SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/22, 9/24

[Shrykespeare]

On a weekend that featured a multitude of new debuts, The Town surprised by pulling in over $23 million, which is a very noteworthy feat when you consider that Ben Affleck’s last directorial project, Gone Baby Gone, made only $20.3 million in its entire run (though The Town benefited heavily from a much wider release platform, with over 1,000 more theaters showing it). Kudos also to Never Let Me Go and Catfish, which respectively came in first and second in the PTA race.

The weekend of September 24th will feature the release of six new films. Three of those films are being given a wide-release, but I’ll get to those in just a bit. I’m going to start off with You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger, which will be opening this Wednesday in select theaters in New York in Los Angeles. The total number of screens will probably put it on a level with 2009’s Whatever Works, which opened with a terrific PTA of over $29,000 in its initial weekend.

What these two films have in common, of course, is that they were both written and directed by Hollywood veteran Woody Allen. Stranger certainly has a lot to recommend it, not the least of which is its cast, which includes Sir Anthony Hopkins, Naomi Watts, Josh Brolin, Frieda Pinto, Gemma Jones and Antonio Banderas.

Like many Allen films, it’s an ensemble piece, with an ensemble cast telling ensemble stories. In a nutshell, the film follows two married couples: Alfie (Hopkins) and Helena (Jones) and their daughter Sally (Watts) and her husband Roy (Brolin). Both marriages have hit rough patches, however, as Alfie leaves Helena to pursue a relationship with a much younger, more free-spirited woman (Dinner For Schmucks’ Lucy Punch), causing Helena to consult a fortune teller to see where the rest of her life is going. Meanwhile, Sally and Roy, both unhappy, seek out relationships of their own, Sally with her art-gallery-owner boss (Banderas) and Roy with a mysterious neighbor (Pinto). Shot entirely in London, Stranger made its debut at the Cannes Film Festival this past summer.

And about that: early word on Woody Allen’s latest has not been favorable, to say the least. Only one-third of the twelve reviews so far on RT have been positive, and Owen Gleiberman of Entertainment Weekly calls it “notable, for being the first film Allen has made in London that’s every bit as bad as his most awful New York comedies, like Anything Else and Melinda and Melinda.” Ouch.

Even so, it’s still Woody Allen, and logic would dictate that some PTA points are definitely in the cards. It’s likely that the release platform for Stranger will eventually balloon to a few hundred theaters, and Allen’s name alone is more than enough to usually fill those theaters. However, it will run you $7 in the September Ultimate leagues, and with the rousing success of Never Let Me Go, I’m not entirely convinced that Stranger will walk away with much more than four PTA points. Of course, there is very little competition on this front coming next week, so it’s equally possible that it could score PTA in back-to-back weeks. It’s got a decent Rating (7.0 with over 400 votes), so that won’t hurt you too much either.

The first of this weekend’s big movies is Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole, which, if Box Office Mojo is correct, will be given the widest release of any film since The Other Guys last month. Additionally, it will be shown in many 3D locations, where it will likely replace or overwhelm the now-fading Resident Evil: Afterlife and the lackluster Alpha and Omega. Guardians is based on the series of books by Kathryn Lasky, which debuted in 2002 and wrapped up in 2008 with the series encompassing fifteen total books.

This big-screen adaptation will reportedly cover the first three books in the series, and Warner Bros. has brought in director Zack Snyder to bring the film to life. And while Snyder, the man behind 300, Watchmen and the upcoming Sucker Punch, has never helmed an animated movie before, he’s no stranger to the art of computer wizardry, having reaped its benefits in the Spartan megahit 300.

The plot: Soren (Jim Surgess) is a young barn owl who is smitten with the stories told to him by his father Noctus (Hugo Weaving) of the Guardians, a legendary alliance of owls who protect the Kingdom of Ga’Hoole. But when Soren is captured by a group of rogue owls led by the villainous Metalbeak (Joel Edgerton) and his mate Nyra (Helen Mirren), he learns that not only do the Guardians exist but that Metalbeak is planning to war against them. Soren must therefore find a way to escape and warn the Guardians about what’s coming. Emilie de Ravin, Anthony LaPaglia, Geoffrey Rush, Sam Neill, David Wenham, Abbie Cornish, Miriam Margolyes and Leigh Whannell (remember him from the original Saw?) also lend their voice talents.

Summer is long behind us, and looking ahead, it seems that October is populated mainly with horror films, adult dramas and a couple of adult comedies. There is very little for kids to go see until November, and since there won’t be a major 3D movie coming into play until Jackass 3D debuts in three weeks, Guardians should dominate 3D theaters until then. And judging from the trailer, the 3D aspect looks incredible.

Being shown in over 3,500 theaters, I look for Guardians to gobble up $31 million in its first three days. Kids' movies tend to hold very well (just look at Despicable Me for proof... it's STILL in the Top 20!), and for only $16 in Ultimate (as well as Box Office), you will get at least ten Top 5 points from this title. You will also likely pick up a few PTA, a rating in the 7’s, and quite possibly $100 million when all is said and done. So unless you’re back-loading your slate with November films, this is as worthy a pick as you’ll find in September or October.

In 1987, director Oliver Stone helmed a film called Wall Street. The main character, corporate raider Gordon Gekko (Michael Douglas) takes a young broker (Charlie Sheen) under his wing, but conflict arises between the two, which ends with the young broker informing to the authorities about Gordon’s illegal and unethical activities, and Gordon is sent to prison for insider trading.

Twenty-three years later, Stone is back with a sequel, entitled Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps. Gekko has been released from prison just in time for the 2008 economic crisis (what timing, eh?), but rather than get right back on the horse, he decides to mend fences with his estranged daughter Winnie (Carey Mulligan), who still blames him for her brother’s suicide. However, when the mentor of Winnie’s fiancé Jacob (Shia LaBeouf) dies unexpectedly, and he suspects his hedge fund manager of being involved, he turns, against Winnie’s advice, to Gordon to help him exact his revenge. Josh Brolin, Susan Sarandon, Frank Langella, and Eli Wallach co-star.

Greed may indeed be good, but will moviegoers feel the same way about a long-time-coming sequel to a film that earned Douglas an Oscar for Best Actor? Well, from what critics are saying (11/16 positive at RT), they just might. The goings-on at Jacob’s firm reportedly mirror what happened at Bear Stearns in 2008, and Stone pulls it off with his usual flair. It’s a tough period in recent history to revisit, however, and I would imagine that those who are true aficionados of Stone’s work will be able to find it the easiest to stomach.

Scheduled for release in 3,500 theaters, I envision $19 million for Money Never Sleeps’ first three days. Yes, it’s rated PG-13 (unlike its predecessor, which was rated R), but this isn’t the kind of film that draws young crowds, even if it DOES have Transformers star LaBeouf in a leading role. In all, I predict seven Top 5 points, a rating in the low 7’s (it’s currently at 7.4 with over 700 votes), and $50 million in receipts. For $11 in Ultimate ($10 in Box Office), that ain’t too shabby.

Getting considerably less fanfare is You Again, a comedy from Disney’s Buena Vista Pictures, which is surprising, given that the cast is particularly noteworthy. Directed by Andy Fickman (Race to Witch Mountain, The Game Plan), You Again tells the story of Marni Young (Kristen Bell) who comes home to discover that her brother is about to marry Joanna (The Unborn’s Odette Yustman), the cheerleader who tormented her incessantly in high school.

Of course, the plot thickens even further when Joanna brings her aunt Ramona (Sigourney Weaver) home to meet her fiancé’s family, and it turns out that SHE was the rival of Marni’s mother Gail (Jamie Lee Curtis) when THEY were teens. And so, two different generations must find a way to bury the hatchet… though whether they do that in a metaphorical way or physically remains to be seen. And adding to the comic relief as Marni’s grandma Bunny is Betty White, who at 88 years young has never been more popular (she just won an Emmy for her appearance on SNL).

But this is a tough weekend to find a foothold, and with it being shown in only 2,300 theaters, I don’t even think it will beat The Town’s second week, as I expect that film to hold fairly well. You Again is $9 in Ultimate ($8 in Box Office), but I think that’s too much to pay for this film, which will probably only give you a few Top 5 points, no PTA, a middling Rating and a maximum of $35 million. Which is a shame, because it looks pretty funny.

On the PTA-only front, going up against Woody Allen, Oliver Stone, Zack Snyder and Mark Romanek is Buried, a horror/thriller from Lionsgate that comes courtesy of Spanish director Rodrigo Cortes. And you should take notice of this film, SERIOUSLY, because all the hallmarks of a PTA giant just might be here: it’s debuting in only 10 locations, which is an excellent number; it has an amazing Rating so far (8.8 with over 700 votes); and it’s gotten stellar reviews (16/17 positive at RT).

Premiering at Sundance, Buried centers on the character of Paul Conroy (Ryan Reynolds), a truck driver who awakens to find that he has been buried alive in a coffin, with nothing but a lighter, a small knife, a cell phone and only a few hours of air. Although he has no memory of how he came to such a predicament, he must find a way to use the tools at hand to save himself before he suffocates. What makes this movie so compelling, apart from Reynolds’ performance, is the claustrophobic nature of the way the film is shot, as the entire length of the film takes place within the confines of Paul’s coffin.

Buried will only run you $6 in the September Ultimate leagues ($5 in Box Office), and I would recommend it for the User Rating alone. It will easily pick up a few PTA points, and if word of mouth is very good, it could explode when it expands to wide release two weeks hence. I’m not sure how wide, but $20-$30 million could easily happen.

Clouding the picture even further is Waiting for “Superman”, a documentary from the man behind the Academy Award-winning An Inconvenient Truth. After Davis Guggenheim’s polarizing film regarding the ozone layer, he has turned his eye toward the American educational system which, mildly put, is in dire need of fixing. Just watch the trailer: the numbers, if true, are alarming, to say the least.

Much like Michael Moore does in his films, Guggenheim will intersperse factual information – just how freaking far behind the rest of the world the U.S., the “greatest country on Earth”, is in terms of education – with footage of several students, who are followed as they journey through the educational system. I must say, It’s often refreshing when documentaries draw a big red circle around the exact cause of any of the huge problems facing society, but it’s easy to do that. The question is, does it propose a solution?

Well, the few reviews I’ve seen for Superman (which won the Audience Award at Sundance, BTW) seem to indicate that the film instills a sense of hope, calling it “engaging and at times, very, very moving”. If the kids and teachers profiled here are any indication, maybe a fix is possible. But is it a good pick? Well, it’s $5 in Ultimate, and it’s being shown in four theaters this Friday, which makes PTA a definite possibility. It would surprise me if it won the PTA crown, but not that much.


My predictions for the weekend of September 24-26, 2010:

1. Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole - $31 million
2. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps - $19 million
3. The Town - $14 million
4. You Again - $12 million
5. Easy A - $10 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the final chapter of the 2010 Super Leagues begins with the beginning of October, which will herald the release of four new films: The Social Network, David Fincher’s take on the story of the creators of Facebook; Let Me In, a horror thriller about a boy who discovers that the girl next door is a vampire; as well as two limited-release films, comedy Douchebag and documentary Freakonomics.

Later!

[Buscemi]

I'll go with...

1. Legend Of The Guardians $33 million
2. The Town $15 million
3. You Again $14 million
4. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps $12 million (this won't be as big as expected)
5. Easy A $8 million (won't hold well due to competition)
-- The Virginity Hit $4 million (though it could get up to $10 million if Internet hype is really that good)

[numbersix]

I'm not that impressed by the Legend of the Guardians trailer or the premise. The pace seems a little... slow for the kids. I'm gonna say 28 mil.
Tracking is good for Wall Street 2 (in the 20's!)but there's just something about it I don't like. In ways it feels like it's too late, like Basic Instinct 2. However, it does have Shia and the trailer ain't half bad. It'll do well with an older audience, but they're not the type to flock to a movie on its opening weekend. I'll say about 18 mil. As for You Again, there's too much competition from Easy A, so we'll probably see it disappoint with 13 mil.

t's a tough call between Buried and Waiting for Superman. Buried is in 10 screens, Superman in 4. But I think Buried will nab it as it's Ryan Reynolds, and the reviews will certainly help.

[Buscemi]

Reviews so far (from Rotten Tomatoes):

Wall Street 2 54% (way down from 90% from a few months ago)
The Virginity Hit 34%
Buried 86%
Waiting For Superman 86%
You Will Meet A Tall Dark Stranger 40%
Howl 38%

Legend Of The Guardians has two reviews up (one positive, one negative) while You Again has no reviews up (I think this is being withheld from critics, the new Disney/Rich Ross regime seems to want to bury it since the old Dick Cook regime was so high on its chances. By then again, the Ross regime thought The Sorcerer's Apprentice would be huge.).

[Buscemi]

Legend Of The Guardians is at 50% after six reviews. However, Brian Orndorf (a critic who is usually hard to impress) gave it a positive review so the rating could go up.

[Brockster]

MTC is tracking for Wall Street to win the weekend w/ over 30M

I've been really surprised at all the advertisement for Wall Street, it's all over the place and on multiple channels. Also, Michael Douglas has been in the media a lot lately w/ his cancer battle, which although is very scary for him, may actually help the movie b/c of awareness (as sick as that sounds).

Meanwhile, I'm not sensing any buzz for Legend. It kind of reminds me of the feeling when Golden Compass came out (and bombed). Might it be too far over young kids heads? Looks a little dark to me too.

Very tough call between Buried and Superman...I've switched back and forth between them twice already today.

[Buscemi]

But wasn't MTC off by quite a bit on Easy A too (and underpredicted The Town by $8 million)?

I just don't see the mass interest in Wall Street 2. Many people's general opinion seems to be, "Wall Street? They did a sequel to that?" Also, Oliver Stone's last film didn't do very well.

[numbersix]

Even with good reviews Wall Street 2 just doesn't have a solidified fan base as such (it's like having a sequel to an Altman film or something). And will people flock to see a drama centred on the economic recession?

Guardians is tracking in the high 20's - Still a pretty solid figure for a film like this

[transformers2]

I like Legend Of The Guardians winning the weekend. It's been getting a good amount of ad's and there hasn't been a solid family film in a while. Wall Street should do decent its getting a pretty good amount of ad's and I think there is still somewhat of an audience for it. You Again I don't really like the chances on, I was a lot higher on this film about a month ago but now I am pretty unsure.

My predictions for the new openers
Legend Of The Guardians 29 Mill
Wall Street Money:Never Sleeps 16 Mill
You Again 11 Mill

[Shrykespeare]

Wow, have you seen The Virginity Hit's IMDB rating? It's 4.1 with 351 votes. I'm so glad it's not available in the game.

[Buscemi]

That's worse than the last movie from the same people (The Last Exorcism).

[Shrykespeare]

By the way, everybody, I have created a new Regulars Ultimate League for everyone to join.

Click on the one that says "Regulars Ultimate League (OCT) - TV Cartoons No Movies

It sucks as a title, but at least it works.

[Buscemi]

Friday numbers: Disappointments all around (except maybe a hold from The Town and a surprising hold from Easy A).

1. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (Fox) NEW [3,565 Runs]
Friday $8M, Estimated Weekend $22.5M

2. The Town (Warner Bros) Week 2 [2,885 Runs]
Friday $5.1M (-38%), Estimated Weekend $16M, Estimated Cume $49M

3. Legend Of The Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole (Warner Bros) NEW [3,575 Runs]
Friday $5M, Estimated Weekend $19M
-I blame animation age ghetto (along with Snyder fanboys trashing him for making a family film) for this weak opening. Apparently every animated feature has to be funny to succeed. Hopefully Warner Bros. sticks with it because it really deserves an audience.

4. Easy A (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 2 [2,856 Runs]
Friday $3.8M (-44%), Estimated Weekend $11.5M, Estimated Cume $44M
-Didn't expect this to hold that well. Looked like a 50% dropper to me.

5. You Again (Disney) NEW [2,548 Runs]
Friday $3.2M, Estimated Weekend $9.5M
-Expect Disney's marketing department to get the blame for this. The old Dick Cook regime was high on the film's chances but the Rich Ross regime basically dumped it. Also, the trailers made it look like Bride Wars 2 instead of the ensemble that it really is.

6. Devil (Universal) Week 2 [2,811 Runs]
Friday $2.3M (-52%), Estimated weekend $6.7M, Estimated Cume $22M

7. Resident Evil: Afterlife 3D (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 3 [2,642 Runs]
Friday $1.8M, Estimated Weekend $6M, Estimated Cume $53M

8. Alpha & Omega (Lionsgate) Week 2 [2,625 Runs]
Friday $1.1M (-50%), Estimated Weekend $4.9M, Estimated Cume $15.2M

9. Takers (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 5 [1,413 Runs]
Friday $575K, Estimated Weekend $1.9M, Estimated Cume $55M

10. The American (Focus Features) Week 4 [1,315 Runs]
Friday $400KM, Estimated Weekend $1.3M, Estimated Cume $35M

[Shrykespeare]

Here are Box Office Mojo's Friday numbers:

1. Wall Street 2, $7M
2. The Town, $5.035M
3. Legend of the Guardians, $4.575M
4. Easy A, $3.6M
5. You Again, $2.75M
6. Devil, $2.1M
7. Res Evil: Afterlife, $1.4M
8. Alpha & Omega, $1.1M


I wouldn't write off LOtG just yet. Remember, kids movies tend to do better on Sat/Sun then they do on Fridays, especially given that school is back in session again. Saturday could easily find LOtG at #1 with triple Friday's numbers.

[Buscemi]

The fourth wide opener for the day, The Virginity Hit, opened to a disastrous $105,000 in 700 theatres for a $150 PTA. This once again shows that online hype does not translate into ticket sales (the trailer got over two million views, the movie only sold an estimate of 13,125 tickets on opening day).