SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/6

[Shrykespeare]

Inception hangs on for its third straight weekend victory, just barely outdistancing Steve Carell's Dinner For Schmucks. It would seem to be on track for roughly $250 million, which is, I think you'll agree, quite impressive considering the very cerebral premise for the movie. With the possible exception of Toy Story 3 (which will also probably end up being the #1 movie of 2010), it also has the honor of being the best-reviewed movie of the summer. Well done, Mr. Nolan.

August gets underway this Friday, so perhaps its time to briefly go over just what that means. Perhaps most importantly, it starts a three-month stretch of filmdom that is generally the least impressive, results-wise, when compared to the rest of the year. I mean, think about it: if you had to list the months that usually harbor the most potential blockbusters, how would you do so? Probably May, July, November, December and March, give or take. But the stretch of August, September and October, though not totally devoid of entertainment, is a period where you'll probably find very no titles likely to crack $200 million. The hits of August 2009 were: G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra ($150M), District 9 ($115M), Inglourious Basterds ($120M), and, to a lesser extent, Julie & Julia ($94M). I see only three titles in August 2010 with even a shot at nine digits, and the first of those is The Other Guys.

It has always been that certain directors have had excellent working relationships with certain actors. One could certainly make that case for Tim Burton and Johnny Depp. Comedically, that also might apply to Dennis Dugan and Adam Sandler. But you could also make the case that a profitable working relationship does indeed exist between director Adam McKay and actor/comedian Will Ferrell. The duo have teamed up three times in the past decade, and each collaboration has been a hit: Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy pulled in a respectable $85 million in 2004, Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby raced to $148 million domestically in 2006, and Step Brothers earned just over $100 million in 2008. And since 2010 is an even-numbered year, the pair are back together again.

The Other Guys would also, on its surface, seem to involve quite a bit more action than the above-mentioned films, as certainly evidenced by its supporting cast (Mark Wahlberg, Dwayne Johnson and Samuel L. Jackson). The premise: the two most famous and well-respected supercops of the NYPD are Highsmith and Danson (Jackson and Johnson). They get the exciting police work, the high-profile collars, and all of the accolades that come along with it.

A little – actually, make that a lot – further down the food chain is Det. Gamble (Ferrell), a cop whose career has been largely in the field of forensic accounting, preferring to spend his days analyzing paperwork instead of going into the field. He is partnered with Det. Hoitz (Wahlberg), who has been exiled to desk duty following an embarrassing accidental shooting. But, as things must in films like this, the two desk jockeys cook up a way to make a name for themselves, and, of course, things don't go QUITE as planned. Michael Keaton, Steve Coogan, Eva Mendes and (brace yourselves) Paris Hilton co-star.

This would normally be the kind of film I would gleefully watch, except for the fact that Will Ferrell is in it. I grew weary of his shtick a long time ago, and I've barely liked any part of any of his films where McKay was behind the camera. I do respect his supporting cast in The Other Guys (I even like Paris better than him), but not enough for me to want to see it. Based on the trailer, it looks like more of Ferrell playing the same character he always does: clueless, obnoxious and overweening. If I have to see a Ferrell movie, I'll wait for Megamind, when at least I don't have to look at him.

But don't go by me. If The Mummy 3 and G.I. Joe can make $100 million, this one certainly can. It's going to be shown in over 3,500 theaters, so I will go ahead an predict a $36 million opening for The Other Guys, on its way to ten or eleven Top 5 points, two PTA, a rating around 6.3 and around $108 million. Because of the way the August-September leagues are priced, you can fit just about any eight films you want onto your slate. The Other Guys will cost you $17 in Ultimate, $19 in Box Office, and I would say that it's practically a must-have if you want to get off to a good start in those leagues.

Some movies just scream to be made into 3D. Some are planned as 3D projects from the get-go, others are converted to 3D after the fact (and usually is the lesser experience for it). But here's something that I bet you never thought you'd see. A street-dance movie... in 3D. Yeah, I know, I'm still trying to wrap my head around the reasoning behind it. But more on that in a bit. For now, know that Step Up 3D will be hip-hopping into theaters this Friday, following the original Step Up from 2006 ($65M) and Step Up 2 The Streets from 2008 ($58M).

It's interesting... I happen to love the TV show So You Think You Can Dance, which usually graces the summer lineup on FOX. The dancers are raw and very talented, and working with the best choreographers in the business, they are taught how to tell stories through dance. The reason I'm not a fan of dance-related movies – like, AT ALL - is not because the dancing is sub-par, but because, given the chance, most dancers couldn't ACT if their lives depended on it. And besides that: most “dance crew” movies are the same: a bunch of directionless youths discover dance as a means of expression, and through dance and friendship bond with each other to prove themselves champions in some sort of competition, the end.

Director John Chu (who also helmed Step Up 2) has brought together a group of mostly unknown actors, including Rick Malambri, Adam Sevani, Sharni Vinson, Alyson Stoner (reprising her character from the first Step Up), and even SYTYCD's own Stephen “tWitch” Boss, who is one of the best hip-hop dancers that show ever produced. Still doesn't mean that I want to see the film, though.

I know that every film and its sequel is being adapted to 3D formats these days, but this decision just baffles me. What's the point, exactly? To have the viewer, who is sitting down, feel like they're in the middle of the action? I just don't see the appeal... at least Piranha 3D, coming in a few more weeks, makes a little more sense. I'll predict $43 million total for Step Up 3D, along with two Top 5 points, maybe one or two PTA, and a terrible Rating (it's currently at 4.5 with over 400 votes). For $11 in Ultimate ($12 in Box Office), it's simply not worth it.

And now, a little bit about this weekend's of plethora limited-release films. Just something to keep in mind, strategically. Because of the cheapness of the August leagues' films, you may be inclined to fill your roster with more expensive movies, just to try to get the most bang for your buck. Remember, though: just because you CAN put eight wide-release films on your Ultimate slates doesn't mean you HAVE to. Most big movies will get you a few PTA, but that doesn't mean that a good limited-release film can punch up your stats in both the PTA and User Rating categories. You'll sacrifice some dollars earned, but it's finding the right balance that usually makes a winner.

Flipped ($5 Ult) – Veteran director Rob Reiner (Sleepless in Seattle, The Bucket List) brings us this coming-of-age story of young love in the 1950s. Julianne (played by up-and-coming young actress Madeline Carroll) has had the hots for classmate/neighbor Bryce (Callan McAuliffe) since their first meeting, but Bryce has always kept her at arm's length – not only because they are complete opposites, but because he's got some girl-phobic issues. But as the story follows these two youngsters from grade school to high school, Bryce begins to wonder his feelings for the persistent Juli start changing... The supporting cast includes Anthony Edwards, Rebecca de Mornay, Aidan Quinn, Penelope Ann Miller and John Mahoney.

Since this is the first week of the month, that means that five of the movies being released on Friday are guaranteed to glean at least one PTA point. I want very much to recommend Flipped for your roster as this week's possible PTA champ, but I'm missing quite a few variables. First of all, I have no idea whatsoever how big the release platform will be, and second, there are no official reviews in the can at RT at the present moment. Rob Reiner is usually a pretty reliable draw, however, and the supporting cast is terrific, but I won't argue that picking this might be a gamble.

Middle Men ($4 Ult) – This films tells the story of Jack Harris (Luke Wilson) who, in 1995, creates a billing company for the new phenomenon called the Internet, making adult entertainment available to anyone on the Web... for a price. Since this was fertile ground for such entrepreneurial endeavors, the money rolled in in the millions, but along with that came a boatload of other problems, including Russian mobsters, federal investigators and even international terrorists. Well, you reap what you sow...

Director George Gallo (Homeland Security) has brought together an interesting cast, which includes Giovanni Ribisi, James Caan, Kevin Pollak, Terry Crews, Kelsey Grammer and Gabriel Macht. And the two reviews that I've read (both from reputable critics) have both been positive, which means that you can probably expect a Rating no lower than 6.4. However, BOM has Middle Men opening in around 200 locations, which rather puts it in that no-man's-land that pretty much precludes any worthy number of PTA points. Pass.

Twelve ($4 Ult) – Another veteran director, Joel Schumacher, was the driving force behind this film, which was showcased at Sundance this year. For those not familiar with Schumacher's work, his thirty-year career has produced some memorable hits (The Lost Boys, A Time to Kill, The Client) and some truly horrific misses (Batman & Robin, 8MM, The Number 23). It's not often that he does a project this small, so it might be worth noting.

Gossip Girl's Chace Crawford plays White Mike, the 17-year-old privileged son of a restaurant tycoon who makes his own shady living by selling marijuana to his similarly-wealthy peers. He also sells a new designer drug that is a mixture of cocaine and ecstasy called “twelve”, a business that leads him down a very dangerous path that also claims the life of his cousin. Emma Roberts, Rory Culkin and Curtis “50 Cent” Jackson co-star, and Kiefer Sutherland narrates.

I can't find an official site for Twelve, so again, I don't know how many screens will be showing it. Despite the fact that the film didn't go over well with Sundance critics, Roger Ebert staunchly defended its “fearless”, gritty nature, for what that's worth. It has a good shot to pick up PTA points, but there are an awful lot of unknowns that would make me thing twice about choosing it.

Lebanon ($4 Ult) – This is a foreign film, done in the Hebrew language of Israel, directed by Samuel Maoz (Total Eclipse). It follows a tank crew comprised of four strangers who are assigned to clear an area in the Middle Eastern country of Lebanon of hostile fighters during Israel's war with Lebanon in 1982. From the trailer, the film has a very claustrophobic feel, with many scenes being shot down the barrels of the tank's many gun turrets.

The somewhat controversial films has won several Hebrew film awards, and will make its debut in New York this Friday, and is also scheduled for a Los Angeles release next week. It's safe to say that the total number of screens showing Lebanon will be under ten, so if you feel like taking a chance on any of this weekend's limited-release films, this may be the one... if nothing else, you can take advantage of its very good Rating, which stands at 7.3 with over 1,300 votes already.

Cairo Time ($3 Ult) – IFC Films is distributing this romantic drama about a magazine editor named Juliette (Patricia Clarkson) who flies to the Egyptian capital to meet up with her husband. But when her husband is unexpectedly delayed in Gaza, he sends his long-time friend Tareq (Alexander Siddig – remember him from Star Trek: Deep Space Nine?), a retired police officer, to look after her. Acting as both bodyguard and guide, Tareq shows Juliette the sights of Cairo, and a romantic spark seems to ignite between the two.

BOM has Cairo Time bowing on five New York screens this Friday. And while that would seem an optimum number for easy PTA points, I'm not so sure. The reviews have been decidedly mixed (5/9 positive on RT), and while both protagonists are played by familiar actors, neither is what you'd call a household name. With seven films debuting this weekend, two are going to be left without any PTA at all, and this seems like the kind of film that is the most likely to slip below the film community's radar altogether.


My predictions for the weekend of August 6-8, 2010:

1. The Other Guys - $36 million
2. Inception - $19 million
3. Dinner For Schmucks - $14 million
4. Step Up 3D - $13 million
5. Salt - $11 million
6. Despicable Me - $10 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the world record for the amount of testosterone in one movie will be set with the release of The Expendables, a Sylvester Stallone-directed action film that features more current and former action stars than you can shake an M16 at; Eat Pray Love, a chick flick starring Julia Roberts and Javier Bardem; Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, a goofy-looking Michael Cera love story combining cartoonish and video-game elements; as well as limited-release films Tales From Earthsea (directed by acclaimed Japanese anime whiz Goro Miyazaki) and Animal Kingdom.

Later!

[Buscemi]

Homeland Security actually came out as My Mom's New Boyfriend. Also, George Gallo is probably better known as the writer of Midnight Run (which is reportedly getting a sequel) and director of 29th Street (the movie about Frank Pesce, actor and first winner of the New York State Lottery) than My Mom's New Boyfriend.

And early word on Twelve is pretty negative (outside of Ebert's review). The movie actually got booed at Sundance (where it was the closing night film).

[Shrykespeare]

So, how well do you guys predict The Other Guys will open (1st weekend) and do overall (total gross)?

[transformers2]

I am thinking a 30 mill for the opening and 110 total.

[Buscemi]

I'll go with $35 million on The Other Guys and $21 million on Step Up 3-D.

[Ron Burgundy]

28 Mil Other Guys 90 mil total

14 Mil Step Up 36 mil total

[Buscemi]

I'm surprised by the low numbers on Step Up 3-D. Step Up 2 managed $18 million on opening weekend (minus its Thursday opening). I imagine that Step Up 3-D can get to at least $20 million with its higher ticket prices and Summer release date (similar to the first, which was a surprise hit). Also helping is that StreetDance 3-D still hasn't gotten a US release (despite having been released almost everywhere else).

And Flipped is opening in 45 theatres. Surprising considering how low-profile it is.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I'd say 35/110 for The Other Guys and 24/70 for Step Up 3D

[Buscemi]

On the Flipped opening: it is actually a regional run. The 45 theatres actually compose entirely of three cities: Los Angeles, Sacramento and Austin. Warner Bros. has done this on other family films (such as My Dog Skip back in 2000) but it is almost always a kiss of death on a movie's box office (My Dog Skip being an exception to the rule). I'm guessing more markets will be added before the wide opening if the regional run is successful.

[Buscemi]

Early Weekend Estimates:

The Other Guys $35.5 million
Step Up 3-D $15.5 million

Also, I found out that The Other Guys had one of its two premieres in St. Louis (due to winning a contest known as The Other Premiere, beating bigger cities such as Philadelphia, Atlanta, Dallas and Houston). Did you hear anything about this, becs?

[becs]

Nope, not a thing. I am not too plugged into the theater scene stuff here anymore.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

The Other Guys, $13.2M
Step Up 3D, $6.6M
Inception, $5.53M
Dinner For Schmucks, $3.38M
Salt, $3M
Despicable Me, $2.92M
Cats & Dogs, $2.15M
Charlie St. Clouid, $1.72M

So Despicable Me has officially crossed $200M. Kudos.

Toy Story 3 is now less than $6M away from $400M.

Twilight: Eclipse is $8.5M away from $300M.

[Buscemi]

Middle Men flops with only $101,000 on opening day for a $401 PTA. Paramount should have pushed this one back to August 20th or only opened in New York and Los Angeles with the expansion still happening on August 20th.

Meanwhile, Flipped gets $72,000 on opening day for a $1,600 PTA. Pretty small numbers but since it is a regional release, it isn't that bad. Most regional releases don't get $1,600 PTA for the weekend.

Nothing on Twelve yet but I'm not expecting much.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

So I guess this is the last Step Up then...?

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Estimates:

Top 5:
5 points - The Other Guys, $35.6M
4 points - Inception, $18.6M
3 points - Step Up 3D, $15.5M
2 points - Salt, $11.1M
1 point - Dinner For Schmucks, $10.5M

PTA:
5 points - The Other Guys
4 points - Get Low
3 points - Lebanon
2 points - Step Up 3D
1 point - Inception

Flipped and Twelve fall short. No word yet on Middle Men or Cairo Time.


Ratings:
The Other Guys - 7.4
Step Up 3D - 4.1
Flipped - 6.7
Middle Men - 6.6
Twelve - 6.1
Lebanon - 7.3
Cairo Time - 6.7