Screening The Releases - April 12th

[Screen203]

Last Week

After a very strong (at least in comparison to the last few months) March, things seem to be slowing down significantly in April. Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, after shocking everyone with a 80 m opening, took the typical harsh fall that MonsterVerse films tend to do, though it could have been a lot worse. It grossed about 31 m, dropping 61 percent from its OW, for a total of 134.5 m so far. It will likely finish right on the edge of 200 m - its late legs will determine whether it crosses that milestone or not. In second, Monkey Man debuted to an underwhelming 10 m. While not a bad number in a vacuum, especially considering its low budget/aquisition price (it has already out-grossed the totals of other April action titles with heavy festival buzz, such as Hardcore Henry), I feel like much more was expected from it (personally, I expected a similar gross to 87Eleven productions such as Violent Night or Atomic Blonde). An additional concern is the amount of competition headed its way in the next few weeks. It should be able to make it to 25-30 m in total. In third is Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, which dropped 42 percent to gross 9 m, for a total of almost 89 m so far. It should cross 100 m, though not do much more than that, and Sony will likely have to end the Ghostbusters franchise again. In fourth is The First Omen, which is probably the biggest underperformer this weekend. It grossed about 8.5 m this weekend - I feel like the positive reviews should have been released much earlier, as I think we would be looking at a 10 m+ OW if they had. This will probably end up as a 20-25 m grosser in total; horror is still waiting for a breakout hit this year, though I think Abigail looks potentially strong enough to do it. In fifth, Kung Fu Panda 4 grossed almost 8 m, dropping 25 percent from the previous weekend for a total gross of around 166 m. It has already outgrossed Kung Fu Panda 3's unadjusted total, and should match its adjusted total soon. A final total on the border of 200 m should happen here as well. Outside the Top 5, Wicked Little Letters had an okay expansion, grossing close to 1.5 m in 1,000 theaters. While that's not a great number on its own, Wicked Little Letters will likely be the highest grosser of the 2020's for the struggling Sony Pictures Classics, and it should be able to get to 5 m in total.

In terms of PTA, the number one grosser was Housekeeping For Beginners, which grossed about 12 k per each of its 4 theaters it released in. Future potential is hard to gauge, but a total of 1 m is possible. In second was The Beast, which grossed about 11 k, also in 4 theaters. Similar to Housekeeping For Beginners, future potential is hard to gauge. In third was Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, which grossed almost 8 k in nearly 4,000 theaters. La Chimera took fourth place, grossing about 4.5 k in 18 theaters. It expands wider this week, though I don't expect much from it. In fifth is Monkey Man, which grossed about 3.5 k in 3,000 theaters.

This Week

Civil War



This is looking to be A24's biggest opening by far, though long-term prospects may be questionable. Buzz has been strong surrounding it since the trailer came out in December (though not without a fair amount of controversy), and reviews have been surprisingly positive. That being said, there is word that (as seemingly typical for both A24 productions and Alex Garland's films) some of the previews which have been advertising a fast-paced action film are misleading, and this will probably hurt its legs. That being said, it should still be the highest grosser of April.

I expect an OW of 22 m, and a total of 65 m.

It will get you 12-15 Top 5 points, 3-4 PTA points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.

I would say it's worth taking in both Box Office and Ultimate.

Arcadian



This should do solidly by indie horror standards, but it likely won't reach the heights of last month's Late Night With The Devil. Nicholas Cage has had a questionable track record at the box office over the past few decades, though his independent releases typically do 1-3 m. Reviews have been very solid so far, and should help it a bit.

I expect an OW of 1 m, and a total of 3 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Sasquatch Sunset

Warning: This trailer is very NSFW.



This should do okay in limited release, but not much outside of it. It has a solid amount of big names both behind and in front of the camera, but it will very likely have no mainstream appeal. That being said, said names/novel premise will likely lead to an okay limited opening.

I expect an OW PTA of 20 k, and a 1 m total.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 5 PTA points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Food Inc. 2



This is really hard to gauge. While the first one did solid numbers, sequels to documentaries are often a very difficult sell, and buzz on this feels very low. I am also unsure of its release pattern, but I am predicting it as a limited release, with a wide expansion next week just in case.

I expect an OW PTA of 15 k, and a total of 1 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 4-5 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Given the volatile nature of its release, I wouldn't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Top 5

Civil War - 22 m
Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire - 17 m
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - 5 m/
The First Omen - 4 m
Monkey Man - 4 m

PTA

Sasquatch Sunset - 20 k
Food Inc. 2 - 15 k
Civil War - 7 k
The Beast - 6 k
Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire - 4 k

Next Week

There isn't a person slated to to the column for the next two weeks, though I should be able to do the 19th if needed. Whoever does it next week will give their opinions on a slate including several promising new releases, including Abigail.

[Buscemi2]

Word of mouth's going to be dreadful on Civil War, much like it was on Garland's last two. It's not at all like the film the ad campaign promotes it as and those expecting an action film with an obvious slant will hate it while the audience Garland seems to be gunning for (people who still pay attention to the news and are willing to fight for its future) will likely avoid it. The very vocal A24 faithful will love it as they do with everything else from them but those are likely going to be the only defenders.

It should open to $20 million due to the large ad campaign but probably won't even clear $50 million. A24 desperately needs this to be a four-quadrant hit due to the $50 million production budget and ad budget that has to be around the same (possibly more due to the late marketing changes) but this isn't it.

[transformers2]

Civil War did $2.9 mil in previews (Monday's IMAX previews are not included in that total).

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascore:

Civil War: B- (still not the greatest score but it looks like it has defenders outside of the A24 crowd)

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Civil War $25.7 mil
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $15.5 mil
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $5.8 mil
Kung Fu Panda 4 $5.5 mil
Dune: Part Two $4.3 mil
Monkey Man $4.1 mil
The First Omen $3.8 mil
The Long Game/Shrek 2 Re-Release $1.4 mil
Sting $1.2 mil

-Arcadian $481k

PTA:
Sasquatch Sunset $10.3k
Civil War $6.7k
Godzilla x Kong $4k
The Beast $2.2k
Dune: Part Two $1.8k

[Buscemi2]

I have to wonder who decided to release Arcadian on the same day as another well-reviewed dystopian film with no marketing whatsoever. Even the biggest Nicolas Cage fan wouldn't have known this came out on Friday.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Civil War $25.7 mil (Highest-ever OW for A24 as well as their 1st film to top the box office)
2.Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $15.5 mil
3.Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $5.8 mil
4.Kung Fu Panda 4 $5.5 mil
5.Dune: Part Two $4.3 mil
6.Monkey Man $4.1 mil
7.The First Omen $3.8 mil
8.Shrek 2 Re-Release $1.5 mil
9.The Long Game $1.3 mil
10.SUGA Agust D Tour "D Day the Movie" $990,881

-Arcadian $504,937
-Sasquatch Sunset $91,146
-Food Inc. 2 $23,697

PTA:
1.Sasquatch Sunset $10,127 (9 theaters)
2.Civil War $6,699
3.Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $4,039
4.The Beast $2,024 (23 theaters)
5.Dune: Part Two $1,805

-Arcadian $459
-Food Inc. 2 $184 (129 theaters)

[StarLord123]

The Shrek 2 re-release outgrossed the 3 recent Pixar re-releases combined! It shows that there's certainly appetite for Shrek 5.

I haven't been able to go to the movies these past few weeks, but I'm hoping to do a double feature with Abigail and another movie this weekend.

[Buscemi2]

Any locations pulling Civil War after one week? A theatre near me is pulling it after Thursday and replacing it with Love Lies Bleeding after having it on three screens this week.

Either the numbers were really bad at that location or something happened related to a showing that led to this move.

[transformers2]

That's not happening anywhere in these parts. Even if it performed poorly there, pulling the reigning box office champ for a movie that's been out for over a month and didn't even report box office last weekend is a bizarre move.

[Buscemi2]

It's a weird theatre in general. It's in a smaller town and they'll book every religious movie possible, even ones you've never heard of.

It's owned by B&B, which tends to be one of the more politically conservative chains. But interestingly, Civil War is still running at other B&B locations. I really don't know what's going on.