SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/17

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/17

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Happy Birthday, NSpan and SuperShaan!!


As expected, Resident Evil: Afterlife, devoid of competition and armed with a one-two punch of 3D and 3D/IMAX theater additions, cruised to an easy win this past weekend, amassing $27 million in receipts… which ended up being more than the #2-#6 films earned combined. Not too shabby.

The weekend of September 17th features NINE new films (four wide and five limited release), which means that I don’t have a lot of time for dilly-dally. Since all four new wide-release films are going to be debuting on virtually identical numbers of screens (between 2,500 and 3,000), it makes this a particularly bothersome weekend to try to predict. These four movies, along with Resident Evil: Afterlife, could conceivably finish the Top 5 in any order at all.

The new film that has the highest price tag this week is, ironically, the one with the smallest supposed release platform (2,500 theaters), and that is Alpha and Omega, which is being brought to theaters courtesy of Lionsgate and Crest Animation Productions. It is a computer-animated film that will be shown in both 2D and 3D, though I don’t expect it to supplant Resident Evil: Afterlife in 3D numbers by a long shot.

Alpha and Omega is another on the mile-long list of animated films whose main characters are members of the animal kingdom: in this case, wolves. And if you don’t know much about wolf hierarchical structure, well, it’s a lot like high school: the alphas are the pack leaders, and they get their pick of the pack in terms of food and potential mates, while the omegas are the nerds, the outsiders all but shunned by their own kind. Humphrey (Justin Long) is an omega, who enjoys palling around with his slacker friends; thing is, he also has a thing for Kate (Hayden Panettiere), an alpha female who takes her position in her society very seriously.

However, things get interesting when, quite by chance, Kate and Humphrey are both tranked by local hunters and “relocated” from Canada to a national park in Idaho, where they are expected to “repopulate” their species there… which suits Humphrey just fine, but Kate’s not all that wild about the idea (duh). Therefore, the duo must, by any means necessary, find a way back home. Christina Ricci, Danny Glover, Larry Miller also lend their voices, along with Dennis Hopper (in one of his final roles).

Alpha and Omega will run you $8 in the September Ultimate game and $10 in Box Office, and I can tell you right now, it’s not worth it. Some parents might take their kids to see it, and those kids might even enjoy it; but I think parents are far more likely to wait one extra week for Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole, which is also being shown in 3D and looks like a better film in pretty much every category. I think it will finish its OW at the tail end of the Top 5, with only $9 million in its first three days. Pass, pass, pass.

Sony/Screen Gems’ Easy A is up next. This is a teenage comedy being helmed by director Will Gluck, but unlike his last outing (Fired Up!), this one looks immeasurably better. It tells the tale of clean-cut high-schooler Olive Penderghast (Zombieland’s Emma Stone) who becomes the center of attention when her devout Christian classmate Marianne (Amanda Bynes, who should not be playing high-schoolers any more) overhears Olive insinuating that she lost her virginity over the past weekend, and takes delight in spreading the rumor.

Of course, when Olive agrees to let it be known that the guy she was with was her gay friend Brandon (Dan Byrd), she is soon inundated with requests from other less-than-popular guys to do the same for them… except that it’s all a lie, and any sex involved is actually just implied. Of course, that’s all just fuel for the fire for Marianne, who turns Olive’s life into that of Hester Prynne’s from the classic book The Scarlet Letter. Penn Badgley, Thomas Haden Church, Patricia Clarkson, Cam Gigandet, Stanley Tucci, Lisa Kudrow and Malcolm McDowell co-star.

I’ve liked this film since the moment I saw its first trailer. It looks smartly written, clever and funny, which is something that 90% of most teen comedies are NOT. It’s also gotten terrific reviews so far (5/6 on RT), which really make me want to see it. Regrettably, it’s been advertised very poorly, so I can’t envision it making much of a splash this weekend, which is a shame. I predict $11 million for Easy A’s OW, along with only two Top 5 points. It’s only $7 in Ultimate ($8 in Box Office), but I can’t recommend picking it, unless you are in need of a high-Rating film (it’s currently at a robust 7.7 with over 300 votes).

Also costing $7 in Ultimate ($8 in Box Office) is The Town, a gritty crime thriller that marks the second major directorial project for Ben Affleck. Three years after the somewhat-acclaimed Gone Baby Gone, The Town hits theaters with Affleck not only directing, but starring. Ben plays Doug MacRay, one of a quartet of bank robbers who work the area of Charlestown, Massachusetts.

During the course of one of their robberies, however, they end up taking the bank manager (Rebecca Hall) hostage. She comes to no harm, but things get complicated when Doug develops feelings for her, and strikes up a relationship with her (she doesn’t know who he really is, since he was masked during her ordeal). Naturally, this doesn’t sit well with either Doug’s friend Jem (The Hurt Locker’s Jeremy Renner), or Jem’s sister Krista (Blake Lively), who is Doug’s ex-girlfriend and mother to their daughter. And given that the gang is being vigorously pursued by FBI Special Agent Adam Frawley (Mad Men’s Jon Hamm), the excrement will definitely hit the fan before the film’s climax.

The Town, too, has gotten good reviews (8/11 on RT and a Rating of 8.6 with 191 votes on IMDb), but I’m somewhat leery of recommending it. It’s rated R, and this genre is not one that appeals to a wide spectrum of filmgoers. Plus, Ben Affleck is still in the process of establishing himself as a director. I think The Town is a step in the right direction for him, but it’s only a marginally decent pick for your slates. I predict $14 million in its first three days, en route to six Top 5 points, maybe one or two PTA and about $32 million overall. I think you can do better later on in the year.

The last of the wide-release films is Devil, a horror/thriller from Universal Pictures and “the mind of M. Night Shyamalan”. The premise: five people get stuck in the elevator of a skyscraper, which is a tense enough situation, except that one of the five is not what they seem to be… which is to say, human.

This is the first in a purported series of films called The Night Chronicles, which will feature supernatural elements within modern urban society. It is also the first of two films that will feature a main setting that is an extremely small space (Buried, which opens next week, supposedly has its entire run-time shot within a coffin). It has no truly recognizable names in its cast – though I do remember Chris Messina from Julie & Julia – and it has made no attempt to hide the fact that M. Night is the wizard behind this film’s curtain… and that makes me worried.

What started as a promising career a decade ago with The Sixth Sense has turned into a downward spiral from which M. Night has yet to recover. Sure, The Last Airbender was able to limp to nine figures, but I’d hardly call that a career renaissance. It’s gotten to the point where attaching his name to films is more likely to hurt its chances than help it, which is a shame, because I still think he has some promise as a director if he could just get out of his own head.

But I digress. Teaming up with John Erick Dowdle (Quarantine) and his brother Drew Dowdle may prove fruitful in the long run. Universal has advertised the hell out of Devil, and I think it has the best chance of winning a rather weak weekend. I envision $18 million from Friday to Sunday, on its way to eight Top 5 points, three PTA and $44 million overall. For $7 in Ultimate AGAIN (and $8 in Box Office AGAIN), this could be a good pick for you, if you’re brave enough to choose it. After all, who thought Takers would manage thirteen Top 5 points in three weeks?!

And now, a little bit about the five limited-release films coming this weekend:

Never Let Me Go ($5 Ult) (being released 9/15) – It’s been eight years since Mark Romanek directed One Hour Photo, and his long-awaited follow-up is this adaptation of the best-selling book by Kazuo Ishiguro. Taking place in a dystopian Britain, three young children spend their time at an idyllic boarding school called Hailsham. But what they don’t know is that when they turn 18, they undergo a series of operations that basically end their lives. Why, you ask? Because they are clones, and that is their purpose. When the three kids, Ruth, Kathy and Tommy, all grown up now (and played by Keira Knightley, Carey Mulligan and Andrew Garfield) venture into the outside world for the first time, they explore their new society with a sense of wonder and innocence – as well as their budding sexuality, which results in Ruth and Tommy falling in love.

It sounds like a sci-fi movie, but it really isn’t. It’s an exploration of humanity, or more specifically, what makes someone human. And when you add up this cast, this director and this author, along with the fact that it is set to bow on only four screens this Friday, you have all the makings of a PTA monster. The only caveat: early reviews have been decent but not spectacular, and its early Rating is indicative of that (6.7 with 119 votes). For $5, you are almost guaranteed of some PTA points, but it is an awfully crowded weekend, so watch yourself.

Kings of Pastry ($3 Ult) (being released 9/15) – This is a documentary (brought to us by First Run) about a subject that, for the people involved, is as sacred and special as the Olympics: the Meilleur Ouvrier de France (Best Craftsman in France). It is a competition that determines the most creative and celebrated dessert chefs in the business, and it, too, is held every four years. But we’re not talking about stuff you see in run-of-the-mill baker’s shops: these desserts have to look like high art, and taste like nothing you’ve ever tasted before. Needless to say, tensions run high at these events.

It looks like an interesting view, and the finished products look so tantalizing that you want to leap into the screen for a taste. The reviews have been outstanding so far (4/4 at RT), but this is going to be an awfully tough weekend to find a foothold. It could easily win, but I find it hard to believe that it will. I’m not sure how many theaters will be showcasing it, so I cannot recommend it at this time.

Catfish ($5 Ult) – This one’s a big of an enigma. Shot on a hand-held camera, it has all the outward appearances of a documentary… that is, until you realize that it’s more like The Blair Witch Project. The main character is Nev Schulman, a New York photog who is surprised when an 8-year-old Michiganian girl named Abby sends him a painting of one of his pictures. Soon after, they become Facebook friends, and Abby eventually introduces Nev to her parents and her very attractive older sister Megan. And all this time, this weird “relationship” is being chronicled on camera by Nev’s friends Henry and Ariel. However, the drama really starts when the trio journey to Michigan to meet Abby and her family. And then… well, one of the quotes in the trailer call Catfish “the best Hitchcock film Hitchcock never directed”, if that gives you a clue how the film ends. (If you want a bigger clue, check out this review on ReelSociety.com. http://www.reelsociety.com/wordpress/20 ... /#more-226

This is a tough call. If what Ryan says is true, audiences will be going into theaters expecting one thing and getting something else. Catfish will be debuting in 12 locations, which is well within the tolerable number for PTA possibility, and it has a decent Rating so far (7.1 with over 200 votes). I wouldn’t take it, though, because everything about this film just makes me uneasy.

Jack Goes Boating ($4 Ult) – Based on a 2007 play by Bob Glaudini, this film makes the directorial debut of actor Phillip Seymour Hoffman, who also stars in the title role. He also co-produced the film, along with a group of people responsible for such films as Little Miss Sunshine, Sunshine Cleaning and Away We Go.

Jack is a NYC limo driver, who spends most of his time hanging out with his best friend Clyde (John Ortiz) and his wife Lucy (Daphne Rubin-Vega). He dreams of working for the MTA and loves reggae to the point where he’s attempting to dreadlock his hair. Clyde sets Jack up on a date with Connie (Amy Ryan), and he is so taken with her that he starts changing his life for her, including learning how to swim so that he can take her on the romantic boat ride that she wants. However, while his and Connie’s relationship starts to grow, Clyde’s and Lucy’s begins to disintegrate.

Jack Goes Boating is set to debut on four screens this weekend, and it is my marginal pick to win the PTA crown this week. Hoffman has a terrific reputation, and the consensus seems to be that he could have a brilliant career as a director if he decides to continue it. The film’s whopping 8.7 Rating (with 213 votes) should be enough to coax you into picking it, if nothing else.

The Wild Hunt ($3 Ult) – This film was supposed to come out in mid-July, but was postponed at the last minute to this incredibly crowded weekend. Here is my excerpt from the July column that featured my critique:

“…This is a Canadian drama/horror film that is produced and directed by Alexandre Franchi (who also co-wrote the screenplay). The film centers on a young man named Erik (Ricky Mabe), who has just had a falling-out with his girlfriend Evelyn (Kaniehtiio Horn), who just so happens to be one a group of people that enjoys live-action role-playing, re-enacting the conditions, lifestyle and language of the medieval times.

Now, as I'm sure you can imagine if you've ever been to a Renaissance Fair or SCA outing (or even if you've just seen Role Models), there are people in groups like this who take it WAYYYYY too seriously. And as such, the one thing they hate more than anything is someone who bursts their bubble of fantasy by bringing modern technology or irrelevant problems to their world. And when Erik interrupts events in an attempt to win Evelyn back, things take a horrifically ugly turn... think Lord of the Flies but with supposedly reasonable adults.”

This film may have had a chance at some PTA points if had stayed put, but on this weekend, against this competition, forget it. Pass.


My predictions for the weekend of September 17-19, 2010:

1. Devil - $18 million
2. The Town - $14 million
3. Resident Evil: Afterlife - $13 million
4. Easy A - $11 million
5. Alpha and Omega - $9 million


Well, that, mercifully, will do it for me for another week. Next week, six new films rear their heads, including: Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole, an animated 3D feature from Watchmen director Zach Snyder; Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, the long-time-coming Oliver Stone sequel starring Michael Douglas and Shia LaBeouf; You Again, a comedy starring Kristen Bell, Jamie Lee Curtis and Betty White; Buried, a horror/thriller starring Ryan Reynolds; and two limited-released features, including You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger, Woody Allen’s latest film, and a documentary Waiting for Superman.

Later!










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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/17

Post by Buscemi »

I'll say...

The Town $21 million
Devil $14 million
Resident Evil: Afterlife $10 million
Easy A $9 million
Alpha and Omega $3.5 million
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/17

Post by numbersix »

Boosch, despite the positive response to Gone Baby Gone (which I'll never understand), The Town won't make beyond 20mil opening weekend. This is going to be another split weekend with several markets picking their movie and little crossover potential. I'd say The Town will beat Devil, though, but they'll both be around 15mil or so.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/17

Post by Buscemi »

But didn't you say the same thing about Law Abiding Citizen last year? The market for a pure adult-oriented action thriller is open and this satisfies the demand. Also, there has been a lot of ads around lately.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/17

Post by numbersix »

I can't remember what I said about Law Abiding Citizen! But current tracking suggests The Town won't do as well as that. Good point though.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/17

Post by Buscemi »

You said that Law Abiding Citizen had no shot of hitting $20 million opening weekend and I remember some predictors only had it making $10-12 million for the weekend. The film opened to $21 million and finished with $73 million.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/17

Post by numbersix »

It scares me that you remember my throwaway predictions for films. Hopfully others will focus on that rather on how accurate said predictions are!

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/17

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

I think The Town will get $20M, only because WB has done a great job connecting it with The Departed. Which of course was a huge hit and a movie lots of people loved.

Devil and Easy A should duke it out for 2nd, and it'll probably be a close call.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/17

Post by numbersix »

Breaking news: Latest tracking has Easy A opening to 24 Mil!!!! Devil 18, The Town 15, Alpha 8. Take these with a pinch of salt.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/17

Post by Buscemi »

And where did you see that?

Sometimes tracking can be wrong. I remember that Lottery Ticket was predicted to open at $20 million at one point only to end up at $10 million for the weekend. I just don't see enough interest (or promotion) for Easy A for it to do that well (except on the unreliable Internet forums).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/17

Post by numbersix »

MTC tracking mentioned on a HSX forum. A real surprise. With Lottery Ticket, early tracking was high but it dropped the week of release. It's odd to see Easy A go so high. But tracking can indeed be way off, and this might be another example.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/17

Post by transformers2 »

I think Devil is going to tank. M.Night is box office poison and even though he is only a producer I think audiences will shy away. I am really not sure about The Town or Easy-A they could go either way.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/17

Post by Buscemi »

PG-13 horror movies almost never fail. The fact that younger audiences can get into them helps. Also, they love to heckle that shit.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/17

Post by transformers2 »

I am mostly likely going to see Devil this weekend for a laugh but I know there aren't that many people that are going to waste their money just to heckle it.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/17

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Remember When A Stranger Calls and Prom Night? Plenty of people wasted their money to heckle that one.
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