SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/22

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numbersix
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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/22

Post by numbersix »

The big bois are back, baby. With a generally disappointing Jan and Feb, thanks to everyone finally getting sick of Matthew Vaughn’s paper-thin shtick, and that hilariously awful line about researching spiders in Madame Web, March madness has so far proven positive. Dune Pt 2 has sand-danced its way past the $200m mark, doubling the domestic intake of its predecessor, and Kung-Fu Panda 4 surpassed expectations and has crossed $100m in two weekends. The less we say about Mark Wahlberg, his 4-hour sleep routine, and his dog move that failed to market itself to families, the better. With this weekend, we will see history repeating itself once again, as Dr Manhattan said it:

Image




Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (Sony) is the sequel to Afterlife, Ivan Reitman’s loving tribute to his father Ivan and actor/writer Harold Ramis. Despite the (perhaps unfair) negativity towards the all-female reboot, this modest sequel managed to charm fans of the originals, and make $126 in the domestic box office. This sequel sees the series reset to its New York setting, as some demon is making New York even frostier than normal. Cast new and old don their proton packs to work together to warm the city, and presumably our hearts. As mentioned above, the goodwill towards Afterlife should translate to a better performance for this film, particularly due to being back in NY. It’s a shame it wasn’t opened over Christmas as planned, as that would have resulted in a stronger performance. Here, it’s nestled between a bunch of blockbusters, including next week’s Godzilla x Kong sequel, which may impact repeat viewing. But an opening higher than the previous film’s $44m is surely inevitable. Let’s assume $50m and a final tally of about $130m, or around $100m before the end of this season. Given the $7 price in box office (due to it originally being set to come out at the end of this month), that’s a hell of a return. Same goes for Ultimate, where 9 T5 points, 4-6 PTA points, and a high-6 IMDB score is likely, and all for a measly $8. It's the best value of the entire season, so who ya gonna call? Tranny, to put it on your slate.




Immaculate (NEON) is far from that, according to the reviews. This horror film concerns an American nun who moves to a convent in Italy, only to find herself pregnant, with sinister forces abound. What’s interesting about the film is the test on Sydney Sweeney’s star power. The much-hyped actress from Euphoria and The White Lotus drove Anyone But You to unpredicted box office heights, but wasn’t iconic enough to attract mainstream audiences into the sticky Madame Web. With the reviews being muted, it’s unlikely this will explode, especially with NEON distributing, who are still to find their Hereditary or Lady Bird to propel them to the next level. Expect a sub-5m opening and a final cume at the $10m mark. That’s not quite enough to justify its prices in the game. This film is still-born.


Let’s ignore Luca (Disney), these re-released Pixar movies just prove how powerful streaming platforms are for families.


Femme was due to come out this week, but has been pushed to next.

EDIT - apparently it is out this weekend, in the IFC in New York. Damn you Fandango and your false information. If it does report, it might actually do quite well and register with the LGBTQ+ crowd.




Which leaves us with Late Night with the Devil (IFC). This Australian horror is about a US talk-show host who attempts to unleash a demon live on TV. Inspired by the classic TV mockmentary Ghost Watch (which left a young me traumatised for, let’s say, FOREVER), this little film has been getting great reviews and has picked up awards throughout its horror festival run. However, IFC’s release strategy seems to involve a dump in a hundred or so theatres, so don’t expect any real returns in either Ultimate or BO, even if word-of-mouth is good.


Predictions for the weekend

1. Ghostbusters: Bro-zen Empire - $51m
2. Kung-Phew Panda 4 - $18m
3. Doonbugs Pt 2 - $16m
4. Arthur the King Shit-zu - $4m
5. Immaculate Rejection - $3m

PTA: Ghostbusters, Femme, Ryuichi Sakamoto|Opus, Kung-Fu Panda 4, Dune Pt 2

Join us next week as Tranny analyses the last weekend of the month, and the season, with wide release Godzilla x Kong 2, and limited releases La Chimera, and Wicked Little Letters.
Last edited by numbersix on March 19th, 2024, 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/22

Post by Buscemi2 »

A troubling sign for Frozen Empire, in addition to its overly fan-servicey trailers that give little indication of what the movie's about, is that it hasn't been screened to critics yet. Afterlife probably didn't need good reviews to do well but I believe Frozen Empire needs good reviews to pass the last two Ghostbusters in gross. Another problem is that IMAX auditoriums are going to be able to screen-split Frozen Empire with Dune this weekend. My area is only getting one IMAX matinee showing of Frozen Empire per day while the still-hot Dune gets three shows.

In the end, I think this will be the first Ghostbusters movie to fail to reach $100 million. Who is the audience outside of those angry 80's kids who like to dress up in character and think their expensive toys can catch ghosts?

As for Immaculate, there's been almost no marketing for this and it feels like Neon got involved solely on Sweeney/Euphoria hype. I don't even think it makes $1,000 per theatre.

And Late Night with the Devil is only getting one show a night in my area. Reviews are good but there's been no marketing and IFC cares more about post-theatrical on this one.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/22

Post by transformers2 »

Frozen Empire has been screening for critics for about a week now. The embargo lifts tomorrow morning at 9 EST.

As for Femme, it is releasing this weekend-it's just only playing in NYC before expanding to LA and Chicago next weekend.

Anyways, I agree with six on Ghostbusters. Afterlife got a great reception from audiences and the increased presence of the original cast should keep the nostalgia train running high. If it hits or exceeds its tracking number of $45 mil, it could very well bank $100 mil by the end of the season.

Immaculate is kind of a tricky one to peg. While it should do well for a Neon project since it's getting a high theater count by their standards and Sweeney will bring people out that don't typically go see indie horror movies, it's still likely destined to make only 10-15 mil by the end of its run. Starting the marketing campaign a bit earlier probably would've helped it.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/22

Post by Buscemi2 »

Sweeney fans didn't show for Madame Web. And Anyone but You's success feels like it was more due to there not having been a wide-appealed romantic movie in a long time rather than the leads (case in point: Netflix isn't really pushing Glen Powell's involvement with Hit Man, selling it as a Richard Linklater film instead).

With Immaculate, I'm thinking it grosses less than It Lives Inside. It Lives Inside had more pre-release buzz and an actual marketing campaign but also got bad reviews and few even bothered with it.

Just because you're on Euphoria doesn't mean your movie's going to be a hit. Otherwise, Priscilla and Saltburn would have taken off at the box office and Challengers wouldn't feel like a long-delayed afterthought on MGM's release schedule.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/22

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If Immaculate hits its tracking figure ($5 mil), it will outgross It Lives Inside by the end of the weekend. I'm not bullish on the movie either man, but it's going to be able to clear the bar of $4.7 mil total without incident.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/22

Post by Buscemi2 »

First reviews for Frozen Empire have dropped. Not good so far (47 on Metacritic, with the potential to drop below Afterlife's 45 score).
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/22

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Yes this is not good for the film's legs. Most tracking today has it in the mid 40s. I'm still expecting it to cross 50m but it may struggle to hit $100m if fans react badly.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/22

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Frozen Empire did $4.7 mil in previews, which is in line with Afterlife's performance ($4.5 mil)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/22

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

Frozen Empire: B+
Immaculate: C
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/22

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Weekend Estimates:
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $45.2 mil
Dune: Part Two $17.6 mil
Kung Fu Panda 4 $16.8 mil
Immaculate $5.4 mil
Arthur the King $4.4 mil
Late Night with the Devil/Imaginary $2.8 mil
Love Lies Bleeding $1.6 mil
Cabrini $1.4 mil
Bob Marley: One Love $1.1 mil

PTA:
Femme $15.1k
Ghostbusters $10.4k
Dune $5.1k
Kung Fu Panda $4.4k
Late Night with the Devil $2.7k
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/22

Post by StarLord123 »

I saw Frozen Empire with a large audience yesterday, and the reaction was pretty muted other than some occasional laughs.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/22

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $45 mil
2.Dune: Part Two $17.6 mil
3.Kung Fu Panda 4 $16.5 mil
4.Immaculate $5.3 mil
5.Arthur the King $4.3 mil
6.Late Night with the Devil $2.83 mil
7.Imaginary $2.78 mil
8.Love Lies Bleeding $1.6 mil
9.Cabrini $1.4 mil
10.Bob Marley: One Love $1.1 mil

-Luca Re-Release $558,396
-Femme $17,277

PTA:
1.Femme $17,277
2.Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $10,358
3.Dune: Part Two $5,123
4.Kung Fu Panda 4 $4,337
5.Late Night with the Devil $2,742

-Immaculate $2,268
-Luca Re-Release $402
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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