SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/11

[Shrykespeare]

Waht-wahhhhh. Oh well, so my lucky predictatory streak came to an ungainly end this week when Marmaduke, which I thought would be this summer's Beverly Hills Chihuahua, instead turned into this year's Land of the Lost. I guess George Lopez can't back the right horse every time...

Speaking of ungainly, that pretty much describes most of what this summer has had to offer. Oh, sure, Iron Man 2 will indeed pass $300 million some time in the next couple of weeks, but other than that, you'd be hard-pressed to find any examples of rampant success. Even Shrek Forever After, which, like Iron Man 2, has managed to win its first three weekends, will still struggle just to make it to $250 million, which will make it far and away (or maybe just Far Far Away, snicker) the least successful of the franchise.

June is typically a tentpole month... nothing earth-shattering, just some pretty good stuff to bridge the gap between the titans of May and July. However, this is not a “typical” June... rather than fiddle with a May release, Pixar has elected to bring Toy Story 3 out a full week BEFORE Independence day weekend, where it will duel with the third Twilight movie Eclipse, which is scheduled to be released on June 30th. You can be sure that those two titles will both be getting huge release platforms (upwards of 4,000 screens). But that is one and two weeks in the future. What about this week?

In 1984, a movie called The Karate Kid came out. It starred 23-year-old Ralph Macchio as a bullied teen who is taught to defend himself by the wise, wizened Mr. Miyagi (Pat Morita). It was a great success, earning $90 million and spawning three sequels (including an ill-advised one with Hilary Swank replacing Macchio).

Well, the kids who enjoyed that film now have kids of their own, and it's quite possible that they will be seeing the latest “re-imagining” of The Karate Kid, which is being brought to theaters courtesy of Sony/Columbia and director Harold Zwart (The Pink Panther 2). On the surface, the story itself seems quite similar to the original, with a few notable changes: 1) the locale, 2) the fact that the young hero of the film is a preteen, not a teenager, and most notably 3) the fact that the martial art of choice for this film is actually KUNG FU and NOT karate. Of course, they dickered with the idea of calling it “The Kung Fu Kid”, but let's face it, it doesn't back the same punch. So it's a little bit of false advertising, who cares?

The story: Dre Parker (Jaden Smith) is the most popular kid in Detroit, Michigan, but when his single mother (Taraji P. Henson) is forced to take a job in China, Dre finds himself uprooted and plopped in a place where outsiders are not particularly welcome, particularly Dre's age. Despite the language barrier, Dre becomes friends with a girl named Mei Ying (Wenwen Han), but soon runs afoul of a local bully kid named Cheng. Not very adept at self-defense, Dre finds himself a target of frequent beatings. Enter Mr. Han (Jackie Chan), a local maintenance man – but who is secretly a kung fu master himself – makes a deal with the bullies' master that he will train Dre and face the bullies in an upcoming tournament.

From there, it seems pretty cut and dried: Han trains Dre while we admire his zen techniques and the picturesque Chinese countryside and landmarks, all leading up to the (predictable?) conclusion. But that's not a deal-breaker... underdog stories are always good entertainment, if you can get past the idea of children beating the crap out of each other.

The Karate Kid will be shown in just over 3,400 theaters this Friday. It's been advertised quite well, and it's only rated PG, which means that parents needn't worry about any truly disturbing images or profanity. The running time, however, is fairly long (2:06), but that shouldn't put too many people off... as long as Jackie Chan plays it serious for once. And as for Jaden Smith? Well, he's Will's boy, and he's cute as the dickens, and who knows when Big Willie will start acting again (he's been off the radar since Seven Pounds two Christmases ago)?

It seems highly unlikely that both this AND The A-Team will flop, to the point where Shrek 4 will win the box office for a fourth straight week. But which of the two will come out on top? Both seem to have equal appeal, have been advertised equally well, and have recognizable stars. However, since it seems that Kid will have more screens showing it, I will give the nod to it.

For $15 (in either June league), you could pull in nine or ten Top 5 points, several PTA and a decent User Rating. I predict $33 million in its first three days, and it could have decent legs even though it will lose a lot of repeat business among small children (Toy Story 3) the following week and teenagers (Eclipse) the following week. It could still break $100 million easily, though.

Many old TV shows from the 60's and 70's have been turned into feature films. Some have been done very well (Mission: Impossible), but most have pretty much sucked (Dukes of Hazzard being the first to come to mind). Let's face it: some shows simply don't belong on the big screen. However, now we're starting to move into the 80's, the era when I really started getting into prime-time TV when I was a youth. And The A-Team was one of my favorites.

The heroes were an “elite Special Forces unit” who were “framed for a crime they didn't commit”. They promptly escaped from a maximum security prison, surviving as “soldiers of fortune”. It was pretty tame compared to a lot of today's shows, really: I mean, they were constantly on the run from the military authorities, but it seemed that anyone “in need” could flag them down with relative ease. Each show featured a cartoonish bad guy, ended with a shootout/explosionfest during which NO ONE EVER DIED, and the team said goodbye and hit the road five minutes before the government showed up. And lather, rinse, repeat for five seasons. But when you're fifteen, who cares? It was cool!

That's basically the set-up for the big-screen A-Team. Led by Col. “Hannibal” Smith (Liam Neeson), and including Lt. Templeton “Faceman” Peck (Bradley Cooper), Capt. “Howling Mad” Murdock (District 9's Sharlto Copley), and Sgt. B.A. “Bad Attitude” Baracus (mixed-martial-arts champ Quinton “Rampage” Jackson), you can bet that Fox will not skimp on the ammo or munitions being used. Patrick Wilson and Jessica Biel also co-star. And if you're wondering if any of the original TV show stars will be appearing, they answer is yes. Both Dwight Schultz and Dirk Benedict (the original Murdock and Face) will appear, but their appearances are apparently so brief, if you blink you might miss them. Mr. T (the original B.A.) declined to participate, and the original Hannibal, George Peppard, passed away in 1994.

Box Office Mojo has The A-Team bowing in just over 3,000 theaters. It's rated PG-13, which means that the violence and profanity are probably quite toned-down. I, for one, am looking forward to seeing it, though I'm not sure it's the best pick for your slates. It'll run you $18 (in both June leagues), a full $3 more than Karate Kid, which means that I cannot fully recommend it. It may give Kid a run for its money if early reviews are good, but right now, I will predict $28 million for The A-Team's OW, along with seven Top 5 points, one or two PTA, a rating around 6.6, and about $90 million overall.

And now, a little bit about this weekend's four limited-release features:

Winter's Bone ($5 Ult) – Well, you won't have to go far to find my PTA pick of the week – perhaps the month – here. While it's true that picking limited-release films for PTA purposes is little more than a crap-shoot, it's still a good idea to pick titles that have a lot going for it. And this title has everything going for it, believe you me.

Firstly, it's gotten HUGELY favorable reviews (10/10 at RT so far) and it has a terrific User Rating (8.3 with 166 votes) at the moment, so there's that. Secondly, it's being shown on only four screens this weekend, which is prime real estate for high PTA numbers. And thirdly, it won the award for Best Picture AND Best Screenplay at this year's Sundance Film Festival. Some might say that Sundance films often find difficulty finding an audience in the real world, but even so, it's hard to fault a film with a track record like this.

Based on the novel by Daniel Woodrell, Winter's Bone centers on the character of Ree Dolly (Jennifer Lawrence), a 17-year-old girl who is forced to track her father through the Ozark Mountains after he places the family's home up as his bail bond... and then skips town. But tracking him down is made even more difficult by the reticence of some of the scarier members of her extended family, who suggest that kicking over rocks can only lead to something worse.

Part crime-thriller, part noir, and shot entirely on location in southwestern Missouri, director Debra Granik has been racking up kudos from every critic who's reviewed this film. If my recommendations mean anything at all, I would seriously consider taking Winter's Bone. It's only $5, and really, what more can a film offer that can entice you?

Coco Chanel and Igor Stravinsky ($4 Ult) – If there is one other film this week that could upset the proverbial apple-cart, it just might be this one. You could reason that it helps that it is a French film, and French films often draw lots of arthouse patrons (just look at how well Micmacs is doing); also, it's a film about early 20th-century pioneer fashion designer Coco Chanel, and if you remember, a previous film about her life (Coco Avant Chanel) did extremely well last fall, pulling in eight PTA points during its run; and finally, it too was at Sundance... in fact, it was the very last film shown during that festival.

The film basically traces the affair that occurred between Chanel (Anna Mouglalis) and conductor/composer Stravinsky (Mads Mikkelsen) in Paris in 1920, an affair that had to be kept secret because Igor was still married at the time... in fact, it took place under Igor's wife's very nose, and scandals like that tend to be very messy.

Directed by Jan Kounen (Blueberry), Coco & Igor will be shown on only a few select screens in Los Angeles and New York, though it could expand to other cities in forthcoming weeks. I would probably recommend this film just as highly as Winter's Bone, were it not for the fact that the reception it's gotten from professional critics has been less than inspiring (10/19 positives at RT and only 6.3 at IMDb with over 400 votes). I have to believe that its overall chances just aren't as good.

Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Undead ($3 Ult) – This film, which has suffered numerous postponements, finally graces theaters. According to the film's website, it's been shown at countless film festivals already, which means that critics have had ample time to get a look at it, and most of them haven't liked what they've seen.

Rosencrantz and Guildenstern, for those not in the know, are characters from Shakespeare's “Hamlet” that are famous for being so secondary to the entire story that they may not even be there at all, and whether that's the case here or not, I find myself not even caring. The story is not an adaptation of “Hamlet” so much as a story ABOUT adapting “Hamlet” into a twisted parody of itself, wherein all the major characters become vampires.

This film, too, has suffered the wrath of most critics who've sat through it. Its RT and IMDb scores are “44% Fresh” (on 4/9 reviews) and 5.6 (on 62 votes), and when the most recognizable names in the cast are Ralph Macchio (how's THAT for irony) and Jeremy Sisto (looking like he's playing the same role as he did on Law & Order), all signs point to this being a giant turkey. Pass.

Kings of the Evening ($2 Ult) – This film has also been showcased at several film festivals (primary African-American ones), but I could still find little info on it. It is a story that takes place in Depression-era Georgia, and it is about a group of men that don their best duds and compete in a men-only fashion ball, with a $5 prize going to the best-dressed gent (dubbed the “king of the evening”). Sounds kind of like a 1920's anti-Full Monty to me...

There are a couple of Primetime Emmy Award winners in the cast (Glynn Turman, Lynn Whitefield) as well as some eye candy in the form of actor/model Tyson Beckford. Steven Williams, Linara Washington and Bruce McGill also co-star. But honestly, I don't think there is enough of a draw here to even come close to making a splash. It does have a 7.4 Rating currently, but that's with only a few votes, and I have to believe that there are other picks (even $2 ones) that hold more promise.


My predictions for the weekend of June 11-13, 2010:

1. The Karate Kid - $33 million
2. The A-Team - $28 million
3. Shrek Forever After - $15 million
4. Get Him to the Greek - $10 million
5. Killers - $9 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, Pixar Studios takes center stage once again with Toy Story 3, in the (almost certain) hope that the latest tale of Woody, Buzz and the gang can make it eleven straight hits; Jonah Hex, an adaptation of the DC comic book series starring Josh Brolin, John Malkovich and Megan Fox; as well as FIVE limited releases, including Cyrus, a comedy starring John C. Reilly and Jonah Hill, and The Killer Inside Me, a thriller starring Casey Affleck, Kate Hudson and Jessica Alba.

Later!

[Buscemi]

The A-Team will kill The Karate Kid at the box office. The A-Team has much more buzz around it and despite the positive tests on The Karate Kid (often tests don't mean anything, test audiences fucked up I Am Legend and tried to fuck up The Road), negative word on the film being an in-name-only remake will hurt it. Also, I've hardly seen any promotion.

As for Coco and Igor, I feel that it came too late in the Coco Chanel appreciation mania sweepstakes (2009 had Coco Before Chanel with Audrey Tautou and the miniseries Coco Chanel with Shirley Maclaine). Indeed, Sony shelved the film for more than a year so that it wouldn't overshadow Coco Before Chanel. Also, Audrey Tautou is an easier sell than Mads Mikkelsen (the only name that I recognize and probably best known as the villain from Casino Royale).

[Shrykespeare]

I've seen tons of promotion, Boosh. Like, commercials for it almost hourly on numerous network and cable channels.

[J.I.]

Yeah, the Karate Kid is advertising WAY more than The A-Team. That said, I am still hearing a lot of hype on The A-Team, so I do think it will go a good bit higher than $28 million. I see $43 million for The A-Team and $32 million for The Karate Kid.

[transformers2]

I think it should be a tight weekend overall. The A-Team and The Karate Kid will both open in high 20's to mid 30's. Don't know who will come out on top.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I think Karate Kid will outperform A-Team too. Seen tons more promotion for the former, plus I think there's more interest in a remake of The Karate Kid than a remake of The A-Team.

[numbersix]

BOM is crediting Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Undead as having opened this weekend (and it actually would have received 5 PTA points!), so not sure what's going on there.

[Brockster]

I saw that too...I had it on most of my slates and then dropped it when it got moved...I hate when that happens!

[Shrykespeare]

Damn. It.

I didn't even see that. How did it move and I didn't even notice?

Well, if it's any consolation, practically no one had it anyway.

[Ron Burgundy]

A-Team 40Mil
Karate Kid 30Mil

Rosencrantz....who cares?

[Shrykespeare]

BOM's Friday Estimates:

Karate Kid, $18.8M
A-Team, $9.65M
Shrek 4, $4.4M
Greek, $3.3M
Killers, $2.7M

Saw Karate Kid today. The theater was PACKED.

[Shrykespeare]

BOM Sunday Estimates:

Karate Kid - $56M
The A-Team - $26M
Shrek 4 - $15.8M ($210M total)
Get Him to the Greek - $10.1M
Killers - $8.17M
Prince of Persia - $6.58M
Marmaduke - $6M
Sex and the City 2 - $5.53M
Iron Man 2 - $4.55M ($299M total)
Splice - $2.86M

Also: Coco Chanel & Igor Stravinsky got great PTA, higher than both Karate Kid and A-Team. No word yet on Winter's Bone.

[Shrykespeare]

Box Office Mojo has just updated their Sunday Estimates, including Winter's Bone. As it stands, here is how the Top 5 and PTA will shake out:

Top 5:
5 points - Karate Kid
4 points - The A-Team
3 points - Shrek Forever After
2 points - Get Him to the Greek
1 point - Killers

PTA:
5 points - Winter's Bone
4 points - Coco Chanel & Igor Stravinsky
3 points - Karate Kid
2 points - The A-Team
1 point - Shrek Forever After

User Ratings (new films):
The A-Team - 7.5
The Karate Kid - 5.1
Winter's Bone - 8.3
Coco Chanel & Igor Stravinsky - 6.2
Kings of the Evening - 7.4

SOOOO glad I grabbed Winter's Bone!

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I'm not happy Karate Kid beat A-Team, even though I knew it would happen. I am happy about those IMDb scores though.

[transformers2]

I am honestly surprised has to how well The Karate Kid did. The A-Team did around what I expected.