As we close out June, there are only four movies to talk about. And no, one of those films is NOT The Twilight Saga: Eclipse, which technically opens on the 30th. But, for the sake of game play, we had the release date “adjusted” to July 1st, so that it could be included in the July-September leagues. But don't fear... that first day's gross (likely to be off the charts) will still be counted in the final tally!
The first big movie of the weekend actually opens on Wednesday, June 23rd. That film is called Knight and Day, and it is an action/comedy from Fox. It is being directed by James Mangold, who is delving into full-on action for the first time, having already done drama (Girl, Interrupted and Walk the Line), romantic comedy (Kate & Leopold), a spooky thriller (Identity) and a western (3:10 to Yuma).
Obviously, this film has been plugged heavily because of its stars, Tom Cruise and Cameron Diaz. I originally thought that the film was named so because they were the names of the two main characters, but no. It's been tough trying to make sense of the plot due to limited descriptions on various websites along with trailers that are all over the place, but here goes: Cruise plays Roy Miller, a rogue super spy who uses the innocent June Havens (Diaz) as a mule to smuggle some super-frammistat energy device past airport security. But because he is being surveilled everywhere he goes, the entire complement of passengers and crew on the plane try to kill him, but Roy succeeds in turning the tables on his foes while June is in the john. (Yeah, I know.)
From there on out, it's less about logic and a functional plot then it is about spectacular stunts, fight scenes, and most especially, the on-screen chemistry between Cruise and Diaz. In the one and only review on RT (from reelrave.com), said chemistry is smoldering hot (unlike in Vanilla Sky), and both actors throw caution to the wind in this balls-out action-fest, which features scenes in various exotic foreign locales all over the world. The supporting cast includes Peter Sarsgaard, Paul Dano, Viola Davis and Maggie Grace.
Both Variety and Hollywood Reporter, according to Wikipedia, have reviewed this film negatively, mostly due to the slapped-together plot, and I'm sure they won't be the only ones. Plus, when you factor in Tom Cruise's popularity, which, let's face it, ain't what it used to be, along with the 2:10 running time, and I think you have a movie on a level with The A-Team... which is to say, good but not great. Will it even make back its reported $125 million budget? As far as domestic receipts go, I have to say no.
Knight and Day will run you $17 in the June Ultimate Leagues, and that's way too much to spend. It will be coming out in fewer theaters than Grown Ups (which I'll get to in a sec) – just over 3,000 screens, according to Box Office Mojo – and it has zero chance to beat Toy Story 3, which will likely suffer a minimal drop in its second week. That means that it will finish no higher than third, and likely drop to fifth next week when Eclipse and The Last Airbender hit theaters. That means a total of four Top 5 points, maybe a couple of PTA, a so-so Rating near 7.0 and maybe $80 million. $18 in Box Office doesn't look any better, so pass on this one.
Prospects for Grown Ups are significantly better... depending on how you look at it. As I said, it will be bowing in more theaters than Knight and Day (about 3,200), and it has enough of a winning formula to have good odds of being a success. It comes from Happy Madison Productions, whose last four films (You Don't Mess With the Zohan, Bedtime Stories, Paul Blart: Mall Cop and even The House Bunny, to an extent) have been quite successful. It's being directed by Dennis Dugan, whose last two films (all with Adam Sandler) – Zohan and I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry – have been blockbuster summer hits.
And not only is Sandler in Grown Ups as well, but he's brought with him some certified (and some dubious) comedic talent. Along with Sandler, you have Chris Rock (The Longest Yard), Kevin James (Chuck & Larry), David Spade (SNL), and Rob Schneider (everything Adam's ever done since birth). Those names, put together, are more than enough to draw a significant crowd... and given that the film seems to be entirely about physical and scatological humor, a lot of that crowd will probably be teenagers.
The premise: Lenny (Sandler), Eric (James), Kurt (Rock), Marcus (Spade) and Robert (Schneider) are introduced to us as kids, when they are all part of a junior high basketball team that ends up winning the state championship. But the friends inevitably go their separate ways. Fast-forward thirty years, when their beloved coach (Blake Clark, who just finished playing Slinky Dog in Toy Story 3) passes away, and the now-grown group reunites for the first time for the funeral.
Of course, this outing is one of those “fun” funerals, and all five have brought their wives and kids with them. Determined to recapture some of their youthful spirit, the group then proceed to... look like middle-aged men attempting to recapture some of their youthful spirit. (Sorry, I got nothing else.) Honestly, I've seen the trailer a million times already, how about you? Is Kevin James bouncing off that tree still funny to you? Does the prospect of watching grown men pee in a public pool still tickle your fancy?
Well, being roughly the same age as most of the stars of this film, I'm really not that jazzed about seeing Grown Ups, but that's just me. To a preteen/teen/young adult, that stuff NEVER gets old. Throw in a supporting cast including a few incredibly hot actress (Salma Hayek, Maria Bello, Maya Rudolph), a couple of out-of-work-SNL comedians (Tim Meadows, Norm McDonald), Steve Buscemi, and a cameo appearance from... GARY BUSEY?! Well, I take it all back, this film is going to be MONSTER!
Seriously, though, Grown Ups will probably do okay; I predict $33 million in its first three days. There is a possibility that it will have reasonable legs... there are no live-action comedies coming out for an entire month, and films like this are pretty much review-proof, so there's no reason it can't make $100 million. Which means that for $16 in Box Office, you may have a very good pick on your hands. However, $16 in Ultimate comes with some baggage: you're not likely to get much more than six Top 5 points and a few PTA, and a Rating of 6.5 would be phenomenally good, so exercise caution.
And now, a word about this weekend's two limited-release features:
Restrepo ($4 Ult) – This is a documentary by American journalist Sebastian Junger and British photographer Tim Hetherington, who were in Afghanistan on an assignment from Vanity Fair magazine. It follows a platoon of US soldiers, who has been deployed to Restrepo, a remote outpost in Afghanistan's Korengal Valley... an assignment considered one of the most dangerous in the US military, as it is right on the front lines. And make no mistake, the filmmakers were in just as much danger during the filming of Restrepo; there are no interviews with generals or diplomats here. Just the gritty truth: realism and death.
Why should you SERIOUSLY consider taking this film for your Ultimate slates, at the low price of only $4? Well, it's debuting in only two theaters (in N.Y. and L.A.) this week, and expanding to seven screens next week, so the possibility of back-to-back weeks earning PTA points is very possible. Also, it won the Grand Jury Prize for best documentary at Sundance, it's got a perfect score at RT so far (on only six reviews), and it has a very good Rating (8.1, but on only 51 votes). Plus, there's really not that much going on this weekend. Toy Story 3 and Cyrus could hold on for more points, and probably will, but I'd be surprised if Restrepo got shut out completely. I know modern-day war films are often a tough sell (despite The Hurt Locker winning Best Picture), but on this few screens, I wouldn't bet against it. At all.
Wild Grass ($4 Ult) – Wild Grass is the English translation of a French film called Les herbes folles. It won a Special Jury Prize at Cannes, and was an opening-night selection for the New York Film Festival. It is directed by renowned French helmer Alain Resnais (Last Year at Marienbad).
The film begins simply enough: a woman named Marguerite (Sabine Azema) gets her purse snatched, but her wallet is later found and returned to her by Georges Palet (Andre Dussollier). She is grateful, at first... but when Georges becomes fixated on her, she is understandably put off. But this film does not take the noir-turn that it seems to. Just watch the trailer and judge for yourself.
This might be a very good pick (French films usually are), but it's only gotten so-so reception (12/17 positive reviews at RT, 6.7 Rating on IMDb with 571 votes). It, too, is being shown on only two screens, so there's that. It's more of a gamble than Restrepo, but it could indeed pay dividends if you're game.
My predictions for the weekend of June 25-27, 2010:
1. Toy Story 3 - $64 million
2. Grown Ups - $33 million
3. Knight & Day - $25 million ($44 million five-day)
4. The Karate Kid - $16 million
5. The A-Team - $7 million
Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, only two films to talk about, and both are wide-release films. The first is The Twilight Saga: Eclipse, the third chapter in the best-selling teenage-vampire-werewolf-love-story-epic-saga-thing; and the other is The Last Airbender, a fantasy/action film directed by once-promising director M. Night Shyamalan.
Later!
