SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/30, 7/2

[Shrykespeare]

It would certainly appear that Toy Story 3, riding high after its Week 2 victory, is a shoe-in to become only the second Pixar film to reach the coveted $300 million mark. The questions that will arise after that are: can it surpass Alice in Wonderland ($334 million) as the highest-grossing film of 2010? And then, can it eclipse Finding Nemo ($339 million) and become the highest-crossing film in Pixar's storied history? It would certainly seem possible!

The first weekend of July, which will encompass the coveted Independence Day weekend, will herald the release of two, and only two, films. Both of them are wide-release films, both of them are big-budget films, and both of them have high expectations, although for different reasons. It's a rare occurrence that I have so few films to talk about (especially the fact that there are zero limited-release films this week), so at least I can go a little more in-depth about the two films that ARE on tap.

Just over six months ago, the highly-anticipated second chapter in the Twilight series of films, entitled The Twilight Saga: New Moon, broke The Dark Knight's opening-day record, raking in a whopping $72.7 million in its very first day. It did calm down slightly after that, managing only the third-biggest opening weekend of all time (a very respectable $142.8 million). The reasons for this are obvious: being an adaptation of one of the most widely-read series of novels in recent history (even rivaling Harry Potter's sales in the U.S.), legions of teenage girls flock to the theaters to swoon over their favorite characters, played by teen heartthrobs Robert Pattinson and Taylor Lautner.

But let me back up. The Twilight novels, a four-part series penned by Stephanie Meyer, is built a round a teen romantic triangle with a fantasy twist. Bella Swan (Kristen Stewart), a human girl, is torn between the love she has for her vampire boyfriend Edward Cullen (Pattinson) and her friendship with werewolf Jacob Black (Lautner)... and seeing that vampires and werewolves aren't exactly the best of friends, there's a very real element of danger involved. (I did not see New Moon, so bear with me.)

The third part of the story, The Twilight Saga: Eclipse, opens with the revelation that the city of Seattle is being plagued by a string of murders, which Edward suspects is caused by a new vampire who is unable to contain his lust for blood. As he and Bella apply to college, she informs him of her desire to maintain her friendship with Jacob. And though Edward fears for her safety, she insists that neither Jacob nor his family pose any threat to her. Meanwhile, one of Edward's kin, Alice Cullen (Ashley Greene) has a vision that Victoria (Bryce Dallas Howard), a vampire who is hunting Bella so she can get revenge for the death of her mate, James. But the plot goes deeper than that, as Victoria is apparently leading an “army” of newborn vampires. To combat this, the Cullens join forces with the wolves to fight her.

So that's the meat of the story, but those who haven't already read the books will be looking for the answers to several burning questions... will Bella choose Edward or Jacob? Will she give up her humanity? And you can bet that there will be a huge set-up for the fourth and final chapter, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, which will be hitting theaters in winter of 2011. (Footnote: Hmm... the Twilight and Harry Potter franchises ending in the same calendar year. THAT will be a humongous battle... which one will end up being the Box Office champ of 2011? I can't help but wonder.)

Pretty much all of the cast whose characters survived the second installment are back for Eclipse, including Billy Burke as Charlie Swan, the Chief of Police of Forks, Washington; Elisabeth Reaser as Esme Cullen, the Cullen family matriarch; as well as other Cullen family members Carlisle (Peter Facinelli), Emmett (Kellan Lutz), Rosalie Hale (Nikki Reed) and Jasper Hale (Jackson Rathbone); as well as young stars Dakota Fanning (reprising her role as Jane) and Jodelle Ferland (playing Bree, a newborn vampire).

Let's crunch some numbers. As I said, you can expect the numbers for Eclipse to be through the roof in its first five days (it's opening June 30th, a Wednesday). Both the original Twilight and New Moon followed a similar pattern, and it seems reasonable to assume that Eclipse will follow that same pattern. The two main differences are, of course, that Eclipse is being released mid-week, and, of course, in the summertime rather than in the winter, but I don't expect the results to be that much different.

As I said, New Moon managed $142 million in its first three days, but the film itself managed only $296 overall. That means it got nearly HALF of its total take (48%) on its opening weekend. After its OW, New Moon dropped 72 percent in its second weekend, and 62 percent in its third. The reason for this obvious... this series has a pretty specific demographic, and by the time it's been out a week, everyone that has been clamoring for this film will already have seen it.

That being said, I fully expect Eclipse to pull in $136 million over the 3-day weekend, for a total of $202 million from Wednesday to Sunday. From there, it will suffer tremendous drops for the reasons stated above, as well as the fact that there are some pretty heavy hitters coming up (Despicable Me, Inception, Salt). I'll predict right around $300 million in total receipts, if my math is right.

If you didn't pick up Toy Story 3, you'd better pick up Twilight: Eclipse, because honestly, this may be the last film until winter that has a shot at $300 million. But if you want to shell out $32 for it in the July Ultimate leagues, it comes with a few provisos: namely, the huge drops will put a real crimp in its Top 5 total: I predict eleven of those. It will easily win PTA its first week, but after that, all bets are off. And as for User Rating... well, the original Twilight finished at 5.7, while New Moon was only able to manage a paltry 4.6. Eclipse will probably be fortunate to manage 5.0, as many IMDb users seem to take delight in voting titles like this a “1” just on principle. Which isn't fair, but there it is.

If you HAVE taken Toy Story 3 in Ultimate, however, I would probably recommend against taking Eclipse (but that's in the June leagues)... having both will leave you very little room to pick six other worthy films. In the July leagues, where Toy Story 3 doesn't enter factor in, I'd still at least consider other options... you can probably get similar numbers to Eclipse by picking two other, slightly smaller titles (like Despicable Me and Salt, for example), a move that would only cost a few more dollars and will likely result in more Top 5, more PTA and certainly a higher User Rating. In Box Office, $34 seems like a bargain for an almost surefire $300 million movie. Snap this one up, pronto!

The other film this weekend is The Last Airbender, which Paramount Pictures is released into just over 3,000 theaters, including many 3D locations. This film is based on the TV animated series Avatar: The Last Airbender (but couldn't itself just Avatar, obviously), and, from what I gather, covers pretty much the entire first season of that series.

The plot: each of the four “elements” of the Universe – Earth, Air, Fire and Water – have their own “nation”, and each nation has beings called “avatars” who are able to control the element that their nation represents. The lord of the Fire Nation, Ozai (Cliff Curtis) is waging war against the Earth and Water tribes, having pretty much already defeated the Air Nation.

The last remaining avatar of the Air Nation is a boy named Aang (Noah Ringer, making his film debut), who prefers an adventurous life over that of an avatar. But he must shoulder his responsibilities for the good of the world, and so he journeys to the North Pole with his friends Katara (Nicola Peltz) and Sokka (Jackson Rathbone, having a busy week) to seek out a Water-bender to teach them skills sufficient enough to defeat Ozai.

Airbender has a lot of things going for it. It has a young cast, so it could attract a lot of moviegoers under the age of 21 that aren't already seeing Eclipse. It's in 3D, which always adds a few million to the equation. And it's on a holiday weekend, a weekend that usually provides steady numbers at the box office. Perhaps the biggest question mark surrounding Airbender is the current reputation of its director, M. Night Shyamalan.

It was only eleven years ago when Shyamalan's major debut, The Sixth Sense, took the box office (and the world) by storm. He followed it up with the slightly-less-successful (but still terrific) Unbreakable in 2000, and top that off by finding success in 2002 with Signs. However, since then, Shyamalan's films have formed a downward spiral, each being less critically accepted and less financially successful than the last one: The Village had its moments, but fell short; Lady in the Water was a confusing mess; and The Happening was just flat out-and-out awful. The bloom has long since come off the rose. Frankly, I'm amazed that M. Night, given his recent history, had the chutzpah to put his name above the title in the trailer.

It's only because this movie looks fairly interesting that I'm seeing it. Because frankly, this is Shyamalan's VERY last chance to get me back on his bandwagon. I want to believe that he has actual talent as a director, and not that he was a flash-in-the-pan who just got lucky a few times. However, even given the release date, it's got two major opponents specifically aimed at young people to contend with. And even factoring in the 3D theaters, I don't think The Last Airbender will be able to overtake Toy Story 3 in its third week. In all, I only predict four Top 5 points, three or four PTA, and $80 million. It may represent a slight return-to-form for Shyamalan, but I wouldn't spend $17 on it (in either Ultimate or Box Office). I would almost believe that the similarly-themed The Sorcerer's Apprentice (also $17) has just as much potential, and it has less big names going against it.


My predictions for the weekend of July 2-4, 2010:

1. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - $136 million ($202 million 5-day)
2. Toy Story 3 - $33 million
3. The Last Airbender - $31 million
4. Grown Ups - $19 million
5. Knight & Day - $11 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the weekend of July 9th will feature six more titles, including: Despicable Me, the summer's last big animated film, starring Steve Carell as a villainous mastermind trying to juggle his nefarious plan to steal the moon while simultaneously taking care of three little girls; Predators, director Robert Rodriguez's attempt to revisit the sci-fi/action franchise (with no Aliens, please!) by dropping a group of mercenaries and convicts onto a planet where they must fight for their survival against a throng of the alien hunters; as well as limited-release films The Kids are All Right, Coundown to Zero, [Rec] 2 and Winnebago Man.

Later!

[Buscemi]

The Last Airbender is just another Prince of Persia. A fourth place finish on opening weekend would not surprise me.

And I wouldn't be surprised if Knight and Day had a pretty minimal drop. This is clearly intended to be a legs film and it's the only film in the market for its target audience (adult couples) until Eat, Pray, Love on August 13th.

[numbersix]

Tracking for Last Airbender is actually looking pretty good. Guess kids haven't seen Lady in the Water or The Happening. At the moment tracking is saying high 30's but see it going a little lower, so once gain you're bang on, Shryke

[thswrestler160]

so is the 136 supposed to be for its first 3 days or the 3 day weekend cuz it will easily make the 66 mil differince u predicted on opening day hell probably half that in midnight screenings. at my local theater eclipse sold out all of its midnight shows about a day after the tickets went on sale and the special 3am shows they just added are selling fast too. it wouldn't suprise me at all if it made 80 on its first day especially with the help of all the IMAX screens its getting.
my predictions
80/29/34/35/25 5day total:203 3day:94

just out of curiosity buscemi what was it again that makes you think knight and day will be a "legs" movie? was it the general lukewarm reaction audiences are having or the mediocre opening that makes you think that ANY movie outside of toy story will hold better than 50% next week let alone knight and day. also wouldn't Salt be considered kind of the same audience?

[Buscemi]

Knight and Day has its appeal from audiences that are looking for something to watch but don't want to see the usual teen or kid-oriented stuff. The type of people who come to the ticket office but don't know what to buy tickets for. Hence, married and older adult couples. The husband gets the action and the wife gets the romance. Both can also enjoy the comedy. Also, it's a holiday weekend (and the film's originally intended release date) so that's good for the film.

By the way, Salt is purely for male audiences. Jolie's biggest movies (Tomb Raider and Wanted) usually are.

[undeadmonkey]

I love Jolie, I'll be there opening weekend. plus my producing teacher has read the script and she said it was amazing, but who knows how much they changed.....

[thswrestler160]

"The husband gets the action and the wife gets the romance." hmm that sounds kinda like that one movie that comes out this week.

"Also, it's a holiday weekend (and the film's originally intended release date) so that's good for the film." That didn't stop just about every movie from taking a dive durring a holiday weekend last year when new moon opened.

when twilight opened only Role Models and changling held well, for new moon it was christmas carol. Good comedies and kids movies will be able to hold against a movie like this for everything thing else eclipse is just too big. It will definately help its chances that eclipse opens on wed but I just don't see it getting passed 65-70 mil overall.

[undeadmonkey]

i must agree with wrestler, the only way it could hold up is with awesome WOM, and it's not getting it, all i'm hearing is 'It's decent' 'it's kinda funny' 'it's not terrible' and that's not good enough for any movie.

[Buscemi]

But were any adult-oriented films out against Twilight or New Moon?

[thswrestler160]

2012, men who stare at goats, quantum of solace. After twilight most films are going to be smart enough to stay out of the way unless they wanna get run over.

[Buscemi]

But Quantum Of Solace and 2012 were purely guy movies. They didn't have the female appeal to keep those films from dropping quickly.

[thswrestler160]

how would having a female appeal make a movie hold better when a twilight movie come out? that is just plain stupid. if a movie has female appeal it would drop like a rock when a twilight movie opens those are simply proving my point. If a guy centered movie cant hold well against twilight how in the hell do you expect a movie with half its audience being female to hold up well?

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I've actually heard good things about Knight & Day, at least that it's better than you'd think.

I don't know about having good legs though, the next adult-oriented movie is Inception, not Eat Pray Love or Salt. And Despicable Me is being marketed out of the ass so I think that'll do pretty well too.

[thswrestler160]

well it had a 62% drop on monday the highest out of any movie playing right now so yeah its legs are looking great so far. trust me banks I saw it, it was ok at best. Cruise just comes off as creepy, Diaz is getting old, and sadly I think that killers was better. At least that one had a few laughs in it, the only parts of knight and day that would of been funny where in the trailers.

[Brockster]

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/widest ... PEN&p=.htm

Twilight is officially getting the widest release in box office history. It's getting much better reviews than New Moon. This is going to be huge, as much as most of you on here hate that.