SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/1, 9/3

[Shrykespeare]

I’m shocked. Given how poorly all the films of August 20th opened, I was sure that the two big movies being released on August 27th would follow suit. Less of a shock was The Last Exorcism: it’s the first real horror film (I don’t count Piranha 3D, which was sheer camp) since April, it’s gotten favorable reviews, and up until the ending, it was a damn good movie. For it to top $20 million is actually a pleasant surprise, though I fully expect it will drop off tremendously in coming weeks like most horror flicks to. The big surprise was Takers, a B-grade heist movie with C-list actors that had been postponed numerous times to finally be dumped into late August. I expected Babylon A.D. numbers, but it, too, topped $20 million. Who’da thunk it?!

The first weekend of September is HABITUALLY one of the weakest weekends of the year, and here are some numbers to back that up: last year, The Final Destination grossed $12 million in its second week AND STILL WON. The new films that weekend, All About Steve (3rd, $11.2M), Gamer (4th, $9.1M) and Extract (9th, $4.3M) all flopped. In 2008, Bangkok Dangerous won the weekend with an abysmal $7.7M. In 2007, 3:10 to Yuma, with mega-stars Russell Crowe and Christian Bale, won the weekend but only managed $14 million. In fact, the ONLY film in the last ten years that was able to top $15M on this particular weekend was The Transporter 2, which opened to $16.5M in 2005. Get the picture? The point is, studio can throw anything they want at the wall on this weekend, and the odds are fairly good that nothing will stick.

This does not mean, however, that there are no GOOD movies to be had on Labor Day weekend – hell, 3:10 to Yuma and The Transporter 2 were actually pretty good – but for game purposes, they tend to not be worth their price tag. On the one hand, it’s true that SOMETHING has to win the weekend (and since the Sep-Nov leagues are starting this week, that means that only this weekend’s films are counted as far as Top 5 and PTA points are concerned, which is a feature that previous years did not have), and this weekend’s films may indeed given you decent numbers in several categories. I just wouldn’t expect much in dollars grossed, is all. So if you only play the Box Office game, you might as well stop reading right now.

If any major studio had an A-list actor like George Clooney and a reputable director like Anton Corbijn (Control) teaming up for one of their projects, I would expect it to be slated for release on a very promising weekend. Focus Features, however, is not a major studio, and so The American winds up here in no-man’s land. Which is a shame, because this is a combo that, at least on paper, deserves better.

In this film, Clooney plays Jack, an assassin who is coming off a particularly nasty job in Sweden. He decides to lay low for a while in a quiet town in the Italian countryside, and ends up striking up relationships with a local priest (Paolo Bonacelli) and a beautiful young woman (Violante Placido). However, one in Jack’s line of “work” can never really take a vacation, and he takes an assignment where he must construct a weapon for a mysterious contact, Mathilde (Thekla Reuten). But will this latest assignment prove to be his last?

Though I haven’t enjoyed all of Clooney’s movies, I will say that for someone so famous, he is quite underrated as an actor. He brings an incredible gravitas to his dramatic roles, and I fully expect to enjoy The American. The question is: how many will be joining me? George has a pretty large fan base, and The American is rated R for “violence, sexual contact and nudity”. Though it’s being given a Wednesday release, I expect it to win the weekend, pulling in $23 million in its first five days ($14 million on Fri-Sun). It could clean up in Top 5 points as well: since Resident Evil: Afterlife is the only major film coming next week, and since dramas like this often tend to have decent legs, The American should drop to no lower than #2 next week. This means nine Top 5 points, two or three PTA, and a Rating in the 7’s. For $10 in the September Ultimate leagues, that’s pretty darn good, even though it may not make much more than $38 million overall. But for that same reason, I’d stay away from it in Box Office (where it costs $11). It’s only being shown in around 2,700 theaters.

The new film being given the widest release this weekend is Going the Distance, a romantic comedy from Warner Bros. (or, more specifically, the struggling New Line) starring real-life couple Drew Barrymore and Justin Long. It’s being directed by Nanette Burstein (American Teen), and it will be bowing in close to 3,000 theaters this Friday. Drew and Justin play Erin and Garrett, a young couple who decide not to break up despite the fact that Erin has to move from New York to San Francisco.

Basically, the film showcases Erin and Garrett’s struggles to keep their relationship afloat despite being separated by thousands of miles. Which is a decent-enough concept for a film, but the critics are lining up to bash the finished product (only 2/10 positive on RT so far). In a nutshell, they call the film “flat” and “not funny or insightful enough in offering an honest look at the perils of a long-distance relationship”. They agree that Drew does a decent (but not great) job, but the rest of the cast is lackluster, as is the script they had to work with.

Despite the wider release, I think Going the Distance will fall short of the #1 spot. Both The Switch and Eat Pray Love opened with less-than-impressive numbers, and I don’t think GTD will break that trend. This just isn’t the ideal time of year for rom-coms. I expect $13 million in its first three days, along with seven Top 5 points, two PTA and about $28 million. For $7 in Ultimate, that’s not bad, but you’ll also be inheriting a mediocre User Rating (currently at 6.1) with it. For $6 in Box Office, I’d save your dough for later on in the season.

Up third is Machete, which may be familiar to you if you partook of the 2007 Quentin Tarantino-Robert Rodriguez collaborative homage to drive-in B-movies, Grindhouse. If you remember, there were several fake trailers shown between the two directors’ respective segments, and one of those was Machete. It told the tale of a former Mexican “federale” (played by actor Danny Trejo, getting his first leading role at 66 years old, kudos) who roams around Texas looking for day-labor jobs.

After a showdown with a drug lord (Steven Seagal), a local businessman (Jeff Fahey) offers Machete $150,000 to kill a corrupt senator (Robert DeNiro) who is deporting hundreds of illegal immigrants. Of course, if you’ve seen the trailer, you’ll know that Machete gets double-crossed and made the poster boy for why illegal immigration is such a problem (a topic that hits pretty close to home, since I live in Arizona). And if you’ve seen the red-band trailer, you’ll know that what comes next is definitely not for the squeamish.

To be blunt, Machete probably has as much bloody violence and gore as any film this year (with the possible exception of Piranha 3D). It also has a quite impressive cast for something this conspicuously campy: in addition to DeNiro and Seagal, you also have Cheech Marin, Michelle Rodriguez, Don Johnson, Rose McGowan (wonder if she still has her machine-gun leg), Jessica Alba and… Lindsay Lohan?! (There’s also rumored to be yet another fake trailer attached to this film, so look for that; it includes Tim Roth and Sacha Baron Cohen.)

Gratuitous violence often plays in theaters, but I don’t expect it to this time. The latest outing from Rodriguez (I’m amazed how he can go back and forth between horrific violence and kids’ movies with such apparent ease) could easily become a cult classic, but I would be surprised if it made more than $25 million in theaters. For $10, you’ll only get five Top 5 points, one PTA and a User Rating that is anybody’s guess.

This week’s one limited-release film is My Dog Tulip, which, as far as I can tell, is debuting on only one screen this Wednesday in New York. It is an independent animated film based on the 1965 book by J.R. Ackerley, which tells the story of the author’s 14-year relationship with his beloved German shepherd.

On the one hand, the acting talent involved in this tiny film is impressive: Christopher Plummer plays Ackerley, and he is supported by veteran actresses Lynn Redgrave and Isabella Rossellini. On the other hand, however, this is not Pixar we’re talking about. The animation is primitive, almost neolithic by comparison, somewhere on the level of the old Peanuts TV specials from the 60’s. But since this isn’t a movie for kids, either, the quality of animation is not precisely the point.

At only $3, My Dog Tulip could easily bring in mounds of PTA points for the September leagues. I would be surprised if it didn’t win this weekend, and it could hang on for more points next weekend. It’s current Rating (6.5 with only 71 votes) could even go up. This is about the only title that I can wholeheartedly recommend for its price this week.


My predictions for the weekend of September 1-5, 2010:

1. The American - $14 million ($23 million 5-day)
2. Going the Distance - $13 million
3. Machete - $11 million
4. The Last Exorcism - $10 million
5. Takers - $8 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the technology of 3D gets pushed to a new level (or purports to, anyway) with Resident Evil: Afterlife, the fourth in the post-apocalyptic horror franchise with Milla Jovovich returning in the starring role. There will also be three new limited-release features, those being Logan, Bran Nue Dae and Legendary.

Later!

[numbersix]

Machete is tracking higher but I'm with you, people didn't flock to see Grindhouse, they won't flock to see this.

[Buscemi]

Machete probably should have stayed a straight-to-DVD release (which was the original plan but Fox wanted to make more money on their pickup).

I'll also say The American will be Number 1 this week. George Clooney and Focus opened Burn After Reading in September two years ago and it grossed $60 million domestic (and another $100 million internationally) so lightning could strike twice.

[Shrykespeare]

I'm going to see The American on Wednesday. I'm going to take note of how full the theater is.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I'll bet the whole shebang-a-bang that Going The Distance wins the weekend. Nobody even knows The American is coming out, or what the hell it is for that matter. The commercials and trailers tell you nothing, and just selling a movie on star power along and NO plot does not work (Seven Pounds comes to mind...). And the poster and non-descript title that tells you absolutely NOTHING is not going to help.

Whereas GTD has a great trailer that gets laughs every single time, a pretty funny cast, a simple and direct premise, and a field wide open for a rom-com to come sweep up a boatload of cash. There hasn't been a wide-reaching comedy since The Other Guys and Dinner For Schmucks and there's not been a romantic comedy since.....Sex & The City 2 (?!) (No, The Switch doesn't count because nobody saw that. More people paid to see Cats & Dogs 2 on OW than Aniston's latest crapfest.)

And I think Machete is as dead in the water as Grindhouse was.

[Buscemi]

Rotten Tomatoes ratings so far:

The American 71% (5/7)
Going The Distance 21% (5/16)
Machete no rating yet (0/1)

Also, I found out Zhang Yimou has a new movie opening this week (A Woman, A Gun and A Noodle Shop) that is a remake of the Coen Brothers' Blood Simple. Reviews haven't been good though (33% on Rotten Tomatoes).

[thswrestler160]

well the American is easily the most boring movie I've seen this year. I really hope GTD wins the weekend.

[Buscemi]

I hope it doesn't get the top spot. That would mean Jason Sudeikis and Rob Riggle (two of the worst actors I've ever seen and the comic relief in this movie) will get more work.

[Brockster]

So Shryke, how full was the theater yesterday?

[Shrykespeare]

Not very, but then, it was Wednesday at noon.

[Brockster]

early reports are showing it made 1.7M yesterday. not good.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I hope it doesn't get the top spot. That would mean Jason Sudeikis and Rob Riggle (two of the worst actors I've ever seen and the comic relief in this movie) will get more work.

I haven't seen Sudeikis in anything that I remember, but at least Riggle was funny in Step Brothers and The Hangover.

[Buscemi]

Sudeikis was the creepy stalker guy in The Bounty Hunter (that no one ever seems to notice despite it being extremely obvious that he's stalking Jennifer Aniston). Easily the worst thing in that awful movie.

And I forgot Riggle was in Step Brothers (he was the "POW!" guy, right?). But he was terrible in The Other Guys. I guess he's better at shouting singular words (and talking about eating your dick like he's Kobayashi) rather than actually acting.

[Buscemi]

early reports are showing it made 1.7M yesterday. not good.

It was still Number 1 for the day, beating Takers by $400,000.

[Buscemi]

Early Friday Numbers:

The American $4.1 million
Machete $3.3 million (its three-day will end up lower than Grindhouse's three-day unless in can get a very unlikely Saturday bump)
Going The Distance $2.2 million (you should have kept Devil in the full-year game, Banks)

Also, Going The Distance looks like it will have the worst opening ever for a R-rated movie opening in 3,000 theatres. The current holder of that distinction in Deuce Bigelow: European Gigolo, which opened with $9.6 million in 3,127 theatres on August 12th, 2005. Going The Distance will probably take in $6-7 million for the three-day in its 3,030 theatres. Its four-day is estimated at $9 million.