SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/29

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/29

Post by Shrykespeare »

I have to begin this column by giving a shout-out to Paramount Pictures, director Tod Williams, producer Oren Peli and the entire cast of Paranormal Activity 2 for their stellar OW this past weekend. Given the premise and the way the film was shot, parallels between PA2 and Blair Witch 2 began almost as soon as it was announced that a sequel was even in the works. So kudos to all those mentioned above for sticking to their guns, and creating a sequel that expanded on the original without merely rehashing the plot. It made over $40 million in its first three days, only $7 million shy of what Blair Witch 2 made in its ENTIRE RUN. I think we can finally put that comparison to bed.

We are but one short week away from the commencement of 2010’s holiday season, where the weekly lineup will include the biggest-budget pictures this side of August as well as the latest project from A-list directors and actors that will be vying for little gold statuettes come spring. A season that will feature the latest DreamWorks animated extravaganza, the penultimate Harry Potter film, the third Narnia film, a Tron sequel 29 years in the making, not to mention the latest vehicles for big-name stars like Denzel Washington, Russell Crowe, Johnny Depp, Robert Downey Jr., Ben Stiller and Jack Black.

But before we get to all that, we have five films to talk about, and they all have the distinction of coming out on the weekend surrounding the Halloween holiday (which is this Sunday). And, if you’ve been paying attention for the last six years, “if it’s Halloween, it must be Saw”. In 2004, what started as a critically-acclaimed low-budget project became an underground sensation. A well-written, intelligent horror film that had enough twists and turns to keep audiences guessing as well as enough gore and gruesome violence to keep horror aficionados happy.

Every year since then, the Halloween holiday has seen the release of a new Saw film, and I have watched them every one. And each chapter has managed, in its own way, through numerous flashbacks and intricate plot twists, managed to keep what amounts to being one enormous, interconnected story chugging along, while still managing to give audiences what they want: the “testing” and punishment of morally compromised individuals through the use of serial killer Jigsaw’s infernally deviously engineered devices.

However, too much of anything will eventually wear thin with audiences, and last year’s Saw VI proved beyond a shadow of doubt that the bloom was finally off the rose, grossing less than $30 million domestically, by far the lowest total of the series. I remember thinking at the time, “this needs to end.” And it looks like I’m going to get my wish. Saw 3D has been billed as the “final chapter” since the first trailer came out this summer. Now, whether TPTB actually holds to that remains to be seen. But for all intents and purposes, let’s assume that for now, this seventh chapter will indeed be the end of it.

In the last installment, Det. Mark Hoffman (Costas Mandylor), who took over Jigsaw’s (Tobin Bell) legacy after the latter’s death, narrowly escaped a trap set for him by Jigsaw’s ex-wife (Betsy Russell). The two will conclude their battle, and there will be some other interesting additions: firstly, from the trailer, it looks like at least one “test” will be made, for the first time, in full view of the public; secondly, we will FINALLY see what happened to Dr. Gordon (Cary Elwes), who we haven’t seen since he sawed off his foot in the very first film; and lastly, for the first time, the film was shot in 3D.

Seven films in seven years is an impressive run, and since Saw 3D is ostensibly the very last chapter in the saga, I would imagine that anyone who ever had a modicum of interest in the series will at least consider showing up to see how it ends. The bad news, however, is that Halloween comes on Saw 3D’s third day of release, and if history has shown anything, it’s that horror movies tend to drop off sharply in their second and third weeks, particularly when the season for horror movies is past, much the same way that Christmas movies fade rapidly into the sunset once the calendar hits January.

Saw 3D will run you $15 in the October Ultimate leagues and $17 in Box Office. I think it will have a good, healthy OW, say around $26 million, but I don’t foresee much more than $55 million in total take. That makes this property overpriced given what’s coming up, so if you didn’t take Paranormal Activity 2, I wouldn’t take Saw 3D. You’ll probably get no more than seven Top 5 points, maybe a couple of PTA, and a Rating around 6.2. It’s the end of an era, to be sure, but that still doesn’t make it worthy.

And now, a bit about this weekend’s four limited-release films:

Monsters ($5 Ult, $4 BO) – Written and directed by Gareth Edwards, Monsters is a British sci-fi film that looks, on its surface, to incorporate elements from such recent films as Cloverfield and District 9. The plot: a NASA probe crash lands in Mexico, and soon after, alien life forms spread through the region at such an alarming rate that half the country has to be quarantined. While the militaries of both countries battle to keep the alien creatures, of which some are apparently of gargantuan size, contained, American photojournalist Andrew (Scott McNairy) must help his wealthy employer’s daughter Samantha (Whitney Able) return home by any means necessary… which apparently means going through the posted “infected zone”.

Critically, Monsters has done fairly well (currently at 69% on 11/16 reviews), and I am personally looking forward to seeing it. It’s being released on only two screens this weekend, which is prime real estate for PTA. It could easily take home three or more PTA points for $5, which is a pretty good investment. Plus, its 6.7 Rating (on over 3,000 votes) won’t change much, so there’s that. I don’t believe at this time that a wide expansion is in the cards for this film, however, so don’t waste your $4 on it in Box Office.

Wild Target ($5 Ult) – British director Jonathan Lynn (My Cousin Vinny, The Whole Nine Yards) is behind this action/comedy, which features a fairly impressive cast of English actors. A remake of the French film Cible Emouvante, it follows the character of Victor Maynard (Bill Nighy), an uptight, middle-aged assassin. One day, he is hired by a gangster named Ferguson (Rupert Everett) to kill a girl named Rose (Emily Blunt) after being conned out of nearly one million pounds. However, upon meeting the winsome young woman, he finds himself not only unable to kill her, but drawn to her instead. He then takes on the role of protector, vowing to keep her safe from Ferguson’s goons. The problem is, she’s not the easiest person to protect, and when a young nincompoop named Tony (Harry Potter’s Rupert Grint) becomes an unwilling witness, Victor’s troubles increase threefold.

Wild Target will be debuting in only four theaters this weekend, and while that’s a good number for PTA, I’m not entirely convinced it will go over that well. The cast is terrific, but British comedies are not always the easiest to sell in the States. Add to that the fact that reviews have been poor (only 2/10 positive at RT), and I think that spending $5 on it may be a fool’s errand.

Strange Powers: Stephin Merritt and the Magnetic Fields ($4 Ult) – If you don’t know who Stephin Merritt is, you’re not alone. He is a prolific indie singer/songwriter, and along with his band, The Magnetic Fields, they have been producing some of the most influential and melodic music for the past twenty years. Directors Kerthy Fix and Gail O’Hara spent ten years chronicling his life, and the end result is finally ready for theaters.

I’m a huge fan of synthpop, so it’s a mystery to me how I’ve never heard of this guy or this group. However, this doc will also feature interviews with some of Merritt’s biggest fans, which include music legend Peter Gabriel, comedian Sarah Silverman and director John Woo. It will only cost you $4, but I’m a little dubious about how many people will show up to watch the story of a group of people whose claim to fame is that they are largely unknown. Plus, musical documentaries are rare sources of PTA points in the first place, so I’d pass. (If you do want it, however, keep in mind that this film comes out on Wednesday, not Friday.)

Welcome to the Rileys ($4 Ult) – This is easily the most power-packed cast of any film this week. A selection at prestigious film festivals like Sundance, Berlin and Los Angeles, this drama stars James Gandolfini and Melissa Leo as Doug and Lois Riley, a married couple who have been drifting steadily apart since the death of their daughter. On a business trip to New Orleans, Doug befriends a teenage stripper named Mallory (Kristen Stewart), and offers her $100 per day if she’ll let him stay at her house (with apparently no sex on the menu). This doesn’t go over too well with Lois, but between the three of them, they learn to heal the deep wounds that all of them have.

Welcome’s current RT score isn’t all that impressive (56% on 5/9 reviews), but director Jake Scott did take home a nomination for the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance, for what that’s worth. Fans of Stewart’s Twilight films might show up, though her tough-as-nails runaway stripper character is far more Joan Jett than Bella Swan. It is going to be released in an unknown number of theaters in New York, Los Angeles and Boston, so it, too, could be a good source of PTA. Proceed with caution, however.


My predictions for the weekend of October 29-31, 2010:

1. Saw 3D - $26 million
2. Paranormal Activity 2 - $20 million
3. Red - $10 million
4. Hereafter - $9 million
5. Jackass 3D - $8 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we officially start the home stretch for 2010. With only nine weeks left, Hollywood’s best will be coming out in droves, and seven films will be taking the opening shots next week, including: Megamind, the latest DreamWorks animated film starring Will Ferrell and Brad Pitt; Due Date, a buddy/road-trip comedy starring Robert Downey Jr. and Zach Galifianakis; For Colored Girls, Tyler Perry’s latest intense drama; 127 Hours, a true-to-life drama from Oscar-winning director Danny Boyle; Fair Game, an espionage drama starring Sean Penn and Naomi Watts; and also limited-release films Making the Boys and Guy and Madeline on a Park Bench.

Later!






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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/29

Post by Buscemi »

Actually if you count just domestic numbers, Paranormal Activity 2 is $14 million ahead of Blair Witch 2.

And despite the negative reviews, Chien liked Wild Target quite a bit. But it helps that he also liked the original.

Anyways, I'll go with...

1. Paranormal Activity 2 $18 million
2. Saw 3-D $17.5 million
3. RED $10 million
4. Jackass 3-D $8 million
5. Hereafter $7 million (word of mouth hasn't been that great, its Cinemascore was only a C+)

Postscript: I bet Banks would be first in line for Welcome To The Rileys since Kristen Stewart is a stripper. However, I imagine it's just a lot of lip-biting and not enough pole dancing.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/29

Post by numbersix »

The last Saw did so poorly, I'm not sure that even on a weekend to itself will Saw 3D do well. I'm gonna say

1. Saw 3D 19mil
2. Paranormal Activity 2 19mil
3. RED 11 mil
4. Jackass 3D 10 mil
5. Hereafter 8 mil

As for PTA, Monsters should beat Saw 3D, and I expect Strange Powers to nab some points (Magnetic Fields do have a large indie following - surely enough to fill out a single theatre). In fact, the only one that may not get anything is Wild Target.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/29

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Well, who wouldn't want to see Kristen Stewart as a stripper?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/29

Post by Shrykespeare »

Just to let everybody know, I have now created the November Regulars leagues. The themes are:

Ultimate - Monty Python
Box Office - Movies You Don't Want Remade in 3D


I have also created Round One of the Mini-Super Leagues in both Ultimate and Box Office. Basically, it's a way to bridge the gap between now and the start of next year's Super Leagues.

Round One: Nov-Jan
Round Two: Dec-Feb

In Ultimate, whoever has the highest combined final point total for both rounds wins.
In Box Office, whoever has the highest combined final dollar total for both rounds wins.

These leagues are all Public, so they are open to everyone.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/29

Post by Buscemi »

And in a strange case, Catfish is expanding to over 600 theatres this week despite having cooled off last week (only $1,200 PTA in 200 theatres). Can we expect Virginity Hit numbers here?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/29

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Saw 3D - 2808
Welcome to the Rileys - 10
Wild Target - 4
Monsters - 2
Strange Powers - 1

Tough to pick a PTA champ in this lot.


Preliminary estimates for next week:

Megamind - 3500
Due Date - 3200+
For Colored Girls - 2000
Fair Game - 35
127 Hours - 4
Guy and Madeline - 1
Making the Boys - N/A
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/29

Post by Buscemi »

I can't see Welcome To The Rileys, Wild Target or Monsters hitting over $5,000 PTA (the first two due to bad reviews, the latter due to having spent the last month on demand).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/29

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Saw 3D, $9 million
Paranormal Activity 2, $5.8M
Red, $3.4M
Jackass 3D, $3.14M (will probably pass $100M on Sunday)
Hereafter, $2.09M
Secretariat, $1.58M
The Social Network, $1.55M
Life as We Know It, $1.45M
The Town, $620K
Conviction, $550K
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/29

Post by Shrykespeare »

Sunday Estimates:

Top 5:
5 points - Saw 3D, $22.5M
4 points - Paranormal Activity 2, $16.5M
3 points - Red, $10.8M
2 points - Jackass 3D, $8.4M (now at $101.6M)
1 point - Hereafter, $6.3M

PTA:
5 points - Saw 3D, $8,013 (2,808 theaters)
4 points - Monsters, $7,000 (3 theaters)
3 points - Wild Target, $6,075 (4 theaters)
2 points - Inside Job, $6,029 (34 theaters)
1 point - Paranormal Activity 2, $5,094 (3239 theaters)

Welcome to the Rileys had a PTA of $4,500 in 10 theaters.

The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet's Nest made $915,000 in 153 theaters, for a PTA of $5,980.

No word yet on Strange Powers: Stephin Merritt and the Magnetic Fields.


User Ratings:

Saw 3D - 6.8
Monsters - 6.7
Strange Powers - 7.4
Wild Target - 6.8
Welcome to the Rileys - 7.7
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/29

Post by Shrykespeare »

Sunday Actuals

Top 5:
5 points - Saw 3D, $22.5M
4 points - Paranormal Activity 2, $16.5M
3 points - Red, $10.7M
2 points - Jackass 3D, $8.5M
1 point - Hereafter, $6.4M

PTA:
5 points - Saw 3D, $8,013 (2,808 theaters)
4 points - Monsters, $7,000 (3 theaters)
3 points - Wild Target, $6,075 (4 theaters)
2 points - Inside Job, $6,029 (34 theaters)
1 point - Paranormal Activity 2, $5,094 (3239 theaters)

Strange Powers missed the cut, as indeed did Welcome to the Rileys.
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