SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/10

[Shrykespeare]

Well, I warned you. The American wins the weekend with a mere $12 million, and Going the Distance can’t even manage $7 million despite a 3,000-screen opening. Machete got pretty good reviews and has a terrific rating (8.1), as well as points in the Top 5 and PTA categories, as did The American, but that’s about all the highlights this past weekend had to offer.

September is a month that is generally known as a transitional month, as we gradually segue from the last vestiges of summer films into the beginning of Oscar season. It’s kind of a weird month for a franchise to call home, but this weekend marks the third time that a sequel to the 2002 film Resident Evil has debuted in September. And in a month that is usually devoid of solid hits, this series of films has done reasonably well: 2004’s RE: Apocalypse managed $23M/$51.2M, and its follow-up, RE: Extinction brought in $23.7M/$50.7M.

Resident Evil: Afterlife is the fourth in the series that is based on the Capcom video game. All four installments were written by director Paul W.S. Anderson, but this is the first time since the original Resident Evil that he will be back in the big chair. And once again, he will be directing Ukrainian-born action vamp Milla Jovovich in the starring role, who also just happens (as of August ’09) to be his wife.

If you have not watched any of the movies or played the game, the premise itself is not terribly deep: a humongously powerful and evil entity called the Umbrella Corporation bioengineered a virus or somesuch that ended up turning most of the world’s population into zombies. Jovovich returns as Alice, who herself was bioengineered to be resistant to the virus but broke free of Umbrella’s shackles and now fights to take them down.

One of the recurring characters is Claire Redfield (Ali Larter), the leader of a group of survivors. Afterlife, however, will mark the first appearance in the series of Claire’s brother Chris (Wentworth Miller), who was a main character in the video game. This film will also mark the first-ever face-to-face between Alice and Albert Wesker (Shawn Roberts), the enigmatic head of Umbrella.

Normally, I would probably assign the Law of Diminishing Returns to this film. Most series begin to look tired from the third chapter on, and this could very well be the case with Afterlife. What gives me somewhat more hope is the fact that Sony Screen Gems increased the budget for this installment; not only was there multiple location shooting, but said shooting was done with James Cameron’s Fusion Camera System, which shoots in the same stereoscopic 3D that was featured in the mondo blockbuster smash Avatar. There really hasn’t been any 3-D movie to get excited about since Toy Story 3, and unlike the crapfests that were The Last Airbender or Clash of the Titans – which were horrendously converted to 3D after the fact – I’m betting (and hoping) that Resident Evil: Afterlife is worthy of the few extra bucks that I’ll pay at the counter.

After the miserable numbers put up the past weekend, Afterlife should easily cop the #1 spot. It’s been advertised quite well, and it’s one of the few films this month to get even a little excited about. It’s rated R, for violence and strong language, but I don’t expect that to hurt its chance too much. I expect Afterlife to pull in $27 million this weekend, and it has a decent shot at holding steady next weekend as well, given the smorgasbord of mediocrity coming next week. For $15 in the September Ultimate Leagues ($16 in Box Office), you could get as many as ten Top 5 points, three or four PTA, and a User Rating in the 6’s. Because of the 3D aspect, I will say that this fourth installment will outgross all the others in the series, and end up with around $63 million. Not too shabby a pick.

There are three limited-release films coming this Friday, and all three of them will only run you $3 in the September leagues. The first of these is Logan, and no, it’s not a low-budget take on the origins of the Marvel character Wolverine. This Logan is actually a 13-year-old boy who decides to take on the near-impossible task of filming a movie. Looking to his older brother Tyler (Patrick Probst) for support, he soon finds himself asking his schoolmates and community for help in completing the film. But just as Logan is about to call it quits, some unexpected tragedy occurs, and Tyler must find a way to finish that Logan started. (This much I got from the synopsis and trailer.)

Shot on location in Missouri, Logan is the first baby of the aptly-named Logan Films, and is being distributed by the heretofore-unknown Real Bean Entertainment. It’s a cute premise for a movie, but it looks more to me like a less-whimsical version of Son of Rambow that should be shown on Lifetime. I’m not sure how many screens it will be shown on, and it could well pick up a few PTA points, but there are surer bets to be had over the course of the season.

Bran Nue Dae, on the other hand, holds more promise. Maybe not as the PTA giant Animal Kingdom, which is also an Australian film, but still. The thing is, it’s about as far from Animal Kingdom as you can get – rather than being a taut, violent, moody crime drama, Bran Nue Dae is a musical, and is based on the 1990 stage musical of the same name.

Taking place in 1965, the film centers on Willie (Rocky McKenzie), an Aboriginal teen from the coastal town of Broome, Australia. He loves his life, and has developed strong feelings for a local girl named Rosie (Australian Idol runner-up Jessica Mauboy). But his mother sends him across the country to a Catholic school in Perth, run by the stern Father Benedictus (Geoffrey Rush), who does not care much for Willie’s rebellious nature. After the two have a confrontation, Willie escapes from the school and must try to make his way home by whatever means necessary, including enlisting the aid of a hobo (Ernie Dingo, who played the same role in the stage version). Along the way, there will be singing, dancing and much laughter.

Bran Nue Dae debuted in Australia in January, and eight months later, crosses the pond to America. Since then, it has been showcased in numerous international film festivals and garnered exceptional reviews (13/17 positive on RT). BOM has it bowing on twenty screens this weekend, which puts it just barely in the range for good PTA points. It only has a modest Rating (6.4) at the moment, but that could go up. If you’re going to take one of this weekend’s three smaller films, I would probably make it this one.

Last up is Legendary, a film created by the dubious collaboration of Samuel Goldwyn Films (Fireproof, Cold Souls) and WWE Films (The Marine, 12 Rounds). Why, you ask? Well, primarily because it co-stars current wrestling celeb John Cena.

Cena plays Mike Chetley, who comes from a family of wrestlers (actual wrestling, not like the kind on TV), who, after a tragic accident involving his brother, deserts his family and gets into numerous scrapes with the law. He is finally tracked down by his sister-in-law, Sharon (Patricia Clarkson), who begs him to return to help him mentor her 16-year-old son Cal (Devon Traye), who does not exactly possess the physical prowess of his forebears, to say the least. Danny Glover also co-stars.

The one review I found on RT for Legendary basically called it “Hallmark Hall of Fame schmaltz”. And there’s nothing wrong with that, I suppose. The review also claims that the acting is passable, and the wrestling scenes are quite authentic looking, so there’s that. The trouble is, the theater count for this film all but dooms its chances. According to Legendary’s official site, it will be bowing somewhere between 150 and 200 theaters, which will undoubtedly translate to zero PTA points. Pass on this one.


My predictions for the weekend of September 1-5, 2010:

1. Resident Evil: Afterlife - $27 million
2. The American - $7 million
3. Machete - $6 million
4. The Expendables - $4 million
5. The Other Guys - $4 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we go from a one-course meal to a veritable buffet of choices, as nine, count ‘em, NINE films bow in theaters, including: Devil, an M. Night Shyamalan-produced horror/thriller, The Town, a gritty crime drama directed by and starring Ben Affleck; Easy A, a teen comedy starring Emma Stone; Alpha and Omega, an animated family comedy about wolves; as well as limited releases Never Let Me Go, Kings of Pastry, Catfish, Jack Goes Boating and The Wild Hunt.

Later!

[Buscemi]

I noticed that they are premiering Logan in St. Louis (mainly because the filmmakers shot a show called Completing Kaden there that managed a cult following among Christian teenagers). However, I read early word that it's not very good so I don't expect much interest (maybe some people in St. Louis and the small following of Completing Kaden fans will come for the first weekend but I don't expect much else).

[Shrykespeare]

So how well do you guys think Resident Evil will open, especially with the 3-D aspect?

[Buscemi]

$24 million.

Meanwhile, I found out Flipped is coming here on Friday. Looks like they are doing a new set of regional tests on it.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Well, both of the sequels opened to $23M.

But this one has higher IMAX and 3D prices. Plus it's the only movie coming out this weekend.

I'd say $29M/$70M

[Donte77]

I was thinking about 28-30 million with the 3D aspect. Especially given the true 3D and not a conversion job.

[Buscemi]

Apparently, there will be a small reissue of Eclipse this week (which is currently in second-run in most places). I just saw that Summit is doing a "Bella's Birthday" promotion to get people to see it again. That and so the film can reach $300 million.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Wow. Bella's Birthday? They must think the Twilight fans are really, really stupid.

[Buscemi]

The ad is really poorly made too. It consists of the three leads and some bad Clip Art of a cake and presents Photoshopped into the picture.

[transformers2]

I am going with $26 Mill for Resident Evil. The Resident Evil films tend to do well and the 3-D aspect only helps. The 3-D appears to be very well done from the trailer I saw attached to Piranha 3-D so that is a bonus.

[Buscemi]

Theatre Counts This Week:

Resident Evil: Afterlife 3,203
Eclipse 1,187 (expanding from 396 theatres)
Flipped 442 (expanding from 26 theatres)
I'm Still Here 19
Bran Nue Dae 16

Legendary and Logan aren't known but Legendary was expected to be 150 to 200 theatres (probably regional). Logan is probably just the one theatre in St. Louis (that I know of).

Next Week:

Easy A 2,800 (did not expect this to go that wide, haven't seen much promotion and Sony moving back The Virginity Hit seemed as if this is expected to flop)
Devil 2,700
The Town 2,700
Alpha and Omega 2,500 (surprised this count is high too but then again it could be like Battle For Terra and drop from 2,500 to 1,000 a few days before release)
Catfish 12 (Universal and Relativity are thinking Paranormal Activity with it, I think not)
Jack Goes Boating 4 (Relativity's first release as a distributor)
Never Let Me Go 4

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Resident Evil: Afterlife - $10.9M
The American - $1.8M
Takers - $1.8M
Machete - $1.3M
Going the Distance - $1.3M
The Other Guys - $1M
The Last Exorcism - $1M
The Expendables - $950K
Eat Pray Love - $900K
Inception - $835K

No word on how the re-release of Eclipse did.

[Buscemi]

The expanded release of Flipped only did $145,000. I wasn't expecting a high number (there were only ten people at the showing I went to).

The Romantics (a Paramount release that wasn't included in the game) did a surprising $8,050 per theatre in its two-theatre opening. Looks like it could hit $20,000 PTA this weekend.

[Buscemi]

On the September 17th openers, two of them premiered at Toronto (The Town and Easy A). And believe it or not, Easy A is actually supposed to be good. I expected Jennifer's Body-type reviews on it. But I still can't see anyone seeing a sexless sex comedy (if she's supposed to be a slut, there should be a sex scene every 5-10 minutes) with a lead only a few horny Superbad fans care about (Emma Stone is not Lindsay Lohan and Easy A is not Mean Girls).

[BanksIsDaFuture]

So you still think Easy A will flop? Even with great reviews coming out of Toronto and no competition at all its OW.