SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/28

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Shrykespeare
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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

“Better to be lucky than good.” Honestly, dear readers, I'm as surprised as you are that my lowball estimates of this summer's first three potential blockbusters' opening weekends have been nearer to the actual mark as many more learned predictatory pundits. But truthfully, it does give me a sense of empowerment, knowing that my numbers for Iron Man 2 were only off by 7% and my numbers for Shrek Forever After were only off by 6%. Guess you guys should start listening to me, eh? Eh? Hey! Where are you going?!

Several good points were raised on the boards this week as to why May's numbers, while respectable, haven't been through the roof. My favorite theory is that because the numbers for January-through-April were so high ABOVE the norm (thanks largely to Avatar and Alice in Wonderland, but also included successes like How to Train Your Dragon, Clash of the Titans, Date Night, Shutter Island, Book of Eli, Percy Jackson, and quite a few others) that the May movies, for all their hype, just aren't quite as special by comparison as they should be. Conclusion: either the films spanning the gap between winter and summer have come up in the world, or the summer films have come down (or both). One wonders if anything can hold an audience's full attention for more than a couple of weeks in the coming months.

But, one week at a time. For the first time this summer, two films will debut on the same day where BOTH titles definitely have major blockbuster potential. The more notable of the two films is Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time, which is not only the latest action-adventure-fantasy epic generated by Walt Disney Studios, but is also the latest film to be adapted from a very popular video game.

Directed by Mike Newell (Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire), Prince of Persia stars Hollywood hunk Jake Gyllenhaal in the lead role. It's been an interesting decade for Jake since playing Donnie Darko, having been in such critically acclaimed films as Brokeback Mountain, Zodiac and most recently Brothers. But he's no stranger to big-budget films either, having been one of the integral parts in what made The Day After Tomorrow such a big hit. Which is a pretty good resume, but are we really ready to take him seriously as a full-fledged action star too? I remain unconvinced... for now.

Jake stars as Dastan, who starts off very Aladdin-style as a street urchin in the Persian empire of the 6th century. But after committing a heroic act in front of the king, he quickly goes from rags to riches as the king's heir (mostly because he does not favor either of his own sons as possible successors). Not long after, Dastan teams up with the lovely Princess Tamina (Clash of the Titans' Gemma Arterton) to combat the evil plans of the villainous Nizam (Sir Ben Kingsley, right in his element), which involve stealing a dagger that gives its bearer the power to turn back time. Oh damn, I feel a Cher song coming on.... (smack)

It's a simple formula. Disney + May release + swords and sandals = an almost surefire hit. It may not do as well as National Treasure did, but it should do just fine... comparatively speaking, that is. With Jerry Bruckheimer as a co-producer, you can believe that the budget for this film is huge, and you'd be right... this film purportedly cost $200 million to make. And while I'm sure between domestic grosses, foreign grosses and DVD sales, it will more than make it all back, this game is concerned only with domestic grosses, and honestly, I find it hard to believe it will make much more than 60% of its budget back on our shores.

If the biggest success stories of this year (Avatar, Alice in Wonderland, How to Train Your Dragon) have taught us anything, it's that movies that appeal to a wide range of moviegoers, regardless of whether they have huge opening weekends or not, tend to have very good legs. (Hell, Dragon stayed in the Top 5 for, what, SIX weeks?!) Now, whether Shrek Forever After follows suit remains to be seen, but I am betting it will.

Prince of Persia will be debuting in about 3,500 theaters this Friday, which is significantly less than Shrek Forever After (and also does NOT have the benefit of 3D and IMAX), so, factoring in a 40% drop or less for SFA, means that a #1 finish for PoP is probably not in the cards. I will predict an OW of $38 million for Disney's latest, with small drops coming in successive weekends.

In the May leagues (both versions), this will only run you $20. For that price, you may end up gleaning nine or ten Top 5 points, a handful of PTA, and a fair-to-decent User Rating (currently 6.7 with almost 3,000 votes). $100 million is more than likely, so that makes this a pretty good bye if you can fit it into your slate. It's certainly got more high-dollar potential than Robin Hood, as well as anything else coming in the next two weeks.

Every summer has more than its fair share of chick flicks, but none are chickier (sic) than Sex and the City 2, which continues the epic saga of four New Yorkers (played, once again, by Sarah Jessica Parker, Kristin Davis, Cynthia Nixon and Kim Cattrall) that began in the long-running HBO TV series and exploded onto the big screen in 2008, raking in $152 million for its troubles.

Between, you and me, I hate trying to gauge the possibilities of films like this. I don't like films like this, and you couldn't pay me to see them. But many of them invariably end up doing well, and SatC2 probably will too. I won't waste your time by talking about the plot, because from what I've read, it's pretty much the same dance as before, it's just on a different floor (Abu Dhabi, to be precise... yes, that's right, “The City” has now gone global).

Point is, millions of women (and gay men, I imagine) adored the TV series, and they all showed up in droves to support the first SatC movie, and I don't imagine anything short of a 2-for-1 shoe sale at Nordstrom's would stop them from catching the sequel. So I'll just end this extraordinarily condensed critique by predicting a 30-40% “sequel” drop, based on the usual suspects (for films that are more character-driven than F/X-driven): disinterest, bad reviews, fatigue, whatever suits you.

$100 million is what I'll peg for this film, along with five Top 5 points, maybe a couple of PTA, and a User Rating that really won't do you any favors (the first SatC finished just north of 5.0). It will run you $24 in both versions of the May leagues, so do I really have to spell out whether you want this on your roster? I'd say a big fat Noth... erm, I mean “no”.

And now, a little bit about this weekend's two limited-release features.

Micmacs ($4 Ult) – I was actually quite surprised to see a trailer for this in front of The Losers a few weeks ago, especially given that the AMC Theaters that I normally attend is not the kind of place that usually showcases foreign films... and especially not foreign films that are as “out there” as this one looks to be.

Directed by acclaimed French helmer Jean-Pierre Jeunet (A Very Long Engagement, Amelie), Micmacs (full name: Micmacs a tire-larigot or “non-stop madness”) is billed as “a satire on the world arms trade”. It stars Dany Boon as Bazil, a video-store employee who accidentally takes a bullet in a drive-by shooting. After being released from the hospital and finding himself homeless and broke, he falls in with an unusual (but good-humored) assortment of misfits who live in a local scrap-dump.

If you are familiar with Jeunet's work (which I'm not), you may be familiar with his unique sense of whimsy, which, if the trailer is anything to go by, is out in full force in this film. From a layman's point of view, it looks like it has elements of Terry Gilliam and Tim Burton (without the monster budget but losing none of the childish fun) in it, which could definitely appeal to the art-house crowd.

According to Sony Pictures Classics' website, Micmacs will be opening this Friday in New York City only, with an expansion to five other major cities next week. That could spell plenty of PTA, or at least enough to justify its $4 price tag. It certainly won't hurt that the film has gotten terrific reviews (40/50 for 80% at RT) and has a very respectable Rating (7.3 on IMDb with nearly 2,000 votes). You could certainly take bigger chances than this with what's available.

Survival of the Dead ($4 Ult) – Well, if you didn't already know that this is the latest zombie film by 40-year-veteran George A. Romero, just the words “of the Dead” should be a (you know what) giveaway. (Ahem.) Well, go with what you're good at, I guess. Despite the failure of 2007's Diary of the Dead to draw an audience, Romero brings us another gorefest that should delight that very small niche audience consisting solely of zombiephiles and Fangoria subscribers.

The plot (as if that mattered): local residents of a small island off the coast of Delaware are split by different points of view; namely, one clan wants the undead epidemic to be wiped out entirely, while the other favors the idea of keeping their loved ones “alive” until a cure is found. Of course, when the squadron of National Guardsmen (who survived Diary) wander into the picture, all hell breaks loose... and boy, will it be bloody.

What needs to be said? Unknown actors, a shoestring budget, more same-old-same-old from George A. I'm not sure how many theaters will be showing Survival this weekend, but regardless, I wouldn't take it. As I said, Diary failed, the critics have lambasted this film (42% on RT), and why would you saddle yourself with a 5.5 User Rating? Pass.


My predictions for the weekend of May 28-30, 2010:

1. Shrek Forever After - $46 million
2. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time - $38 million
3. Sex and the City 2 - $33 million
4. Iron Man 2 - $16 million
5. Robin Hood - $10 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we begin the June-August season with five new titles, including FOUR getting wide-release, including: Marmaduke, a live-action adaptation of the classic comic strip starring Owen Wilson as the voice of the massive pooch; Get Him to the Greek, a raunchy comedy starring Jonas Hill and Russell Brand; Killers, an action comedy starring Ashton Kutcher and Kathering Heigl; and Splice, a sci-fi/horror film starring Adrien Brody and Sarah Polley. The one limited-release film on tap is Ondine, a romantic drama starring Colin Farrell.

Later!





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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/28

Post by Buscemi »

Early estimates have been far more favorable to Sex and the City 2. Also, word of mouth for Prince Of Persia has been lukewarm at best right now and the early international numbers have apparently been disappointing.

I'll predict

1. Sex and the City 2 $46 million ($80 million 5-day)
2. Shrek Forever After $42 million ($55 million 4-day)
3. Prince Of Persia $28 million ($36 million 4-day)
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/28

Post by W »

No idea numbers wise, but I think it's going to be Sex 2, then PoP, then Shrek.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/28

Post by Ron Burgundy »

Yeah i think so too W,

probs 50M for Sex2
about 25M for Prince
and 22M for Shrek

but i cant imagine i will get closer to 'Speare', you have been on fire lately mate! Better get those Over/Under numbers right then eh?
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/28

Post by J.I. »

Oh crap. Shryke, are you trying to destroy the box office with your extremely accurate yet very low predictions? But really, Sex and the City 2 should be too frontloaded to open that low (even if it does open Thursday).

And to answer your question about whether the films between winter and summer are going up or the summer movies are going down, I say its the other months going up. This is the second year in a row that JANUARY of all months has made over $1 billion. Last year we had 5 movies before summer break $100 million, the most ever (yet it happened again this year), and we had three more $100 million grossers in September and October.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/28

Post by Buscemi »

In the UK, Prince Of Persia gets beat by....STREETDANCE 3-D! Disney must be embarassed having its big-budget tentpole release beaten by a low-budget Step Up clone.

And it wasn't even close. StreetDance did 2.5 million pounds while Prince Of Persia did just 1.4 million pounds (needing 9,000 pounds just to stay out of third place against Robin Hood).

Who wouldn't be surprised if StreetDance 3-D got US distribution in the next few weeks? (The US is one of the few countries where the film doesn't have distribution but Alliance has signed on for Canadian distribution.)
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/28

Post by silversurfer19 »

Street Dance seems to be looking like it will be very popular over here too. I think it's only inevitible it will receive a release in the US going by the obsessive nature of the people who seem to really want to see these kind of movies. Doesn't look good for Prince Of Persia, though I think this has been kind of expected for a while. The trailer looks pretty poor, I still don't think Jake has won over audiences as a leading man yet, not to mention it is a video game adaptation. And we all know how successful they have been in the past!

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/28

Post by transformers2 »

I can speak on behalf of the gaming community on Prince Of Persia. Fans of the game are PISSED by what Disney has done to it. They did some of the most garbage casting I have ever seen. When I first heard Jake Gylanhall was playing the lead my mind was blown. They get a fucking white dude to play a Saudi Arabian Prince? All I could think of was the Chapelle's Show skit "Mooney at the Movies" where they were talking about The Last Samuari and Mooney goes on a rant talking about having Cruise play The Last Samurai is just stupid and immoral and then he talks about his movie that he wants made "The Last Ni**a on Earth" starring Tom Hanks.

Sorry for the rant on Gylanhall but when I think of the "Prince Of Persia I don't think of Donnie Darko playing him. On top of the awful casting they pretty muchcompletley changed the story and the trailer is beyond awful. I am calling/hoping for a flop on Prince Of Persia. I think it will finish in 3rd at best. Sex and The City 2 will murder it at the Box Office.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/28

Post by undeadmonkey »

I must disagree about you being able to speak about the gaming community. I LOVE the games and im not PISSED by what disney has done. (well not yet, hah) First of all, the reason video game movies havent done so well is because their plots are really thin. They might have a great premise but they usually never have enough to carry a whole film. Think about it, if they kept the exact same thing as the the game, we would have dastan going through a deserted city, unlocking contraptions, fighting sand monsters, saying the same thing every 5 phrases, fight a few bosses and have the princess show up randomly. you cant make that into a movie. They have to add and change stuff. As long as they keep the heart of the story I think they'll have done a good job story wise.

As for the casting, i'm not a huge fan of Gyllenhaal. but i dont see no reason to complain about race. The producers and casting directors were probably not even thinking about it, all they thought about was 'who can we get that might be bankable enough so we dont lose money'. Do you know any huge Saudi Arabian stars, that have been known to bring in the masses? Plus, it's a bug budget tentpole summer movie meant only for popcorn entertainment, you really going to nitpick and say 'oh he's too white'?

PS, i dont mean to offend you or anyone. It just kinda irks me when people want every little single thing to be politically correct and that goes for everything, not just a mindless movie that will be forgotten about in a few months.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/28

Post by Buscemi »

What are the two biggest movies of all-time? Avatar and Titanic. Did they have big names in the leads? No they didn't.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/28

Post by undeadmonkey »

yes they did, both dicaprio and worthington were pretty big already before each of their respective movies.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/28

Post by transformers2 »

No offense taken UDM. That is a very valid arguement.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/28

Post by numbersix »

Sorry UDM, but I disagree. While both Worthington and Di Caprio were in films previously, they were certainly not famous, and the average movie-goer did not know who they are prior to those movies.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/28

Post by silversurfer19 »

I'm pretty sure most people knew DiCaprio as the guy from Romeo And Juliet, not to mention I already knew him from Basketball Diaries and This Boy's Life. And while Worthington wasn't uber famous, Terminator 4 brought in enough money to suggest people would recognise him from that.

Having said that, these films were not successful because of their stars. They were successful because they were James Cameron movies with massive budets, big special effects and very effective marketing strategies.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/28

Post by undeadmonkey »

Don't forget, DiCaprio had also been on Growing Pains and What's eating Gilbert Grape, both somewhat huge at the time.

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