SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/20

[Shrykespeare]

Well, it would seem that I slightly overestimated the OW potential of all three new wide-release movies last week. But still, The Expendables handily won, largely on the huge, muscular backs of its cast. Eat Pray Love topped $23 million despite bad reviews, and Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, despite its terrific reviews and innovative premise, underwhelmed. Oh well, that's show biz.

On most baseball teams, from little leaguers all the way up to the bigs, the weaker hitters tend to find themselves at the bottom of the lineup. And if the summer movie season was a baseball lineup, we would definitely be approaching the pitcher's spot. We are wrapping up the summer in two weeks, folks. The big dogs have been released, the major studios have spent all their ammo, and only a few rounds of incidental fire remain. The six remaining wide-release films coming in the next fortnight have very little box-office potential (comparatively speaking), but the good news is, they are very affordable. And hey, even the weak weekends have to have winners, right?

There are five major films being released into over 1,500 theaters this Friday, which makes August 20th the most crowded weekend in a long time. The one getting the widest release of the five is Vampires Suck, the latest in a long, soul-sucking line of spoofs from directors Jason Friedberg and Aaron Seltzer, the two ass-clowns responsible for inflicting Epic Movie, Meet the Spartans and Disaster Movie on the cinematic world.

I'm sorry if you were counting on this film to boost your slates, but you will not find it available. The Italians and I made an executive decision to not include it, for the simple fact that to include it would encourage some of you to pick it. And trust me: you don't need it, or want it. If Disaster Movie proved anything, it's that Friedberg and Seltzer have worn out their welcome. And a Twilight spoof, while timely, can simply not be done well by them. There are funnier spoofs on YouTube, and you can see those for free. Vampires Suck may make $25 million or so, but it will have a User Rating between 1 and 2, and you don't need it siphoning the mojo from your slate. You'll thank me later.

The period of late August through late October is generally the period where you will find the most movies that fit in the horror genre. I count roughly eight titles that could be considered either horror or horror-thrillers coming between now and Halloween, and the first of those arrives this Friday in full-blown 3D. I am, of course, referring to Piranha 3D, which is platformed for roughly 2,500 theaters.

French director Alexandre Aja (High Tension, The Hills Have Eyes, Mirrors) is behind the camera for this remake of the 1978 film. It is set in the town of Lake Victoria, which is one of the most popular Spring Break locales in the country, during which time the local population increases tenfold. But when an underwater earthquake happens to crack open a chasm that had been sealed for millenia, it unleashes a swarm of flesh-eating piranha that wreak havoc on the visiting collegians.

If you've seen the trailer, you'll agree that it looks very much like the B-movie that the original was, and honestly, kudos to the creators for making it that way, because to do it any other way would probably not have a chance of working. The cast is full of B-list actors and actresses, including Jerry O'Connell, Elisabeth Shue, Dina Meyer and Ving Rhames, as well as crusty veterans Christopher Lloyd and Richard “This Was Not a Boating Accident!” Dreyfuss. There is even a cameo by director Eli Roth, whose next picture, The Last Exorcism (which he produced, not directed) opens next Friday.

Piranha 3D has been advertised fairly well, but “when animals attack” horror films aren't exactly “in” at the moment, so despite the 3D element, I don't think it has a chance to beat The Expendables for #1. I predict $15 million on its OW ($33 million overall), en route to four Top 5 points, maybe two PTA, and a low-to-middling User Rating. It will run you $9 in either August league, and I don't think it's worth it at all.

In January 2006, Nanny McPhee did fairly well, opening to $14.5 million on its way to $47 million overall. Now, 4 ½ years later, Nanny McPhee Returns hit theaters, and once again, British actress Emma Thompson plays the titular role. The film – which is called Nanny McPhee and the Big Bang outside the U.S. and Canada – also stars Ralph Fiennes, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Ewen MacGregor and Harry Potter's Maggie Smith.

The main character is Isabel Green (Gyllenhaal), who is at her wits end by trying to keep her family's farm afloat while juggling a job at the local village store and being mother to three kids. The trouble gets worse when the kids rich, bratty cousins arrive for a visit, and lines are drawn. Help arrives in the form of Nanny McPhee, who, if you haven't seen, looks like Mary Poppins' hideously ugly sister. Using her no-nonsense approach and a bit of magic, she teaches the kids to behave properly and work together to save the family homestead.

Critics have adored this movie so far (28/31 positive at RT), but this looks like one of those family films that probably plays better overseas. In the U.S., it has the advantage of being the first pure kids' film since the disastrous Cats & Dogs sequel, and probably the only one that parents can take their children to until Alpha & Omega opens one month from now. It's slated for more than 2,600 theaters, so for $6 in Ultimate ($7 in Box Office), you might pick up a few Top 5 points and possible a few PTA. It's tough to gauge kids' movies, so it could conceivably open anywhere between #1 and #4, depending on how well The Expendables holds. Anything opening this weekend is a crap shoot, but I wouldn't chance it.

Up next is Lottery Ticket, a largely African-American film from Warner Bros. It stars rapper/actor Bow Wow as Kevin Carson, a young man living in the projects, who wins $370 million in a nationwide lottery. And though he tries to keep that fact a secret, soon every opportunist and thug in the neighborhood is pounding on his door. Yeah, I can see how that would suck.

This film, too, stars a plethora of recognizable African-American actors, including Ice Cube, Keith David, Loretta Devine, Mike Epps, Terry Crews, Bill Bellamy, Brandon T. Jackson and Chris Williams. It's not as stellar a cast as April's Death at a Funeral, but it looks like a decent feel-good movie with some humor thrown in.

It's only $6 in both leagues, but I wouldn't take it in Ultimate. For the simple fact that there's too much going on this weekend. It won't get more than one or two Top 5 points at the most, and, like most African-American movies, the User Rating will probably suck (not as much as Vampires Suck will suck, but still not enough that you want it). It might be a good pick in Box Office, however.

Last among the wide-release films this week is The Switch, the latest from rapidly-fading studio Miramax. It is a romantic comedy starring Jennifer Aniston (who is also one of the executive producers) as New Yorker Kassie, who decides that she wants to have a baby via artificial insemination. She does so against the advice of the neurotic Wally (Jason Bateman), who has had chance after chance to make his move on Kassie but has remained in the “friend zone” for years. But tragedy strikes when, during Kassie's “insemination party” (bet those are fun!), Wally gets drunk and spills the semen sample that was destined for Kassie's uterus. Thinking fast, he decides to substitute his own, and... Fast forward to seven years later, when Kassie returns to New York, with her (neurotic) son Sebastian in tow. Wally immediately forms a bond with mini-Wally, and the truth must eventually come out. But things aren't ever that simple.

It seems like a cute story, but its meager release platform (1,700 theaters) and advertising campaign pretty much make this a non-starter. I don't foresee any Top 5 points at all, and even for $5 in Box Office, it would take a Herculean effort to make the bucks worth its purchase price. Pass.

And now, a little bit about this weekend's three limited-release films:

The Tillman Story ($4 Ult) – This one hits me close to home. Being an Arizonan, I'm very familiar with the story of Pat Tillman. He was a standout linebacker for Arizona State University before joining the Arizona Cardinals, where he played for three years before he decided to leave it all behind and pursue a career in the military. He joined the Army Rangers in 2002, and served multiple tours in combat before being mysteriously killed by “friendly fire” in Afghanistan in April of 2004.

The Tillman Story purports to tell not only the story of Tillman's childhood and football career, but also the “untold” story behind the ACTUAL circumstances of Tillman's death, which turned out to be that he was mistakenly killed by American snipers, as well as the steps the government took to cover that fact up. Not exactly recruiting-poster stuff, is it?

BOM has The Tillman Story opening in four theaters this Friday. It's been a critical darling (12/13 positive on RT, 8.2 Rating with 54 votes on IMDb), and it's a shoe-in for PTA, so you really can't go wrong by picking this.

Mao's Last Dancer ($3 Ult) – This is a biopic from director Bruce Beresford (Driving Miss Daisy). It tells the story of Li Cunxin (Chi Cao), a man living in Communist China who had been trained from childhood to be a dancer. His prodigious talent is noticed by a visiting American ballet director (Bruce Greenwood), who offers him a chance to come to the U.S. as an exchange student.

In America, Li comes to appreciate the freedom he never had before, and even begins to fall for an American girl (Amanda Schull). But Li's story draws international headlines when he must decide between his own life and career and the possible repercussions for his family back in China should he decide to defect to America.

The film's official site has it opening this Friday in 29 locations, which teeters on the brink of PTA possibilities. It too, has a very good rating (7.2 on nearly 1,000 votes), so it's not a bad pick for only $3, but it's a much less of a sure bet than The Tillman Story is.

Down Terrace ($2 Ult) – The second film in as many weeks where the main characters are from a “crime family”. But unlike Animal Kingdom, Down Terrace seems to have less going for it: a lesser cast, a lesser director, and less fanfare. The plot: after serving time for a mysterious crime, brothers Bill and Karl (Robin and Robert Hill) return home and try to discover who ratted them out to the police. But the thing about crime families is that trust is often an issue to begin with, and the gang of crooks that operate out of the area known as “Down Terrace” shows signs of splintering.

I can't find an official site for this film, and BOM doesn't say just how many screens this film will be showing on. My best advice is to only pick this film if you have $2 left unspent on your roster. It's got a decent Rating (6.9, but with only 61 votes), so there's that, and who knows? Perhaps it will surprise the way Cairo Time did.


My predictions for the weekend of August 20-27, 2010:

1. The Expendables - $18 million
2. Piranha 3D - $15 million
3. Nanny McPhee Returns - $14 million
4. Eat Pray Love - $13 million
5. Lottery Ticket - $11 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, only three movies are on tap as the June-August leagues come to a conclusion: the much-postponed Takers, a heist movie starring Paul Walker, Matt Dillon and Idris Elba; The Last Exorcism, a possessed-by-the-devil horror film produced by Eli Roth; and Centurion, a swords-and-sandals epic starring Michael Fassbender and Dominic West.

Later!

[Buscemi]

I'll say:

Piranha 3-D $13 million (this has been delayed a million times and I haven't seen many ads for it, it seems more like it will do better on DVD)
Nanny McPhee Returns $11 million (reviews have been good but I haven't seen much promotion)
Lottery Ticket $9 million (tracking has been good but the trailers seem to give the whole movie away, it doesn't help that said trailers seem to be showing before everything)
Vampires Suck $5 million (the trailer got lots of hits but so did the Jennifer's Body trailer and we all know how that did)
The Switch $4 million (looks like Disney will simply dump this one, also I think the artificial insemination comedy has run its course)

[numbersix]

I'm surprised that The Switch is looking so bad. I mean out of all of the films being released this week it has the biggest stars. To be honest I'm stumped about this weekend, but I guess Pirhana 3D will beat the rest. Everything else is up to the gods.

[Buscemi]

The problem with The Switch is that Disney waited so long to release it. Had it been out before The Back-Up Plan and The Kids Are All Right, it would have had a chance. But now, its premise is nothing more than "been there, seen that".

Also, it has probably the worst poster of 2010.



Seriously, what is Jennifer Aniston gasping at? And I can't begin to explain the look on Jason Bateman's face.

[Donte77]

"I think that should be enough sperm." (said in a smarmy Jason Bateman voice)

[Donte77]

I'm sorry if you were counting on this film to boost your slates, but you will not find it available. The Italians and I made an executive decision to not include it, for the simple fact that to include it would encourage some of you to pick it.

I love that fact that we are even boycotting their films in fantasy game land. LOL Next thing we do is start collecting money to put out a hit on them.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Whole bunch of shit coming out this week...

Out of everything, I'd say The Switch would come out on top, but I've seen promo for Piranha 3D everywhere.

But I don't think any of these movies will break into the Top 3 anyway.

[Shrykespeare]

By the way, the themes for the Sep-Nov Regulars leagues have been announced.

For Ultimate, Hartigan chose Jason Robards.
For Box Office, Graywolf chose "Austin Powers".

[Buscemi]

Vampires Suck opened to $4 million on Wednesday. However, word of mouth is weak (as expected) so it should drop quickly.

[transformers2]

I am going to say that Piranha opens the best of the new releases. I have been seeing a shitload of ad's for it. Lottery Ticket and Nanny Mcphee should do ok as well.

[Buscemi]

And the best reviews of the week go to....

Piranha 3-D.

I guess the For Your Consideration ad worked.

Current Rotten Tomatoes ratings:

Piranha 3-D 82%
Nanny McPhee Returns 76% (US critics don't like it as much as the UK critics)
The Switch 54%
Lottery Ticket 29%
Vampires Suck 6%

[Shrykespeare]

This just in: Toy Story 3 has officially passed Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen in total domestic gross, and has now entered the Top 10 of all time. It only needs $1.5 million to pass the original Spider-Man for #9. It probably will go no higher than that, however, as it would need another $20 million to pass the second POTC movie.

[Shrykespeare]

Announcement: I have created the Regulars Leagues for September:

Ultimate - Jason Robards
Box Office - Austin Powers

Anyone may enter these leagues right now.

I've also created the Super Leagues for September, but I'm going to wait until this weekend's standings have been posted before I start sending out e-mails.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

The Expendables, $4.95M
Vampires Suck, $4.425M
Lottery Ticket, $3.86M
Eat Pray Love, $3.75M
Piranha 3D, $3.6M
The Other Guys, $3M
The Switch, $2.7M
Nanny McPhee Returns, $2.69M
Inception, $2.155M
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, $1.625M

What a logjam.

[Brockster]

A log jam of complete turds...get it..."log"..."turd"

I'll be here all weekend folks, please make sure to tip your waitress