Screening The Releases - May 3rd

[Screen203]

Last Week

Closing off a rough April, Challengers debuted in first to an okay 15 m. While this isn't a great result in comparison to its budget, it had some limitations as to audience pull from the beginning, especially considering that it revolves around tennis, which has never led to much success at the box office. WOM is a bit difficult to gauge at this point, but with a lack of competition for the target audience until Back To Black, it should be able to hold well enough to get to 50 m at least. In second was another wide opener, Unsung Hero, which grossed an okay, although very front-loaded, 7 m. Due to the front-loading and unpredictable patterns of religious films, legs could go either way. That being said, it should reach 20 m at least. In third is Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, which has stabilized a bit following a few harsh drops. It dropped just 25 percent this weekend to gross 7 m, for a total of almost 182 m so far. Unless it is hit super hard by the new releases over the next few weeks, it should be able to reach 200 m in total. In fourth is Civil War, which also had a decent hold, dropping 38 percent to gross 7 m, for a total of 56 m so far. While it may not turn a huge profit, it will be Alex Garland's highest grossing film as director, and is A24's second highest grosser. It should finish with 65-70 m. In fifth, Abigail grossed about 5 m, dropping 49 percent from its opening to gross almost 19 m so far. With positive WOM and no wide-release competition until The Strangers, it should be able to close with about 30-35 m. Outside the Top 5, Boy Kills World flopped with about 1.5 m.

On the PTA side of things, The Feeling... grossed 7 k in 2 theaters. In second, Challengers grossed 4 k in almost 3,500 theaters. In third, Unsung Hero grossed about 2.5 k in around 2,800 theaters. Godzilla X Kong followed in fourth with about 2 k in around 3,300 theaters. In fifth, Civil War grossed almost 2 k in about 3,500 theaters.

This Week

Note - The re-release of The Phantom Menace is not included in the game, but will very likely place in both the Top 5 and PTA parts of the game.

The Fall Guy



Hype around this has seemed to die out significantly since its buzzy SXSW premiere. I think there are several things holding it back - movies about movies can be a difficult sell, and the marketing makes it unclear what audience it is aimed at (Is it an action movie? A rom-com? A mystery-thriller-comedy in the vein of previous Ryan Gosling film The Nice Guys?). I also feel like moving it to May was a mistake that hurt the marketing campaign - IMO, it would have done better in April. That being said, there are some things going for it. Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt are both well-liked, and there has been a drought of wide-appeal movies as of late. If WOM is strong, it could have solid legs, but I'm predicting a under-performance for now.

I expect an OW of 28 m, and a total of 100 m.

It will get you 12-17 Top 5 points, 2-3 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

I wouldn't recommend taking it in Box Office, but it's not a horrible choice in Ultimate.

Tarot



This will probably do similar business with past horror/thrillers released in early May. I think that the concept could have some appeal to horror fans, even though (IMO) the movie looks pretty bad. That being said, it likely won't review well, and legs should be short with The Strangers coming out soon.

I expect an OW of 10 m, and a total of 25 m.

It will get you 3-5 PTA points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

I Saw The TV Glow



This is likely to do pretty well in limited release. We're All Going To The World's Fair was acclaimed, and this has seemingly matched the level of acclaim that received. A24 is behind it as well, and the trailer seemed to get a solid amount of buzz when it was released (the trailer being attached to prints of Civil War should help as well). That being said, it likely will not have a lot of mainstream appeal.

I expect an OW PTA of 30 k, and a total of 5 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 7-12 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office, but it's not a bad choice in Ultimate.

Evil Does Not Exist



This should have a solid PTA as well. It is from the director of the Oscar-nominated Drive My Car, and reviews have been similarly strong. That being said, Janus Films has only ever had two films gross over 2 m (one of them being the aforementioned Drive My Car), so long-term prospects are iffy, even though it should start strong.

I expect an OW PTA of 20 k, and a total under 1 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 4-10 PTA points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office, and there may be better options in Ultimate.

Wildcat



This should have an okay opening, but probably won't do much in expansion. Reviews have been poor, but the subject matter, matched with the curiosity factor of Ethan Hawke directing/Maya Hawke starring should lead to a decent PTA.

I expect an OW PTA of 15 k, and a total under 1 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 3-4 PTA points, and a score of 5 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Top 5

The Fall Guy - 28 m
Star Wars: The Phantom Menace Re-Release - 10 m
Tarot - 10 m
Challengers - 8 m
Civil War - 5 m

PTA

I Saw The TV Glow - 30 k
Evil Does Not Exist - 20 k
Wildcat - 15 k
The Fall Guy - 7 k
Star Wars: The Phantom Menace Re-Release - 4 k

Next Week

Join transformers for a look over Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes, which should start off better than The Fall Guy.

[Buscemi2]

I think The Fall Guy fails to hit $100 million. The reviews might be there and the leads are longtime members of the Hollywood "in crowd" but industry movies rarely do well. Also, how many people born after 1980 saw the original TV show?

It might have made more sense to call it Stuntman or something like that.

As for Phantom Menace, Return of the Jedi did incredibly solid numbers during its one week reissue last April. Depending on how wide it goes (Jedi was at 475 theatres), Phantom Menace could take in anywhere from $5 million to $10 million.

And I Saw the TV Glow I feel peters out at $1 million. It feels like only the biggest horror fans saw We're All Going to the World's Fair (I didn't bother with it as I was disappointed to find out it wasn't about the New Orleans World's Fair of 1984) and the trailer was just trying way too hard to appeal to teens. If bored teenagers are going to see a horror film this month, it's Tarot or The Strangers: Chapter 1. I'd expect auditoriums to only have A24 diehards or sad, lonely people holding notebooks of bad poetry written in them.

[transformers2]

I'm standing strong in my belief in The Fall Guy. Universal has promoted the hell out of it, the stock of its leads has never been higher and the WOM should be great. If it clears $30 mil this weekend, it should get to $100+ no problem

[numbersix]

I was hot on Fall Guy up until recently. I figured the Barbie factor would make it a hit. But no on seems to care. Still thinking a 40m opening, but a sharp decline that may make it fall guy short of 100m

[StarLord123]

Fall Guy moved to May 3rd since Universal saw an opportunity to be the summer kickoff film after Disney left that slot up for grabs, and opening 2 weeks before Dune in March probably would've cut its legs more so than opening just before Apes (which was still slated for the 24th back then). This is a rarity brought on by the strikes, as it'll likely be back to regularly scheduled Marvel programming next May.

Not expecting anything too mind-blowing but it should be an enjoyable time at the movies.

[transformers2]

Preview totals:
The Fall Guy $3.15 mil (includes Wednesday night's Dolby/IMAX sneaks)
Tarot $715k

[Buscemi2]

Pretty disappointing numbers for the first movie of the summer. Universal's going to really need word of mouth to save this one.

[undeadmonkey]

It's right on par for prelease tracking, no one was expecting Marvel numbers

[Buscemi2]

After all of the pre-release hype and the word out of SXSW, you would have expected it to do better on Thursday that it did. This is only $250,000 above Civil War's preview numbers, a much grimmer film without a name lead and with an R rating.

It more than likely doesn't hit $30 million this weekend unless that word-of-mouth spreads like wildfire.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

The Fall Guy: A-
Tarot: C-

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
The Fall Guy $28.5 mil
Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace Re-Release $8.1 mil
Challengers $7.7 mil
Tarot $6.5 mil
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $4.5 mil
Civil War $3.6 mil
Unsung Hero $3 mil
Kung Fu Panda 4 $2.4 mil
Abigail $2.3 mil
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $1.8 mil

PTA:
I Saw the TV Glow $29.1k
Wildcat $19.4k
Evil Does Not Exist $15.1k
The Fall Guy $7.1k
Challengers $2.2k

[Buscemi2]

Boy Kills World had the fifth biggest second week drop ever, shedding an astounding 85.3%. I'm still trying to figure out why Lionsgate gave this one such a big push.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.The Fall Guy $27.7 mil
2.Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace Re-Release $8.7 mil
3.Challengers $7.6 mil
4.Tarot $6.5 mil
5.Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $4.5 mil
6.Civil War $3.6 mil
7.Unsung Hero $3 mil
8.Kung Fu Panda 4 $2.5 mil
9.Abigail $2.3 mil
10.Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $1.9 mil

-I Saw the TV Glow $116,340
-Wildcat $58,140
-Evil Does Not Exist $42,752

PTA:
1.I Saw the TV Glow $29,085 (4 theaters)
2.Wildcat $19,380 (3 theaters)
3.Evil Does Not Exist $14,251 (3 theaters)
4.The Fall Guy $6,933
5.The Feeling That the Time for Doing Something Has Passed $2,556 (4 theaters)

-Tarot $2,095

[StarLord123]

Not great coming in nearly $1m below estimates, hopefully it can find an audience over the coming weeks, as Kingdom is the only other PG-13 blockbuster releasing until late June.

[transformers2]

I hope so too, but I'm not optimistic after this weekend's performance.