SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/4

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/4

Post by Shrykespeare »

It's been a good summer so far, for the most part. Not necessarily in terms of film quality, which, if I'm being honest, hasn't blown my skirt up – yet. But I've maintained a fairly solid batting average when it comes to predicting, and for those of you who actually LISTENED to me... well done! There's nothing I hate more than leading you down the garden path, which is something I did on a regular basis 2-3 months ago with my PTA picks. I can only hope that my relatively hot streak continues.

Today, we talk about the movies that kick off the month of June. And my job gets very difficult this week, as we have not two, not three, but FOUR films debuting in wide release this Friday. And not just wide release (which technically means 1,000 theaters or more), but all four will be shown in the neighborhood of 2,500-3,000 screens, according to Box Office Mojo. The last time this happened was on November 6, 2009, which heralded the released of Disney's A Christmas Carol (3,683), The Box (2,635), The Fourth Kind (2,527) and The Men Who Stare at Goats (2,443). The only one of these films that got anywhere near “passable” was Goats, while the other three were flat-out awful. Carol was the only one of the four, not surprisingly, to make a splash at the box office.

Fox, Universal, Lionsgate and Warner Bros. are four of the bigger studios out there, but when you release so much new stuff simultaneously when there are still, let's face it, a lot of competition out there from the May movies, pretty much anything can happen. And it makes the art of prognostication a damn nightmare. So for those of you who are hanging on my every word (yes, both of you), let me just say that my margin for error is a lot higher this week.

Given the fact that Shrek Forever After dropped less than 40% in its second week, as well as the fact that it will still be spending another two week in most of the nation's 3D and IMAX theaters, I think it's safe to say that it will pull in somewhere in the neighborhood of $25 million in its third weekend. Do any of the June 4 releases have the moxie to top that number? Well, if any of them do, it would probably be Marmaduke, a live-action adaptation of the classic comic strip. And when I say “classic”, I mean it: Brad Anderson created the original “Marmaduke” in 1954, and it is still syndicated in thousands of newspapers today.

Of course, if you're not an aficionado of the funny papers, let me fill you in: the character of Marmaduke is a very large dog – a Great Dane, to be more precise – that, while playful and mischievous, tends to leave a path of destruction in his wake. Perhaps not coincidentally, this character in the movie is being voiced by Owen Wilson, who was the (human) star of the last big “dog” movie, Marley and Me, whose canine character had a similar penchant for mayhem.

Of course, the similarities between Marmaduke and Marley end right there. This is a family comedy, where the dogs (and other animals) TALK, which puts it in the same company as Beverly Hills Chihuahua, a film that overachieved in October of 2008, raking in $94 million and is spawning a (noooooo!) sequel, which is in the works right now. Bottom line: if that film can draw that much business, it's a fair bet Marmaduke can too. It, too, has a decent cast, including Emma Stone, George Lopez, Kiefer Sutherland, Steve Coogan, Fergie, Christopher Mintz-Plasse (Mc'Lovin!), and two of the Wayans Brothers (Marlon and Damon Jr.). Lee Pace, Judy Greer and William H. Macy play some of the humans caught in the path of the tornado that is Marmaduke.

The plot? Well, it's pretty much irrelevant, as the humor seems to be all slapstick, scatological and, you know, the novelty of animals TALKING. And dancing. Yes, dancing. Just over 3,000 theaters will be showcasing this film, but will that be enough to stop Shrek Forever After from winning a third straight weekend? I'm going to go out on a limb and say yes, but it will be close. Little kids will eat this film up, little kids that have presumably already seen Shrek. Therefore, I will predict an opening three days of $31 million, with minute drops in coming weeks. I also predict eight or nine Top 5 points, a few PTA and an incredibly average Rating (currently at 5.4 but with only 53 votes). And if those numbers hold true, it might be worth spending $13 on it in the June Ultimate leagues. It's certainly worth that same amount in Box Office, where you don't have to worry about User Rating.

Up next we have Get Him to the Greek, the latest R-rated comedy to be released by Universal from the Judd Apatow camp. The king of raunchy comedies from the past decade is co-producing this film, which is kind of a spin-off of 2008's Forgetting Sarah Marshall. It reunites director Nicholas Stoller with one of the stars of that film, English funnyman Russell Brand, reprising his role as rock star Aldous Snow. Also starring is Apatow regular Jonah Hill (who was also in Sarah Marshall but not playing the same role here).

To put it mildly, things have not gone well for Snow since breaking up with Sarah. After doing a record about the plight of Africans, the horrible across-the-board reviews effectively kill his career and his marriage, and he descends into drugs and alcohol. Meanwhile, his record label has lost a ton of money, so the label's exec (a hilarious Sean “Diddy” Combs, basically playing himself) pools his team for ideas. Aaron Green (Hill), a lowly intern, proposes having Snow do a 10th-anniversary show at the illustrious Greek Theater in Los Angeles, and "Puffy" jumps at the chance.

Of course, if you've seen the trailer or even just read the film's title, you'll know that nothing is ever that simple. Transporting a drugged-out, wasted, bitter rock star from London to Los Angeles on a moment's notice is probably not as easy as it sounds, but it sure can be fun to watch! Drugs, booze, debauchery, it'll be like Superbad and a road-trip movie combined!

I've read both of the reviews currently at RT (one good, one bad). The better of the two says that Greek is very funny, typical of Apatow fare, but is somewhat lesser than Sarah Marshall was. It also says that Brand and Hill carry the film quite well, calling Brand “Jack Sparrow without the reluctant heroism” and saying that Hill is “setting himself up as this generation's John Candy.”

If you remember, Sarah Marshall did quite respectably in 2008, pulling in $63 million and seven Top 5 points in an April release. But June is not April, and I think there's just too much going on for an R-rated comedy which has been advertised only sparingly to really make a huge splash. I think it will duel last week's debuts, Sex and the City 2 (which I imagine will drop about 60%) and Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (about 50%) for third place. In all, I envision a $15 million opening weekend for Get Him to the Greek, along with 1-2 Top 5 points, maybe one PTA, and a Rating in the low 7's. Probably not worth $11 in either league.

On the other hand, Killers (which, along with Greek, will be bowing in about 2,700 locations), has been advertised remarkably well; I have seen non-stop commercials and trailers for this film for a solid month now, which is rather unusual for a release from Lionsgate, whose films often tend to slip under the radar. Director Robert Luketic (Legally Blonde, The Ugly Truth) helms this action-comedy, which looks like a more lighthearted version of Mr. And Mrs. Smith.

The story: a recently-single woman named Jen (Katherine Heigl), while on vacation with her parents (Tom Selleck, Catherine O'Hara), meets a handsome young man named Spencer (Ashton Kutcher), and the two soon fall in love. Fast-forward to the point when the happy couple are now co-habitating, and things seem to be going perfectly for both. Of course, what Jen doesn't know is that Spencer is actually an operative of the CIA, who spends his days chasing and offing criminals... and one of their good friends is actually a hitman who has been contracted to kill them. (Don't'cha just HATE when that happens?!)

Now, Heigl and Kutcher may not pack the same punch as Brangelina (or Arnold and Jamie Lee, for that matter), but that doesn't mean they don't have their fans. Many of my peers are calling for Killers to tank badly, but my outlook is significantly less bleak. I think Killers has $16M/$50M in it easily. It will have to wrestle three other films for any Top 5 points, however, and it's not a lock for PTA or good User Rating points either, so I probably wouldn't spend a whole $10 on it in either league. Of course, once you get under $10, your Box Office prospects go way down, so take that into consideration as well.

Fourth up is Splice, which seems to have a few things going for it that the others don't: namely, the fact that it is preceded into theaters by very good word-of-mouth and favorable reviews. This sci-fi/horror flick from Warner Bros. currently has an outstanding score of 83% at RT (10/12), and holds a terrific User Rating at IMDb (7.9 with nearly 700 votes). The downside is, it's already been postponed once (it was originally scheduled to be released last fall), and it has little or no star power.

Adrien Brody and Sarah Polley star as Clive and Elsa (in a nice little nod to Bride of Frankenstein), two rockstar geneticists who have achieved fame by hybridizing different animal speces. But now, they want to do something new and exciting, by splicing human DNA with animal DNA... which most assuredly violates every ethical standard in the scientific community, of course, but hey, you can't make an omelet without something something.

They name their creation “Dren” (played as an adult by French actress Delphine Chaneac), and its propensity for rapid growth and development seems to be only matched by its intelligence. And, of course, you know what that means... containment becomes a problem, and a lethal one. Think Species meets Rosemary's Baby, courtesy of creature-effects wizard Howard Berger, who gets full marks by many critics who reviewed this film at RT.

Even with all this, though, there's just too much competition for every film to flourish, and though it looks like a good film, quite different from all the other summer fare, I have to predict Splice will fall short, perhaps even miss the Top 5 all together. I foresee $12 million in its first three days, en route to about $35 million if its lucky. Still, it will cost you only $5 in either of the June leagues, which, in terms of dollar potential, puts it leaps and bounds ahead of most of the other films with a similar price tag.

This week's only limited-release film is Ondine, from Paramount Vantage. It is helmed by Neil Jordan, who won an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay in 1992 for The Crying Game. It tells the story of an Irish fisherman named Syracuse (Colin Farrell) who is surprised to discover a beautiful young woman entangled in his fishing net one day.

Syracuse takes in (and taken with) the woman (Alicja Bachleda) – who calls herself “Ondine”, which apparently means “from the water” - and she immediate forms a bond with him, along with his young disabled daughter (Alison Barry), who believes that she is a “selkie”, a figure from Irish folklore not unlike a mermaid, who leaves the sea to walk on dry land. Of course, rational people would dismiss this as nonsense, but there's no denying that Ondine possesses remarkable rapport with marine life.

Ondine has gotten less-than-stellar reviews at RT (only 11/23 positive), but it does have a good User Rating (7.1 with 500 votes). It only costs $4 in June Ultimate leagues, but try as I might, I can't discern just how many theaters will be showing this film come Friday, so picking this film for your slate is a big gamble.


My predictions for the weekend of June 4-6, 2010:

1. Marmaduke - $31 million
2. Shrek Forever After - $25 million
3. Killers - $16 million
4. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time - $16 million
5. Get Him to the Greek - $15 millon
6. Sex and the City 2 - $13 million
7. Splice - $12 million
8. Iron Man 2 - $10 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, six more films take the stage, including: The A-Team, an action movie based on the 80's TV show of the same name; The Karate Kid, a reboot of the 80's franchise starring Jaden Smith and Jackie Chan; as well as limited-release features Winter's Bone, Coco Chanel and Igor Stravinsky, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Undead, and Kings of the Evening.

Later!






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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/4

Post by Buscemi »

Ondine is being released by Magnolia. Paramount dropped the film after they folded the Vantage division last summer.

Meanwhile while I think your one and two look right, I think third will be a dogfight between Get Him To The Greek and Splice. Get Him To The Greek has Apatow involved but Russell Brand isn't very popular in the US. Splice has the positive reviews and quality leads but is a pickup from Canada that might not bring people in. Killers is an expensive dud while Sex and the City 2 and Prince Of Persia will suffer drops over 60%.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/4

Post by J.I. »

I don't see Marmaduke going that high. Its got too much competition, its not being marketed very well, and it will appeal to no one outside of the kids, and they don't even know about the comic.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/4

Post by Buscemi »

Beverly Hills Chihuahua had no appeal outside of kids and look how that did.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/4

Post by J.I. »

Yeah but the Beverly Hills Chihuahua trailer was really well liked by kids. I heard that song from the preview all the time. Marmaduke on the other hand, doesn't seem to draw any reaction from kids.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/4

Post by J.I. »

My predictions for the openers after seeing the tracking numbers:

Killers $18 million
Get Him to the Greek $16 million
Marmaduke $13 million
Splice $9 million

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/4

Post by Buscemi »

Killers won't get near $20 million. The buzz is toxic on it and the film won't be screened to critics. $15 million would be a surprise especially since audiences will simply wait for Knight and Day. It's like how The Losers bombed because audiences wanted The A-Team more.

Get Him To The Greek looks about right but Russell Brand and Jonah Hill aren't stars. Also the ads haven't been the best so far.

I'll put Marmaduke at $15 million now but it could surprise like Diary Of A Wimpy Kid. I know some of you have been saying that no one knows of the comic strip but it is still published every day in newspapers. It's pretty easy to find in the funny pages.

Splice will get above $10 million.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/4

Post by undeadmonkey »

Grant it, i'm actually a little hesitant to bet against shryke at this point, but those numbers look a lot more realistic.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/4

Post by numbersix »

I'm with Boosch, Killer will scrape 10 mil opening weekend if it's lucky. there has just been zero buzz and the stars are no longer big enough. Combine that with Greek, which is it competition in terms of target audience, and it's going to be another weak weekend overall. Marmaduke is the only one that wil perform decently, and I expect it to make close to 20 mil

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/4

Post by W »

I have no idea what is going to happen this weekend. Though I'm horrible at predicting numbers, I usually have some inkling that something is going to be big or small, but this weekend everything looks like it could perform awful and everything looks like it could surprise. Same thing next weekend with A-Team and Karate Kid. If this continues much longer, I'm going to go crazy. At least in two weeks we get Toy Story.
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