SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/13

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/13

Post by Shrykespeare »

The Other Guys finally ended Inception's three-week reign at the top, pulling in $35 million in its first three days this past weekend, marking another almost certain blockbuster for Will Ferrell and Adam McKay. But I have to give kudos to Despicable Me, which has turned out to have incredible legs; it has crossed not only the $200 million barrier, but is now one of the 100 highest-grossing films of all time. "It's so fluffy!!" (Meanwhile, Toy Story 3 is only $4 million shy of the venerable $400 million mark, which would make it the 11th film in history to do so.)

The moment is nearly at hand, my fellow action-movie junkies. The moment we've all been waiting for. The release date for the most awesome collection of action (and former action) stars assembled on-screen at the same time is upon us. The Expendables is now but a few short days away, and I fully expect that even those of you out there who are NOT fans of the genre to start admitting that what Sylvester Stallone has done is make one of the most kick-ass movies possible.

The primary cast of this film has well over 100 combined action flicks under its belt, from straight-to-DVD forgettable fare to nine-digit-budgeted explosion-thons. Some names are bigger than others, of course, but most of them are household names: Jason Statham (The Transporter). Jet Li (Fearless). Dolph Lundgren (Universal Soldier). Terry Crews (Terminator: Salvation). “Stone Cold” Steve Austin (The Condemned). And then, throw in UFC champion Randy Couture and recent resurgent star Mickey Rourke (Iron Man 2), and you've got one whale of a team, led by Stallone (Rocky, Rambo) himself, who not only stars, but also directed and co-wrote the screenplay. But, wait, there's more...

For those of you who don't know (if such a person exists), The Expendables are a paramilitary team of mercenaries, led by Barney Ross (Stallone) and his second-in-command, Lee Christmas (Statham). The team (love the cheesy character names) consists of Yin Yang (Li), Gunnar Jensen (Lundgren), Hale Caesar (Crews) and Toll Road (Couture). Rourke plays Tool, a former member of the team who now works as an arms dealer.

But the icing on this very macho cake comes in the form of Bruce Willis and Arnold Schwarzenegger, Stallone's longtime friends who helped him (along with Demi Moore) co-found Planet Hollywood nearly two decades ago. Though they only appear in cameos, just the notion of having arguably the three most famous, successful and prolific actions stars of the last thirty years on screen at the same time is too tantalizing a proposition to miss. In fact, Willis's character, Mr. Church, the man who hires The Expendables to help overthrow a ruthless South American dictator, may have a very central part in the film, even though he probably doesn't get much screen time (and he and Ah-nuld may not even appear in the credits).

This movie has so much going for it. First of all, the opinions of professional critics, who have already started lining up to bash this film, are quite likely to fall on ears long since deafened by countless hours of movie gunplay. Even the plot is fairly irrelevant to get people through the door... since this is the single most impressive cast any film since the Ocean's Integers films has had, one can only hope that Sly has formulated a semi-coherent story to go with it.

In the August Leagues, The Expendables will run you $18 in Ultimate ($19 in Box Office). Given the extremely weak competition coming in the next few weeks, this film could be in the Top 5 for a while. I fully expend no fewer than twelve Top 5 points, along with at least four PTA. It currently has a Rating of 8.8 on IMDb with over 1,700 votes (probably action fans jumping the gun in anticipation), so rest assured, this film will probably not dip much below 8.0.

BOM has The Expendables bowing in over 3,000 theaters, and I fully expect an opening weekend of at least $40 million, and could go as high as $50 million. Granted, it may be susceptible to Twilight-level fallout in upcoming weeks, but given that there won't be any balls-out action fare until early September, I don't think that will happen. In all, I envision $130 million for this film, and I hope that if a sequel is planned, they can convince Van Damme and Seagal to join the fun. (Well, I can dream, can't I?)

Countering all that machismo, testosterone and high explosives is Eat Pray Love, a film based on the best-selling memoir by Elizabeth Gilbert. And when I say best-selling, I mean it: it has spent over three years on the New York Times Best Seller list, and sold many millions of copies. It has been a favorite of women of all ages since its release, including Oprah Winfrey, who devoted two entire episodes two it. High praise indeed.

Columbia Pictures and Plan B Entertainment (Brad Pitt's production company) are behind the big-screen adaptation, which stars Julia Roberts as Gilbert. Roberts, now 42, has been steadily getting back to work since given birth to her third child in 2007, having recently appeared in films such as Charlie Wilson's War, Duplicity and Valentine's Day. But one could argue that Eat Pray Love is the first film she'll have to carry on her own since Erin Brockovich (for which she won a Best Actress Oscar in 2000).

The story: Roberts plays Gilbert, a writer who, though successful, is extremely unhappy with her home life. When her marriage ends with a bitter and painful divorce, she comes to the realization that she hasn't had any meaningful time to herself since she was a teenager, and decides to take a year to travel the world to find... I'm not sure. Adventure, clarity, meaning, whatever she can find. (Specifically, she goes to Italy, India and Bali, which I'm certain means that viewers will be treated to many different shots of exotic locales and panoramic landscapes.) The supporting cast is chock full of many Oscar-nominated actors as well, including Javier Bardem, Richard Jenkins, and Viola Davis, as well as Billy Crudup and James Franco.

The big question is: can a film do diametrically opposite of The Expendables prosper? Just ask Mamma Mia!, which racked up $144 million while going toe-to-toe with The Dark Knight. I don't expect Eat Pray Love to do THAT well, but Julie & Julia came very close to $100 million last August, and as this is the last full-scale chick-flick of the summer, I think it will do quite well.

$15 is the price tag for Eat Pray Love in both August leagues. Though I don't expect it to beat The Expendables for #1, I think it has a very good chance to beat The Other Guys' second week for #2. In all, I predict $26 million for Eat Pray Love's first three days ($84 million total), along with eight Top 5 points, three PTA and a rating in the 7's. As long as the IMDb Haters Club doesn't line up to bash Julia Roberts the way they do Tyler Perry, this could be a very worthy pick.

This has been a year for comic-book adaptations, and I'm not just talking about Iron Man 2. We've already been treated to Kick-Ass and The Losers this year, and can look forward to Red in October. But for now we have Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, which is based on the six-issue digest-sized series written by Bryan O'Malley. The first issue came out in 2004, and planning for the movie version ostensibly started shortly thereafter.

This movie was filmed (and is set) in Toronto, and centers on 22-year-old Scott Pilgrim (Michael Cera, donning his lovestruck puppy suit again), who plays bass guitar for a band called Sex Bob-omb. He meets – and becomes instantaneously smitten with – a girl named Ramona Flowers (Mary Elizabeth Winstead), and that's when the fun begins. Winning Ramona's heart, you see, comes with a fair amount of danger, in the form of her seven evil exes (one of whom, weirdly enough, is a girl), whom Scott must defeat in a no-holds-barred battle royale before he can call her his own.

Director Edgar Wright (Shaun of the Dead, Hot Fuzz) has assembled a pretty cool cast for this one, including Cera, Winstead, Kieran Culkin and Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air). The League of Evil Exes includes Jason Schwartzman (Funny People) and a couple of guys for whom playing roles involving superhuman abilities is nothing new: Brandon Routh (Superman Returns) and Chris Evans (Fantastic Four, Push). But more noticeable than the cast is the film's production, which, if you've seen the trailer, looks like a combination of video-game special effects and cheesy comic-book violence (complete with the on-screen “Kapows!”)

The reviews for Scott Pilgrim have been mostly favorable (14/17 positive at RT), and most agree that this is definitely a film for younger viewers. It's ADD and OTT, two things that movie lovers in their teens and early twenties can appreciate and relate to. Older viewers may bypass is (not including myself), but I think it has the potential to become a cult hit.

It's only coming out in 2,600 or so theaters, however, and honestly, I can't give it my recommendation in Ultimate leagues, even for only $10. It does have a great rating so far (7.5 with nearly 1,000 votes), but even it comes up with $16 million on its OW, that will still probably only be good enough for #4. All in all, I predict two Top 5 points, one or two PTA at most, and $43 million in total take. It may be worth it in Box Office (also for $10), but that's about it.

And now, a little bit about this weekend's two limited-release films:

Tales From Earthsea ($4 Ult) – This animated film is the latest from the Japanese Studio Ghibli, which put out highly-acclaimed films like Princess Mononoko, Spirited Away and Howl's Moving Castle. These films were all created by Hayao Miyazaki, who is considered the most prominent anime film director of all time. Tales From Earthsea is the first project for Hayao's son, Goro.

I'm at a loss to try to explain the plot, but it involves sorcery and dragons. The voice cast (for the English version) includes Willem Dafoe, Timothy Dalton, Mariska Hargitay and Cheech Marin. Reviews have been split at RT (8/15 positive), but most critics agree that this is Studio Ghibli's weakest movie in years.

The news isn't all bad, however. Actually, it has a very good shot at some PTA, given that BOM says that Earthsea will be showing in only five locations this weekend. That is a far cry from the nearly 1,000 locations that debuted last year's Ponyo, causing it to be a dud in pretty much every category. The name Miyazaki still does have some cred, and its current Rating (6.5 with over 4,000 votes) won't hamstring you too badly, so this choice has a chance to be a better pick than Ponyo ever was, despite what the critics are saying.

Animal Kingdom ($3 Ult) – You are ten times more likely, on the other hand, to get more mileage out of this film. It has a minimal number of screens showing it (in NY and LA), an even better rating (8.5 with 725 votes), and the critics are over the moon for it (24/25 positive at RT). Plus, it's only $3, so unless you are hell-bent on filling your entire roster with wide-release films (and you can certainly do that this season), you may want to consider sacrificing quantity for quality in this case. Why? Well, it won the Grand Jury Prize at Sundance, for example.

Animal Kingdom is an Australian crime drama set in the vicious underworld of Melbourne, and is loosely inspired by a series of police shootings that occurred there in 1988. It centers on brothers Darren (Luke Ford), Craig (Sullivan Stapleton) and Andrew (Ben Mendelsohn), as well as their close friend Barry (Joel Edgerton). They welcome their nephew Joshua (James Frecheville) into the fold, teaching him the ins and outs of the brutal life of a crime family. But when Joshua comes under pressure from a local detective (Guy Pearce), he can sense the family demographic starting to collapse around him.

Critics have called Animal Kingdom “slow-boiling”, “expertly written” and “the best film to come out of Australia in years”. It currently has a whopping 8.5 Rating (with over 700 votes), and seems to have every hallmark of a great PTA source, something you might not find many of in the next few months. For $3, you could clean up, if can stomach the idea of having a few dollars left unspent on your roster.


My predictions for the weekend of August 13-15, 2010:

1. The Expendables - $43 million
2. Eat Pray Love - $26 million
3. The Other Guys - $18 million
4. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World - $16 million
5. Inception - $13 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we begin our descent into the mediocrity of autumn, starting with four new wide-release films of dubious prospects: B-horror-movie Piranha 3D, kiddie sequel Nanny McPhee Returns, African-American comedy Lottery Ticket, and low-grade rom-com The Switch. There will also be three limited-release films: The Tillman Story, Mao's Last Dancer and Down Terrace. (And if I have room, I'll save some room to bash Vampires Suck. It's not included in the game, but it'll still be lots of fun to trash it.)

Later!






Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/13

Post by Buscemi »

I'll go with...

The Expendables $41 million
Eat, Pray, Love $25 million
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World $10 million (it's nothing more than The Spirit with good reviews)
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/13

Post by numbersix »

Finally, something we can disagree about to generate debate! I think you're totally overestimating The Expendables. Tracking hasn't been great (even suggesting as low as early 20's for its OW). Which tracking isn't an exact science, this does make sense. The Expendables is an homage to the old style of action movies from the 80's and 90's. And while there is appeal, is there enough? I doubt it.

1. Eat Pray Love - $29 million
2. The Expendables - $27 million
3. The Other Guys - $15 million (a large drop as its audience will be taken by Expendables and Scott Pilgrim)
4. Inception - $13 million
5. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World - $12 million

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/13

Post by Buscemi »

Deadline was saying $30-40 million on The Expendables.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/13

Post by numbersix »

Correction: Deadline was saying 30-40 because of tracking figures quoted from Sly Stallone himself. I think it's safe to disregard that ;)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/13

Post by undeadmonkey »

Honestly, id be surprised if Expendables opened over $22M

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/13

Post by Buscemi »

But you think Easy A will be a blockbuster.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/13

Post by undeadmonkey »

It could be. Expendables has one set audience, everyone who is interested was from the moment it was announced. It hasn't and wont get any other audience than the action junkie crowd or should i say bad action junkie crowd. I love an action movie just as much as anyone else and i'll proabably see Expendables, but on dvd. Easy A might just be a chick flick which would just attract the high school girls, but it has a chance to be a more than 1 quadrant film. Think Mean Girls. Just because you don't like Emma Stone doesn't mean it will flop. Like me, you have been playing this game a long time, so you know there are no sure things when it comes to box office. I'm not saying Easy A will be a blockbuster, all i'm saying is it has much more of a chance.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/13

Post by Buscemi »

Easy A isn't Mean Girls. Mean Girls actually had a few drawing points when it was released (Lindsay Lohan when she could still sell a movie and Tina Fey). Easy A has no drawing points. It stars an actress who's most notable role was being headbutted by Jonah Hill (and has been useless in pretty much everything else) and contains actors who either haven't done much (Cam Gigandet) or actors who've seen better days (Amanda Bynes and Malcolm McDowell). The director's only other film was Fired Up and modern-day adaptations of classic stories aren't very successful (the most successful I can think of in recent memory are She's The Man and A Cinderella Story and neither of those were huge by any means) Also, Screen Gems is opening Resident Evil: Nemesis a week earlier and will easily spend more time and money promoting it. Hell, I could see Devil beating this on opening weekend.

As for women, they'll end up waiting for You Again a week later. At least that has proven names and wider appeal.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/13

Post by undeadmonkey »

true, all your points are just as valid as mine

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/13

Post by thswrestler160 »

most of the time when I see the trailer for easy A it gets a very positive reaction I see it performing closer to house bunny than mean girls

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/13

Post by numbersix »

Latest tracking has seen Expendables get a boost and may open to early 30's now. Scott Pilgrim is looking like it'll open to about 11, and EPL in the mid 20's.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/13

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

So far, apparently The Expendables sucks. Which is not really that surprising.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/13

Post by numbersix »

Not surprising at all. But it's at 50% on RT along the lines of Dinner for Schmucks, which proves that good reviews and (somewhat) success don't go hand in hand

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/13

Post by Buscemi »

The Expendables is critic-proof, pretty much. Most action films are.
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