SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/15

[Shrykespeare]

I knew this past weekend’s films were going to open fairly weak, but I certainly didn’t anticipate The Social Network suffering only a 30% drop and winning for the second straight weekend. I guess that positive word-of-mouth and reviews do count for something on their face(book). (Grin.) But now we are getting into the second half of October, there will be more titles with a greater degree of potential, leading us straight into the holiday season, where blockbusters aplenty lie in wait (at least three, with possibly as many as six). Should be interesting.

Thankfully, the next few weeks won’t feature the logjam of films that this past weekend did, but that only means that you have to consider them even harder. In the grand scheme of the October-December season, it’s undeniably easy to ignore everything October has to offer and load up on the heavy hitters of November and December. But remember, Top 5 and PTA points count exactly the same in the weak months as well. Who knows, The Social Network could easily pull in as many Top 5 points as Megamind will, even if it only makes a fraction of the box office.

In April of this year, an attempt was made to translate the Vertigo comic series The Losers to the big screen. Though it was a fun movie, it wasn’t exactly riddled with household names, and it failed to make any kind of splash at all ($9 million OW, $23 million overall). Six months later, Red will attempt to succeed where The Losers, er, lost. They’ve got just about every factor going for it: a larger release platform (over 3,000 theaters), a better release date, and more A-list actors in its cast than you can shake the proverbial stick at.

For those of you who haven’t seen the trailer, “Red” is an acronym for “Retired, Extremely Dangerous”. Though this is truly an ensemble cast, the central character would seem to be Frank Moses (Bruce Willis), a former Black Ops CIA agent who is now retired and living an idyllic life in a quiet neighborhood… that is, until a high-tech hit squad shows up at his door with every intent on “retiring” him for good.

His one contact is Sarah (Mary-Louise Parker), a civilian with whom Frank has struck up a friendship. However, with his identity compromised, he snatches Sarah away from her job in order to protect her. He figures that the best way to keep Sarah – and himself – alive is to reassemble his old team, who all used to be among the best the CIA had to offer way back when, including Joe (Morgan Freeman), Victoria (Helen Mirren), and the more-than-slightly addled Marvin (John Malkovitch).

But the stellar cast doesn’t end there. You also have Ernest Borgnine (in his 90s and still acting), Richard Dreyfuss, Brian Cox, Karl Urban, Rebecca Pidgeon, and Julian McMahon supporting a dazzling array of talent with over a century of acting experience between them. And it is this cast, probably far more than the story, that will be drawing moviegoers in fairly decent numbers.

Red's early reviews have been very promising (8/10 positive on RT), and its current User Rating is also very encouraging (7.7 on just over 200 votes). It’s rated PG-13 for “intense action sequences and brief strong language”, and it seems to be the only pure action movie available until Unstoppable one month down the line, so there’s that.

The thing is, Red isn’t cheap, either. It’s $16 in the October Ultimate leagues and $17 in the Box Office, which means that for it to be worth it (in my eyes, anyway), it would have to pull in at least eight Top 5 points, a couple of PTA, and $65 million. But I think that could happen. It should easily win the weekend (I’m predicting $22 million), and with only Paranormal Activity 2 and the wide release of Hereafter coming next week, it should hold on for more points next week. It may not give you as much bang for your buck as titles like Megamind or Harry Potter, but then, you can only fit so many big names like that on your roster. This might be a worthy #3 or #4 pick, but it’s by no means a sure thing.

The reality show Jackass only ran for three years (2000-02), but it apparently developed an incredible cult following. The premise was fairly simple: actor Johnny Knoxville and his more-balls-than-brains buddies would attempt a variety of difficult, dangerous, and sometimes disgusting array of stunts. They would film these stunts in numerous locations, often with hastily-assembled props. Not every stunt was successful, and sometimes the guy performing the stunt would sustain a serious injury. But there’s something sadistically entertaining about watching idiots hurt themselves, and the small screen wasn’t enough to contain them.

The original Jackass movie came out right after the TV show stopped, and it opened very respectably in October 2002 with a $22.7 million OW and $64.3 million overall. In 2006, Jackass Number Two improved on those numbers, pulling in $29 million in its OW and almost $73 million overall. Four years hence, Jackass 3D slams head-first into theaters, attempting to take buffoonery to the next level, the “next level” being… 3D.

Movies these days being are shot in or converted to 3D with alarming regularity, but I have to admit, this one makes little sense to me. But then, I’ve never been a fan of the show in general or Knoxville in particular, so what do I know? I can really only see the diehard Jackass fans being willing to shell out the extra few bucks for the 3D aspect, but I could be way off base.

Eight years after the fact, I have a sneaking suspicion that the whole Jackass concept is past its prime. Oh, there will always be goofballs who are willing to perform death-defying acts of idiocy, and these guys have raised that to practically an art form. But even with the 3D aspect, I don’t think Jackass 3D will outshine its predecessors. It is only going to shown in about 2,500 theaters, so I will predict a mere $17 million opening and about $48 million overall, along with six Top 5 points, three or four PTA, and a Rating in the low-to-mid 6’s. For $14 in Ultimate ($16 in Box Office), I have to believe that there are much better choices all over the map.

Two years ago, Clint Eastwood’s swan song as an actor came in the form of Gran Torino. It was released in only a handful of theaters, and it was a PTA monster for nearly a month before going wide and exploding at the box office. His most recent directorial effort, Invictus, didn’t have the benefit of a limited release, and it underwhelmed with only $37 million in total take despite the Oscar-nominated efforts of Matt Damon and Morgan Freeman.

This week will see the release of Eastwood’s latest film, called Hereafter, in only six theaters. But unlike Gran Torino, it only has the one week to warm up before expanding wide next week. But Eastwood being what he is, one of the most prolific and versatile directors working today, this should win the PTA crown by a country mile this weekend. What it does after that, however, is anybody’s guess. Some have classified Hereafter as a “supernatural thriller”, a genre Eastwood has never tackled before. However, the reviews I’ve read more accurately describe it as a “contemplative, slow-paced, spiritual” collection of stories, and it definitely attempts to touch moviegoers on a deeply personal, emotional level.

Perhaps the most widely-anticipated segment features Matt Damon as George Lonegan, a psychic with the ability to communicate with dead souls. Though he once embraced his gift, he now shuns it, and attempts to lead a quiet, normal life, even falling for a foreign girl named Melanie (Bryce Dallas Howard). The second segment centers on a French TV journalist named Marie LeLay (Cecile de France), who is vacationing in the tropics when the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami hits the place, causing her to nearly drown but also have a near-death experience. The third segment depicts Londoner twin brothers Marcus and Jason (George and Frankie McLaren, making their film debut) who must hide their mother’s drug and alcohol addictions in order to avoid institutional social care. Though the three story lines are separate, I am reasonably certain that they will all interconnect in some way or another by the end. From the reviews I’ve read, the acting performances are very (and purposefully) understated, but also very well done, which is typical when Eastwood is directing.

Hereafter costs $14 in the Ultimate leagues. For this, you can expect probably no fewer than eight PTA points as well as an absolutely stellar Rating (currently at 9.1 with over 300 votes). But though Eastwood movies are critical darlings, they tend to not be bank-breakers when Clint is not in front of the camera as well. I’m not entirely certain how wide Hereafter will go next week, but I would be surprised if it managed more than four or five Top 5 points. $40 million is probably the most I can see this film earning, which is why it is priced much more economically ($7) in Box Office. So this is a tough call. $14 is a lot to pay for excellence in only two of four categories, so it would certainly be understandable if you passed on this one.

This week’s final film is Conviction, a based-on-true-events story from Fox Searchlight starring two-time Oscar-winner Hilary Swank as Betty Anne Waters, a single mom who dedicated nearly two decades of her life to getting her brother Kenny (Sam Rockwell) out of prison, absolutely convinced that he was wrongfully imprisoned on a charge of murder. Determined to right this miscarriage of justice, she earned her GED, her bachelor’s degree, and a law degree from Roger Williams University in Rhode Island, all for that one sole purpose. Wow, that’s dedication.

Actor/director Tony Goldwyn is behind the camera for this drama (you may also remember former projects like A Walk on the Moon and Someone Like You…), which also stars Minnie Driver, Melissa Leo and Juliette Lewis. It, too, has also gotten very good reviews (5/6 on RT, 7.6 Rating on IMDb), and it is being shown on ten screens this weekend. I think it could easily come in at #2 behind Hereafter in PTA. However, what it does in its second and third weeks will determine whether it’s worth its $7 price tag. There are only two movies coming next week, those being Paranormal Activity 2 (wide) and The Company Men (limited), so the chances for it hanging on for additional points are better than average, unless it expands to triple-digit numbers.


My predictions for the weekend of October 15-17, 2010:

1. Red - $22 million
2. Jackass 3D - $17 million
3. The Social Network - $11 million
4. Secretariat - $9 million
5. Life As We Know It - $7 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, last year’s horror phenomenon is back for a second chapter in Paranormal Activity 2, hoping to capture the viral magic of the original. There is also a film called The Company Men, a drama starring Ben Affleck, Kevin Costner, Tommy Lee Jones and Chris Cooper.

Later!

[Buscemi]

I think Jackass 3-D will hit $30 million opening weekend. People still go see these movies and Johnny Knoxville and the gang are smart not to dilute the product. With a four-year wait, audiences will be expecting the biggest one of all (unlike with something like Step Up 3-D, which was a remake of the first two in 3-D).

[transformers2]

I agree with Boosh, Jackass still has appeal and the fans of it know it is going to the biggest and craziest of them all. Jackass 3-D will win the weekend and make in the 25-30 Mill range. It still has a huge appeal and the use of 3-D only adds to the bankibilty of Jackass.

Red should do pretty well and Shryke your guess of 22 mil sounds accurate.

[thswrestler160]

I dont really think that the 2500 count is going to hurt jackass, especially if the comercials tell the truth cuz at the end of some of them it says "only in 3d" and even if isn't true I expect its 3d earn % to be a bit on the higher side. 25+ should b well withing range.

[Buscemi]

Midnight sneaks will also help it.

[numbersix]

Tracking has Jackass opening in the early 30s/high 20s, but like Shryke I just don't see it. It feels a little too late for another Jackass film. It just feels over.

Red is tracking a little low (mid-to-high teens at the moment). Not sure what to make of that.

As for the limiteds, there's no doubt Hereafter will win this weekend. Jackass should get some points, and Conviction may nab 1 or 2 if its lucky. Expect Inside Job to get some more and maybe Nowhere Boy.

Jackass 3d: 21 mil
Red: 18 mil
The Social Network: 9 mil
Secretariat: 8 mil
Life As We Know It: 7 mil

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I don't see the appeal of Red. I don't think it'll do over $15M at best, but what do I know?

Jackass should do $25M easily, depending on how frontloaded it is. Social Network should hold well again, as older people start to get interested in it.

[thswrestler160]

well you wont have to worry about that low theater count for jackass.

jackass 3081
red 3255
conviction 11
hereafter 6

inside job also stays in 2 so itll probably grab a few more pta

[silversurfer19]

Would I be correct in guessing they will be playing Jackass in numerous 2D cinemas as well now then as not all of those will be 3D capable surely? Hereafter is a lock for top spot in PTA, and I guess Inside Job will hold no.2 spot.

[Buscemi]

Some theatres will be running it flat.

[Buscemi]

Early crowd reports: Jackass 3-D will be an easy Number 1. RED is underperforming while I Want Your Money looks the disaster we all figured it would be (this should have just aired on Fox News and faded into obscurity).

[Buscemi]

Early Opener Reports:

Jackass 3-D $20 million Friday, $40 million weekend
RED $8.5 million, $25 million weekend

[Shrykespeare]

BOM Friday estimates

Jackass 3D, $21.8M (holy shit)
Red, $7.2M
The Social Network, $3.325M
Life As We Know It, $3.065M
Secretariat, $2.844M
The Town, $1.235M
Legend of the Guardians, $1.045M
My Soul to Take, $1M
Easy A, $855K (now over $50 million!!)
Wall Street 2, $715K

Hereafter made $58K in 6 theaters.
Conviction made $29K in 11 theaters.

Based on little info, I predict the PTA points will go like this:

5 points - Hereafter (around $25K)
4 points - Jackass 3D (around $18K)
3 points - Inside Job (around $9K)
2 points - Conviction (around $7K)
1 point - Red (around $6K)

Inside Job stayed at 2 locations, so it's still primed for more PTA. Meanwhile, both Nowhere Boy (215) and Stone (41) have expanded, so there will likely be no more PTA from them. Something else could sneak in as well, of course, like Waiting For Superman.

[Shrykespeare]

BOM Sunday Estimates

Top 5:
5 points - Jackass 3D, $50M (Wow. Just.... wow)
4 points - Red, $22.5M
3 points - The Social Network, $11M (-29%)
2 points - Secretariat, $9.5M (-25%)
1 point - Life As We Know It, $9.2M (-37%)

So minute drops for the entire Top 10 (except My Soul to Take), and a record setting weekend for a Sep-Oct release for Jackass 3D, and this following weeks of lackluster numbers. Is this an aberration or a trend, though?

PTA:
5 points - Hereafter, $38,500
4 points - Jackass 3D, $16,228
3 points - Conviction, $10,000
2 points - Red, $6,912
1 point - Stone, $5,585

No word on Inside Job yet.

User Ratings:
Red - 7.6
Jackass 3D - 7.5 (?!)
Herafter - 8.9
Conviction - 7.0

Can't remember a week where all the debuts had such impressive numbers top to bottom.

[numbersix]

BOM has Inside Job's PTA at 9030, meaning it'll get 2 more points this weekend, and Stone gets nowt