SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

[Buscemi]

I'm thinking Relativity set it up to flop. They bought Overture for their distribution arm but obviously showed no interest in giving their remaining films a decent release (Jack Goes Boating is also doing middling business in limited release due to a weak marketing campaign). Instead, they chose to put their marketing money on movies they financed or picked up for the major studios (such as Catfish and The Social Network). I knew something was up when Relativity decided not to delay Let Me In to November or in 2011 to improve marketing (probably because Relativity wanted to promote Skyline, yet another movie they financed but will not distribute).

Now expect Relativity to dump Stone so they can promote My Soul To Take (a Universal release). I seriously don't know if Relativity wants to make money or suck up to the majors.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates (BOM):

The Social Network, $8M
Wall Street 2, $3.25M
The Town, $3.13M
Legend of the Guardians, $2.6M
Easy A, $2.275M
Let Me In, $1.915M
Case 39, $1.84M
You Again, $1.685M
Devil, $1.14M
Resident Evil 4, $800K

Looks like Social Network may be the only one over $10M. It may crack $20M, but I doubt it.

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Estimates

Top 5:
5 points - The Social Network, $23M
4 points - Legend of the Guardians, $10.9M (down only 32.6%, typical of family animated films)
3 points - Wall Street 2, $10.1M
2 points - The Town, $10M
1 point - Easy A, $7M
Case 39, $5.4M
Let Me In, $5.3M

PTA (AUG & SEP leagues)
5 points - Waiting For Superman
4 points - The Social Network
3 points - You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger
2 points - Catfish
1 point - Never Let Me Go

PTA (OCT leagues)
5 points - The Social Network, 8300
4 points - Let Me In, 2624
3 points - Freakonomics, 1941

No word yet on Douchebag. Damn, I picked Freakonomics for a couple of my Oct leagues. Still, 3 PTA (or possibly 2) for $3 isn't bad, I guess.


User Ratings:
The Social Network - 8.6 (3214 votes) (WOW)
Let Me In - 6.7 (1242 votes)
Freakonomics - 5.9 (144 votes)
Douchebag - 7.3 (48 votes)

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Actuals:

The points are indeed as outlined above, with one change:

PTA (Oct leagues)
5 points - The Social Network, 8100
4 points - Douchebag, 2966
3 points - Let Me In, 2548
2 points - Frekonomics, 1595