SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/16

[Shrykespeare]

Well, I severely underestimated this past weekend's allure... I predicted that the Top 5 films would earn only about $110 million, but they instead ended up earning over $155 million. Both Despicable Me and Predators opened way higher than I anticipated, and even The Twilight Saga: Eclipse avoided the Week 2 swoon that has plagued the franchise thus far, dropping only 48% from its first weekend (though, to be fair, because of the Wednesday opening, the Fri-Sun numbers weren't quite as staggering as they were for Twilight or New Moon). And Toy Story 3 has indeed passed Finding Nemo and Alice in Wonderland to become, respectively, the #1 Pixar movie of all time and the #1 top-grossing film of 2010. Bravo!

While technically the summer season doesn't “conclude” until the end of August, it's easy to argue that the summer movie "season" ends at the end of July. (When I was a kid, we didn't start school until after Labor Day. Now, kids are starting in August. Which, when you live in Arizona, is just... wrong.) The upcoming slate would seem to bear that out. There are three movies coming in the next two weeks that have blockbuster potential, but after that things begin to look a little sparse. Which is not to say that August has NO potential $100 million earners, it could have as many as three (The Other Guys, The Expendables and possibly Eat Pray Love), but none of those are as guaranteed as next week's Salt or the two wide-release movies coming this Friday.

$533 million. That is how much money Christopher Nolan's last movie, The Dark Knight, made at the box office in the U.S. in 2008, making it (at the time) the second-most successful film of all time. (Now it's #3, thanks to another film that has already gotten too much ink.) But more than that: that film is widely regarded as the best comic-book/superhero movie of all time. It broke records, it won over critics (94% on over 250 reviews at RT) and viewers (an 8.9 rating at IMDb), and won multitudes of awards, including a posthumous Oscar for Heath Ledger.

Before The Dark Knight, director Christopher Nolan was a rising star, having helmed other hits such as Memento, The Prestige and, of course, Batman Begins. Helming such a juggernaut as TDK has cemented his name as one of the best directors in Hollywood, to the point where studios are likely to give him a blank check to turn their scripts into box office magic for the next ten years. And while we are all salivating over the next Batman installment – which, if the rumors are true, will start filming next spring and will be in theaters in July 2012 – we have Nolan's latest fim, Inception, hitting theaters this Friday.

Now, will Inception make the same coin as TDK? Not a chance in hell. But as far as critics are concerned, it deserves to be ranked right up there with Nolan's best. There are 17 reviews in the can at RT for this film, and ALL of them are positive. Kirk Honeycutt of The Hollywood Reporter calls Inception “a devilishly complicated, fiendishly enjoyable sci-fi voyage across a dreamscape that is thoroughly compelling... [it is] easily the most original movie idea in ages.”

It's been difficult for me to wrap my head around the plot, what little I've been able understand of it so far. In Inception, there is a new kind of corporate espionage wherein a thief enters a person's dreams in order to steal ideas. This is done by a team of “extractors” who design the architecture of the dream, infiltrate it and even use drugs to help several people share the same dream. One of the best at this is Dom Cobb (Leonardo DiCaprio), who for reasons that are unknown at this time is on the run and unable to return to his family in the U.S. But then, a powerful businessman (Ken Watanabe) offers Dom his life back in exchange for him doing one special job... with a twist. Instead of stealing a dream, he wants Dom to implant one, an idea that will cause the mark (Cillian Murphy) to break up his father's multi-billion dollar company for “emotional” reasons.

The supporting cast is very impressive, and includes THREE actors from Batman Begins: Watanabe, Murphy, and Michael Caine (who plays Dom's father-in-law). Also present are Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Ellen Page, Marion Cotillard, Tom Hardy, Pete Postlethwaite, Tom Berenger and Lukas Haas.

Inception is going to be playing in just under 4,000 theaters come Friday. Twilight: Eclipse has already started losing steam, and I'm virtually certain that Nolan's name and the positive WOM will mean a #1 finish for this film. It will likely bring in at least eleven Top 5 points, a healthy amount of PTA, and a terrific Rating (well over 8.0). It's a great pick, but it's certainly not a cheap pick, obviously.

In fact, after Eclipse, it's the second-most-expensive film of the season. It will run you $26 in both Ultimate and Box Office leagues. I would not spend that much on it, however, unless you are convinced that it can make at least $180 million. Will it be able to? I'm on the fence. Nolan's obviously put forth a very cool-looking, intelligent movie, and that worries me... will it overly-cerebral premise and the lack of the Caped Crusader be enough to draw a big crowd? I'd like to think so, but still, I'd be wary... particularly when you've got Salt, a very-well-advertised action film starring sexy vamp Angelina Jolie, coming up next week. That film may not gross as many dollars as Inception, but it will be close, and it has the possibility of earning even more Top 5 points for less money ($18).

While critics are falling all over themselves to praise Inception, however, a few of them are already preparing the tar and feathers for The Sorcerer's Apprentice, which marks the third time that Walt Disney Pictures has teamed up producer Jerry Bruckheimer and director Jon Turtletaub with actor Nicolas Cage... though this is the first time that it's not for the National Treasure franchise.

Of course, for most Disney enthusiasts, to hear the name The Sorcerer's Apprentice is to instantly conjure up (heh) images of Mickey Mouse losing control over a multitude of an ever-increasing plethora of sentient, water-carrying, deluge-causing mops. Although there looks to be kind of a tribute to that segment of the classic Disney film Fantasia, this story takes place in the modern day.

Cage plays Balthazar Blake, a disciple of Merlin, who has wandered the earth for one and a half millenia searching for a young boy foretold of in a prophesy, a prophesy that states that he must stand against an army of evil wizards who mean to destroy the world with an army of dead souls. And of course, where to find such a boy? Why, in New York, of course! Enter nerdy college student Dave Butler (Jay Baruchel, coming off a busy spring with She's Out of My League and How to Train Your Dragon) appears to fit the bill, so Balthazar must train the young novice in the ways of sorcery before his arch-nemesis, a sly, brooding fellow named Maxim Horvath (Alfred Molina) comes looking for him. About the best thing I found among the reviews present at RT was that the actors played their roles fairly well.... that is, with the exception of Cage, who shows “no spark of inventiveness... his character is all wardrobe, makeup and long, scraggly hair.”

Well, not even Disney can hit it out of the park every time. I expect it to make about $100 million, but not much more, not when films like Despicable Me, Inception and Salt are going to be drawing big audiences (not to mention whatever residual audiences Eclipse and Toy Story 3 have left). I predict $42 million in Apprentice's first five days. (Oh, did I mention it comes out on Wednesday? No? My bad.) This means that it will get no more than five or six Top 5 points, barely any PTA and a Rating in the 6.2-6.8 range. Definitely not worth $17 in Ultimate, but in Box Office it qualifies as "barely worth it".

This week's only limited-release feature up for consideration is The Wild Hunt, a Canadian drama/horror film that is produced and directed by Alexandre Franchi (who also co-wrote the screenplay). The film centers on a young man named Erik (Ricky Mabe), who has just had a falling-out with his girlfriend Evelyn (Kaniehtiio Horn), who just so happens to be one a group of people that enjoys live-action role-playing, re-enacting the conditions, lifestyle and language of medieval times.

Now, as I'm sure you can imagine if you've ever been to a Renaissance Fair or SCA outing (or even if you've just seen Role Models), there are people in groups like this who take it WAYYYYY too seriously. And as such, the one thing they hate more than anything is someone who bursts their fantasy-bubble by bringing modern technology or irrelevant problems to "their" world. And when Erik interrupts events in an attempt to win Evelyn back, things take a horrifically ugly turn... think Lord of the Flies, but with supposedly reasonable adults. You know, the kind of adults who probably start riots when their favorite team wins the championship.

I have not been able to ascertain just how many theaters will be showing The Wild Hunt this Friday. Whether there are any PTA points in store for it, I'm not sure. It's only $3, and for that you will get a very good User Rating (right now it's at 7.6, but with only 136 votes). It does have a shot at PTA points, given that it's the only limited-release film this week, but given the total PTA domination of The Kids are All Right last week, I have to believe that that film will win the crown again this week (and if it doesn't, Inception will probably be the one that beats it). The Wild Hunt may walk off with two or three points, but it's definitely a gamble. It's got unknown actors, an unknown director and a premise that doesn't exactly scream “watch me”. I would probably pass on this one.


My predictions for the weekend of July 16-18, 2010:

1. Inception - $65 million
2. Despicable Me - $33 million
3. The Sorcerer's Apprentice - $23 million ($42 million 5-day)
4. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - $16 million
5. Toy Story 3 - $15 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, Angelina Jolie straps on the sexy outfits and the heavy artillery for Salt, a high-octane espionage action thriller also starring Liev Schreiber and Chiwetel Ejiofor; Ramona and Beezus, an adaptation of the best-selling series of children's books starring Selena Gomez and Joey King; as well as limited-release features Life During Wartime, The Concert (Le Concert), Countdown to Zero and Valhalla Rising.

Later!

[numbersix]

Agreed about Sorcerer's Apprentice (AKA Poor Man's Harry Potter) and Wild Hunt. I don't know, I may be wrong, but I could see Inception faring better than you say. Maybe opening in the 70s or even 80s and finishing at arounf 250-300 million. After all these reboots and sequels perhaps people want something new. Match that with Di Caprio and "the makers of The Dark Knight" and you could have people flocking to see something that may be hard to grasp the plot of, but at the very least will have Matrix fans wet themselves at another film that has that whole world-coming-undone feel. I coul see this doing very well.

[Buscemi]

The Sorcerer's Apprentice looks like what happens when you adapt a Mickey Mouse cartoon to feature-length....and completely miss the point. Maybe this will end Jon Turtletaub's career as a top action director and reduce him to 3 Ninjas again.

Also, I noticed that another movie called Standing Ovation is starting here at one of the megaplexes on Friday. What is it? Well, it is what happens when you take the High School Musical movies and add Mormon elements to them. Yes, it's like that. Making things worse: the writer/director also did Mac and Me (or that E.T. ripoff with Ronald McDonald and the clip that Paul Rudd loved to show on Conan). But it's not so bad. Best Worst Movie is also starting here this week.

[thswrestler160]

My theater is also getting standing ovation. The weekend warrior has it debuting in around 1200 theaters even though no one has heard of it until now.

warrior
1.Inception 75.2/260
2. Despicable me 31.6
3. Sorcerer 29.5/120
4. Eclipse 15.8
5. Toy Story3 12.6

[undeadmonkey]

the latest tracking has Inception opening around $49M

[numbersix]

Yeah, tracking is low, isn't it? I guess in a disappointing summer that's still considered positive. However, as I'm sure you read UDM, Twitter has it tracking incredibly high, and let's not forget how much Despicable Me was lowballed ($35mil OW was the highest estimate) this week, or even TDK when it opened.

[Buscemi]

But Despicable Me was a kids' movie. Inception is aimed towards a much different audience.

[numbersix]

True, but I'm not familiar with the tracking methods of the experts. If they can't adjust their method to allow for families attending family films then their whole system may be useless. And of course I mentioned TDK which didn't track how high it opened.

[undeadmonkey]

yea, MTC had lowballed Despicable Me, But they've been pretty spot on for the rest of the summer. Don't get me wrong, I want to see Inception as much as the next. I just don't expect it to be the next best thing since sliced bread. Or i won't think that till i see it and deem it worthy.

[thswrestler160]

I think its a fair bet to say the movie is pretty good UDM. it currently has a 9.6 on imdb with 2600+ votes. granted alot of that is fanboyism but still its a good sign

[Buscemi]

The Sorcerer's Apprentice bombs with a $3.7 million opening day. Worse than Knight and Day's $3.8 million opening day (also The Sorcerer's Apprentice cost $33 million more than Knight and Day)

Edit: Disney is now so desperate to get people to see The Sorcerer's Apprentice that they are doing buy one, get one free tickets through Fandango. Probably won't help the box office.

[Buscemi]

Weekend Estimates:

Inception $55 million
The Sorcerer's Apprentice $17.5 million

[Shrykespeare]

BOM Sunday Estimates:

Top 5:
5 points - Inception, $60.4M
4 points - Despicable Me, $32.7M
3 points - Sorcerer's Apprentice, $17.4M ($24.5M 5-day)
2 points - Twilight: Eclipse, $13.5M
1 point - Toy Story 3, $11.7M

So I was spot on on Despicable Me, slightly over on Inception, Eclipse and Toy Story 3, and a little more over on Apprentice (way over on the 5-day).

Eclipse only dropped 57% in its third week, and is now up to $264.9 million. Call it a success.

Toy Story 3 is now up to $362M. Does it have enough juice left to reach $400M?

Airbender crosses $100M and now stands at $114M. So, despite the horrible reviews, call that a success as well.


PTA:

5 points - The Kids Are All Right
4 points - Inception
3 points - Despicable Me
2 points - The Sorcerer's Apprentice
1 point - Toy Story 3

No word yet on The Wild Hunt.


User Ratings:

Inception - 9.4
Sorcerer's Apprentice - 6.1
The Wild Hunt - 7.6

[Shrykespeare]

BOM Sunday Actuals

Top 5:
5 points - Inception, $62.8M
4 points - Despicable Me, $32.8M
3 points - The Sorcerer's Apprentice, $17.6M ($24.7M 5-day)
2 points - Twilight: Eclipse, $13.4M
1 point - Toy Story 3, $12.0M


PTA:

Okay, this is some weird shit. Not only does "The Wild Hunt" not report, but a film that BOM has as opening THIS Friday was apparently released in one theater this past weekend.

5 points - The Kids Are All Right
4 points - Inception
3 points - Despicable Me
2 points - Valhalla Rising (???)
1 point - The Sorcerer's Apprentice

[numbersix]

Think there's some odd mix-up there that they'll sort out today. sometimes they don't get all of the limited releases right until Tuesday.