SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/8

[silversurfer19]

BOM has listed IKOAFS as playing in 742 locations this weekend, that as good as dead both PTA and Box Office wise.

Of note, the PTA movies this weekend are opening as follows:

Inside Job - 2
Tamara Drewe - 4
Nowhere Boy - 4
Stone - 6

It's gonna be tight this weekend, no one which really stands out. I'd probably go with Inside Man just winning over Stone though.

[Buscemi]

It's Inside Job.

Meanwhile, Buried's wide run has been canceled due to a weak expansion last week. Instead, it only went up to 92 theatres.

And for next week, the pro-Republican documentary I Want Your Money is getting a surprising 500 theatres (I figured it would be a regional release in a few Southern markets). I guess Freestyle doesn't realize that Republicans never go to see these types of movies (the highest grossing pro-Republican documentary was Expelled with $7 million and that got way more advertising than this has). I'm guessing $150,000 to $250,000 for the weekend and gone by the election.

[silversurfer19]

Dammit, I was hoping for a Buried expansion to make my $6 splash on it in BO leagues worth it. That was a waste of virtual cash.

And thanks for noticing my mistakes once again boosh, at least i know none of my slip of the tongues will ever go missed...

[Buscemi]

So far, Secretariat is underperforming and no film is expected to hit $20 million for the holiday weekend. However, Secretariat seems more like a Saturday and Sunday movie so it will probably prevail.

[silversurfer19]

Slightly off topic but an interesting development in the game regarding the movie which will probably make the most money in this season, as Warner Bros. have confirmed Harry Potter 7 won't be screened in 3D as it hasn't been finished in time. Although it will still make a shit load as per usual, a big chunk of 3D money will have been lost here. I suppose that is what you get if you try to add 3D post production rather than include it from inception.

[Buscemi]

I'm actually glad that it will be released 2-D only. The conversion process is a major ripoff (it has only worked on Piranha so far and that's only because it was always intended for 3-D but the director hated working with the 3-D cameras).

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I wished they would've just filmed it in 3D, but I'm glad they didn't release a shitty conversion job.

[Buscemi]

Friday Numbers:

1. Life As We Know It (Warner Bros) NEW [3,150 Theaters]
Friday $5M, Estimated Weekend $15M

2. The Social Network (Sony) Week 2 [2,771 Theaters]
Friday $4.5M (-43%), Estimated Weekend $15M, Estimated Cume $45.4M

3. Secretariat (Disney) NEW [3,072 Theaters]
Friday $4.2M, Estimated Weekend $14.5M

4. My Soul To Take (Rogue Pictures/Universal) NEW [2,572 Theaters]
Friday $2.5M, Estimated Weekend $7M

5. Legends of the Guardian: The Owls (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,225 Theaters]
Friday $1.8M, Estimated Weekend $6.8M, Estimated Cume $39.3M

6. The Town (Warner Bros) Week 4 [2,720 theaters]
Friday $1.8M, Estimated weekend $6M, Estimated Cume $73.4M

7. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (Fox) Week 3 [2,829 Theaters]
Friday $1.4M, Estimated Weekend $4.8M, Estimated Cume $43.8M

8. Easy A (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 4 [2,847 Theaters]
Friday $1.2M, Estimated Weekend $4M, Estimated Cume $47.9M

9. You Again (Disney) Week 3 [2,332 Theaters]
Friday $750K, Estimated Weekend $2.5M, Estimated Cume $20.8M

10. Case 39 (Paramount Vantage) Week 2 [2,212 Theaters]
Friday $750K (-58%), Estimated Weekend $2.4M, Estimated Cume $9.4M

I'm expecting Secretariat to make a Saturday jump and have a small Sunday drop to take the top spot. It's just one of those movies. Meanwhile, it looks like It's Kind Of A Funny Story will open to under $2 million. And Let Me In looks a huge dropper (once again due to the poor marketing). Expect it to be a huge hit on DVD (where Anchor Bay will be handling it rather than Relativity, due to an already-made DVD deal).

[Shrykespeare]

BOM Friday Estimates

Life As We Know It, $5.25M
The Social Network, $4.9M
Secretariat, $4.06M
My Soul to Take, $2.662M
The Town, $1.86M
Legend of the Guardians, $1.775M
Wall Street 2, $1.38M
Easy A, $1.35M
Case 39, $810K
Let Me In, $760K


I think my Top 5 predictions are going to be very close, with the exception of My Soul to Take. Honestly thought it would do better.

[Donte77]

Inside Job - 2

I hope so, I took it on a few slates hoping for a low count. I have been very off on PTA picks this month. Picked Buried and Jack Goes Boating and avoided Woody Allen and that damned dog movie. LOL Urghhh.

[numbersix]

In fairness most of us thought Woody's new movie wouldn't do so well either. His poorly reviewed films tend not to do well, even in PTA (like Whatever Works). I guess the impressive cast and the very limited theatre run is making it do well. Dammit.

[Shrykespeare]

My predictions:

1. Life As We Know It - $16 million
2. The Social Network - $14 million
3. Secretariat - $12 million
4. My Soul to Take - $10 million
5. Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole - $7 million


BOM Sunday estimates:

Top 5
5 points - The Social Network, $15.5 million
4 points - Life as We Know It, $14.6 million
3 points - Secretariat, $12.6 million
2 points - Legend of the Guardians, $7 million
1 point - My Soul to Take, $6.9 million

So I was pretty close on four of the five, only missing on My Soul to Take.

PTA
5 points - Inside Job, 21000
4 points - Nowhere Boy, 14025
3 points - Stone, 12167
2 points - Waiting for Superman, $6165
1 point - The Social Network, $5594
Tamara Drewe, $4825
Life as We Know It, $4646
Secretariat, $4102

It's Kind of a Funny Story made just over $2 million in 742 theaters, for a PTA of $2712. And looks like several of us called it correctly. Bravo for Inside Job. And that is now TWELVE points for Superman.

User Ratings (RT scores)
Stone - 8.2 (44%, 14/32) (?!)
Inside Job - 7.8 (90%, 26/29)
It's Kind of a Funny Story - 7.3 (56%, 44/79)
Secretariat - 7.2 (65%, 63/97)
Nowhere Boy - 7.0 (82%, 62/76)
Tamara Drewe - 6.8 (72%, 31/43)
My Soul to Take - 5.7 (8%, 2/26)
Life as We Know It - 4.8 (29%, 31/106)

[Buscemi]

Stone was a hit at Toronto. New York and Los Angeles critics just didn't think the same. That may explain why the IMDb score is high and the Rotten Tomatoes score isn't.

[Chienfantome]

I am soooooooooo disappointed by Tamara Drewe's score...
I had it on a bunch of slates, damn ! I can't believe such a good film opening in so few theaters make such low numbers !
Come on America !!

[Buscemi]

As I said, basic comic book adaptations don't appeal to the art crowd. It needs to be underground to succeed (something from Daniel Clowes, R. Crumb or the late Harvey Pekar).