SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/9

[Shrykespeare]

Well, The Twilight Saga: Eclipse did pretty much as expected... it broke the opening-day record (for a Wednesday), and is already on its way to fizzling out. Whereas New Moon came darn close to reaching $300 million, it would shock me if Eclipse, despite being the best-reviewed film of the bunch, had the gusto to even reach $250 million. So those of you who chose it in Ultimate... well, you knew what you were getting into. Meanwhile, Toy Story 3 is #6 on IMDb's Highest Rated Films of All Time list, and it should pass Finding Nemo in the next 2-3 weeks to become Pixar's most successful film to date. Huzzah!

But time marches on, and this Friday (July 9th) brings with it five new titles for consideration. And this is where the (July) season starts getting interesting. If you were smart, you took Eclipse in the July Box Office leagues... but now what? You've got four movies this month (and maybe as many as three next month) with the potential to do $80 million or more. But you can't possibly fit ALL of them on your slate, so how do you choose? There are pros and cons attached to nearly all of those titles... but that's why I'm here, I guess.

Many summer movies have terrific ad campaigns. But I don't remember ever having my television screen blitzed by ads for ANY movie like I have for Despicable Me. There was a time, not too long ago, when I was extremely jazzed about seeing this film. The prospect of having two animated super-villains go at each other, Spy vs. Spy-style, was very appealing. The fact that the main character was being voiced by Steve Carell was all the motivation I needed to see it.

Gru (Carell) is a megalomaniacal villain planning various large-scale nefarious deeds from a secret lair beneath his suburban home. His arch-nemesis is Vector (Jason Segel), who one-ups him and his army of diminutive, dim-witted minions (which look like little yellow suppositories clad in overalls and goggles) at every turn. Seemed like a potentially hilarious story, that.

But then, the ad campaign became less about the rivalry between Gru and Vector than it did about the other sub-plot: namely, that Gru somehow becomes a father figure to three little orphan girls. Every commercial I've seen in the last month has had them front and center, with Gru juggling the tasks of plotting his theft of the moon (yes, the MOON) and being an impromptu parent.

NBC, the network that airs Carell's hit show The Office, has been going all-out in promoting this film. Not only have there been scores of commercials, but the film has been plugged shamelessly on shows like Last Coming Standing and Losing It With Jillian, among others. And not only that, it seems every half hour on NBC you will find the film's title, complete with the little yellow minions congaing across the bottom of the screen. At this point, I just want the damn movie to come OUT already, so the onslaught on my senses can finally end.

I fully expect Eclipse to drop like a stone on its second weekend, so despite its being released in only 3,200 theaters, I predict an OW of $32 million for Despicable Me. For $18 (in both leagues), you could get as many as ten Top 5 points and a few PTA. It's gotten great reviews so far (6/6 on RT, 8.0 with over 300 votes at IMDb), so it won't hurt you there either. It does have a shot at $100 million, but probably not much more than that.

Also out in wide release this Friday is Predators, Robert Rodriguez's attempt to breathe life back into the sci-fi/horror franchise that began in 1987 with the original Predator, one of the coolest and most visceral action movies of all time and one of Schwarzenegger's best. It spawned a sequel three years later that had its moments, but wasn't quite as good. And then came the whole Aliens vs. Predator thing... based on one scene in Predator 2 where it was learned that the two species were enemies, a comic book was created, and from that two really BAD movie adaptations were thrust upon us. (Well, the one scene at the end of the first one where Sanaa Lathan teamed up with the Predator was pretty cool, but that was pretty much it. The second movie was a complete turdasaurus.)

I can only hope that the “aliens” that made this formidable alien species look so mediocre are nowhere to be found in Predators, which is directed by Nimrod Antal (Vacancy, Armored). Taking place 13 years after the events of Predator 2 (which itself took place “in the near future”), the film centers on a small group of people who are abducted by the Predators and deposited on a world that is basically a “game preserve”... and they are to be hunted by the fearsome creatures.

Mercenaries, warriors, and cold-blooded killers all, the group has quite a few familiar faces, including Adrien Brody, Laurence Fishburne, Topher Grace, Danny Trejo (who is also in the upcoming Machete), Alice Braga and Mahershalalhashbaz Ali. Together they must find a way to band together to survive the hunt and escape (if such a thing is possible).

Set to bow in 2,700 theaters, Predators is rated R for extreme violence and gore. And while the prospect of this series returning to the characteristics that made it great intrigues me, I can't help but wonder if this franchise has any steam left. It will run you $13 in both July leagues, and honestly, I don't think it will justify that price. With all the holdovers, I don't imagine higher than a #5 finish this week, with perhaps $15 million in its first three days and $50 million overall. Pass.

And now, a few words about this weekend's three limited-release films:

The Kids Are All Right ($6 Ult) – No, it's not a film involving The Who. This is a comedy from director Lisa Cholodenko (High Art), and it its easily my PTA pick of the week. Much like Cyrus and Winter's Bone – both of which cleaned up in PTA points – Kids was a big hit at Sundance. It's being released in only seven theaters, which is an optimum number if you are chasing PTA.

The film centers on a lesbian couple, Jules (Julianne Moore) and Nic (Annette Bening), who have two children (Alice in Wonderland's Mia Wasikowska, Josh Hutcherson) that were conceived through artificial insemination. However, when the children, unbeknownst to their moms, contact the sperm bank with the purpose of tracking down their biological father (a hip organic farmer played by Mark Ruffalo), their lives change radically.

This film has gotten tremendous reviews (15/16 at RT), and I predict that it will not only win the PTA crown this weekend, but it will hold on for at least one more week's worth of points next weekend. It's got a good Rating (7.0/339 votes), too, so there's that. It's pretty expensive ($6) for a limited-release films, but it could be well worth it.

[Rec] 2 ($4 Ult) – For those of you not familiar with the first film in this series, look no further than Quarantine, the hastily-made American "version" which was shoved into theaters two years ago. By all accounts a much-inferior film to the original [Rec], a Spanish film that got pretty good reviews, the plot of Quarantine was much the same: shot on a hand-held camera, the story followed a group of cops, fireman and reporters as they investigated an incident at an apartment building, a situation that grew more and more horrific as it turned out that not only were the visitors were in the middle of a viral outbreak that caused its victims to become slavering beasts, but that the government had ordered a total clamp-down from the outside... no one gets out alive.

Having seen the trailer for the sequel, it looks like more of the same, only soldiers are involved... that and it looks like one of those first-person video games. It, too, has gotten pretty good critical reviews (22/31 at RT, 6.8 Rating at IMDb), and because it is only being released in five theaters this Friday, it has a definite shot at some PTA. For $4, you could certainly do worse.

Winnebago Man ($3 Ult) – This is a documentary from director Ben Steinbauer that focuses on a man named Jack Rebney. If you don't know who that is, then you have apparently not watched his exploits on YouTube. You see, Jack used to make sales videos selling Winnebago motor homes, but it turns out he had quite an anger management problem, and was prone to protracted bursts of profanity. Somehow, copies of Jack's outbursts became a viral hit on YouTube, and the man became an Internet celebrity known as “The Angriest Man in the World”. What Steinbauer does besides chronicling Rebney's rise to fame is to track the actual man down, to find out how his celebrity has affected his life, and to find out if age has mellowed him. (Short answer: it hasn't.)

This film has gotten rave reviews at various film festivals, and it too has a very impressive RT score (100% on 5/5). According to the film's official site, it is premiering on only one screen this Friday (in New York), with additional theaters showcasing it across the country in the ensuing weeks. I don't know, folks. Everything about it points to it being a winner. But again, there's a lot going on this week. I certainly wouldn't blame you if you took it. Or not.


My predictions for the weekend of July 2-4, 2010:

1. Despicable Me - $32 million
2. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - $28 million
3. The Last Airbender - $20 million
4. Toy Story 3 - $17 million
5. Predators - $15 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, three more films to talk about as we careen our way into mid-July, including: The Sorcerer's Apprentice, a Disney film starring Nicolas Cage and suddenly-hot ticket Jay Baruchel; Inception, the latest brain-bending project from the mind of Dark Knight director Christopher Nolan; and limited-release film The Wild Hunt.

Later!

[Buscemi]

My predictions:

1. Despicable Me $22 million (the weekend field looks weak so this should win by default, my number is low since I don't think most people know what it's even about)
2. Eclipse $20 million (72% second week drop, typical fangirl effect)
3. Toy Story 3 $18 million (40% drop, should keep holding well and it wouldn't surprise me if it placed first or second)
4. The Last Airbender $12 million (71% second week drop, word of mouth has been awful on it and so have the reviews)
5. Predators $10 million (there's hardly been any advertising for this other than a trailer and some posters so it will underperform like rest of Fox's summer titles)

[numbersix]

Tracking hasDespicable Me looking low, more like Boosch's guess. Which is strange, because it's a kids animated movie that is getting a good bit of press. But I don't see it opening over $30M

And conversely, Predators is tracking higher than expected, with some saying low 30's. I've no idea why, though if Alien V Predator 2 (one of the worst films I've seen in years) can muster up $41M in January, I guess you can argue that a "reboot" of Predator during summer season could earn double that.

I also think that The Last Airbender will drop hard, not only from poor word of mouth but also Despicable Me should steal plenty of its family business.

Winnebago Man will be interesting. It'll see if memes are disposable or whether they're enough to make us pay to explore more.

[Buscemi]

Predators is tracking that high? Must be fanboy hype (same thing happened with Kick-Ass and Splice).

Also, Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem was a Christmas release. It opened on Christmas Day, had a typically good opening day and dropped very quickly due to poor word of mouth. (I still remember seeing it on its second day in a big auditorium that was about one-third full, just a day after the film was selling out shows due to Christmas and the film's hype. Two days later, the film was moved to a smaller auditorium while Juno got the bigger auditorium.)

[undeadmonkey]

last i read, predators was tracking at mid 40s. but there is no way it'll open that high, i think it'll be about $22M

[Brockster]

Latest tracking has DM at 35M and Pred at 24M.

[Brockster]

Did the price change on Winnebago Man?? I thought it was $1 in the May Leagues, now it's showing $3 and my slate is all jacked up??? How can they change that all of the sudden?

Edit: It actually took Winter's Heart off of my slate, even though that movie already came out. WTF is going on?

[undeadmonkey]

I've noticed it too. the prices do change, I brought it up a while ago. I've never had it take a movie off my slate though, unless i've just not noticed.

[Buscemi]

After nine days of release, Eclipse is almost $19 million behind New Moon at the same point. Has Twilight-mania peaked?

[silversurfer19]

I think that may be a little premature to say, as Eclipse opened on a Wednesday, so it's 9 day total has only included one weekend, while New Moon's first 9 days included a Friday and Saturday extra. If you take the first 7 day grosses, that is much more comparable, with New Moon just edging Eclipse out by $1.1m.

[Buscemi]

But Eclipse's first week did include a four-day weekend (many people in the US got Monday off since Independence Day fell on a Sunday).

[silversurfer19]

I agree, so that is like having one extra day on weekend takes, which is still a day less than New Moon has had. I would guess that after Friday's total (both 9 day grosses) it will be pretty close to New Moon's numbers again. I don't think some of Twilight's audience has suddenly dropped down dead (though some may hope...) and they are pretty die hard fans, so no doubt it will record similar numbers once again. We'll just have to wait and see though.

[Buscemi]

Even with the benefit of the Thanksgiving weekend, Twilight and New Moon still dropped 62% and 70% respectively. I'm thinking that Eclipse will drop even more than that since there isn't a Holiday weekend to rely on. Also, Eclipse does not have the curiosity factor that helped New Moon create the ceiling that Eclipse must reach to pass it.

[silversurfer19]

Oh, was it's second weekend Thanksgiving? I guess that all leads to a minimum 70% drop second weekend, probably in the $25m region.

[Buscemi]

Yes. Twilight and New Moon both opened on the third week of November. Thanksgiving is the fourth week of November. That explains last year why The Blind Side made more money in the second week than the first.