott and trains as well. In fact, the film almost didn't get made because of the similarities.

[transformers2]

I think this weekend will shake out like this.

1.Megamind $33 Mil
2.Unstoppable $24 Mil
3.Due Date $18 Mil
4.Morning Glory $14 Mil
5.Skyline $12 Mil

[silversurfer19]

I think your estimate for Megamind is a little too ambitious tranny. I forsee somewhere between a 35-40% drop for its second weekend (similar to Despicable Me and How To Train Your Dragon), which would give it a much more realistic $28-30m. And with Morning Glory opening on a Wednesday i think your $14m is also a little high, maybe somewhere in the region of $10m.

[Buscemi]

Morning Glory bombed on opening day with only $1 million (with a PTA of under $400). You can probably expect a weekend of under $10 million.

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

Unstoppable - 3207
Skyline - 2880
Morning Glory - 2518

Fair Game expands to 175.


Next week, look for Harry Potter to open in well over 4,000.

[Buscemi]

Friday and projected weekend numbers (from Deadline):

1. Unstoppable (Fox) NEW [3,207 Theaters]
Friday $8.5M, Estimated Weekend $24.5M

2. Megamind 3D (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount) Week 2 [3,949 Theaters]
Friday $6.9M (-45%), Estimated Weekend $25.5M, Estimated Cume $85M

3. Skyline (Relativity/Universal) NEW [2,880 Theaters]
Friday $5.5M, Estimated Weekend $14M

4. Due Date (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,365 Theaters]
Friday $5.3M (-56%), Estimated Weekend $16.5M, Estimated Cume $60M

5. Morning Glory (Paramount) NEW [2,518 Theaters]
Friday $3M, Estimated Weekend $9.2M, Estimated Cume $12M

6. For Colored Girls (Lionsgate) Week 2 [2,127 Theaters]
Friday $2M (-72%), Estimated Weekend $6.3M, Estimated Cume $30.5M

7. Red (Summit) Week 5 [2,878 Theaters]
Friday $1.5M, Estimated Weekend $5M, Estimated Cume $79.7M

8. Paranormal Activity 2 (Paramount) Week 4 [2,403 Theaters]
Friday $1M, Estimated Weekend $3M, Estimated Cume $82M

9. Saw 3D (Twisted Pictures/Lionsgate) Week 3 [1,976 Theaters]
Friday $950K, Estimated Weekend $2.9M, Estimated Cume $43.7M

10. Jackass 3D (MTV Films/Paramount) Week 5 [1,607 Theaters]
Friday $775K, Estimated Weekend $2.4M, Estimated Cume $114.8M

Megamind will do a lot better than $25.5 million for the weekend. It did almost $8 million on Thursday! And I'm not surprised at Skyline's numbers, as word of mouth has been poor (mostly due to the ending).