SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/22

[Shrykespeare]

Of all the films to break the fall (Sep-Oct) record for both opening day and opening weekend, who’da thunk it would be Jackass 3D? Eight years since the MTV series ended its run, a bunch of overgrown teenagers performing dangerous and disgusting tricks commanded a $50 million OW this past weekend, more than double the still-respectable debut of Red, which came in with over $22 million. This is especially surprising considering the lull the box office returns have been in, with more than half this fall’s releases coming in under (or, in some cases, WELL under) predicted outputs. There are only two weeks before the holiday season officially begins, so the question that must be asked is: can this past weekend’s dramatic upswing continue?

The answer to that question will be an interesting one, given that there is only one new film coming out this week. Well, okay, you might say one-and-a-half, since this past weekend’s PTA champ, Clint Eastwood’s Hereafter, will be expanding from six theaters to over 2,200. But I’m going to proceed with caution on just how well it will do this weekend. I assumed last year that the triumvirate of Eastwood, Matt Damon and Morgan Freeman would translate to a big OW for Invictus based on name recognition alone. However, that was not to be: it managed only $8.6 million, well behind front runners The Princess and the Frog and The Blind Side. It limped to only $37 million domestically, and though mostly critically-acclaimed, it was viewed as a disappointment.

Hereafter will be expanding to roughly the same number of theaters that Invictus did, and it is equally well-acclaimed and it also stars Matt Damon. The difference is, it’s coming out a full month earlier, where competition is not quite as fierce. All the same, I’ll predict only a slightly better opening for Hereafter, at around $13 million, which will probably not be able to eclipse Red’s second week, given the tiny drops that most movies have been subjected to lately. But then, if you didn’t take Hereafter last week, it’s too late to take it now, so I won’t waste any more time on it.

The reason, as I’m sure most of you know, that horror movies are so prevalent up and down the yearly list of theatrical releases is that they tend to be made for comparatively little money compared to other genres. They usually showcase the acting “talents” of little-known actors and actresses, and it takes very little for them to make their money back. But a little movie came out last year and proved this point by grossing (internationally) nearly 13,000 times what it cost to make.

In 2007, first-time director Oren Peli, with a budget of $15,000, a hand-held camera, and two completely unknown actors in the central roles, shot a film called Paranormal Activity in Peli’s own San Diego home. It was screened at the 2007 Screamfest Horror Film Festival, where it impressed an assistant at the Creative Arts Agency, Kirill Baru. Baru vigorously attempted to get a distributor for this tiny film, and eventually, a deal was struck between Peli, Miramax executive Jason Blum, and Paramount Pictures to distribute the film, as is, in all its primitive glory. And even though it was rejected by Sundance, Peli made it his mission to get news of Paranormal Activity on people’s lips.

Using a viral Internet campaign and strong word of mouth, Paranormal Activity debuted on twelve screens on September 25 of last year. And it expanded. And grew. And expanded. And grew. By its fifth weekend, it was being shown in nearly 2,000 theaters and it was the #1 film in America, besting even the latest installment of the flagging Saw series. By the time it was done, it had grossed well over $100 million domestically, and very near $200 million internationally. When you consider, once again, that this film was made for only $15,000, you have to truly admire what Peli was able to accomplish.

Of course, Paranormal Activity’s achievement was not exactly a singular event. In 1999, a movie called The Blair Witch Project was able to put up similar numbers. It, too, was made on a shoestring budget, was shot on a hand-held camera, and raked in close to $250 million internationally. Hopes were high for that film’s sequel, Book of Shadows, and needless to say, the magic was gone. Despite the vastly superior budget ($15 million), it was critically lambasted and made less than $50 million domestically. Many blame the filmmakers for straying too far from the spirit of the original, though others would say that something as unique as the original Blair Witch had an impossible task in making a sequel work in the first place. A concept, after all, can only be unique once.

So when it was learned that the towering success of Paranormal Activity was enough to warrant a sequel, comparisons between Paranormal Activity 2 and Blair Witch 2 were inevitable. And why not? The budget has increased a hundredfold (to about $3 million, presumably not including advertising), and it looks to be telling a very similar story. Hopefully director Tod Williams and Peli (who is now co-producing) will be able to avoid the pitfalls that sank Blair Witch 2.

And oh, yeah, about the story. The story involved a young couple named Micah and Katie (which were also the actors’ real names), who just recently moved into a two-story house in San Diego. Katie is convinced that she has been haunted by unseen spirits since youth, and Micah, using an assortment of video cameras, sets out to either prove or disprove Katie’s imaginings. Of course, it turns out that Katie’s fears are very real: while they sleep, we see doors move, bedsheets rustle, and lights flicker on and off. It culminates with Katie being dragged down the hallway screaming, and the unseen demon apparently possessing Katie’s body and killing Micah.

I’ve always been of the opinion that subtle things can scare far more easily than menaces that are right in your face. The baddie that you can’t see makes your skin crawl far more than a knife-wielding, mask-wearing psychopath chasing its latest victim down darkened corridors. And this is why Paranormal Activity was simply one of the scariest movies I’d ever seen. Will PA2 be as scary? Well, it won’t be as unique, but I’d like to think so. The plot: it’s now Katie’s relatives that are being haunted, not only by Katie’s demon but by Katie herself. Said relatives must find a way to counter the supernatural goings-on before they take Katie’s baby nephew Hunter.

There are no reviews in the can that I can access to see if any of the original PA’s magic was successfully captured in PA2. I’m just going to go on a wing and a prayer and hope that the sequel is able to earn a much larger percentage of its original than the disastrous Blair Witch 2. It’s going to be debuting in nearly 3,000 theaters, roughly the same number as Jackass 3D. And while I certainly don’t think PA2 is going to come close to that film’s amazing numbers, I do think it will do quite well.

Millions of Americans loved the first Paranormal Activity, and I’m sure most of them will be curious enough about the sequel to show up on opening weekend. In all, I predict $38 million in its first three days, on its way to nine or ten Top 5 points, five PTA, a Rating in the 6’s or 7’s, and about $75 million. That’s my best guess: it could easily tank. It’s certainly a risk for $17 in the October Ultimate leagues ($18 in Box Office), but it could easily be worth it given that the only major film coming next week is the seventh (and, God willing, final) Saw film. You could also reason that Tangled, the next potential cash cow for Disney, is an even better pick for the same amount of money.

Final note: for those not already aware, there was supposed to be one limited-release film this week called The Company Men, but that film was just this past week moved to mid-December.

My predictions for the weekend of October 22-24, 2010:

1. Paranormal Activity 2 - $38 million
2. Jackass 3D - $23 million
3. Red - $14 million
4. Hereafter - $13 million
5. The Social Network - $8 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, five new films hit theaters just in time for Halloween, including: Saw 3D, the seventh and allegedly final chapter of the series, this time in gloriously gory 3D; as well as limited releases Monsters, Welcome to the Rileys, Wild Target and Strange Powers: Stephin Merritt and the Magnetic Fields.

Later!

[numbersix]

The major difference between Blair Witch 2 and PA 2 is that BW2 dropped the found-footage style of the original, thus pissing off its fanbase. PA2 is almost the opposite, almost recreating the originals scary moments (slamming doors, being dragged by unseen force, etc). I'm not hearing a lot of buzz about this, but considering there's no competition it should still have an impressive opening and then a swift decline aftter Halloween.

As for Hereafter, intial tracking is poor, and I just feel Clint and ghost stories will be a poor mix for the mainstream.

I'll say...

PA2: 25 mil
Jackass 3D: 21 mil
Red: 12 mil
Hereafter: 9 mil
The Social Network: 7 mil

PTA champs will be Jackass and PA2, with perhaps points for Inside Job, Conviction (if it doesn't go too wide), Red and Hereafter

[Buscemi]

1. Paranormal Activity 2 $23 million
2. Jackass 3-D $17 million
3. RED $13 million
4. Hereafter $11 million (it will probably open similar to Green Zone)
5. The Social Network $7 million

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I would think PA2 would do just fine, but I haven't seen much marketing for it. There's only the teaser trailer (from back in June) still playing in theaters, and I've only seen 2 or 3 commercials for it. I hope Paramount is not getting lazy and hoping title alone will bring people in. But I'll guess $25-$28M OW?

And I think Hereafter is DOA.

PA2 should have two weekends on top before the big movies come in and kick everyone's asses.

[Shrykespeare]

I doubt Paramount is getting lazy. I'm betting there will be a ton of advertising this week.

[transformers2]

Shryke, I think you are really highballing Paranormal Activity. A lot of people hated the original, I really don't see it doing nearly that well. I predict it will do around 18 mil.

[Brockster]

Early tracking has PA2 at 26M and Hereafter at 15M.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Shryke, I think you are really highballing Paranormal Activity. A lot of people hated the original, I really don't see it doing nearly that well. I predict it will do around 18 mil.

Well, a $100M gross and an 82% on RT says most people didn't hate it. And from what I've seen, the people who didn't like it were just simply let down - it was hyped up as basically the scariest thing EVER that when they finally saw it, it couldn't possibly live up to those expectations. I would say a great majority of people who saw it before it hit #1 and was on the cover of Entertainment Weekly really liked it.

[silversurfer19]

To an extent I agree with you banks, we were lead to believe it was a brilliant horror movie, so we were always going to be let down a little. However, I think a fair portion of those who saw it, myself included, just were not very impressed by the movie at all (I found it poorly acted, occasionally gimmicky and boring for the most part), expectations or not. It would be this group who will not go see the sequel. Having said that, there are plenty of fans who did enjoy the original who will be coming in droves to see the second, and I guess most of it's takings will be over its OW as opposed to the word of mouth success of the first one. It will be very frontloaded over its opening two weekends, possibly bringing in $70m+ over that time, but after that i reckon it will quickly disappear.

[Buscemi]

Here's how I see it:

$11 million Friday
$7.5 million Saturday
$4.5 million Sunday

[Shrykespeare]

PA2 has broken the record for dollars earned for midnight screenings for an R-rated movie. It grossed $6.3M, shattering the record of $4.6M set by Watchmen. Hollywood Insider says, "Paramount has been heavily promoting Paranormal Activity 2 as a 'midnight movie' and this early turnout practically ensures that the sequel will surpass its predecessor’s wide-release opening of $21.1 million."

And here is how BOM's Friday Estimates pan out:

Paranormal Activity 2, $20.1M
Jackass 3D, $7.6M
Red, $4.5M
Hereafter, $4.1M
The Social Network, $2.3M
Life as We Know It, $2M
Secretariat, $2M

So we'll see if I'm still "highballing" PA2, but I'm starting to feel pretty good about my prediction. If anything, I might have "highballed" my prediction for Jackass 3D's second week, which looks like it won't even make $20M.

[transformers2]

Yeah I blew it on Paranormal pretty bad.

[thswrestler160]

Actually shryke I'd say your pretty close on all of em. If any thing your just a little low on PA2

[Shrykespeare]

Actually shryke I'd say your pretty close on all of em. If any thing your just a little low on PA2

Which is even more amusing when you consider how much higher I was than everyone else!

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Estimates

Top 5:
5 points - Paranormal Activity 2, $41.5M
4 points - Jackass 3D, $21.6M
3 points - Red, $15M
2 points - Hereafter, $12M
1 point - The Social Network, $7.3M

Wow. Sometimes I get it very wrong, but this week, I was dead on.

PTA:
5 points - Paranmoral Activity 2, $12,904
4 points - Inside Job, $7,083
3 points - Jackass 3D, $6,943
2 points - Hereafter, $5,504
1 point - Conviction, $5,455

This will probably change a little.