SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/27

[Shrykespeare]

This past weekend marked the lowest box office total since late April, with the Top Ten movies amassing only $108 million. The Expendables held on for a second straight victory despite a 53% drop, earning $16.5 million, which makes that the lowest total for a weekend-winning film since April 23-25, when How to Train Your Dragon reclaimed the #1 spot in its FIFTH week of release, earning a mere $15.3 million. Last year, August had Inglourious Basterds, Julie & Julia and District 9 to keep audiences interested, but 2010 doesn’t even seem to have that. Usually it’s not until September that we see such a box office swoon.

The first week of September is habitually one of the worst weekends of the year when it comes to box office potential, rivaling only the weekend following Thanksgiving. But with gore-fest Machete coming up, as well as the possibility of an actual quality film in The American, Labor Day weekend may actually see an unprecedented upswing. Because let’s face it, things are going to get much better this weekend, which will see the release of only two wide-release and one limited-release film. (Note: if you didn’t already know, the Justin Long/Drew Barrymore rom-com Going the Distance was recently pushed ahead one week, and will be opening next Friday.)

The last week in August unofficially begins the Fall Season, if only in the respect that it will begin a ten-week period that will see a glut of horror and horror-thriller movies. I count ten films coming between now and Halloween that will be given a wide (or nearly wide) release that fit that genre, including the just-added Case 39 (which in all likelihood will not be added to the game roster). The leadoff hitter for horror season is The Last Exorcism, which just happens to be co-produced by recent horror maven Eli Roth.

I will say this: for a genre that almost always features films with no-name actors and generally costs very little to create (relatively speaking), Roth is quite good at getting bang for his buck. His three major directorial projects (Cabin Fever and the two Hostel movies) grossed an average of $28 million, which turned those three movies a tidy profit. However, he is letting a relatively inexperienced director sit in the big chair for this one, that being the German-born Daniel Stamm.

The Last Exorcism centers on – and is told from the perspective of – an evangelical minister named Cotton Marcus (veteran TV actor Patrick Fabian), who after years of traveling the country performing exorcisms, has decided to get out of the game… but he agrees to participate in a documentary that will film his last endeavor at devil-chasing (hence the title). Cameraman in tow, he visits the farm of a man named Louis Sweetzer (Louis Herthum) whose daughter Nell (Ashley Bell) is in dire need of his services. Of course, this wouldn’t be a viable story if Marcus’s last venture didn’t turn out to be his most difficult one, would it? If you’ve seen the trailer, you’ll know that you can expect a lot of jump-out-at-you scares, shadowy menace and Nell’s body being twisted into some very unnatural angles.

I usually don’t expect much from low-budget horror movies, but this one just might be an exception. First of all, its price is rock-bottom low: in the August leagues, it’s only $6 (in both Ultimate and Box Office). Secondly, it’s being given a very decent release platform (over 2,700 theaters). And thirdly, well, its competition is so egregiously weak that a #1 finish for The Last Exorcism is fairly likely. I seriously doubt that any of the holdovers will earn more than $10 million this week, and I think that this film can manage $15 million in its first three days without much difficulty. Plus, it’s gotten good reviews so far (3/4 positive on RT) and it has a respectable User Rating (6.9 with over 300 votes). So for $6, you can pick up eight or nine Top 5 points, several PTA and a decent rating. What more could you ask for?

The other wide-release film this weekend is Takers, an oft-postponed heist movie from Sony Screen Gems. I will say this: what The Last Exorcism lacks in name recognition, Takers easily makes up for. The main characters alluded to in the title are a gang of bank robbers, consisting of: leader Gordon Jennings (Idris Elba), bagman John Rahway (Paul Walker), gunman Jake Attica (Michael Ealy) and his younger brother Jake (Chris Brown), and builder A.J. (Hayden Christensen).

The plot: the group gets pulled into one last job (isn’t it always the LAST job?) by a recently-paroled cohort (Tip “T.I.” Harris), who promises them the score of a lifetime. But this final score also draws the attention of a hard-boiled detective (Matt Dillon), who seeks to take the whole group down once and for all. Jay Hernandez and the increasingly-popular Zoe Saldana co-star.

I like a good heist movie as much as the next guy, but this ain’t exactly Ocean’s Eleven were talking about here. It seems like a better watch than last winter’s awful Armored (which also starred Dillon), but it’s only been advertised sparingly, and it’s only going to be shown in around 2,000 theaters, so I don’t expect much to come from it.

For $9 (in both leagues), I would stay the hell away from Takers. Yes, it has a good shot at #2 this weekend, but only because of the law of diminishing returns. $9 is not enough to spend for six Top 5 points, one or two PTA and a Rating around 6.0. This film will probably fare far better on DVD, so until someone invents a game for THAT, pass on Takers.

This Friday’s only limited-release film is Centurion, but just how limited, I’m afraid I can’t tell you at this time. As the title indicates, it is a swords-and-sandals combat movie set during the days of the Roman Empire. The film is set in the highlands of Scotland, whose inhabitants (known as Picts) are less than enthusiastic about having the Romans intruding on their territory. Using guerilla tactics, they ambush Roman patrols and outposts. One such massacre results in the capture of a single centurion, Quintus Dias (Inglourious Basterds’ Michael Fassbender).

Elsewhere, the Roman governor of Britannia dispatches the Ninth Legion, under General Titus Flavius Virilus (300’s Dominic West), and being assisted by a local guide, Etain (Quantum of Solace’s Olga Kurylenko). But the legion, too, falls under attack, and six survivors (along with Dias) must find a way to escape the hostile land with their lives, while being hunted by the ruthless Picts.

I like movies like this, but this seems a lot more like Pathfinder than 300. The fact that Centurion was directed by Neil Marshall (whose last film, Doomsday, was a complete crapfest) confirms that fact. I’ll probably view it on DVD, but that’s about all I can say to recommend it. It’ll run you $4 in the Ultimate leagues, but not knowing how many theaters it will be shown in, I can’t recommend it at this time. Its User Rating (6.5 with over 5,000 votes) is set in stone, so there’s that.

Since I’ve got some room, and since it’s that time, here is the list of my Top Ten Most Anticipated movies in the final four months of the year.

10. Saw 3D (10/29) – I’ve been doggedly following this series for seven years now. It was novel once, and I’ve admired how each installment has expanded the story somewhat. But if Saw VI demonstrated anything, it’s that this series NEEDS to end. The trailer seems to be intimating that this seventh chapter will indeed be the last one, and if that’s true, I’m anticipating that it will go out in spectacularly gory style.

9. Megamind (11/5) – I hate Will Ferrell, but the great thing about animation is that you can’t see the actors constantly mugging for the camera, and that often yields positive results (see: Jack Black in Kung Fu Panda). Megamind follows Despicable Me in that we see the world through the villain’s perspective, complete with a dashing hero (deliciously played by Brad Pitt) to constantly foil his dastardly schemes. Plus, it’s DreamWorks, and they’ve been on a roll the last few years.

8. Fair Game (11/5) – Director Doug Liman directed one of my favorite espionage thrillers (The Bourne Identity), and this based-on-true-events story - starring Naomi Watts as a CIA agent whose identity was made internationally public as a means to discredit her husband (Sean Penn) after he wrote a newspaper piece about the machinations of the Bush administration to engineer the takeover of Iraq – looks to be a truly riveting and well-acted tale.

7. Hereafter (10/22) – This could have been much higher, but as with Gran Torino and Invictus, Clint Eastwood has apparently decreed that a trailer for his latest directorial project not be shown until only a few scant weeks before the film’s release date. But it’s Eastwood, doing a supernatural thriller of all things, and it stars Matt Damon (again) and Bryce Dallas Howard, so I’m more than willing to give him the benefit of the doubt (again).

6. The Next Three Days (11/19) – Liam Neeson’s had a busy year, hasn’t he? In this, he plays a supporting role as a man who is sought out by a husband (Russell Crowe) who seeks to break his wife (Elizabeth Banks) out of prison after she is unjustly convicted of murder, and apparently all legal means to release her have been overturned. Paul Haggis (In the Valley of Elah) has some talent, so I’m hoping it will be just as exciting and even more intelligently written than Law Abiding Citizen.

5. Tangled (11/24) – Disney movies based on popular fairy tales have been popular for many decades, and their take on the story of Rapunzel is long overdue. Last year’s The Princess and the Frog was a huge success, and I’m hoping Tangled will be too… though I’m also hoping there won’t be an album’s worth of singing this time around. I love the irreverence that I saw in the trailer, and that’s all I need to see.

4. Unstoppable (11/12) – When Tony Scott pairs up with Denzel Washington, it usually results in a fair amount of action and a lot of adrenaline. I enjoyed Man on Fire, I loved Déjà Vu and I even somewhat liked The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 despite John Travolta’s OTT-ness. This film, which is basically Speed on a speeding train, looks quite exciting, even though we get Star Trek’s Chris Pine riding shotgun instead of Sandra Bullock.

3. Tron: Legacy (12/17) – I just recently watched the original Tron, and when you consider that it was made when computer technology was still in its infancy, it really was a remarkable achievement. A still-young Jeff Bridges, being digitized and sent into the bowels of a computer system, to do battle with a bevy of evil programs, was well ahead of its time. Three decades later, the story continues, and Bridges returns a much older man, in an age where computer effects have improved a billionfold. Can’t wait!

2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 (11/19) – After ten years, the beginning of the end has finally arrived. The final showdown between Harry (Daniel Radcliffe) and Voldemort (Ralph Fiennes) is imminent, and, for those of us who haven’t read the books, questions will finally be answered: who will live? Who will die? Who will end up with whom? It’s the most successful series of literary adaptations of all time, and I’ve loved just about every minute of it, so of course, I’ll be there on opening weekend.

1. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (12/10) – The reason that this is ahead of Harry Potter is simple: I’ve read these books, and have loved them since childhood. And I’ll tell those of you who were majorly disappointed in both the plot and box office flop of Prince Caspian: Voyage of the Dawn Treader is a much better story, both to read and to adapt to the big screen. Rather than being about conflict and power struggles, it’s about exploration, adventure and danger. The characters of Lucy (Georgie Henley) and Edmund (Skandar Keynes) are in the forefront this time, and I expect nothing less than perfection in this third (and perhaps final) installment of the Narnia series.

I will also be seeing, either in theaters or on DVD: The American, Machete, Resident Evil: Afterlife, Devil, Easy A, The Town, Legend of the Guardians: The Owl of Ga’Hoole, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, You Again, Buried, Freakonomics, Secretariat, Stone, Red, Inside Job, Conviction, Paranormal Activity 2, Monsters, Wild Target, Due Date, Morning Glory, Skyline, Faster, Love and Other Drugs, The Fighter, Gulliver’s Travels, True Grit, How Do You Know, and The Debt.

So those are my ten most-anticipated films of the final third of 2010. What are yours?

My predictions for the weekend of August 27-29, 2010:

1. The Last Exorcism - $15 million
2. Takers - $11 million
3. The Expendables - $8 million
4. Eat Pray Love - $6 million
5. The Other Guys - $6 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the calendar turns to September with four new movies being released both on Wednesday and Friday, including: The American, starring George Clooney as a hitman in Europe; Machete, Robert Rodriguez’s Grindhouse spin-off starring Danny Trejo as the most badass Mexican of all time; Going the Distance, with real-life couple Justin Long and Drew Barrymore experiencing the ups and downs of a long-distance relationship; and limited-release film My Dog Tulip.

Later!

[numbersix]

Agree about Last Exorcism, its combo of The Exorcist and Paranormal Activity may get horror fans into the theatres. Takers seems dead in the water and may do even worse. And I'm staying the hell away from Centurion.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I guess we'll have to wait until Resident Evil before we see an OW above $20M.

[Buscemi]

I'll go with The Last Exorcism to open Number 1 also. Running the trailer before The Expendables was a smart move.

Takers won't open past $6 million. Having Chris Brown and T.I. in the same movie killed any chance of success

As for Avatar: Special Edition: $4 million. Meanwhile, Flipped's wide run has been canceled due to disappointing numbers in regional release (which shows that Warner Bros. didn't even care about the movie).

[jas8382]

My Most Anticipated Movies for September-December
1. True Grit
2. Tron Legacy
3. The Social Network
4. Black Swan
5. Never Let Me Go
6. Due Date
7. It's Kind of a Funny Story
8. Machete
9. Buried
10. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1

[transformers2]

I like Takers over The Last Exorcisim this weekend. Takers has gotten a ton of ad's and I think the cast appeals to the younger crowd and it should gross 15 mill this weekend.

[Buscemi]

Ten Most Anticipated Movies September-December

1. 127 Hours
2. Tron: Legacy
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
4. True Grit
5. RED
6. Machete
7. Megamind
8. The Town
9. Legend Of The Guardians
10. Stone

Ten Least Anticipated Movies September-December

1. Burlesque
2. Love and Other Drugs
3. How Do You Know
4. Easy A
5. The Social Network
6. Catfish
7. Skyline
8. Life As We Know It
9. It's Kind Of A Funny Story
10. Never Let Me Go

[Donte77]

Can't think of ten offhand but

Tron
RED
Legend of the Guardians

Least
The Social Bore (Network)

[transformers2]

There are really not too many films I am excited for in the next few months. Here are the films I am most excited about over the September-December period.
1.Machete
2.Due Date
3.Jackass 3-D
4.The Town
5.Black Swan
6.Meet The Parents:Little Fockers
7.Red
8.Faster
9.The Fighter
10.Unstoppable

I am also excited for Devil (looks like a contender for Comedy of the year). Harry Potter,Buried and Megamind look pretty good as well.

The films to avoid at all costs for September/December:
The Social Network
Paranormal Activity 2
Tron:Legacy
Yogi Bear
Burlesque
Secretariat
My Soul To Take
Saw 3D
Morning Glory
Tangled
Chronicles Of Narnia:Voyage Of The Dawn Tender

[BanksIsDaFuture]

How can Tron:Legacy look like it should be avoided....?

[Buscemi]

My mother has no interest in Tron: Legacy. But then again, she doesn't really like sci-fi.

[transformers2]

How can Tron:Legacy look like it should be avoided....?

I think it looks stupid. I love sc-fi but I don't see the appeal in Tron. That list was only films that I am going to avoid clearly.

[Buscemi]

Did you even see the original?

[transformers2]

Did you even see the original?

I've seen most of it. I didn't really like it I found to be corny as hell and not in a good way.

[Buscemi]

Looks like the "critics like horror movies" curse is striking again. The Last Exorcism has a 69% on Rotten Tomatoes but has a C+ rating on Yahoo! (and getting lower apparently). So word of mouth isn't looking good on it.

Meanwhile, Takers only has a 28% on Rotten Tomatoes (what did you expect from a low-rent imitator of last year's Armored?) but has an A- rating on Yahoo! with similar votes. The weekend could be closer than expected (which disappoints me since Takers looked dumb and Sony chose to push it more than the movie that it's ripping off).