Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/5

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No matter how much audience tastes shift over the years, there's a still place at the table for good old fashioned giant monster action.

Legendary/Warner Brothers' MonsterVerse earned another huge victory this weekend with the $80 mil debut of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. This opening obliterated the $45-55 mil tracking forecast it had coming into the weekend and ended up being the franchise's best opening since the inaugural entry (Godzilla) a decade ago. With this hot start (it ended up topping Dune for the highest WW debut of the year) and terrific exit polling figures that seem to indicate at least semi-strong holds are on the horizon, this certainly won't be the last we hear from these legendary rivals-turned-reluctant allies.

While Godzilla x Kong easily towered over the rest of the competition at the multiplexes (more on that in a minute), the limited sector was quite crowded and competitive. Newcomers Wicked Little Letters and La Chimera embarked in a wicked duel for the limited crown with the former edging out the latter by just under $500 per theater while fellow newcomer On the Adamant and last week's champ Femme also posted solid PTA figures of over $5,700 a piece. Weekends like this reinforce the idea that it's not just high-profile fare from buzzy directors and trendy distributors keeping the lights on in the specialty circuit and the titles hitting singles and doubles in this space are going to play a key part in the continued survival of this essential sector of the cinematic ecosystem.

As for the holdovers, it was mostly good news for everybody. Dune: Part Two cleared $250 mil and only endured a 36% drop despite losing nearly all of its remaining PLF footprint. Kung Fu Panda 4 achieved its own notable benchmark by crossing $150 mil in weekend #4. Both of the previous weekend's indie horror success stories (Immaculate and Late Night with the Devil) spat in the face of the holy weekend by showing incredible resilience for the genre with sub-40% drops that were made possible by the buzz they've built mostly through DIY means.

The lone title that didn't get to bask in the glory of the good vibes was the reigning BO champ Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire. Whether it was to due to the Titans taking out their core audience or simply a case of failing to build the same level of positive WOM as Afterlife, Frozen Empire took an absolute beating as it endured a steep 65% decline from its solid $45 mil debut. It'll look to rebound on this weekend with no new blockbusters entering the fray as it continues its pursuit of $100 mil+.


Wide Releases:
Dev Patel has been kind of radio silent in recent years. The last proper feature he starred in was The Green Knight-which completed production in 2019 before getting released in July 2021 after enduring a lengthy COVID-induced delay and he only recently resurfaced with a supporting role in Wes Anderson's Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar short films. So what has the nearly 34-year old Brit been up to of late? Starring, directing and co-writing an action thriller entitled Monkey Man (Universal)-which is finally set to complete its long journey to release about 48 hours from now.

Initially an independent production backed by Thunder Road and Bron, Monkey Man was acquired by Netflix shortly after it wrapped shooting in March 2021. In typical Netflix fashion, the title sat around completed for ages and eventually, winded up on the auction block reportedly due to the streaming giant's concerns over blowback from its portrayal of a fictional Indian right-wing government. It was there that the film caught the attention of Jordan Peele, who brokered a deal to give it a wide theatrical release through his production company Monkeypaw's first-look deal with Universal after seeing the film.

Peele's championing of Monkey Man has the potential to give his bosses at Universal the type of hit they need right now in this diminished 2024 theatrical landscape. After unleashing the wild trailer right before the Super Bowl, the film smartly continued to ratchet up the buzz by debuting at genre festival SXSW a few weeks back to raves-where it ended up beating out Neon's Babes and Uni's own crowd-pleasing summer blockbuster The Fall Guy for the audience award in the Headliners section. As the release date approaches, the arrow appears to keep only pointing up as the mainstream critical reviews continue to be strong and the initial presales look pretty solid for an original R-rated action movie. While I'm not sure it'll be able to reach the heights of January's surprise hit The Beekeeper, it should be able to do fine business in a month that doesn't have very many mainstream releases with BO upside.
Price: $12 ULT/$12 BO
Predictions: $12-22 mil OW/1-4 PTA/6-11Top 5/low to mid 7 IMDb/ $35-75 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: In a season that appears to be lacking quality mid-range options, something with buzz behind it and a long runway to make money in as Monkey Man is well worth considering in both formats.


Springtime horror frenzy continues this week with The First Omen (20th Century), a prequel to the 1976 classic. As the title infers, the film deals with the uncovering of a sinister conspiracy by an American woman (Nell Tiger Free) working at a Catholic orphanage in Rome and a priest (Ralph Ineson) that leads to the birth of the Antichrist-later known as Damian.

Despite pretty strong early reactions on social media (that as always need to be taken with a grain of salt until the broader range of critical reviews are released on Thursday at noon EST) and an effective marketing campaign that has been surprisingly minimalist for a mainstream horror release, The First Omen appears to be facing an uphill battle at the box office.

For starters, The Omen hasn't been a piece of horror IP that has endured over the years with the previous entry in the series being the (admittedly successful) 2006 remake-which benefited from its brilliantly-timed 6-6-6 release. Then, there's the ongoing issue of Disney utilizing a low ad spend on a title that falls outside of their major IP umbrella with nearly all of the marketing being limited to social media and in-theater trailer placements. Finally, there's the unfortunate coincidence of it being released just 2 weeks after Immaculate-which boasts a similar plot and themes about religion and a woman's bodily autonomy. It could end up getting a late bump from WOM if it's strong enough, but right now, it would be pretty surprising if it got above the low teens for the weekend.
Price: $8 ULT/$7 BO
Predictions: $7-15 mil OW/0-2 PTA/2-7 Top 5/low to mid 6 IMDb/$18-45 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Barring a late surge in buzz, probably not


Limited Releases:
After kneecapping his past two movies with confusingly wide initial releases, the shotcallers at Universal/Focus are finally doing right by Goran Stoleveski with Housekeeping for Beginners (Focus) by giving it a true platform release. This domestic drama about found family and perseverance in the face of grief got great reviews in Venice last fall and was North Macedonia's Entry into last year's Best International Feature. Its status as a foreign language title could hurt it, but it seems like the kind of emotionally-charged story that could find an audience and turn into a nice little arthouse success story for Focus.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions:$25-65k OW/2-9 PTA/0 Top 5/low to mid 7 IMDb/$75-350k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: The potential exists for it to be a quality ULT pick, but it's not a must-have by any stretch.


The Beast (Janus), on the other hand, feels like a much tougher sell. While it does have a pair of recognizable faces in Lea Seydoux and George Mackay in the lead roles, this French sci-fi romance boasts a 2.5 hour runtime, an ambitious storyline that takes place over 3 separate time periods and a respected but tiny distributor handling its release. Its prospects for this weekend are probably alright since it's opening in 4 theaters in the cinephile hubs of NYC and LA, but where goes it from there is anyone's guess.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions:$18-55k OW/1-6 PTA/0 Top 5/mid to high 6 IMDb/$60-225k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Although it could pull the upset for the weekend given the strong likelihood that its opening in less theaters than the Focus-backed feature, it possess less long-term upside and will likely end up being a weaker pick.


Weekend Estimates:
1.Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $35 mil
2.Monkey Man $15 mil
3.The First Omen $10 mil
4.Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $9 mil
5.Dune: Part Two $7 mil

PTA: Godzilla x Kong, Housekeeping for Beginners, The Beast, Monkey Man, The First Omen

Tune in next week when Screen previews a slate that includes the potential final directorial effort from an increasingly polarizing industry veteran, Nicolas Cage's latest low-budget genre effort and the first Sasquatch comedy since Strange Wilderness.

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Civil War won't be Alex Garland's final film. He said previously Men would be and then he announced Civil War was coming. Besides, I'm sure he'll continue trying to out-misanthrope Lars von Trier and Adam McKay by finding something else to declare evil. (Edit: he's co-directing a new film set to start filming next month, with A24 releasing it. Unless he just decided to pull out of the project that's nearing production.)

As for box office, I expect Monkey Man to play pretty well to action fans and potentially stick around throughout the month. Universal possibly has the month's two hits with this and Abigail, the latter being perhaps the month's widest-appealed movie.

Meanwhile with The First Omen, three movies about demonic possession in a two-week span is too much. At best, it plays like a smaller Exorcist: Believer. At worst, it struggles to open to $10 million.

On Housekeeping for Beginners: Focus is basically dumping this one at it failed to get an Oscar nomination. Focus also released the director's two previous films, both of which flopped. It seems as if it's being put out of its misery while Focus, well, focuses on the Mitch Winehouse-approved biopic of his daughter.

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Preview Totals:
Monkey Man $1.4 mil
The First Omen $725k

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Cinemascores:

Monkey Man: B+ (a bit of a disappointing score until you find that the first John Wick got a B)
The First Omen: C (below the 2006 Omen's C+ score)

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Weekend Estimates:
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $31.7 mil
Monkey Man $10.2 mil
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $9 mil
The First Omen $8.4 mil
Kung Fu Panda 4 $7.9 mil
Dune: Part Two $7.2 mil
Someone Like You $3 mil
Wicked Little Letters $1.6 mil
Arthur the King $1.5 mil
Immaculate $1.4 mil

PTA:
The Beast $12k
Housekeeping for Beginners $11.3k
Godzilla x Kong $8k
La Chimera $4.5k
Monkey Man $3.4k

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Extremely disappointing for Monkey Man, given the pre-release buzz. Had it stayed on Netflix, it would have gotten far more response in the first day than Universal managed to get with its lack of push this weekend. The results also question whether if SXSW hype translates to box office. Everything Everywhere All at Once might be the only positive example but that was getting buzz well before its premiere.

Interestingly, it is the most popular title on Letterboxd at the moment.

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Weekend Actuals:
1.Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $31.2 mil
2.Monkey Man $10.1 mil
3.Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $9 mil
4.The First Omen $8.4 mil
5.Kung Fu Panda 4 $7.8 mil
6.Dune: Part Two $7.4 mil
7.Someone Like You $3 mil
8.Arthur the King $1.5 mil
9.Immaculate $1.4 mil
10.Wicked Little Letters $1.3 mil

-Housekeeping for Beginners $47,225
-The Beast $42,823

PTA:
1.Housekeeping for Beginners $11,806 (4 theaters)
2.The Beast $10,706 (4 theaters)
3.Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $7,904
4.La chimera $4,342 (18 theaters)
5.Monkey Man $3,341

-The First Omen $2,475