SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/18

[Shrykespeare]

I've got a lot to cover today, as the weekend of June 18th is a very crowded one, so I'll dispense with the usual introductory pleasantries, save to say a hearty congratulations to The Karate Kid for having the third-best opening weekend of the summer so far, behind only Iron Man 2 and Shrek Forever After. I mean, seriously, who would have believed that a rehash of a modest hit from the 80's would take so well with a new generation? Kudos to Jaden Smith and Jackie Chan for a very good movie.

In this age of uncertainty, and in this game especially, there are very few certainties. But if there has been one, and only one, rock-solid dead-bang certainty in the last ten to fifteen years, it is the remarkable consistency of Pixar Animation to churn out hit after hit after hit. But what makes their feat even more remarkable is the fact that not only are their films huge box office hits, but they are almost all critical raves. (Last year's Oscar-nominated Up was among the best-reviewed films – of ANY genre – of 2009.) Pixar has fielded ten films in the last ten years, and not one, NOT ONE, has flopped. Most are held as being among the best animated movies ever, and whose DVD versions will grace the shelves of millions of moviegoers for decades to come.

Will there come a day when Pixar creates a film that is not a success? Well, I suppose anything is possible. But that day is certainly not now, because any fool that wants to bet against Toy Story 3 is just asking for it. But before I talk about this film, let's crunch some numbers.

The original Toy Story, Pixar's very first film, debuted in November 1995 to a modest opening weekend of $29.1 million, en route to a domestic total of $191.8 million. Not too shabby, right? Four years later, they released Toy Story 2 (their third film), which nearly doubled the OW of the original ($57.4M) and raked in $245.8 million. As of this moment, Toy Story is still the only Pixar work to spawn a sequel (although Cars 2 is on tap for next year), and it still remains one of the most beloved-by-kids-and-adults films of all time.

All of you should know the premise – a young boy named Andy has a motley collection of toys, which, when there are no people around, come alive and interact with each other. Led by a cowboy doll named Woody (Tom Hanks) and astronaut/action figure hero Buzz Lightyear (Tim Allen), and including supporting characters Mr. Potatohead (Don Rickles), Rex the Dinosaur (Wallace Shawn), Hamm the Piggy Bank (the ever-present John Ratzenberger), cowgirl Jessie (Joan Cusack) and Slinky Dog (Blake Clark, taking over for the late Jim Varney), just to name a few, the gang have formed a tight and functional community all within the confines of Andy's bedroom.

Of course, all good things come to an end, especially for toys... This time around, Andy is now all grown up and headed off to college. Which means that our heroes, no longer needed, are boxed up and sent to a day-care center where they are welcomed with open arms by the center's current denizens... at first, at least. I haven't gathered much from the trailers, but it seems that there is something sinister going on, and our heroes must find a way to not only escape, but find a place where they can belong for years to come (and probably set to another Oscar-nominated song by Randy Newman).

The following will not surprise you: every critic who has reviewed this film at RT (seven so far) has loved this film. It currently sports a rating of 9.1 at IMDb with over 500 votes (but don't be surprised if it finishes with over 100,000 votes, the other two Toy Storys did. It's debuting in a reported 3,900 theaters, but when you factor in 3D and 3D IMAX, I wouldn't be surprised if that number was well over 4,000.

I expect a monstrous first three days for Toy Story 3. Perhaps not on the level of Iron Man 2 ($120 million), but close. I will actually be conservative and guess $98 million in its first three days. It will more than likely win its first two weekends, because I am highly doubtful that either Grown Ups or Knight & Day will have the juice to surpass Toy Story 3 in its second week.

Toy Story 3 is $33 in both of the June leagues (Ultimate and Box Office). Compare that to the other heavy hitter of the season, Twilight Saga: Eclipse, which is one dollar less in Ultimate and one dollar more in Box Office. But truthfully, I expect Eclipse to do about 40% of its business in its first three days, whereas I predict Toy Story 3 will keep earning beaucoup bucks well into August. I predict seventeen Top 5 points, nine PTA, a User Rating around 8.5 and $310 million overall. I don't know how much clearer I can spell it out for you... there is simply NO WAY ON EARTH you can lose by picking this.

You know, it's almost fitting that the only wide-release companion to Toy Story 3 is Jonah Hex, and the reasons should be obvious... as good as Toy Story 3 is, as far as its prospects as a game player and as a moviegoer go, Jonah Hex is just... that... bad. I mean, holy schnikes, Batman. It was only about six weeks ago that Warner Bros. even put out a trailer for this film. There was talk about dumping it in a harmless fall time slot. But no, it's coming out now, and so much the better: now we can start the process of putting it behind us.

Comic-book geeks will recognize the name as a very popular DC Comics character that debuted in the early 70's. Created by John Albano and Tony DeZuniga, Hex is a bounty hunter who patrols the Old West. His face is horribly scarred, but despite his off-putting appearance, he vows to live his life by protecting the innocent. He may or may not also have some sort of mystical power, which has enabled him to survive numerous brushes with death.

In the film version, we get the story from the beginning. Hex (John Brolin) is a simple rancher who is set upon by Quentin Turnbull (John Malkovich), an evil man who murders Hex's family and brands his face, causing the hideous scars you see in the poster/trailer. After laying low for a while, Hex returns, seeking revenge and packing some pretty impressive (and anachronistic on a Wild, Wild West scale) firepower. Along for the ride is Leila (Transformers vixen Megan Fox), a gun-toting prostitute and Hex's love interest. I'm sure we can count on her to steam up the screen while we fantasize about her impending death at the hands of Michael Bay. Also in the cast are Michael Fassbender, comedian Will Arnett and Fringe's Lance Reddick.

Look, I'm not saying that this film has NO entertainment value, when you compare this film with what's out now, as well as what's coming, it just doesn't hold up. A cheesy action/western may have had a shot at success five to ten years ago, but now? Ain't gonna happen.

It will only run you $11 in the June Ultimate leagues ($10 in Box Office), but despite being shoved into 2,700 theaters, I expect horrible reviews and equally horrible reception. Maybe not MacGruber bad, but maybe Marmaduke bad. I envision two Top 5 points (and that's being generous), no PTA, a Rating in the 5's, and $30 million in total receipts. Don't take this film. And if you want to see it, wait for DVD when you can press “mute” during Megan Fox's “acting” scenes.

There are five, count 'em, FIVE, limited release features this week. I frankly don't expect any of them to come close to Toy Story 3 as far as PTA is concerned, but there may be one or two that have the potential to grab enough points to merit its purchase.

Cyrus ($6 Ult, $3 BO) – This Sundance selection has gotten terrific reviews so far (10/12 at RT) and has a terrific Rating (7.7 with nearly 300 votes), so I'll start here. Cyrus stars John C. Reilly as John, a recently divorced man who meets, and becomes instantly taken with, a woman named Molly (Marisa Tomei). Convinced that she is the perfect match for him, John is confident that true happiness is right around the corner....

Enter Cyrus (Jonah Hill), Molly's grown son, who is very protective of his mother (and possibly not “all there”, if you get my drift). At first merely passive-aggressive, Cyrus's attempts to thwart John's relationship with Molly soon escalate. And then escalate again. And then... well, whatever happens, the critics agree that it's very funny in a “quirky” way, and give full marks to the directors, Jay and Mark Duplass.

This film is scheduled for release this Friday in New York and Los Angeles only (four screens total), with slight expansions in each of the next two weeks. It most likely will not win the PTA this weekend, but it could easily take second, as well as hang on in future weeks. Its Rating sure won't hurt you should it miss the mark, but at $6, this is a fairly expensive gamble.

I Am Love ($4 Ult) – This is an Italian film starring English actress Tilda Swinton as Emma Recchi, a Russian emigre who is married to Tancredi (Pippo Delbono), an Italian aristocrat who has just been handed the keys to the family textile business by the family's patriarch. (Beyond that, if you want to know the plot of the film, you'll have to do your own research. Based on the trailer – which features very little spoken words – and the description, I can't tell much about what's going on. Suffice it to say, the critics love this one as well (19/23 at RT), and it too has a very good Rating (7.3 with 465 votes).

This is exactly the kind of movie that can come out of nowhere and surprise, as many foreign-language films sometimes do. It's less expensive than Cyrus, it too is being released only in N.Y. and L.A., and its a critical darling, so if you decide to spring for this film, it probably won't hurt you too much. And it might even reward you.

The Killer Inside Me ($4 Ult) – Oh, how I wish I could recommend this. Michael Winterbottom (Welcome to Sarajevo) directs this film, which on its surface would seem to have a lot going for it... a tantalizing premise and a stellar cast, for starters. Based on the 1952 Jim Thompson novel of the same name, Killer stars Casey Affleck as Robert...oops, sorry, I mean Lou Ford, a Deputy Sheriff in a small Texas town in the 1950's. The general opinion of him is that he's a rather plain individual, but in truth? He is actually a serial killer who has killed in the past, but escaped justice because his adopted brother took the fall for his crimes. And now the “sickness” that has lain dormant inside him is threatening to surface again, which could mean dire consequences for all those around him. The outstanding supporting cast includes Jessica Alba as Joyce, a prostitute (wow, Jessica Alba AND Megan Fox as hookers this week...), The Mentalist's Simon Baker, as well as Kate Hudson, Bill Pullman, Ned Beatty, Elias Koteas and Liam Aiken.

Like I said, I'd LIKE to recommend this. However, the professional critics are severely split on this one (20/35 positive), and even numbersix expressed reservations himself. It will only be shown on one screen according to BOM, but despite that, I'd be surprised if any PTA points were in store for this film. Noir thrillers, even ones that are period pieces, are hard sells with the indie crowd. It's got a good rating (6.7 with over 500 votes), but I'd still pass.

The Nature of Existence ($3 Ult) – Who are we? Why are we here? These and other hypothetical questions will be explored in this documentary from filmmaker Peter Nygard (Trekkies). Unlike Bill Maher's Religulous, however, Nygard seems to walk both sides of the road, interviewing not only religious but scientific advocates, as well as ordinary people, searching for, I don't know, answers (if there is such a thing)?

There have been four reviews of this film so far (all positive), but I just don't know. Documentaries can often be good sources of PTA, but this just doesn't strike me as being one of them. Scheduled for release in four theaters this weekend (all in New York), it could very well surprise, but I wouldn't count on it. Do people really want to hear questions asked that have no viable answers? I'd pass.

Let It Rain ($3 Ult) – Another foreign film, this time a French one directed by Agnes Jaoui (The Taste of Others). Let it Rain (aka “Parlez-moi de la puie”) is a comedy about middle-class life, set in a small town in Provence. Following the death of her mother, feminist author Agathe (Jaoui, also starring) comes to Paris to sell the home where she and her sister grew up. There, she meets Michel (Jean-Pierre Bacri), who wants to make a TV documentary about her, while simultanously having an affair with Agathe's sister. Yowch, that takes balls...

Again, a well-reviewed film (6/7). Again, a good screen county (two). Again, a French film, which have done very well in the past few months (Micmacs, Coco Chanel & Igor Stravinsky). This might be worth a look if you're looking for something to slip into that eighth and final spot on your slate. The User Rating isn't terrific (6.3 with 629 votes), but you could do worse.

Well, between Cyrus, I Am Love and Let it Rain, it may be providential to just skip all of them and stick with Toy Story 3. Picking small films is so hit-and-miss, you might be better off waiting for a weekend when there is less to sift through.


My predictions for the weekend of June 18-20, 2010:

1. Toy Story 3 - $98 million
2. The Karate Kid - $30 million
3. The A-Team - $15 million
4. Jonah Hex - $12 million
5. Shrek Forever After - $10 million


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we close out June with four more films, including: Knight and Day, an action comedy starring Tom Cruise and Cameron Diaz; Grown Ups, the latest Happy Madison production starring Adam Sandler, Chris Rock, Kevin James, Rob Schneider and David Spade; as well as limited-release films Restrepo and Wild Grass.

Later!

[Buscemi]

On Jonah Hex: if Splice could only manage a $7 million opening with better reviews and a similar amount of theatres (not to mention more advertising than Jonah Hex), I'd be surprised if this got a $10 million opening.

[thswrestler160]

98 million opening and only a finish of 310? thats a multiplier of 3.1 the lowest for any pixar movie is wall-e with a 3.5 their average multiplier is around 4. I see no reason why toy story 3 will be the first of their films to have normal drops. I doubt it will finish with less than 350 unless the box office really is doomed this summer

[numbersix]

Good predictions this week, Shryke. There's debates that due to the disappointing BO in May, that Toy Story 3 could do even better and open to 110 Mil, but I think you're pretty much on the ball. Overall, though, this should easily make 350 mil by the end of the summer.

It's hard to tell about Jonah Hex. Industry talk has been bad, but do general audiences know or care about that? It could do better than expected, but not much beyond 15 mil OW.

And despite my review, I think The Killer Inside Me will earn some PTA points. Its 1 screen, its controversy, and its cast (Hudson/Affleck the Talented/Alba) may ensure it beats the well-reviewed Cyrus. At worst it'll get 2 PTA points, behind TS3, Cyrus, and Winter's Bone.

[Brockster]

Early tracking has Toy Story at 108M and Jonah Hex at 8M.

[Buscemi]

Final run time of Jonah Hex: 82 minutes (that is with credits). Yep, it's dead.

[Buscemi]

Movie On The Tomatometer:

Toy Story 3 100%
Jonah Hex 13% (9% with Top Critics, meanwhile Roger Ebert has not reviewed the film yet)

[BanksIsDaFuture]

When my theater only got ONE print of Jonah Hex, I knew it was in trouble. We haven't got a single print of any movie since Ocean's. We got two prints of MacGruber, Furry Vengeance, Marmaduke, Splice, The Back-Up Plan, etc.

Plus it's the only movie we haven't had a midnight screening scheduled since the summer started - yes we even had one for Marmaduke and Just Wright.

I wouldn't be surprised if it opened to MacGruber numbers.

[Buscemi]

Early Weekend Estimates:

Toy Story 3 $118 million
Jonah Hex $8.5 million

If this number holds true, Toy Story 3 more than makes up for my draft flop of Marmaduke and pickup flop of Splice. I hope that Grown Ups continues my momentum.

[Shrykespeare]

BOM Friday Estimates:

Toy Story 3 - $41M
Karate Kid - $8.9M
A-Team - $4.2M
Greek - $2M
Jonah Hex - $1.95M

[Shrykespeare]

BOM Sunday Weekend Estimates

Top 5:
5 points - Toy Story 3, $109 million
4 points - The Karate Kid, $29 million
3 points - The A-Team, $13.8 million
2 points - Get Him to the Greek, $6.1 million
1 point - Shrek Forever After, $5.5 million
Jonah Hex, $5.1 million (8th place)

So, I was fairly close with TS3, TKK and TAT, and overestimated JH, which couldn't even match MacGruber. SFA drops 65% because TS3 took all the kids away rom it, but it remains in the Top 5 for one more week.

PTA:
5 points - Cyrus, $45K
4 points - Toy Story 3, $27K
3 points - I Am Love, $15.6K
2 points - Winter's Bone, $8.9K
1 point - Karate Kid, $7.9K

No word yet on The Killer Inside Me, The Nature of Existence or Let It Rain, but those are pretty big PTA numbers right there, so I'd be surprised if any of them made it.


User Ratings:

Toy Story 3 - 9.4 (over 6,000 votes)
Jonah Hex - 4.6
Cyrus - 7.5
I Am Love - 7.2
The Killer Inside Me - 6.6
The Nature of Existence - none (yet)
Let It Rain - 6.3

[numbersix]

I'd say Killer Inside Me pulled in about 12-16K. Good predictions in general, you're on quite the roll!

[undeadmonkey]

I'm surprised at how frontloaded Toy Story 3 was over the weekend. but Pixar really has great legs and that's where they make most of their money.

[transformers2]

Jonah Hex did even worse than I expected. My expectations weren't even that high. This is proably the bomb of the year.

[Brockster]

The actuals are in and there are no number on The Killer Inside Me...are we sure this came out last weekend??