SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/30

[Shrykespeare]

Christopher Nolan has once again proven to be the King of July. Inception was able to hold off Angelina Jolie and Salt for its second straight weekend victory. All things considered, it's looking like an outstanding pick for the July leagues. It's already well past $150 million, and it currently sits at #3 on the IMDb All-Time-Best-Rated Movies list with a hefty 9.3. It may or may not have the mustard to finish in the Top 5 highest-grossing films of the year, but it's beginning to look like Christopher Nolan has joined Pixar and James Cameron as Hollywood's surest bets.

But can Inception hold on for a third consecutive week? There are three new films coming the weekend of July 30th, and two of them have possibilities, but for very different reasons. The one that's probably the most likely to give Inception a run for the crown is Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore, a kiddie action/comedy from Warner Bros. This is a sequel to the 2001 film Cats & Dogs, which became a surprise hit in summer of that year, earning $93 million domestically and over $200 internationally. That film starred the voices of Alec Baldwin, Tobey Maguire, Susan Sarandon, Jon Lovitz, Joe Pantoliano and Michael Clarke Duncan. However, of that bunch, only Pantoliao and Duncan return for the sequel.

The concept: cats and dogs, the most common household pets in the U.S., are not only superintelligent beings capable of very human-like behavior, but are each part of a vast, high-tech organization whose mission is to stop the other from becoming too dominant. However, both species must join forces in order to combat the nefarious Kitty Galore (Bette Midler), who is fed up with both species and wants to enslave the human race. (Bad Kitty!) Fighting her is a team led by a German Shepherd police dog named Diggs (James Marsden). Other celebrity voices include Paul Rodriguez, Christina Applegate, Nick Nolte, Roger Moore, Katt Williams, Neil Patrick Harris and Wallace Shawn.

Obviously, this film is meant for kids, so I'm loathe to underestimate its chances, no matter how godawfully dumb it looks. (I mean, seriously? A Silence of the Lambs reference? How many kids who want to see this movie even know who Hannibal Lecter is?) Still, it made a big splash in July 2001 (earning $93 million), and last year's kiddie action flick G-Force, did even better than that ($120 million).

With school starting for many kids within the next few weeks, this looks to be the last big kiddie hit of the summer. Warner Bros. sure thinks so, since they are shoving it into over 3,700 theaters, including many 3D locations. I'm going to predict $80 million total for Revenge, which makes its $10 price tag in July very appealing. $10 in Ultimate will probably get you six Top 5 points, and maybe one or two PTA if you're lucky. Don't expect a User Rating much higher than 5.0, however.

Dinner For Schmucks is next up, and though it is only being shown in roughly 2,500 theaters, it's got quite an impressive pedigree. It is directed by Jay Roach, who also directed Meet the Parents, Meet the Fockers and all three Austin Powers films. It features Steve Carell, starring in his third major film since April, and Paul Rudd, the rising comedic star of such films as Role Models and I Love You, Man.

A remake (of sorts) of the French play La Diner de Cons, Dinner For Schmucks centers on the character of Tim Wagner (Rudd), an up-and-coming exec who is on the cusp of achieving entry to the promised land: a corner office and a key to the executive washroom. But he still has to do one thing to impress is rather snooty boss (Bruce Greenwood), who on a monthly basis hosts a dinner for his immediate staff. But it's more than just a dinner, you see, it's actually a contest. Whichever guest brings the biggest idiot – who is there specifically to be made fun of – gets the most privileges.

Tim's fiancé Julie (Stephanie Szostak) is horrified, of course, and Tim balks at the idea... that is, at first. Enter Barry Speck (Carell), a solitary – and very odd – IRS agent who seems to be the perfect choice. But Tim is a softie at heart, and a friendship is eventually struck up between the two, a friendship that takes several disturbing (and destructive) turns, as Carell seems to channel a little bit of Jim Carrey's The Cable Guy and a little bit of Bill Murray from What About Bob?.

This film actually looks really funny. I'm interested to see how it ends, and the presence of The Hangover's Zach Galifianakis as a self-professed “mind-control expert” can only add to the hilarity. Dinner For Schmucks is rated PG-13, which tells me that the truly “adult” humor has been toned down so young audiences can enjoy it. But will they?

This film was priced at $13 Ultimate ($12 Box Office), unfortunately long before we realized that such a disparity in release platform would exist between it and Cats & Dogs. As such, and given that Inception and perhaps Salt are likely to remain close or or over $20 million this weekend, I am predicting a finish no higher than #4 for Schmucks. It may make $50 million in the long run, but that still wouldn't really justify its price tag.

The last of the wide-release films this week is Charlie St. Cloud, starring teen heartthrob Zac Efron in the title role. But he's not singing or dancing this time around, nor is he the rejuvenated persona of Matthew Perry (thank God). Charlie is a resident in a small seaside town who is just about to depart for college, leaving behind his mother (Kim Basinger) and little brother Sam (I Am Legend's Charlie Tahan). Before leaving, Charlie promises Sam that he will practice baseball with him until he leaves.

But tragedy strikes when the brothers are in a terrible car accident that ends up killing Sam and leaving Charlie hollow and full of guilt, so much so that he gives up on college and takes a job as a caretaker at the cemetery where Sam is buried. He deals with his grief by communicating with his brother's “spirit”, and through these conversations must find a way to heal his broken soul and perhaps win the heart of a local yachtswoman (Amanda Crew) who dreams of sailing around the world. Ray Liotta and Donal Logue co-star.

Charlie will also be bowing in roughly 2,500 theaters, but I find it hard to believe that it will be able to crack the Top 5 at all. It won't outgross Dinner For Schmucks, and given Despicable Me's minute drops, I don't think Charlie's $10 million opening weekend will even come close. It's only $8 (in either league), but I seriously doubt this film will give you numbers in any category that make its purchase worth it.

And now, a little bit about this weekend's three limited-release films:

Get Low ($5 Ult) – This entrant at the Toronto Film Festival looks like a definite winner, and could possibly even take the PTA crown. It stars Robert Duvall as Felix Bush, a crusty old hermit living in backwoods 1930's Tennessee. Felix has got a bad reputation, and many rumors swirl around his name... perhaps he's a murderer, perhaps he's in league with the devil himself. No one really knows for sure, so imagine the townsfolk's surprise when Felix shows up and ask the owner of the local funeral parlor (Bill Murray) to organize a “living funeral party” for him.

The plot: anyone with something to say about Felix can show up and tell it while he listens, and show up they do, including a local widow named Mattie (Sissy Spacek), one of the few people who remembers Felix from decades before, before he withdrew from society. Stories will be told, and Felix himself will come clean about what made him go away in the first place. Lucas Black, Gerald McRaney and Bill Cobbs co-star.

Director Aaron Schneider seems to have hit the mother lode so far. Fifteen reviews for Get Low have been entered on RT, and ALL of them are positive, including critics from such publications as Hollywood Reporter, Variety and Film.com. It also has a very impressive User Rating (7.7 with over 300 votes). However, I have been unable to discern just how many screens will be showing this film, and that is a vital piece of information to have before choosing this film. If it turns out to be below ten screens, I would say, definitely snap this one up.

Le Concert (The Concert) ($4 Ult) – This French film directed by Radu Mihaileanu centers on the character of Andrei Filipov (Aleksei Guskov), a former conductor for Moscow's Bolshoi Orchestra who had his career destroyed by Brezhnev thirty years earlier for his political beliefs (he refused to fire the Jewish members of his orchestra). Now working as a janitor, he has occasion to intercept a fax from the prestigious Theatre du Chatelet in Paris. This inspires him to – almost Blues Brothers' style – “get the band back together”. Of course, “the band” is his former orchestra, more than fifty musicians who are now mostly alcoholic ex-musicians, and getting them together and organized and ready to fly to Paris to finish the Tchaikovsky concerto that they were unable to complete three decades earlier will be no mean feat.

The Rating for Le Concert is also very good (7.6 with nearly 2,000 votes), but the critical reviews are somewhat mixed (12/19 positive on RT). BOM has it coming out in only two theaters, and I shouldn't have to tell you that French films tend to do very well in the PTA category. If you think that Get Low won't pan out for you, this might be a worthy susbstitute.

The Extra Man ($4 Ult) – This quirky-looking comedy, led by directors Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini (American Splendor) and based on the novel by Jonathan Ames, stars Kevin Kline (where has HE been?) as Henry Harrison, a failed playwright who now earns a living by “entertaining” wealthy (and lonely) older women. He takes in an aspiring writer named Louis Ives (Paul Dano), and proceeds to teach him his lifestyle. John C. Reilly (fresh off Cyrus), Cathy Moriarty and Katie Holmes co-star.

The trailer looks funny, and I personally love Kline in this kind of role. But early reviews have been less than stellar (only 3/7 positive), and get this: according to the film's official website, The Extra Man is already available “On Demand, Direct TV, Dish Network Playstation, Xbox Live, Amazon and Vudu”... which makes me wonder if anyone will bother showing up at whatever theaters (three, to be exact) are showing it. Pass.


My predictions for the weekend of July 30-August 1, 2010:

1. Inception - $26 million
2. Cats and Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore - $24 million
3. Salt - $19 millions
4. Dinner For Schmucks - $18 million
5. Despicable Me - $17 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the final month of the Summer Season gets under way as we tackle the first few films of August, which are: The Other Guys, a buddy/cop drama starring Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg as NYPD desk jockeys who try to get some real cop action; Step Up 3D, the third in the series of street-dance movies; Middle Men, based on the story of two 1995 businessmen who get the idea of selling porn over the Internet; as well as limited-release films Flipped, Twelve, Lebanon and Cairo Time.

Later!

[Buscemi]

Middle Men is opening limited with an expansion on August 20th.

As for the openers, I'll predict:

Dinner For Schmucks $18 million
Cats and Dogs: The Revenge Of Kitty Galore $14 million (looks more like Marmaduke than G-Force)
Charlie St. Cloud $8 million (this should have stayed in October with its old title of The Death and Life of Charlie St. Cloud rather than moving up and bumping Beastly back to March)

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I would usually say Cats & Dogs would flop, especially since non-animated kid's movies have bombed this summer - but 3D should greatly help it.

And I agree with Busc on Charlie St. Cloud, it doesn't have a summer movie feel to it at all. A teeny bopper drama like that is for the March-April time or September maybe. Plus it looks soooo stupid - just the notion of playing catch with your dead brother looks like they're trying way too hard to pull at some heartstrings.

Dinner For Schmucks - I don't know. The trailers and TV spots have been awful, but will people go see Carell and Zach G. anyway? I don't think so, personally. And it's gonna get eaten up by The Other Guys, which looks like a better time at the movies.

[Buscemi]

Weekend Estimates:

Dinner For Schmucks $27 million
Charlie St. Cloud $14 million
Cats and Dogs 2 $12 million

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Dinner For Schmucks, $8.4M
Inception, $8.15M
Salt, $5.9M
Charlie St. Cloud, $5.6M
Despicable Me, $4.69M
Cats & Dogs, $4.2M

Some surprises. DFS opened much higher than I expected, as did CSC. I wouldn't totally count out C&D2, since kids' movies tend to do the bulk of their business on Sat-Sun anyway. Still, I doubt that it will finish any higher than #3. Guess it's less like G-Force and more like unneeded sequels like Garfield 2, Super Babies 2 and 102 Dalmatians.

[Buscemi]

At the theatre I went to today, two of the three biggest auditoriums had Cats and Dogs 2 playing. Those must have been some empty auditoriums.

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Estimates

Top 5:

5 points - Inception, $27.52M
4 points - Dinner For Schmucks, $23.3M
3 points - Salt, $19.25M
2 points - Despicabale Me, $15.54M
1 point - Cats & Dogs, $12.53M
Charlie St. Cloud, $12.14M

Inception and Despicable me are now just shy of $200M, Eclipse needs $11M to reach $300M, and Toy Story 3 needs only $10M to reach $400M.


PTA:

5 points - Get Low
4 points - Le Concert
3 points - Dinner For Schmucks
2 points - Inception
1 point - Salt

The Kids Are All Right, with its jump to 847 screens, STILL finished 10th in PTA.

No word yet on The Extra Man.


User Ratings:

Dinner For Schmucks - 6.4
Charlie St. Cloud - 5.1
Cats & Dogs - 3.0
Get Low - 7.7
Le Concert - 7.6
The Extra Man - 7.0

[Shrykespeare]

BOM Sunday Actuals

Top 5:
5 points - Inception, $27.49M
4 points - Dinner For Schmucks, $23.53M
3 points - Salt, $19.47M
2 points - Despicable Me, $15.52M
1 point - Charlie St. Cloud, $12.38M
Cats & Dogs, $12.28M

PTA:
5 points - Get Low
4 points - Le Concert
3 points - The Extra Man
2 points - Dinner For Schmucks
1 point - Inception

So let's hear it for the three limited-release films this week, which finished 1-3.