SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

When your thing is predicting, it’s always embarrassing when you miss the mark by a wide margin. I am quite surprised that Legend of the Guardians, which is frankly one of the greatest feats of 3D I have ever seen, managed only $16 million this past weekend, barely half of what I prognosticated. I guess it just goes to prove that it doesn’t matter how visually awesome a film is; without a compelling story, neither kids nor adults will show up for it. Meanwhile, kudos to Wall Street 2 for winning the weekend, as well as to Waiting for “Superman” and You Will Meet a Talk Dark Stranger for going 1-2 in the PTA race.

This coming weekend is notable for two reasons: first off, it starts the October-December season. Remember, as always, that PTA only factors releases in the current league, which means that the four films being released this weekend are guaranteed to earn between two and five PTA points; and secondly, this is Week One of the final round of the 2010 Super League tournaments. Those of you who are participating and are still alive following the most recent cut, choose your slates wisely. If you survive the October and November cuts, this is the season whose victors will be crowned champions.

Ahh, October. The temperatures are dropping, the leaves are turning to brown, and the films that showcase style over substance are slowly being replaced by films that showcase the exact opposite. This is the time of year where we expect more from our movies: better acting, better stories, less gratuitous wastrie. This is Oscar season. Welcome all.

Are you one of the half-billion people who has reportedly used the social networking site Facebook? I will confess that I am, though I don’t use it as vigorously as most others do. Through Facebook, I have been able to find and maintain contact with many old friends that I had previously lost touch with. It’s also good for chatting, posting photos, you name it. It may be the single most important and influential website since the creation of Google. But I digress.

Have you ever wondered just how Facebook was created? Author Ben Mezrich penned a book last year, The Accidental Billionaires, that focused on just how it came about. Sony/Columbia has brought in multi-Emmy-Award-winning screenwriter Aaron Sorkin to develop a script from said book, Oscar-nominated director David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) to direct, and Oscar-winning actor Kevin Spacey to co-produce the film (with Sorkin).

The final result is called, aptly enough, The Social Network, and to say that early word on the film has been positive is a gross understatement, but I’ll get to that in a sec. The main character is Mark Zuckerberg (Jesse Eisenberg), who we see as a Harvard geek who believes that getting into the prestigious university’s elite social circles are the key to a happy future. Then, quite by accident, he finds a way to basically “take the entire college experience and put it online”, and Facebook is born. Oh, not without some growing pains, of course. With great success comes great controversy, and what follows may seem like a typical story of what happens when something unprecedented is created: numerous factions claim credit, and years are spent in courts determining who gets the biggest piece of the pie. I know I’m hugely oversimplifying the plot, given what I’m about to say, but that’s what I’ve taken away from the few reviews I’ve read.

And about those reviews… they have ALL been positive. RT has seventeen reviews in the can for The Social Network, including six from “Top Critics”, and they have all given it a thumbs-up. They praise Eisenberg’s performance as Zuckerberg, calling it “Oscar-worthy”; Eisenberg ditches his Michael Cera-knockoff stereotype, that of the over-privileged wiseass, in favor of a portrayal as a smug, arrogant, undeniably brilliant man who helped create the widest-reaching form of communication since the telephone. The Social Network is all about Zuckerberg (although the supporting cast, which includes Andrew Garfield, Max Minghella and Justin Timberlake, has also gotten rave reviews).

Despite the multitude of kudos, both those that have already been attached to The Social Network as well as those that are going to be attached in coming months, I have great reservations about recommending this film for your slates, and here’s why: I have to believe that what the layman knows – or has been led to believe – about this film will leave a unpalatably dry taste in their mouths. You and I know that it may indeed be a compelling, well-written, well-acted story, another feather in Fincher’s cap. But think if it this way: if there were a fantastically dramatic story about how Xbox was created, do you think that the millions of kids who burn whole weekends playing on it would care one way or another?

My point is, this is not a film aimed at youngsters, and I have to believe that youngsters make up the lion’s share of the half-billion people that use Facebook the most. I also have to believe that the grown-ups that DON’T use Facebook will not flock to this movie either. Put that together with a run-time of just over two hours and a release platform of only 2,700 theaters, and I can only envision an OW draw of around $17 million.

The Social Network may indeed be the first bona fide Oscar movie of the season, but I will only predict eight Top 5 points, three PTA and a total take of $42 million. It currently has a Rating of 8.1, and it’s not likely to drop more than half a point, so there’s that, but for $13 in the October Ultimate leagues (and also $13 in Box Office), I think that this film will not give you all you are hoping for, especially when you consider the size and potential of a dozen or so films coming in November and December.

American remakes of foreign films are often lambasted as poor knock-offs. When you consider that Let Me In is an adaptation of a Swedish film (Let the Right One In) that was released only two years ago (and made its way to limited release in America two autumns ago), you might expect that it would be equally ill-received. But this is absolutely not the case: like The Social Network, it too carries a current RT score of 100%, with 12/12 positive reviews. Yes, it’s early, and no film ever pleases every single critic in the country, but to have two films at 100% less than a week before release is just mind-blowing.

In reading some of said reviews, this film from director Matt Reeves (whose last film, the J.J. Abrams-produced hype-monster Cloverfield tanked miserably), which is based on the Swedish novel Let the Right One In by John Ajvide Lindqvist, takes great pains to recapture the essence of the critically-acclaimed Swedish film, only changing the names of the characters as well as the locale.

The story: Owen (The Road’s Kodi Smit-McPhee) is a 12-year-old New Mexico boy who suffers intense bullying at school. He lives with his mother (Cara Buono) and his hobbies include studying forensics and collecting newspaper clippings about murders. He befriends a girl named Abby (played by Kick Ass’s Chloe Moretz), who moves in next door to him, along with her father (Richard Jenkins). The two form a strong bond almost immediately, but it turns out that Abby is keeping a very dark secret: she’s a vampire, and must kill others for their blood in order to survive.

Yes, folks, another vampire story. But Let Me In is neither a brain-dead, pubescent love story like the Twilight films nor an even more brain-dead spoof of same. This is true horror, with all of the emotional repercussions one might expect. Can Owen’s friendship survive amid such terrible consequences – namely, a string of violent deaths that surround Abby? Can Owen himself even survive the overwhelming carnal bloodlust that consumes her?

It’s always a remarkable thing when you get terrific performances from actors that are so young that they wouldn’t be able to go to theaters to watch the movies they appear in. But according to the reviews, both Smit-McPhee and Moretz are wonderful as Owen and Abby, playing their parts with “just the right mix of childish innocence and subdued maturity”.

It sucks that on a week where there are two monumentally-well-reviewed films coming out, I can’t really recommend either one. The bad news for Let Me In is, it’s only being released in only 2,000 theaters, and since 1) Overture Films has barely advertised it, 2) Twilight fans are unlikely to care about a female vampire not even in her teens, and 3) it’s just another in a sea of horror films, I seriously doubt this film will even crack $10 million in its first three days. Given how well Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps and The Town (well-reviewed adult films) and Legend of the Guardians (3D/kids’ movie) are likely to hold, I predict Let Me In will crack the Top 5 at the very back end, pulling in one Top 5 point, two or possibly three PTA and around $18 million. And unfortunately, its current IMDb rating is nowhere near its RT score (5.8 with almost 500 votes), so it won’t help you in that category either. For $11 in Ultimate ($12 in Box Office), stay the hell away from this film. Sorry.

And now, a bit about this weekend’s two limited-release films:

Freakonomics ($4 Ult) – This documentary, which is based on the best-selling book by economist Steven D. Levitt and journalist Stephen J. Dubner, is the culmination of the collaborative efforts of six separate directors, including Morgan Spurlock (Super Size Me), Eugene Jarecki (Why We Fight), Alex Gibney (Taxi to the Dark Side) and Seth Gordon (King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters).

The concept of freakonomics is basically applying economic theory to an extremely diverse number of subjects that traditional economists wouldn’t normally cover. Some examples include: the socioeconomic patterns of the names given to children; the negligible effects of good parenting on education; discovering cheating as applied to teachers and, yes, sumo wrestling; and the economics of drug dealing, including the surprisingly low earnings and living conditions of the average crack dealer.

I know, it’s not exactly a polarizing topic like last week’s PTA champ Waiting for “Superman” or next week’s Inside Job. And for that reason, critics are split (4/4 on RT). Most agree that while mildly entertaining, Freakonomics doesn’t offer much in the way of self-explanation, and neither does the sum total of the efforts of six notable documentary filmmakers add up to anything truly meaningful on-screen.

If Freakonomics opened on any other weekend but the OW of a particular month, and against such sparse competition, I would not be recommending it. It is opening in 17 theaters this Friday (expanding to roughly 30 more locations over October), which puts it right on the cusp of PTA viability. It currently has a so-so Rating of 6.3 (with only 88 votes). The best thing I can say is, for only $4, you are virtually guaranteed of anywhere from three to five PTA points, which is a pretty good trade-off.

Douchebag ($4 Ult) – This indie feature, from little-known Red Dragon Pictures, is a black-comedy-slash-road-trip movie directed by Drake Doremus. It tells the story of Sam Nussbaum (Andrew Dickler), who is about to journey to L.A. to marry his fiancée Steph (Marguerite Moreau). He invites along his brother, aspiring artist Tom (Adam Culkin), despite the bad blood between them. Along the way, the trio try to track down the girl that Tom had a crush on… in the fifth grade.

Douchebag is obviously the wild card of this week’s releases. It’s gotten less-than-stellar reviews (only 2/5, but one of those two positives was from the critic of the Hollywood Reporter), and yet it has a very respectable Rating so far (7.3/45 votes). It’s being released in only one theater this Friday in Los Angeles, and it was a Sundance entrant. Add all that up, and its PTA could finish anywhere from first place (five points) to last place (two points). Ask yourself if its worth the risk for $4.


My predictions for the weekend of October 1-3, 2010:

1. The Social Network - $17 million
2. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps - $12 million
3. The Town - $11 million
4. Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole - $10 million
5. Let Me In - $8 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, my docket doubles in size as eight movies will be brought to theaters on October 8: Life as We Know It, a romantic comedy starring Josh Duhamel and Katherine Heigl; Secretariat, the story behind the remarkable horse that won the Triple Crown back in the 70’s; My Soul to Take, a horror movie from Universal; as well as a bevy of limited release films (Stone, Nowhere Boy, It’s Kind of a Funny Story, Tamara Drewe, and Inside Job).

Later!





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Donte77
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

Post by Donte77 »

I read Freakonomics and I loved the book. Not sure how they are filming it but good luck. LOL
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

Post by Buscemi »

The film version of Freakonomics will probably fare like Fast Food Nation did: very limited interest and a weak adaptation of the book. Also, I don't like the fact that they got Seth Gordon to direct a segment (seeing that his King Of Kong was not only extremely overrated but also had quite a bit faked for dramatic purposes).

Anyways, I'll predict:

1. The Social Network $14 million (despite critical acclaim, I just don't see the general interest)
2. Let Me In $13 million (yes, Relativity has done a bad job promoting it but the reviews should help it and horror buffs will come to it)
3. Legend Of The Guardians $12 million
4. Wall Street 2 $10 million
5. The Town $9 million
-- Case 39 $1.5 million (may perform a little better in Hispanic-dominated markets though since Latin America has been where the film has been most successful)
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Donte77 wrote:I read Freakonomics and I loved the book. Not sure how they are filming it but good luck. LOL
I'd be interested to hear just why you loved it, Donte. Or more specifically, what impressions you got from it, and what details struck you the deepest (I've not read it, FYI).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Nothing on Case 39?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

'Fraid not, Banks. It was added to its time slot quite late, after we'd already created the pricing schemes for that season.

Would you REALLY have wanted it even if it had been there?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

Post by numbersix »

Social Network is tracking rather high, still in its high 20's. Because of its topicality, it's al over the press, in every media, so I think there's going to be a lot of adults in their 30's and 40's going to it just to feel relevent. Plus the good reviews and strong writer and director credits will make for interesting viewing. That said, Wall Street 2's underperformance is a bad sign. I'm gonna say 20-22 mil. Let Me In is tracking low, and it just looks like it's going under the radar. I'd say about 10 mil or so.

A pity Case 39 is not available for the game, though it probably won't crack the Top 5 anyway.

As for Freakonomics, it's getting mediocre reviews but it should get some PTA points. That said, Waiting for Superman, You Will Meet.., and maybe Buried should get some PTA points next week, so it'll be a battle.

I haven't read Freakonomics but finished SuperFreakonomics. It's basically a glib attempt at disproving some popular research-based beliefs. It does have a very interesting chapter on global warming and bioengineering (and it's a lot more entertaining than it sounds).

Buscemi, not sure if your comparison with Fast Food Nation works as the movie was a drama, not a documentary. But ultimately, yeah, this won't be a Fahrenheit 9/11 breakout or anything, but it could be a PTA champ if reviews improve. Also, remember that almost every documentary stages things, not just King of Kong, because ultimately its more powerful to show something, even if that has to be staged, than to simply tell. It's a key rule of filmmaking.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

Post by Donte77 »

It has been a few years since I read it but the one I really remember was about how kids with certain names have a better chance at having a mother without a high school diploma or even less education than with other names. Plus the cheating Sumo wrestlers was hilarious and almost looked obvious considering how long it has been going on.

Looking at all this statistical information in a new way was the first time I can recall having been excited to read a book that was basically about econ and numbers which I normally find very boring.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

Post by Buscemi »

Tomatometer on this week's wide releases:

The Social Network 98% (53/54, the only negative review came from Armond White)
Let Me In 90% (27/30, one of the three negative reviews came from Armond White while the other two came from the mainstream-bashing Village Voice and Brian Orndorf, who hates damn near every movie out there)
Case 39 20% (mostly from international critics, who wants to bet Armond White gives a positive review to this?)

Limited Releases:

Ip Man 81% (13/16)
Leaving 81% (25/31)
Freakonomics 50% (8/16)
Douchebag 44% (4/9)
Hatchet II 25% (2/8, these movies are usually critic-proof anyway)
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

I just read that Resident Evil: Afterlife has made more than $150 million overseas, which is more than the first two RE movies made combined. Guess the 3D was a good idea. This virtually assures a Chapter 5.

In other news, Inception is now up to $773.7 million internationally. Wow.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

Post by Buscemi »

From early reports, The Social Network looks like an underperformer. Let Me In seems to be doing average and nothing on Case 39 yet.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

Post by Buscemi »

New reports: The Social Network is selling out in New York and Los Angeles but not much action in other cities. Let Me In is looking like a flop. Still nothing on Case 39.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

Post by Buscemi »

Latest: a poster on Box Office Mojo is claiming that The Social Network is outselling Wall Street 2 by a two-to-one margin (most likely meaning a $7-8 million opening day). Meanwhile, Let Me In is said to be missing the Top 5 completely.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

Post by Buscemi »

Early Friday Numbers

1. The Social Network (Sony) NEW [2,771 Theaters]
Friday $9.5M, Estimated Weekend $27M
-Surprised at the high numbers here. I expected the only audience for this to be old people (since younger audiences seemed to be trashing it).

2. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (Fox) [3,597 Theaters]
Friday $3.3M (-52%), Estimated Weekend $10.2M

3. The Town (Warner Bros) Week 3 [2,935 Theaters]
Friday $3M, Estimated Weekend $9.6M

4. Legend Of The Guardians: The Owls (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,575 Theaters]
Friday $2.5M (-45%), Estimated Weekend $10.2M

5. Easy A (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 3 [2,974 Theaters]
Friday $2.1M, Estimated Weekend $6.3M

6. Let Me In (Overture/Relativity] NEW [2,020 Theaters]]
Friday $1.7M, Estimated Weekend $4.7M
-Major disaster for Relativity. It especially didn't help that the company spent more time promoting The Social Network (they co-financed it) than promoting this. If Relativity wants to be a major player in distribution, they can't be treating the films they distribute as stepchildren. Had Overture remained at Starz, this would have made $5 million in the first day and had a weekend number similar to The Crazies back in February.

7. You Again (Disney) Week 3 [2,548 Theaters]
Friday $1.6M (-41%), Estimated Weekend $5M

8. Case 39 (Paramount) NEW [2,211 Theaters]
Friday $1.5M, Estmated Weekend $4.1M
-This was expected though I was thinking more of Virginity Hit-type numbers.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 10/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Those numbers for Social Network look hinky. Those Friday numbers may repeat on Saturday, but they almost always lose about 50% from Saturday to Sunday. I'd say $23 million OW tops.

I think I'm going to be pretty close on all the others. I didn't think Easy A was going to outgross Let Me In in its third week, though. Wow, such a shame Let Me In is going to tank, as from the reviews it would appear that it deserves so much better.
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